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5/6-5/8 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 9, 2019 9:42:52 GMT -5
In Sale's last 4 starts, his line is 26 IP, 15H, 5 ER for a 1.73 ERA, 6 BB and 42 K. His last 2 starts are way better than that. He's better than ever. The season breaks down into three chunks: his first start, his next four plus the first 4 innings on 4/28, and and his last three innings that day plus his two subsequent starts.
This is xwOBA, then karma:
.572 +/- n/a, -.089 .324 +/- .071, .005 +/- .072. Basically a club sandwich: .327, .228, .393, .320, .410
.200 +/- .016, .029 +/- .049
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 9, 2019 10:09:22 GMT -5
In Sale's last 4 starts, his line is 26 IP, 15H, 5 ER for a 1.73 ERA, 6 BB and 42 K. His last 2 starts are way better than that. He's better than ever. Hopefully Price gets healthy again soon and we have a nasty 1- 3 punch FIFY. E-Rod has outpitched Price over their mutual last 5 starts (Price had a bad first start, E-Rod a bad first 2).
Price .291 xwOBA, .003 karma E-Rod .268, -.011.
The hangover / not ready for prime time thing was real.
Sale .572 (start 1), .324 (next 4 1/2), .200 (last 2 1/2) Price .370 (start 1), .291 (since) E-Rod .369 (first 2), .268 (next 5) Porcello .410 (first 2), .354 (next 2), .300 (last 3)
Eovaldi .439 (first 3), .185 (last)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 9, 2019 10:22:52 GMT -5
That play by JBJ was basically a 2 game swing in the standings. Go from demoralizing walk off loss, to an uplifting win that could be a spring board going forward, and a 500 record isntead of losing a series to the lowly birds and 2 games below 500. This is why I don't really care what JBJ hits/ Probably the worst time to make this argument, but what he hits still matters regardless of how good he is defensively. Jackie is hitting .142/.240/.170 right now. He's giving so many free outs to opposing teams that there just aren't enough balls hit to center field period to balance that ledger no matter how good he is. At 29, it seems more and more like 2016 was the career year for Jackie, and at this point he might be getting to the point of being more of a platoon guy. Which would be cool if there was a natural platoon option for him on the roster, but the way things are set up now, if you take any of JBJ's playing time away, you have to put a terrible defender in the outfield one way or another. Which still might be a net improvement given just how bad he is as a hitter right now, but it makes it a less obviously advantageous move.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 9, 2019 10:27:46 GMT -5
That play by JBJ was basically a 2 game swing in the standings. Go from demoralizing walk off loss, to an uplifting win that could be a spring board going forward, and a 500 record isntead of losing a series to the lowly birds and 2 games below 500. Yeah, how do you even measure the WPA on that? Not only did it save the game, it turned what would have been one of the most dismaying losses of the season into hands-down the sweetest victory. As long as I'm being a bummer, the spectacular nature of that play doesn't actually make it any more valuable than just scoring a couple runs in the fourth inning or whatever. One of them is obviously a much more memorable way to win the game, but a win is a win is a win.
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Post by huskies15 on May 9, 2019 10:48:54 GMT -5
Yeah, how do you even measure the WPA on that? Not only did it save the game, it turned what would have been one of the most dismaying losses of the season into hands-down the sweetest victory. As long as I'm being a bummer, the spectacular nature of that play doesn't actually make it any more valuable than just scoring a couple runs in the fourth inning or whatever. One of them is obviously a much more memorable way to win the game, but a win is a win is a win.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 9, 2019 10:51:54 GMT -5
True. But most teams at any level are likely to put up a couple of runs, and often from any part of the batting order, and by average players as often as stars.
On the other hand few teams have a player capable of influencing game results this way, and few among those capable players could make JBJ’s play.
A couple of added runs would be closer to baseball’s expected norms, whereas JBJ’s frequent game changing plays, like last night’s, are exceptions to baseball norms; though they are the norm for Jackie.
When he atarts to hit again, all this angst will end.
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2019 11:04:00 GMT -5
Yeah, how do you even measure the WPA on that? Not only did it save the game, it turned what would have been one of the most dismaying losses of the season into hands-down the sweetest victory. As long as I'm being a bummer, the spectacular nature of that play doesn't actually make it any more valuable than just scoring a couple runs in the fourth inning or whatever. One of them is obviously a much more memorable way to win the game, but a win is a win is a win. Well you must be a lot of fun at parties.* For one thing, that catch created a much bigger swing in win expectancy than, say, a 2-run homer in the 4th inning, which is without even considering the difficulty of the play, which WE/WPA don't measure. But the gist of the comment is that from the perspective of the emotional experience of a fan, the catch, followed by Benintendi's homer and the victory, felt like more than just a win because it was the swing between a terrible loss (squandering the Sale start, blowing it in extra innings) and a thrilling victory. And I'm not a big believer in the idea that players' feelings and moods matter all that much for team success, but for whatever it's worth, they must be feeling pretty good about it too. At the end of the day, we shouldn't make the measure the target; the stats are there to add depth to the experience of watching the game, not vice versa. (*you actually seem like you'd be pretty fun to chat with at a party)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 9, 2019 11:06:02 GMT -5
Hopefully Price gets healthy again soon and we have a nasty 1- 3 punch FIFY. E-Rod has outpitched Price over their mutual last 5 starts (Price had a bad first start, E-Rod a bad first 2). Price .291 xwOBA, .003 karma E-Rod .268, -.011.
The hangover / not ready for prime time thing was real. Sale .572 (start 1), .324 (next 4 1/2), .200 (last 2 1/2) Price .370 (start 1), .291 (since) E-Rod .369 (first 2), .268 (next 5) Porcello .410 (first 2), .354 (next 2), .300 (last 3)
Eovaldi .439 (first 3), .185 (last) fair opinion, but ERod is not consistent and is pitch count inefficient so I wouldn’t be ready to pencil him in there yet. All semantics though
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 9, 2019 11:44:40 GMT -5
Lost in all the excitement:
The previous MLB team record for most SO in a game with 0 BB was 20. Granted, it took 12 innings, but with 22 and 0 the Sox smashed that.
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Post by orion09 on May 9, 2019 12:07:01 GMT -5
They said Porcello had one in 2017
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Post by orion09 on May 9, 2019 12:12:02 GMT -5
It’s obviously early, but if JBJ keeps hitting this poorly, you have to wonder if the Sox actually do resign him. I can’t imagine a .170-hitting CF getting any kind of lucrative FA deal in this climate, especially on the wrong side of 30, so maybe they resign him on a cheap 1-2 year deal to bridge the gap until Duran/whoever is ready.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 9, 2019 12:22:03 GMT -5
As long as I'm being a bummer, the spectacular nature of that play doesn't actually make it any more valuable than just scoring a couple runs in the fourth inning or whatever. One of them is obviously a much more memorable way to win the game, but a win is a win is a win. Well you must be a lot of fun at parties.* For one thing, that catch created a much bigger swing in win expectancy than, say, a 2-run homer in the 4th inning, which is without even considering the difficulty of the play, which WE/WPA don't measure. But the gist of the comment is that from the perspective of the emotional experience of a fan, the catch, followed by Benintendi's homer and the victory, felt like more than just a win because it was the swing between a terrible loss (squandering the Sale start, blowing it in extra innings) and a thrilling victory. And I'm not a big believer in the idea that players' feelings and moods matter all that much for team success, but for whatever it's worth, they must be feeling pretty good about it too. At the end of the day, we shouldn't make the measure the target; the stats are there to add depth to the experience of watching the game, not vice versa. (*you actually seem like you'd be pretty fun to chat with at a party) Oh yeah I mean in terms of the emotional experience of a fan, stuff like that is what makes baseball worth watching, I just don't think it particularly means anything beyond that. And, I don't think it NEEDS to mean anything more than that, because ultimately the emotional experience of fans is the bedrock of this whole enterprise.
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Post by jimed14 on May 9, 2019 14:11:26 GMT -5
It’s obviously early, but if JBJ keeps hitting this poorly, you have to wonder if the Sox actually do resign him. I can’t imagine a .170-hitting CF getting any kind of lucrative FA deal in this climate, especially on the wrong side of 30, so maybe they resign him on a cheap 1-2 year deal to bridge the gap until Duran/whoever is ready. If he ends the season at .170, I don't see him in the majors.
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Post by jimed14 on May 9, 2019 14:15:35 GMT -5
Well you must be a lot of fun at parties.* For one thing, that catch created a much bigger swing in win expectancy than, say, a 2-run homer in the 4th inning, which is without even considering the difficulty of the play, which WE/WPA don't measure. But the gist of the comment is that from the perspective of the emotional experience of a fan, the catch, followed by Benintendi's homer and the victory, felt like more than just a win because it was the swing between a terrible loss (squandering the Sale start, blowing it in extra innings) and a thrilling victory. And I'm not a big believer in the idea that players' feelings and moods matter all that much for team success, but for whatever it's worth, they must be feeling pretty good about it too. At the end of the day, we shouldn't make the measure the target; the stats are there to add depth to the experience of watching the game, not vice versa. (*you actually seem like you'd be pretty fun to chat with at a party) Oh yeah I mean in terms of the emotional experience of a fan, stuff like that is what makes baseball worth watching, I just don't think it particularly means anything beyond that. And, I don't think it NEEDS to mean anything more than that, because ultimately the emotional experience of fans is the bedrock of this whole enterprise. That catch brought the probability of winning the game from 0% if he didn't make it to 46.4%. It does mean a lot more than a 2 run HR in the 4th inning because they had 0 opportunity to win that game without the catch unlike any possible event that happened in the 4th inning. If the timing of different plays didn't matter, bullpen order wouldn't matter.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 9, 2019 19:24:02 GMT -5
Oh yeah I mean in terms of the emotional experience of a fan, stuff like that is what makes baseball worth watching, I just don't think it particularly means anything beyond that. And, I don't think it NEEDS to mean anything more than that, because ultimately the emotional experience of fans is the bedrock of this whole enterprise. That catch brought the probability of winning the game from 0% if he didn't make it to 46.4%. It does mean a lot more than a 2 run HR in the 4th inning because they had 0 opportunity to win that game without the catch unlike any possible event that happened in the 4th inning. If the timing of different plays didn't matter, bullpen order wouldn't matter.Teetering on the brink of an epiphany...
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Post by telson13 on May 9, 2019 20:11:34 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/redsox/news/could-michael-chavis-play-outfield-for-the-red-soxSo it's in the Sox' back of their minds that Chavis might take some reps at outfield even though he's never done it before. “I’ve been telling him to go with [first-base coach Tom Goodwin] during batting practice and just stand there just to see the flight of the ball,” said Cora. “You never know." It's tough to have him play out there though. You need a lot of athleticism in RF Fenway, and Chavis isn't really athletic according to his report. He could probably be a LF, but Benintendi is already the LF. Benintendi is also a LF only it looks like at this point. He's unplayable in CF and he's never played a inning in RF before. Maybe Chavis can just give Benny a break on a day off or two, but that's JDM's job (for now). Either way, I don't see much coming from this idea. It would be great if he could play RF on a full-time basis, but again, Fenway Park, so he probably will never do it here. Chavis has a plus arm and a sprint speed of 27.7 m/s, with 27.0 being MLB avg in RF. baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2019&position=9&team=&min=10He’s probably got the basic starter kit for a COF spot. I think Benintendi can play an average CF if he’s getting reps. But Chavis in RF and Mookie in CF would be preferable. I thought they’d plan for this a few weeks ago, and it makes sense. They’re trying to keep his bat in the lineup, and odds are the positional flexibility pays dividends later. He’s proven to be playable at 2b, and with experience he might even be good. He’s had enough experience at 3b to at least fill in. Ideally, yes, he can play RF and maybe 1b as well. There’s gonna be some player movement with the salary crunch and getting ahead of it by a year or two is the smart move, especially with Duran climbing and looking like a possible starting CF.
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Post by jimed14 on May 9, 2019 21:58:35 GMT -5
That catch brought the probability of winning the game from 0% if he didn't make it to 46.4%. It does mean a lot more than a 2 run HR in the 4th inning because they had 0 opportunity to win that game without the catch unlike any possible event that happened in the 4th inning. If the timing of different plays didn't matter, bullpen order wouldn't matter.Teetering on the brink of an epiphany... Regardless, 0% to 46.4% is more than a 2 run HR in the 4th inning no matter how clever you get in being condescending.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 10, 2019 0:16:46 GMT -5
Yesterday was my birthday, and when I got home from the dinner with my family I had every intention of napping immediately. Of course I turned the game on to see how they were doing, and it was in the 4th. I told (ex-wife / housemate) Anita "I'll go to bed unless Sale is pitching a no-hitter; that's actually very unlikely" and went up to check.
After the O's tied the game, she had a great idea: we could both have a few bites of the tremendously great cake slices we had brought home with us. (At the restaurant we were all so stuffed from dinner that we had split a single slice, and we still didn't have an appetite for more.) So I turned the game off and missed just the seventh inning.
Meanwhile, I just rewatched JBJ's catch about six times with her and my brother (who hadn't seen it previously). He does not appear to look at the wall at any point! And yet he clearly slows down a tiny bit near the end in order to time his leap off the wall. Anita also points out that he seems to make the catch when the ball is directly above the wall, with his arm straight up.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 10, 2019 0:44:03 GMT -5
Teetering on the brink of an epiphany... Regardless, 0% to 46.4% is more than a 2 run HR in the 4th inning no matter how clever you get in being condescending. Also true that if he got a hit in the 4th with a runner on third instead of striking out, the Sox likely would have won in regulation and we wouldn't have gotten to see that great catch.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 10, 2019 7:15:18 GMT -5
Teetering on the brink of an epiphany... Regardless, 0% to 46.4% is more than a 2 run HR in the 4th inning no matter how clever you get in being condescending. And what's the significance of that?
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Post by telson13 on May 10, 2019 13:40:50 GMT -5
Chavis has a plus arm and a sprint speed of 27.7 m/s, with 27.0 being MLB avg in RF. baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2019&position=9&team=&min=10He’s probably got the basic starter kit for a COF spot. I think Benintendi can play an average CF if he’s getting reps. But Chavis in RF and Mookie in CF would be preferable. I thought they’d plan for this a few weeks ago, and it makes sense. They’re trying to keep his bat in the lineup, and odds are the positional flexibility pays dividends later. He’s proven to be playable at 2b, and with experience he might even be good. He’s had enough experience at 3b to at least fill in. Ideally, yes, he can play RF and maybe 1b as well. There’s gonna be some player movement with the salary crunch and getting ahead of it by a year or two is the smart move, especially with Duran climbing and looking like a possible starting CF. That's encouraging. Chavis was a guy that people worried didn't have any position a month ago. By the way, 27.7 ft/s (not m/s) converts to 18.9 mph for those like me who have no practical understanding of ft/s. Haha thank you, Lol force of habit on the m/s, which works out to something like 60 mph. I’d go out on a limb and call that 80 speed.
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