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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 17, 2019 22:56:07 GMT -5
Well I see where demainah is coming from and your point as well. DD loves hard throwers in the pen. Eovaldi is that and would likely be a dominant closer. But, as you say, he signed to be a starter and got paid starter bucks. He was deemed more important than Kimbrel in the great scheme and given apparent salary demands. Healthy, he is a bargain as a starter. Kimbrel was not going to be a bargain.
Who knows what will transpire? Last year Eovaldi WAS Mr. October. If we are lucky enough to get back, we may need him as Superman again. Hopefully after 2 TJs, his arm does not harbor residual kryptonite.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2019 7:18:26 GMT -5
I think he will be the #5 starter sometime in May & it will coincide with Eovaldi being named the Closer. So instead of signing Kimbrel, a proven closer. They chose to give the job and more money to Eovaldi? Yeah, because he strikes out about half as many batters, unlike Barnes who struck out slightly more than Kimbrel last season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 7:42:29 GMT -5
If Swithart isn’t either traded or given 60%+ of the starts behind the plate he should sue the Red Sox for his release (hyperbole). The Sox should also have their heads examined. He’s by far their highest ceiling catcher, has improved his defensive game drastically and needs to finally be given at bats to give his offense a chance.
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 18, 2019 9:28:15 GMT -5
If Swithart isn’t either traded or given 60%+ of the starts behind the plate he should sue the Red Sox for his release (hyperbole) If Swihart is suddenly given 60% of the starts at catcher, *I'll* sue the Red Sox. Can I ask (seriously, non-snarky, etc.) what you, or anyone else that feels similarly, has seen of or heard about Swihart to warrant that? You reference his drastic improvements on defense, but how much evidence is there that that's the case? Even looking purely at offense, I don't see a ton of reasons for optimism. It's tough to use numbers to evaluate him, but just watching him I see a low-obp guy with warning-track power and some contact ability. If you do look at the stats, it's a small sample but certainly no more encouraging unless you pay pretty selective attention to certain numbers from 3-4+ years ago. I'd be happy to be convinced otherwise, so what am I missing?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2019 9:29:46 GMT -5
If Swithart isn’t either traded or given 60%+ of the starts behind the plate he should sue the Red Sox for his release (hyperbole) If Swihart is suddenly given 60% of the starts at catcher, *I'll* sue the Red Sox. Can I ask (seriously, non-snarky, etc.) what you, or anyone else that feels similarly, has seen of or heard about Swihart to warrant that? You reference his drastic improvements on defense, but how much evidence is there that that's the case? Even looking purely at offense, I don't see a ton of reasons for optimism. It's tough to use numbers to evaluate him, but just watching him I see a low-obp guy with warning-track power and some contact ability. If you do look at the stats, it's a small sample but certainly no more encouraging unless you pay pretty selective attention to certain numbers from 3-4+ years ago. I'd be happy to be convinced otherwise, so what am I missing? You're missing him playing. No one can judge him because there is very little to judge. What's even worse is that he's a switch hitter and has gotten 162 total plate appearances vs LHP in the last 4 years. He did have a 101 wRC+ vs. RHP last year though, which is quite a bit above average for a catcher.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 18, 2019 9:32:26 GMT -5
Darwinzon survived another round of cuts.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 18, 2019 9:34:50 GMT -5
Feltman and Brewer survived as well.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 18, 2019 9:35:35 GMT -5
If Swihart is suddenly given 60% of the starts at catcher, *I'll* sue the Red Sox. Can I ask (seriously, non-snarky, etc.) what you, or anyone else that feels similarly, has seen of or heard about Swihart to warrant that? You reference his drastic improvements on defense, but how much evidence is there that that's the case? Even looking purely at offense, I don't see a ton of reasons for optimism. It's tough to use numbers to evaluate him, but just watching him I see a low-obp guy with warning-track power and some contact ability. If you do look at the stats, it's a small sample but certainly no more encouraging unless you pay pretty selective attention to certain numbers from 3-4+ years ago. I'd be happy to be convinced otherwise, so what am I missing? You're missing him playing. No one can judge him because there is very little to judge. What's even worse is that he's a switch hitter and has gotten 162 total plate appearances vs LHP in the last 4 years. We've been over this a bunch so I'm not going to restate every argument in depth, but basically come on, man. This whole notion that Blake Swihart is some kind of unknowable mystery would not exist if he was in any other organization.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2019 9:42:48 GMT -5
You're missing him playing. No one can judge him because there is very little to judge. What's even worse is that he's a switch hitter and has gotten 162 total plate appearances vs LHP in the last 4 years. We've been over this a bunch so I'm not going to restate every argument in depth, but basically come on, man. This whole notion that Blake Swihart is some kind of unknowable mystery would not exist if he was in any other organization. Right, because he'd be playing. He should be traded to a rebuilding team who can afford to see what he can do with regular playing time even if it's awful. The paralysis of trading or not playing Swihart is one of the most annoying things about the Red Sox in the last year. Guess that means it was a good year, but still.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 18, 2019 9:44:30 GMT -5
The WEEI article speculates that the Sox will go with 13 pitchers with Pedroia on the DL so they'd still deal one of their catchers and go with a 3 man bench.
I'll guess that the Sox keep Workman and give the extra spot to Walden over Poyner and Brewer. I have trouble believing they would stunt Hernandez's growth as a starter by putting him in the pen.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 9:47:53 GMT -5
If Swithart isn’t either traded or given 60%+ of the starts behind the plate he should sue the Red Sox for his release (hyperbole) If Swihart is suddenly given 60% of the starts at catcher, *I'll* sue the Red Sox. Can I ask (seriously, non-snarky, etc.) what you, or anyone else that feels similarly, has seen of or heard about Swihart to warrant that? You reference his drastic improvements on defense, but how much evidence is there that that's the case? Even looking purely at offense, I don't see a ton of reasons for optimism. It's tough to use numbers to evaluate him, but just watching him I see a low-obp guy with warning-track power and some contact ability. If you do look at the stats, it's a small sample but certainly no more encouraging unless you pay pretty selective attention to certain numbers from 3-4+ years ago. I'd be happy to be convinced otherwise, so what am I missing? I don’t know if you’re missing anything but keeping him around to be used like he was last year or even in a limited role basically does nothing for him or the team. They kept him because they liked his upside and if you’re not going to give him a true opportunity then it’s a complete waste. I think you need to commit to him getting 4-5 starts a week for the first 2-3 months of the year to give him a chance. Obviously, if he’s terrible you don’t go all year but he needs to be committed to and given a chance it moved on from. My preference would be to keep him and Vasquez and move on from Leon. As far as Switharts defense improving to the lay person he looked better back there later in the year and he got a lot more opportunity and caught in some high leverage spots so it would appear the team feels a lot better about him back there too. Again this is more about it being to to sh*t or get off the pot. If you want to get off the pot I understand why.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 18, 2019 9:57:21 GMT -5
Feltman and Brewer survived as well. Feltman was never with the big league camp (wasn't a non-roster invitee and isn't on the 40 man).
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 18, 2019 10:04:54 GMT -5
You're missing him playing. No one can judge him because there is very little to judge. What's even worse is that he's a switch hitter and has gotten 162 total plate appearances vs LHP in the last 4 years. We've been over this a bunch so I'm not going to restate every argument in depth, but basically come on, man. This whole notion that Blake Swihart is some kind of unknowable mystery would not exist if he was in any other organization. Yep. Swihart got 207 PA in 2018 with the big club in 2018. Slashed .229/.285/.328. Over 2012 PA in AAA Pawtucket in 2017 he slashed .190/.246/.292. Swihart has been playing baseball in the organization.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2019 10:20:19 GMT -5
We've been over this a bunch so I'm not going to restate every argument in depth, but basically come on, man. This whole notion that Blake Swihart is some kind of unknowable mystery would not exist if he was in any other organization. Yep. Swihart got 207 PA in 2018 with the big club in 2018. Slashed .229/.285/.328. Over 2012 PA in AAA Pawtucket in 2017 he slashed .190/.246/.292. Swihart has been playing baseball in the organization. He also slashed .275/.336/.412 vs RHP last year, well above average for a catcher. He had only 64 PA vs LHP and since he's a switch hitter not being able to even face LHP anywhere close to enough, I wouldn't even count them. It's pretty hard for natural lefty batters to be switch hitters and stay decent enough from the right side because they don't face enough LHP. And that was 207 PAs with a lot of them coming with a week off in between. That is pretty hard to judge. Players get rusty pretty quickly without regular at bats. Taking BP isn't anything close to facing live major league pitching. 207 PAs isn't even 1/3rd of a season.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 18, 2019 10:35:54 GMT -5
Yep. Swihart got 207 PA in 2018 with the big club in 2018. Slashed .229/.285/.328. Over 2012 PA in AAA Pawtucket in 2017 he slashed .190/.246/.292. Swihart has been playing baseball in the organization. He also slashed .275/.336/.412 vs RHP last year, well above average for a catcher. He had only 64 PA vs LHP and since he's a switch hitter not being able to even face LHP anywhere close to enough, I wouldn't even count them. It's pretty hard for natural lefty batters to be switch hitters and stay decent enough from the right side because they don't face enough LHP. A) He's not going to be used in a strict platoon and B) being an above average hitter from your good side doesn't actually mean that much. Everyone's an above average hitter if you ignore the kinds of pitchers they're bad at hitting.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 10:52:09 GMT -5
I think it’s fairly safe to say the team thinks there’s untapped potential in Swithart. If not, why’s he here?
Also, the guy is 26 and missed some key development time. To say he can’t get better is pretty silly.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 18, 2019 11:17:46 GMT -5
B) being an above average hitter from your good side doesn't actually mean that much. Everyone's an above average hitter if you ignore the kinds of pitchers they're bad at hitting. Is this a serious statement? You're so dead set on Swihart being the wrong answer that you're going to renounce platoon splits? I'm saying that comparing someone's favorable splits to everyone else's overall line is somewhat deceptive. Everything isn't a binary.
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 18, 2019 12:14:42 GMT -5
Here's the thing: Leon & Vazquez have almost identical floors, ceilings, and expected outcomes. They're effectively the same player and both kind of "meh" Referencing your quote since it's convenient, but it seems like a lot of people look at those two and think "they're both defense-oriented rhh hitting catchers who didn't hit well last year, so they're effectively the same player" but see Swihart as someone who's still an up-and-comer, and this is one thing I definitely disagree with. Swihart will be 27 this year, Vazquez 28 for most of it - they're at roughly the same point in their development. Over the course of four seasons, Vazquez has about 400 more PA's in the majors; so while he has gotten more reps than Swihart, if you don't feel we have enough information to decide on Swihart, it's tough for me to understand how Vazquez is already cemented as to the type of player he will be. It just seems to me that most arguments in Swihart's favor involve saying "he's always injured or benched" which simply isn't strong enough to move on from guys that we know can help the team, at least in certain ways. I wouldn't be too upset if they traded Leon and kept Swihart as a backup, as the Red Sox may be the only people out there who have any real idea who or what Blake Swihart is and that would indicate they really do see something. Moving on from Vazquez seems insanely risky to me though, and I wouldn't be too surprised if Vazquez ends up as the better offensive player anyway.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2019 12:28:28 GMT -5
He also slashed .275/.336/.412 vs RHP last year, well above average for a catcher. He had only 64 PA vs LHP and since he's a switch hitter not being able to even face LHP anywhere close to enough, I wouldn't even count them. It's pretty hard for natural lefty batters to be switch hitters and stay decent enough from the right side because they don't face enough LHP. A) He's not going to be used in a strict platoon and B) being an above average hitter from your good side doesn't actually mean that much. Everyone's an above average hitter if you ignore the kinds of pitchers they're bad at hitting. Fair enough on point A. However point B is not true at all for Leon or Vazquez, single season or career. Vazquez wRC+ vs RHP career, 63, 2018, 35. vs LHP career, 78, 2018, 63. Leon wRC+ vs RHP career, 60, 2018, 36. vs LHP career, 78, 2018 26. Swihart vs RHP career, 97, 2018, 101. vs LHP career, 45, 2018 -21. Swihart is by far the best hitter against 75% of the league's pitchers, even without regular playing time. It's of note that Swihart only has 162 MLB PAs in the last 4 seasons which is too small of a sample size to do anything with.
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 18, 2019 12:38:32 GMT -5
I'm relatively new to using statcast/batted-ball stats so I don't know how much of a sample size is needed for this data to be useful, but looking at 2018 numbers, Swihart and Vazquez were nearly identical in exit velocity and launch angle, the only real difference was in BABIP, which was .237 for Vazquez and .311 for Swihart
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Post by kevfc89 on Mar 18, 2019 14:01:00 GMT -5
Spring training has been pretty boring to watch this year (which isn't necessarily good or bad). Even when we have a full lineup like today, we just haven't been scoring.
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Post by huskies15 on Mar 18, 2019 14:12:53 GMT -5
I agree. This March has been a bit of a dud from the team. It doesn't really matter, but it would be nice to have some sort of juice to these fake games.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2019 14:45:25 GMT -5
I agree. This March has been a bit of a dud from the team. It doesn't really matter, but it would be nice to have some sort of juice to these fake games. It matters if it spills into the season... last spring they were great and got off to a great start. This year they are easing guys in; let’s just hope they are ready to go. The teams key quality, besides talent, last season was its ability to not have any prolonged slumps. Did they very lose more then 3 in a row?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 19, 2019 8:03:43 GMT -5
Glad there are only a handful of games remaining - I am ready to watch this team crank it up for real. I have to think that they were working on some things, staying healthy - the starters have looked fine, the pen is going to be a work in progress, and there are too many bats for the offense to struggle all that much.
Bring on the REAL games.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 19, 2019 8:22:32 GMT -5
With one week left, Pedey now on the DL, 13 pitchers, and Swihart on the roster but out of options - what happens here? My preference would be to drop a pitcher that still has options - Velazquez - keep Swihart on the team in the short term - then there is Brewer - he has options as well...let him show his stuff in Boston, or in Pawtucket? Three catchers, two of whom don't hit - that's tough, and that's where I think Swihart is valuable - but he needs regular reps.
Good to have so few issues going in to the season, however!
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