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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 30, 2019 13:00:29 GMT -5
A's blow an 89.7% Win Probability (up a run in the bottom of the ninth, 1 out, nobody on) and get walked off. Now tied with the Rays, but they have the tiebreaker for home field. The Rays have better pitching matchups this weekend, so there's a real chance the A's could blow it. There would be no justice if the Rays' fans get even a single home playoff game. Of course, neither team would seem to have a prayer against the Astros.
I mean probably not, but it's worth remembering that the As have improved their pitching staff a lot in the past month or so. Manaea is back in the rotation, while Puk and Luzardo are being used as multi-inning relievers. Combined with what they already had, that's the kind of bullpen you could ride all the way through October. Again, not the favorites, but sneakily more of a threat than I think they're being given credit for. It's also worth taking a look at the A's hitting stats for the year. They were no more immune to the rabbit-ball effect than any other team. There are seven guys with at least 20 HRs, led by Chapman and Olson with 36 a piece, and Semien at 33. I don't see them just rolling over Astros or not. First they have to get past the Rays. It's worth noting that the temp will be dropping down into the 50s on Wednesday night. That will draw marine air in from the Bay and it should make for a pitching duel.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 30, 2019 13:11:43 GMT -5
Hmm. Interesting. Yet Lynn was far better at home than on the road, while Verlander was better at home than Lynn at home and better on the road than Lynn on the road. Both were almost perfect 50/50 h/a split. So if you took just their away games, which should basically even out for outside factors, JV was much better. Lynn: 17 starts, 6-10 3.84 ERA (1.253 WHIP) JV: 17 starts 11-2 2.82 ERA (0.761 WHIP) The games at home count though. If your best games come in the hardest pitching environments, it doesn't make sense to just iron those out and only count the away games. The fact that he pitched better in Arlington doesn't change the fact it's a harder place to pitch, it makes it more impressive that he pitched well there. That’s fine, but JV’s splits are better by far on both ends than Lynn’s. So I guess the question I’d ask is is Lynn getting TOO MUCH of a boost for the alleged difficulty of Arlington. If in half their games under more controlled circumstances, JV is far better, and if he is better (unweighted for field) by far both home and away than Lynn is at home (his better split), than Lynn must be getting a massive boost for his home games, which make up only half his games. I guess the flip-side is that elite pitchers who are elite anywhere get punished for pitching in average parks half the time, even if evidence indicates that it doesn’t much matter. Edit: interestingly, Mike Minor has a clearer case for ballpark effect, with much better road numbers. But it is striking to me that two Rangers pitchers with numbers across the board worse than Cole have higher WARs I guess because half their fames are in a stadium worth that much. But to me, the decisive question would Minor or Lynn be better than Cole on the Astros is so obvious it is rhetorical. If WAR is meant to be a way to compare players, the answer should be yes.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2019 13:16:20 GMT -5
The games at home count though. If your best games come in the hardest pitching environments, it doesn't make sense to just iron those out and only count the away games. The fact that he pitched better in Arlington doesn't change the fact it's a harder place to pitch, it makes it more impressive that he pitched well there. That’s fine, but JV’s splits are better by far on both ends than Lynn’s. So I guess the question I’d ask is is Lynn getting TOO MUCH of a boost for the alleged difficulty of Arlington. If in half their games under more controlled circumstances, JV is far better, and if he is better (unweighted for field) by far both home and away than Lynn is at home (his better split), than Lynn must be getting a massive boost for his home games, which make up only half his games. I guess the flip-side is that elite pitchers who are elite anywhere get punished for pitching in average parks half the time, even if evidence indicates that it doesn’t much matter. The other major difference is that Houston's defense was far superior to Texas'. Also, Lynn's opponents averaged 5.16 runs/9 IP while Verlander's were at 4.98. Verlander benefited from not having to face Houston's lineup. The difference in fielding is pretty severe. -0.29 R/9 for Texas vs. +0.28 R/9 for Houston. That's a total difference of .57 runs per 9 innings just from defense.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 30, 2019 13:18:48 GMT -5
That’s fine, but JV’s splits are better by far on both ends than Lynn’s. So I guess the question I’d ask is is Lynn getting TOO MUCH of a boost for the alleged difficulty of Arlington. If in half their games under more controlled circumstances, JV is far better, and if he is better (unweighted for field) by far both home and away than Lynn is at home (his better split), than Lynn must be getting a massive boost for his home games, which make up only half his games. I guess the flip-side is that elite pitchers who are elite anywhere get punished for pitching in average parks half the time, even if evidence indicates that it doesn’t much matter. The other major difference is that Houston's defense was far superior to Texas'. Also, Lynn's opponents averaged 5.16 runs/9 IP while Verlander's were at 4.98. Verlander benefited from not having to face Houston's lineup. Or Verlander’s opponents lost part of that fraction facing JV (and Cole)? That is a pretty negligible difference. Edit: and as for defense, I don’t see how that can be fully isolated. With over 600 Ks between them, the ‘stros pair relied on defense less than any pitchers in baseball. And, if they are dominating, maybe the D is improved by weak contact?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2019 13:21:16 GMT -5
The other major difference is that Houston's defense was far superior to Texas'. Also, Lynn's opponents averaged 5.16 runs/9 IP while Verlander's were at 4.98. Verlander benefited from not having to face Houston's lineup. Or Verlander’s opponents lost part of that fraction facing JV (and Cole)? That is a pretty negligible difference. Being on Houston benefits Houston pitchers 0.75 runs per 9 innings because of defense and opponent quality alone over Texas pitchers pitching for Texas. That's a remarkable difference.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 30, 2019 13:25:35 GMT -5
Or Verlander’s opponents lost part of that fraction facing JV (and Cole)? That is a pretty negligible difference. Being on Houston benefits Houston pitchers 0.75 runs per 9 innings because of defense and opponent quality alone over Texas pitchers pitching for Texas. Which would still give Cole and Verlander better ERAs than the Texas duo. JV faced 847 guys and Ked 300; Cole faced 817 and Ked 326! They were taking care of more than 1/3 of the batters they faced (not just outs but all batters) alone. Edit: and ai don’t get opponent quality. Basically what you are saying is Texas faces Hou instead of Tx and vice versa. Are the few games each way so big that it is worth that much? Mostly they face the same teams. And might that not be somewhat circular? Facing Houston partly sucks because you face JV and Cole?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2019 13:28:20 GMT -5
Being on Houston benefits Houston pitchers 0.75 runs per 9 innings because of defense and opponent quality alone over Texas pitchers pitching for Texas. Which would still give Cole and Verlander better ERAs than the Texas duo. JV faced 847 guys and Ked 300; Cole faced 817 and Ked 326! They were taking care of more than 1/3 of the batters they faced (not just outs but all batters) alone. Well you wanted to know why Lynn is right there in bWAR and I told you. I'm not going to get into the 500th WAR isn't stupid argument. Who the hell is Ked?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 30, 2019 13:37:48 GMT -5
Which would still give Cole and Verlander better ERAs than the Texas duo. JV faced 847 guys and Ked 300; Cole faced 817 and Ked 326! They were taking care of more than 1/3 of the batters they faced (not just outs but all batters) alone. Well you wanted to know why Lynn is right there in bWAR and I told you. I'm not going to get into the 500th WAR isn't stupid argument. Who the hell is Ked? K’d Ked Struck out. K’d seems an inappropriate use of an apostrophe, so I thought to use a form that was closer to syntactical correctness. This is not so much a stupid thing as a maybe the ballpark adjustment is overly inflated. I’m assuming the WAR formulas are constantly refined, and I feel like too much is made of factors that might be hard to isolate.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2019 13:45:18 GMT -5
Well you wanted to know why Lynn is right there in bWAR and I told you. I'm not going to get into the 500th WAR isn't stupid argument. Who the hell is Ked? K’d Ked Struck out. K’d seems an inappropriate use of an apostrophe, so I thought to use a form that was closer to syntactical correctness. This is not so much a stupid thing as a maybe the ballpark adjustment is overly inflated. I’m assuming the WAR formulas are constantly refined, and I feel like too much is made of factors that might be hard to isolate. It's not the ballpark adjustment that is drastic. It's the 0.57 runs per 9 difference because of defense between Houston and Texas in addition to the ballpark adjustment and opponent quality that makes them close to the same.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2019 14:12:34 GMT -5
The Astros didn't issue an intentional walk this year.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2019 13:01:32 GMT -5
I've seen some mentions of Showalter and Girardi being managerial candidates. I will ridicule the team that hires either.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 10, 2019 9:36:38 GMT -5
Gabe Kapler is out in Philly. It took the Phillies 10 days after the season ended to do it.
If/when Roberts gets the boot in LA, I feel like he'd be a good fit there. Issues with his game management aside (and they're important issues), his skills in the clubhouse might go a long way into fixing whatever it is, exactly, is going wrong with the culture of that team. The worst thing Philly could do is bring in someone without coaching experience. A first-time hire (Espada for example) would be okay, but not a celebrity who isn't used to coaching every day and seeing the clubhouse from that side of things.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 10, 2019 10:13:44 GMT -5
Gabe Kapler is out in Philly. It took the Phillies 10 days after the season ended to do it. If/when Roberts gets the boot in LA, I feel like he'd be a good fit there. Issues with his game management aside (and they're important issues), his skills in the clubhouse might go a long way into fixing whatever it is, exactly, is going wrong with the culture of that team. The worst thing Philly could do is bring in someone without coaching experience. A first-time hire (Espada for example) would be okay, but not a celebrity who isn't used to coaching every day and seeing the clubhouse from that side of things. I don't think Kapler did anything in Phillie that makes this firing unjustifiable, but that team is struggling because they did the full Astros/Cubs teardown and didn't end up developing the core talent they needed. They've even done a reasonably good job at flipping some of those disappointing prospects for guys like Segura and Realmuto, and Harper looks like a good addition at least for a while, but Nola/Kingery/Hoskins as your homegrown core just isn't getting it done. I don't know that any manager can solve that problem.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 10, 2019 10:49:22 GMT -5
I mean: www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&draft_type=junreg&draft_round=1&team_ID=PHISince drafting Hamels in 2002, their best 1st round pick was Aaron Nola, which is good. Their next best is Travis d'Arnaud, which is less good. I thought Moniak over Senzel was kinda crazy in 2016, but that was also the wrong year to bottom out. They weren't Senzel away, though they could certainly really use him. (That draft run from 1997 to 2002 though. And Jimmy Rollins and Randy Wolf were 2nd-round picks in '96/'97).
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Post by orion09 on Oct 10, 2019 10:51:38 GMT -5
8 managerial openings, wow. John Farrell has to be licking his chops.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 11, 2019 15:31:17 GMT -5
Wow, the QO DROPPED this year, from $17.9M to $17.8M.
In other words, the average of the top 125 salaries went down.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 11, 2019 20:43:19 GMT -5
If you are into baseball history, here's an interesting piece by John Thorn who is (in my opinion) the top baseball historian. You can follow him on twitter, he always has interesting stuff, at John Thorn @thorn_john www.nytimes.com/2019/10/09/opinion/black-sox-scandal-1919.htmlADD for interest: I remember a few years ago, he showed a newspaper article from the 1930's on launch angle and the target launch angle they came up with then was eerily similar to today's thoughts.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 12, 2019 3:29:07 GMT -5
If you are into baseball history, here's an interesting piece by John Thorn who is (in my opinion) the top baseball historian. You can follow him on twitter, he always has interesting stuff, at John Thorn @thorn_john www.nytimes.com/2019/10/09/opinion/black-sox-scandal-1919.htmlADD for interest: I remember a few years ago, he showed a newspaper article from the 1930's on launch angle and the target launch angle they came up with then was eerily similar to today's thoughts. Thanks for the well done article. I don’t think any “era” is truly golden, not then, not now. At least gambling has been out of favor doring the past 100 years, and still a cause for punishment, while personal integrity is is considered honorable. An aside to confirm your launch angle history point: Ted Williams, a launch angle prototype who “wrote the book”, was signed by the Sox in 1939 out of the Pacific Coast League, where he had played for several years in the late 30’s. The Sox brass took the train to San Diego for this. He must have often discussed such hitting strategies with his fellow Pacific Coast “friends” like Bobby Doerr and Dom DiMaggio. Certainly worthy of some research.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 12, 2019 8:00:17 GMT -5
Wow, the QO DROPPED this year, from $17.9M to $17.8M. In other words, the average of the top 125 salaries went down. Yeah, but now they can choose to not rehab. Definitely had the right priorities in the last CBA negotiations.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 12, 2019 8:09:24 GMT -5
It's only the beginning if teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox are all going to stay under the 208 line as revenues explode.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 12, 2019 22:34:49 GMT -5
Wow, the QO DROPPED this year, from $17.9M to $17.8M. In other words, the average of the top 125 salaries went down. Yeah, but now they can choose to not rehab. Definitely had the right priorities in the last CBA negotiations. Mind-boggling that Tony Clark is still in charge.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 13, 2019 7:49:52 GMT -5
They did bring in Bruce Meyer from the NHL on the recommendation of Donald Fehr: www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2018/08/27/People-and-Pop-Culture/Bruce-Meyer.aspxMeyer is a skilled labor negotiator. Clark needs to pull back from the table and take good notes. The owners are still snacking on MLBPA's lunch from the last go 'round. I'm not surprised at the drop in the average of the top salaries. That was ownership's goal, the entree. Disastrous for the players.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 13, 2019 12:08:18 GMT -5
They did bring in Bruce Meyer from the NHL on the recommendation of Donald Fehr: www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2018/08/27/People-and-Pop-Culture/Bruce-Meyer.aspxMeyer is a skilled labor negotiator. Clark needs to pull back from the table and take good notes. The owners are still snacking on MLBPA's lunch from the last go 'round. I'm not surprised at the drop in the average of the top salaries. That was ownership's goal, the entree. Disastrous for the players. I have never been a fan of averaging the salaries of top players, though I understand it’s importance. It’s about how these top salaries require low salaries for everyone else on what is supposed to be a team. I am far more concerned about the average of all players, as well as the average of the “middle class” and “lower class” of players, which would be more telling. As even Bernie would put it, the top 1% and even the top 10% are only making too much in relation to what the rest of a society is making.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 13, 2019 12:14:29 GMT -5
They did bring in Bruce Meyer from the NHL on the recommendation of Donald Fehr: www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2018/08/27/People-and-Pop-Culture/Bruce-Meyer.aspxMeyer is a skilled labor negotiator. Clark needs to pull back from the table and take good notes. The owners are still snacking on MLBPA's lunch from the last go 'round. I'm not surprised at the drop in the average of the top salaries. That was ownership's goal, the entree. Disastrous for the players. I have never been a fan of averaging the salaries of top players, though I understand it’s importance. It’s about how these top salaries require low salaries for everyone else on what is supposed to be a team. I am far more concerned about the average of all players, as well as the average of the “middle class” and “lower class” of players, which would be more telling. As even Bernie would put it, the top 1% and even the top 10% are only making too much in relation to what the rest of a society is making. I think I read somewhere that over 50% of MLB players are making the league minimum. So increasing the minimum would be a very good way of bringing the median salary up. Make it $2 million instead of $550K or whatever it is now.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 13, 2019 12:38:53 GMT -5
The big problem here is that attendance has been dropping along with youth baseball participation. Major League Baseball is making more money due to exploring alternative revenue streams and selling off assets, but that isn't sustainable. In 10 years Baseball/MLB won't look anything like it does today.
With players, i assume, upset their percentage of income is dropping and owners wary of future revenues given the state of the game, I would be surprised if there isn't a work stoppage - unless Tony Clark. He could be both horrible at his job and a saving grace of baseball simultaneously, only time will tell.
(if it were me, I'd reduce the cost of entry for viewing baseball games online/TV/In-person while expanding the international scene for worldwide club competition which was on an equal playing field)
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