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Now & Then - Looking Back Five Years at the Top 20
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Post by chrisfromnc on Mar 18, 2019 8:44:17 GMT -5
I was just surfing around on the site and realized I am not very enthusiastic about the current group of prospects at the top of the farm system. I'm sure my own perspective this has a something do with the lengthy list of injuries suffered by players in the top twenty last year. In any case, I was going to start a thread to discuss the draft from five years ago (the 2013 draft) but that was too depressing given how bad that draft now looks. Instead I looked back at the Top 20 list from five years ago.
Looking at the April 3, 2014 list brings back some pretty good memories. Most of us were probably thrilled about what Henry Owens had on the horizon and those hopes were unrealized. But look at that list in total! With the wonderful benefit of hindsight how cool is it to see so many 2018 World Champions on that list. Rafael Devers, we see you there at number 18. Brian Johnson is the "anchor man" at number 20. Up at the top you have Xander, JBJ, and look at that... Mookie freakin' Betts is you number 10 prospect. Ten! Who were the fools ranking nine players ahead of him? I must confess, I really was looking forward to the great career I thought Drake Britton would have, but that shows how little I know about picking prospects.
So, I am curious what the rest of the Sox Prospects community thinks about the current Top Twenty list. What will we be saying about the current list five years from now? Will Jay Groome be a guy we are hoping will sign a long term contract buying out some arbitration years? Will Triton Casas have moved Devers over to first base? Tell me what you think about the current system and let us know what your crystal ball says about how it will pan out five years from now.
Yeah, it is a speculative thread, but how many times can we discuss three catchers? |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 18, 2019 9:13:15 GMT -5
Just a finger in the air looking at the top 20
Most certain to stick and be impactful - Chavis, Casas, Hernandez, Feltman, Howlett, Lakins - perhaps Dalbec.
Beyond that it is issues due to being injury impacted or prone, or just an intuition....and I mean sticking and making an impact here. Some of those two may end up elsewhere and make an impact.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 18, 2019 9:19:02 GMT -5
Well, there's always the bullpen to discuss to death...lol
But this is a fun exercise. I'll play.
I believe Tristan Casas will be the 1b in 2024 and we'll be happy about that. I think he'll succeed Chavis who winds up at 1b in 2020 and holds the position until Casas' arrival and gets dealt.
3b will be Nick Northcut? I'm guessing between now and then that Dalbec gets dealt and so does Howlett, and I don't think Diaz will pan out.
Steve Decker will be in RF. I'm guessing the Sox extend Benintendi and Betts with Mookie in CF.
I'll guess that Duran winds up as a speedy Brock Holt semi-regular utility type after being a starter in CF.
I'll guess that Hernandez winds up in the bullpen and becomes the closer after he struggles as a starter and when Feltman's delivery catches up to him.
I think Houck winds up in the bullpen as a Mike Timlin type, useful. I'll guess that we never see what we want out of Groome. I don't think Mata will make it either. I think the Sox still will have yet to develop a starter.
I think Kottam becomes the next Lavarnway so they'll still have Velazquez, and be looking for another catcher.
I think Bogaerts walks at the end of the year and that Chatham has a nice year in the minors and is the Sox SS in 2020 and eventually moves to 2b to make some room for Antoni Flores who has a solid rookie year for the 2024 Red Sox at SS.
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Post by huskies15 on Mar 18, 2019 11:15:14 GMT -5
was Kukuk still in the system in 2014? Anyway it's hard to really think the Red Sox have a star or even solid regular in the system right now. I'm confident in Chavis, Feltman, and Hernandez having big league roles at some point. Beyond those three I think you really start wishcasting that something clicks.
I wanted to put Dalbec in there but I need to see him K less than 30%.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,765
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Post by mobaz on Mar 18, 2019 12:15:21 GMT -5
was Kukuk still in the system in 2014? Anyway it's hard to really think the Red Sox have a star or even solid regular in the system right now. I'm confident in Chavis, Feltman, and Hernandez having big league roles at some point. Beyond those three I think you really start wishcasting that something clicks. I wanted to put Dalbec in there but I need to see him K less than 30%. Given the talent and pedigree within the system, I'd say it's reasonable to assume SOMEBODY else will come out and be a 1st division regular or better, but it's not obvious whom. It's taken some bad luck for the system to get where it is (injuries, suspensions, D. Flores tragedy) and I think it will only take luck "back to the mean" for better outcomes. Lots of 1st round picks, quality international guys and young overachievers coming through. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2019 15:09:09 GMT -5
For this I'll purely hypothetically say every Red Sox player who has exhausted their prospect status is for some reason declared a free agent and does not re-sign, and every prospect instantly blossoms to their full ability with any injuries healed, and the Red Sox had to create a team of them:
Lineup:
1. Jarren Duran, CF
2. Tristan Casas, 1B
3. Bobby Dalbec, DH
4. Michael Chavis, 3B
5. Nick Decker, LF
6. CJ Chatham, SS
7. Eduardo Lopez, RF
8. Brandon Howlett, 2B (Convert from 3B?)
9. Kole Cottam, C
Bench:
C:
Roldani Baldwin
1B:
Josh Ockimey
IF:
Nick Northcut
Tzu-Wei Lin
OF:
Tyler Dearden
Rotation:
1. Bryan Mata
2. Jay Groome
3. Darwinzon Hernandez
4. Alex Scherff
5. Mike Shawaryn
Bullpen:
Tanner Houck
Travis Lakins
Chase Shugart
Bobby Poyner
Colten Brewer
Closer:
Durbin Feltman
40-Man Roster:
1. Antoni Flores, SS
2. Danny Diaz, 3B
3. Denyi Reyes, RP
4. Kutter Crawford, RP
5. Zach Schellenger, SP
6. Gilberto Jimenez, OF
7. Josh Taylor, RP
8. Jake Thompson, RP
9. Pedro Castellanos, 1B
10. Brett Netzer, 2B
11. Tyler Esplin, OF
12. Cole Brannen, OF
13. Tate Matheny, OF
14. Matt Kent, RP
15. Thad Ward, SP
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Post by chrisfromnc on Mar 18, 2019 15:42:40 GMT -5
For this I'll purely hypothetically say every Red Sox player who has exhausted their prospect status is for some reason declared a free agent and does not re-sign, and every prospect instantly blossoms to their full ability with any injuries healed, and the Red Sox had to create a team of them: Ok, but how much of that roster actually excites you?
When I looked at the April 2014 list, there were several guys that I was very thrilled about seeing develop. I was very high on Bradley. I was, like the rest of this board, thrilled at what Xander was about to become. I was wrongly hyped about Drake Britton. Hindsight tells us just how deep that Top 20 list was. My original point is that I am personally not feeling that way about the current group of top prospects. I assume Michael Chavis is gonna be a nice player. I assume Houck or Groome might develop into a pretty useful pitcher. But none of them send the tingle up my leg like the list from five years ago. I'd like to hear about which prospects people are genuinely enthusiastic about right now.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2019 19:59:20 GMT -5
For this I'll purely hypothetically say every Red Sox player who has exhausted their prospect status is for some reason declared a free agent and does not re-sign, and every prospect instantly blossoms to their full ability with any injuries healed, and the Red Sox had to create a team of them: Ok, but how much of that roster actually excites you?
When I looked at the April 2014 list, there were several guys that I was very thrilled about seeing develop. I was very high on Bradley. I was, like the rest of this board, thrilled at what Xander was about to become. I was wrongly hyped about Drake Britton. Hindsight tells us just how deep that Top 20 list was. My original point is that I am personally not feeling that way about the current group of top prospects. I assume Michael Chavis is gonna be a nice player. I assume Houck or Groome might develop into a pretty useful pitcher. But none of them send the tingle up my leg like the list from five years ago. I'd like to hear about which prospects people are genuinely enthusiastic about right now.
It depends on how you define "excites you". I think a number of these guys could legitimately become decent big league players, but I bet only 1 or 2 will become all-stars, and which 1 or 2 those will be is hard to say. Overall, I don't think this would be a playoff contending team, meaning to compete in the future the Sox will have to either re-sign players such as Betts and Sale, or sign new free agents, and maybe some trades, but I hope we don't do too many so that we can rebuild our farm system in a bit. It also depends on how far they've come, for example, Dearden was a late round pick, and even though I doubt he'll be a regular, it would be nice to see him in the MLB even as a backup. I like the way Duran is looking after exploding last year, Casas, Decker, and Feltman were a great top 3 that could help rebuild the system with a few more good drafts, and I am kinda higher than most on Chatham, if he doesn't keep getting injured. Mata has been fun to watch in the minors, but we'll see how long that keeps up, and I'm also pretty hyped about Northcut, the only reason I don't have him starting is because of all the other infielders. |
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