SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2019 12:15:42 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Lakins did not look good for us and that was consistent with what those who were there before us said.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Mar 26, 2019 12:18:23 GMT -5
Reading these posts just makes me realize how much I am looking forward to the season starting and defending the WS. Tough schedule to start with the first 11 games being on the road although I completely understand as the weather in Boston can suck this time of year. Right?!?!?! I think I’m most excited for Beni and Raffy. I think this is the year Beni crashes the scene as a perennial batting title contender and outside MVP candidate (outside because, you know...Trout and Mookie), and Devers I think is primed for a big leap. And that’s before Pedey’s return, JBJ’s new approach, Eovaldi ramping up his dominance, and the litany of other storylines. Lol...and looking forward to that first road loss where the bullpen coughs one up and half the board goes apoplectic. Gonna be some outrageously good posts this year, especially post-repeat when they down the Cubs in the WS. Beating the Cubs in the WS sounds like the perfect season. I would like to add Erod to the list of exciting guys to watch this year, he has the stuff to be an ace.
|
|
|
Post by huskies15 on Mar 26, 2019 16:31:53 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Lakins did not look good for us and that was consistent with what those who were there before us said. Ugh... hopefully that's just a result of some camp dead-arm but not ideal.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 26, 2019 23:18:03 GMT -5
Right?!?!?! I think I’m most excited for Beni and Raffy. I think this is the year Beni crashes the scene as a perennial batting title contender and outside MVP candidate (outside because, you know...Trout and Mookie), and Devers I think is primed for a big leap. And that’s before Pedey’s return, JBJ’s new approach, Eovaldi ramping up his dominance, and the litany of other storylines. Lol...and looking forward to that first road loss where the bullpen coughs one up and half the board goes apoplectic. Gonna be some outrageously good posts this year, especially post-repeat when they down the Cubs in the WS. Beating the Cubs in the WS sounds like the perfect season. I would like to add Erod to the list of exciting guys to watch this year, he has the stuff to be an ace. Absolutely, I’m not sure why I left him out because he might be the one guy I’m most confident takes the big step. I definitely have some concerns for his health (I think the patellar dislocation is a non-issue, but the ankle sprain/generally creakiness is worrisome), but the big issue for him is aggressiveness in his approach (not letting 0-2 and 1-2 counts turn into 9-pitch walks or bleeders, then getting frustrated). With health, and his now-sufficient experience, as well as entering his historical pitching prime (26-29, when guys really learn to *pitch* vs throw), I think the nibbling stops and the command improves. I love him as a dark-horse Cy candidate; don’t think he’s quite yet a real bet to win, but I’ll bet he gets plenty of down-ballot votes and possibly goes top-10. I’ve said all along, from his AA debut in the system, that he has the “look” of a strong 2/1a. I’m guessing he finishes around 16-8, 3.30, with a K-BB% over 20, and 175-195 innings. And while I wouldn’t “predict” it, I honestly wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he won 20 and put up an ERA around 2.75, with peripherals to match. I think THE big key is turning his SL/CU into a true SL that he can locate and really*bend*. Supposedly that’s in the works, and if he keeps the CU and can steal some strikes with it too, he can up his CH use (which he’s often out of the zone with but has a high whiff rate), especially if the CH command improves enough that he can really work the edges. I think of Ottavino and how he drilled using his SL *in* the zone...batters still couldn’t hit it. ERod’s CH is like that, especially when he gets the FB up. A true, *weaponized* SL (even just a 55-60 instead of a 45-50) makes him SO much more dangerous.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2019 16:47:42 GMT -5
Bring back Ben Taylor! Was just waived by the Indians. Still has an option left and struck out 31.7% and walked 4.1% in AAA for the Indians last season. Kind of crazy that he's been waived twice already. I'm sure there will be a lot of claims placed though.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Mar 29, 2019 8:04:59 GMT -5
Taylor has an option left and the Red Sox have three spots on the 40-man. Unless he's some sort of bad seed it'd be kind of dumb *not* to bring him back.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Mar 29, 2019 8:59:50 GMT -5
Recently released Marlins right-hander Dan Straily has received big league offers from three American League teams, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
Could the Sox be one?
he’d be an option not only for the remainder of the 2019 season but also the 2020 campaign. Because he has four years, 126 days of big league service time under his belt, Straily won’t qualify as a free agent at season’s end and would be controllable for another season via the arbitration process.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 30, 2019 4:28:39 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb
Joe Kelly allows three-run, game-tying homer to first batter he faces in his Dodgers debut. Poster 6.13 ERA in final 48 outings of the 2018 regular season (beginning June 1). Had ERAs over 8.00 in June, July and September. Then received big contract after unreal postseason
|
|
|
Post by patford on Mar 30, 2019 9:15:01 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb Joe Kelly allows three-run, game-tying homer to first batter he faces in his Dodgers debut. Poster 6.13 ERA in final 48 outings of the 2018 regular season (beginning June 1). Had ERAs over 8.00 in June, July and September. Then received big contract after unreal postseason Of course he did. I say that as a long time Joe Kelly booster. The fact is he will always be Joe Kelly and the contract he got is ridiculous.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Mar 30, 2019 9:18:50 GMT -5
Matt Barnes locks down first save as the unofficial closer.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 24, 2019 7:10:51 GMT -5
At this point, offer Kimbrel a contract at one year at 10-12 million.
The season is on the line at this point. You really have zero margin for error here.
If you're out of it by July, you trade him for whatever you can get by then anyways.
You tried to get cute with this dumb plan of bad bullpen arms. It isn't working. Get Kimbrel a job. Get him some of his value back so he can try this all over again with no QO attached.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 24, 2019 7:25:04 GMT -5
At this point, offer Kimbrel a contract at one year at 10-12 million. The season is on the line at this point. You really have zero margin for error here. If you're out of it by July, you trade him for whatever you can get by then anyways. You tried to get cute with this dumb plan of bad bullpen arms. It isn't working. Get Kimbrel a job. Get him some of his value back so he can try this all over again with no QO attached. The problem (one of them, anyway) with this is that there's a pretty miserable track record for guys who've signed after spring training, Greg Holland being a good recent example. Given Kimbrel's on-again, off-again relationship with the strike zone, and how bad he is when he's not hitting it, I'd be pretty worried about expecting him to come in and be the closer right away.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Apr 24, 2019 7:30:29 GMT -5
At this point, offer Kimbrel a contract at one year at 10-12 million. The season is on the line at this point. You really have zero margin for error here. If you're out of it by July, you trade him for whatever you can get by then anyways. You tried to get cute with this dumb plan of bad bullpen arms. It isn't working. Get Kimbrel a job. Get him some of his value back so he can try this all over again with no QO attached. If he’s accept that money he’d be signed right now
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 24, 2019 8:42:27 GMT -5
At this point, offer Kimbrel a contract at one year at 10-12 million. The season is on the line at this point. You really have zero margin for error here. If you're out of it by July, you trade him for whatever you can get by then anyways. You tried to get cute with this dumb plan of bad bullpen arms. It isn't working. Get Kimbrel a job. Get him some of his value back so he can try this all over again with no QO attached. I don't think he is settling for 1 year. And if it is a quick window to determine if they're contenders or not, Kimbrel might be too wild (without a real spring training) to be an asset. If they did offer him that deal and he did accept it I wouldn't be "bothered" by it, but I don't think he would be the savior. I'd hope that he doesn't walk everything in sight. He really didn't have spring training last season and he was never quite himself (or at least the 2017 version) and that would be even worse in 2019. What the Red Sox need are two or three more reliable bullpen arms and you can't really spend $12 million/arm. That's for sure. You look at that pen and it you count on 2 pitchers, have had good results from 2 pitchers (Walden and Workman) where you wonder how long that's going to last for - and the rest of the pen is quite frightful. I don't trust Hembree, Brewer, or Thornburg at all. Those are 3 very replaceable arms. The Sox might be taking a longer look at Lakins. Don't know if his stuff is as good as last year (I'm trying to remember what Chris H mentioned). Maybe we see Hernandez and Feltman or even Houck later on, but with Hernandez, it's hard to rely on his being a key component. I would think he's going to have some serious control issues. I think he's going to need time to improve. Maybe Feltman becomes a key component and at some point Velazquez and/or Johnson return to the bullpen. Honestly I just want the Sox to find some relievers who don't suck. An effective Kimbrel would bump Braser out of the closer-ish role he's in and put him more in the 7th or 8th inning. But at this point I'd happy take a couple of lower tier 6th or 7th inning arms who don't suck and let Braser and Barnes continue doing what they've been doing. I do think they will need a high leverage arm, though because they have to have other alternatives to victory than just Braser and Barnes or else you'll burn them out, although given the lack of late leads they've had to protect, maybe that won't be an issue? Of course if they're going to really contend, that that's a different answer - you'd need somebody high leverage.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 24, 2019 9:14:21 GMT -5
On thing that's frustrating with the way this team was built is how few of the Triple-A guys have options remaining. With three 40-man spots (and realistically four, because a plague has hit and Chandler Shepherd still hasn't entered the conversation), it would be great to be able to just purchase a contract of someone they can send down tomorrow. But all these guys: Josh Smith, Erasmo Ramirez, Dan Runzler, Jenrry Mejia... all have no options. I'd prefer they didn't start burning Shawaryn's options before they need to (I could see a situation where it'd be nice if he still had one 2022), but it might be necessary. It kind of forced their hand to use Hernandez and Lakins, two guys who I'd prefer didn't see their development interfered with, in a major league game--not because they wanted to go to them, but because they didn't have other choices.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Apr 24, 2019 10:36:25 GMT -5
At this point, offer Kimbrel a contract at one year at 10-12 million. The season is on the line at this point. You really have zero margin for error here. If you're out of it by July, you trade him for whatever you can get by then anyways. You tried to get cute with this dumb plan of bad bullpen arms. It isn't working. Get Kimbrel a job. Get him some of his value back so he can try this all over again with no QO attached. I cold be mistake but isn't there a rule that says; you can not trade a player, that was a free agent, that you signed, until a minimum of 6 months has passed from the date the contract was signed?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 24, 2019 10:41:58 GMT -5
At this point, offer Kimbrel a contract at one year at 10-12 million. The season is on the line at this point. You really have zero margin for error here. If you're out of it by July, you trade him for whatever you can get by then anyways. You tried to get cute with this dumb plan of bad bullpen arms. It isn't working. Get Kimbrel a job. Get him some of his value back so he can try this all over again with no QO attached. I cold be mistake but isn't there a rule that says; you can not trade a player, that was a free agent, that you signed, until a minimum of 6 months has passed from the date the contract was signed? I'm pretty sure there used to be a rule like that but I'm unsure of how long the length of time was. I certainly remember the Red Sox giving Bronson Arroyo a long-term contract and trading him away practically 5 minutes later, but he wasn't a free agent. But I think Greg Holland was in a similar situation last year. Signed late with St. Louis and got traded to Washington by 7/31.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 24, 2019 11:01:36 GMT -5
I think one way to look at this is that the bullpen has worked out in a sense. Sure it sucks, but, hey, the whole team sucks, so why spend on a bullpen that is not the thing holding them back? Bad teams don't need expensive closers, and it is not like the Sox are a good team but for a bunch of blown saves.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 24, 2019 14:25:43 GMT -5
-Hembree has been worse this year in a small sample size. -Thonburg was lit up all spring training on his fastball -Workman can't ever maintain velocity. -The kids are unproven. -Brewer walks too many guys.
Everyone besides Walden, Workman, Barnes, and Brasier have been bad thus far. Even my guy Lakins has down velocity to start the year.
As constituted, this bullpen isn't good enough. Maybe Mejia comes up and surprises, I don't know. That's no given.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Apr 24, 2019 22:12:17 GMT -5
Anyone still have any faith in Thornburg ever becoming anything? Moving this post to the bullpen thread. There was a significant uptick in spin rate and velo from 2015 to 2016 - when he had his career year. His stuff is basically back to where it was in 2016, so you would hope to see a run of dominance for at least a month or so. IMO it's mostly location at this point.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Apr 24, 2019 22:43:47 GMT -5
Looking at heatmaps to RHB: He's been more wild with the 4FB and he hasn't been burying the curve as well. But his curveball xwOBA is actually lower than it was in 2016 - it's the fastball that's getting hit. Not as good as xwOBA, but he's been getting hammered when he's ahead in the count. Nothing conclusive here, but it's hinting at command/sequencing issues, which is consistent with the eyeball test. I don't see any reason not to let him kick around the back of the bullpen until June 1 or so. If he gets it together, he can be a real weapon - if not, cut your losses.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 24, 2019 22:59:01 GMT -5
The fact that he has no command of the fastball and it's been getting lit up, this doesn't make me feel any better. The number one thing you need as a pitcher in the majors is fastball command or you're going to run into trouble all the time.
The guy can't be trusted in back to back outings. Cora abandoned him already for a week because of this.
So you have 2 options in the bullpen which you can't trust at all in Thornburg and Brewer. You have one arm in Hembree who looks to headed for a down year. A unproven Lakins and Walden.
Am I missing anything here with the group?
|
|
|
Post by beavertontim on Apr 24, 2019 23:14:17 GMT -5
Brewer needs to go down, Thornburg is either hurt or needs rehab. Add a position player and Ryan Weber to replace.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Apr 24, 2019 23:23:47 GMT -5
The fact that he has no command of the fastball and it's been getting lit up, this doesn't make me feel any better. The number one thing you need as a pitcher in the majors is fastball command or you're going to run into trouble all the time. The guy can't be trusted in back to back outings. Cora abandoned him already for a week because of this. So you have 2 options in the bullpen which you can't trust at all in Thornburg and Brewer. You have one arm in Hembree who looks to headed for a down year. A unproven Lakins and Walden. Am I missing anything here with the group? Well I mean I guess you're missing the fact that 4 bullpen pitchers are pitching well and that if you were to examine bullpens across the MLB at any one timepoint, its probably pretty rare to have 5 or more relief pitchers performing at above average levels or higher (lets say when looking at those pitchers' past 20 innings) You're taking a pretty crude approach to loving and hating pitchers while others are trying to dig a little deeper and look for indicators of future success. I tend to agree with the notion that Thornburg has actually shown me enough with stuff to pique my interest. He's certainly shown me enough to keep him in the bullpen (at least until June as suggested by Orion above) and let him work through lower leverage innings to see if he can harness everything a bit more. Brewer is also interesting because the raw ingredients are there for success but he's very new to the system. Given that he has options, I'd maybe opt to send him to Pawtucket at some point (perhaps sending up Mejia or Taylor?) and letting Bannister, Bush, and the gang work with him a bit more to see if there can be any gains made to his mechanics & control/command.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 25, 2019 4:24:48 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be crude or anything, I guess it's just a matter of me not believing in the talent level. This bullpen is like the 2003 Red Sox rotation right now. Sure you were great with Pedro at the top, and solid with D Lowe and Wakefield, but your number 4 starter was John Burkett. As soon you say that name, it's immediately a problem. This bullpen has a nasty Matt Barnes and a solid Brasier (it seems), but nothing beyond that. I don't believe in Workman over the course of a long season and who knows with Walden.
Thornburg not being able to spot fastballs where he wants is a talent issue. Yeap, his offspeed is nasty, but you need to command. It's the one reason why Workman has survived in this league to this point.
I guess I hate the comparison also to the rest of the league too. Half of the league is trying to lose, of course half of the teams aren't going to have 4 relievers performing at one time. Look at what the Tigers are throwing out there yesterday. I fully believe the Marlins would throw out Barney the dinosaur as a closer if it could guarentee them 100 losses and a number one pick right now.
Add- The Sox really have no choice but to wait it out with Thornburg regardless. There really isn't a ton of good depth behind him. The Sox are going to live and die with their off-season plan that looks really flawed.
In a age where starters are designed to go 5-6 innings max, the Sox made the other 3-4 innings a heart attack this year.
|
|
|