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Post by Canseco on Oct 6, 2021 19:21:25 GMT -5
I would much rather invest in Schwarber than Martinez, at this point. I’ll be hoping JD opts out to pursue more total cash across a handful of years juxtaposed with the one year (at 19 million-ish?) remaining here.
It would also be interesting, given his arm strength, if Bobby D could play some LF at Fenway next season and beyond. Cora could use that flexibility with a soon-to-be crowded situation at 1B/3B.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 6, 2021 20:17:30 GMT -5
I would much rather invest in Schwarber than Martinez, at this point. I’ll be hoping JD opts out to pursue more total cash across a handful of years juxtaposed with the one year (at 19 million-ish?) remaining here. It would also be interesting, given his arm strength, if Bobby D could play some LF at Fenway next season and beyond. Cora could use that flexibility with a soon-to-be crowded situation at 1B/3B. I proposed that in a question to the podcast before the season and it was summarily shot down...
Re: JD vs. Schwarber, I think I would prefer neither. If you're going to open up the safe, I'd rather go for a guy with multiple tools like Starling Marte, not to mention front-line pitching (rooting hard for the Cardinals right now so that Scherzer gets no more opportunities to make extra money and bond with his LAD buddies in the playoffs).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 8, 2021 11:38:51 GMT -5
I would much rather invest in Schwarber than Martinez, at this point. I’ll be hoping JD opts out to pursue more total cash across a handful of years juxtaposed with the one year (at 19 million-ish?) remaining here. It would also be interesting, given his arm strength, if Bobby D could play some LF at Fenway next season and beyond. Cora could use that flexibility with a soon-to-be crowded situation at 1B/3B. I proposed that in a question to the podcast before the season and it was summarily shot down...
Re: JD vs. Schwarber, I think I would prefer neither. If you're going to open up the safe, I'd rather go for a guy with multiple tools like Starling Marte, not to mention front-line pitching (rooting hard for the Cardinals right now so that Scherzer gets no more opportunities to make extra money and bond with his LAD buddies in the playoffs).
I'm a huge believer in that a professional hitter at DH is a huge advantage. Yet if you were going to move on players like Marte make sense. I certainly don't get the move on so you can pay Schwarber more money over more years, especially after a career year that still has him hitting below .270 on the year. I'd rather just have Dalbec DH than pay Schwarber, they are very similar type hitters.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 8, 2021 12:05:26 GMT -5
I proposed that in a question to the podcast before the season and it was summarily shot down...
Re: JD vs. Schwarber, I think I would prefer neither. If you're going to open up the safe, I'd rather go for a guy with multiple tools like Starling Marte, not to mention front-line pitching (rooting hard for the Cardinals right now so that Scherzer gets no more opportunities to make extra money and bond with his LAD buddies in the playoffs).
I'm a huge believer in that a professional hitter at DH is a huge advantage. Yet if you were going to move on players like Marte make sense. I certainly don't get the move on so you can pay Schwarber more money over more years, especially after a career year that still has him hitting below .270 on the year. I'd rather just have Dalbec DH than pay Schwarber, they are very similar type hitters. I can't agree that dalbec and Schwarber are similar type hitters, I know it was just one game but the wildcard game where dalbec couldn't catch up to the velocity and Schwarber took a 97 mph fastball up and out of the zone and deposited it into the bleachers. The overall numbers have shown dalbec struggles with velocity and I don't see that getting better. Schwarber to me is a whole different class of hitter than dalbec. Don't take this as me saying sign Schwarber no matter what though. As with anything the price and years are key. I definitely don't want them to overpay for a DH only type. I'd be fine with JD leaving and not bringing back Schwarber and spending that money elsewhere. I'd also be fine with bringing JD back for the one year or signing either one to a reasonable deal. I just don't want them to sign either one to 20+ million for 3+ years.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 8, 2021 12:14:16 GMT -5
I'm a huge believer in that a professional hitter at DH is a huge advantage. Yet if you were going to move on players like Marte make sense. I certainly don't get the move on so you can pay Schwarber more money over more years, especially after a career year that still has him hitting below .270 on the year. I'd rather just have Dalbec DH than pay Schwarber, they are very similar type hitters. I can't agree that dalbec and Schwarber are similar type hitters, I know it was just one game but the wildcard game where dalbec couldn't catch up to the velocity and Schwarber took a 97 mph fastball up and out of the zone and deposited it into the bleachers. The overall numbers have shown dalbec struggles with velocity and I don't see that getting better. Schwarber to me is a whole different class of hitter than dalbec. Don't take this as me saying sign Schwarber no matter what though. As with anything the price and years are key. I definitely don't want them to overpay for a DH only type. I'd be fine with JD leaving and not bringing back Schwarber and spending that money elsewhere. I'd also be fine with bringing JD back for the one year or signing either one to a reasonable deal. I just don't want them to sign either one to 20+ million for 3+ years. I would also be okay I think with not bringing back either one. Just wanted to chime in and say that Dalbec and Schwarber are not comparable not just on velocity, but Schwarber has a much higher walk rate and K/BB. He is indeed a whole different class of hitter. I’m not sure Dalbec ever develops into the kind of hitter Schwarber is where he can offset a lower BA with a very good walk rate.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 8, 2021 13:07:28 GMT -5
Hoping JD opts out. The Rays show how much athleticism is important. At least, a trio of Devers, Casas, and Dalbec can take turns at DH. To me, a major importance of Dalbec developing is his ability to do what Youk could do....move between 3rd and 1st. Devers may be a better 3rd basemen if he could just DH 30-40 times a year. I like Schwarber but I'm torn, if JD opts out. Hoping after playing in Arizona, Casas may be ready by July next year.
I marvel at how the Rays outfielders get to balls in the gaps. Not sure how or who to target, but I'd love to see better defense next year. Our pitchers need to be too fine and would benefit greatly if they had more confidence in the D behind them.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 8, 2021 13:55:27 GMT -5
Hoping JD opts out. The Rays show how much athleticism is important. At least, a trio of Devers, Casas, and Dalbec can take turns at DH. To me, a major importance of Dalbec developing is his ability to do what Youk could do....move between 3rd and 1st. Devers may be a better 3rd basemen if he could just DH 30-40 times a year. I like Schwarber but I'm torn, if JD opts out. Hoping after playing in Arizona, Casas may be ready by July next year. I marvel at how the Rays outfielders get to balls in the gaps. Not sure how or who to target, but I'd love to see better defense next year. Our pitchers need to be too fine and would benefit greatly if they had more confidence in the D behind them. Not JD related but to be honest I wouldn't hate trying to get Keirmaier from the Rays if he didn't cost that much. Slated to make 12 million next year with an option for 2023 for 13. 12 million must make him one of if not their highest paid player. Would think they'd entertain shopping him and I'm not enamored with any of the free agent outfielders this year.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 8, 2021 14:07:08 GMT -5
I proposed that in a question to the podcast before the season and it was summarily shot down...
Re: JD vs. Schwarber, I think I would prefer neither. If you're going to open up the safe, I'd rather go for a guy with multiple tools like Starling Marte, not to mention front-line pitching (rooting hard for the Cardinals right now so that Scherzer gets no more opportunities to make extra money and bond with his LAD buddies in the playoffs).
I'm a huge believer in that a professional hitter at DH is a huge advantage. Yet if you were going to move on players like Marte make sense. I certainly don't get the move on so you can pay Schwarber more money over more years, especially after a career year that still has him hitting below .270 on the year. I'd rather just have Dalbec DH than pay Schwarber, they are very similar type hitters. Why the infatuation with batting average? Only 12 qualified players in MLB had a higher OBP than Schwarber this season.
And while it's true that 2021 was a "career year" his xwOBA has been on a consistent upward trajectory, with the asterisked exception of 2020. At 28, he's probably near his peak, but there's also good reason to expect he can maintain it for a few seasons. JDM, by contrast, has been on a clear downward trajectory, 2020 excluded, albeit from a higher peak than Schwarber, but that is also to be expected for a guy who just turned 34. I certainly think there are reasonable grounds for being skeptical of Schwarber, but I don't think it would be reasonable to expect JDM to be the better hitter over the next few seasons.
In a fangraphs chat Dan Szymborski mention that ZIPS would project something like a 3/58 contract for him. I don't know if I believe he would come that cheap, but if so I'd do it in a heartbeat.
ADD: I kind of think Kris Bryant makes a decent amount of sense, from a Bloomian perspective.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 8, 2021 16:39:00 GMT -5
I'm a huge believer in that a professional hitter at DH is a huge advantage. Yet if you were going to move on players like Marte make sense. I certainly don't get the move on so you can pay Schwarber more money over more years, especially after a career year that still has him hitting below .270 on the year. I'd rather just have Dalbec DH than pay Schwarber, they are very similar type hitters. I can't agree that dalbec and Schwarber are similar type hitters, I know it was just one game but the wildcard game where dalbec couldn't catch up to the velocity and Schwarber took a 97 mph fastball up and out of the zone and deposited it into the bleachers. The overall numbers have shown dalbec struggles with velocity and I don't see that getting better. Schwarber to me is a whole different class of hitter than dalbec. Don't take this as me saying sign Schwarber no matter what though. As with anything the price and years are key. I definitely don't want them to overpay for a DH only type. I'd be fine with JD leaving and not bringing back Schwarber and spending that money elsewhere. I'd also be fine with bringing JD back for the one year or signing either one to a reasonable deal. I just don't want them to sign either one to 20+ million for 3+ years. A big thing for me is Dalbec making adjustments, .219 .673 OPS first half, .269 .957 OPS second half. Add in his .263 .959 OPS from last year. If he's the guy from the second half of this year or the guy from last year, you're getting similar production for a ton less. I will admit maybe he's just a DH type guy against LHP and you need to find him a partner. I'll look at this differently if someone can give me a reason Schwarber performs as basically a new hitter going forward. I just wouldn't expect .291 .957 OPS going forward, yet if he does he'll most likely be much better.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 8, 2021 17:03:49 GMT -5
I'm a huge believer in that a professional hitter at DH is a huge advantage. Yet if you were going to move on players like Marte make sense. I certainly don't get the move on so you can pay Schwarber more money over more years, especially after a career year that still has him hitting below .270 on the year. I'd rather just have Dalbec DH than pay Schwarber, they are very similar type hitters. Why the infatuation with batting average? Only 12 qualified players in MLB had a higher OBP than Schwarber this season.
And while it's true that 2021 was a "career year" his xwOBA has been on a consistent upward trajectory, with the asterisked exception of 2020. At 28, he's probably near his peak, but there's also good reason to expect he can maintain it for a few seasons. JDM, by contrast, has been on a clear downward trajectory, 2020 excluded, albeit from a higher peak than Schwarber, but that is also to be expected for a guy who just turned 34. I certainly think there are reasonable grounds for being skeptical of Schwarber, but I don't think it would be reasonable to expect JDM to be the better hitter over the next few seasons.
In a fangraphs chat Dan Szymborski mention that ZIPS would project something like a 3/58 contract for him. I don't know if I believe he would come that cheap, but if so I'd do it in a heartbeat.
ADD: I kind of think Kris Bryant makes a decent amount of sense, from a Bloomian perspective.
Because I will only spend big money on a DH if he's a professional hitter, not just a good slugger. The difference being a high average. Like I said before there is nothing in statcast data that shows a massive decline for Martinez. What if his wrist was the reason? Huge decline right after that injury. There is no data to show he's going to be .374 OBP going forward. For 72 games he was right about at his career average OBP, then bam he hits .291 .435 .957 in 41 games for us. Maybe the best stretch in his career, yet it's just 41 games. Michael Chavis had one hell of a 41 game stretch at one point. I'm highly skeptical of small sample sizes meaning more than a hot streak or career year. It can certainly happen, yet it's the hardest thing to predict in Baseball. If there is a guy that can adjust and fight off father time, I'll bet on JD Martinez.
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Post by e on Oct 8, 2021 17:11:56 GMT -5
Why the infatuation with batting average? Only 12 qualified players in MLB had a higher OBP than Schwarber this season.
And while it's true that 2021 was a "career year" his xwOBA has been on a consistent upward trajectory, with the asterisked exception of 2020. At 28, he's probably near his peak, but there's also good reason to expect he can maintain it for a few seasons. JDM, by contrast, has been on a clear downward trajectory, 2020 excluded, albeit from a higher peak than Schwarber, but that is also to be expected for a guy who just turned 34. I certainly think there are reasonable grounds for being skeptical of Schwarber, but I don't think it would be reasonable to expect JDM to be the better hitter over the next few seasons.
In a fangraphs chat Dan Szymborski mention that ZIPS would project something like a 3/58 contract for him. I don't know if I believe he would come that cheap, but if so I'd do it in a heartbeat.
ADD: I kind of think Kris Bryant makes a decent amount of sense, from a Bloomian perspective.
Because I will only spend big money on a DH if he's a professional hitter, not just a good slugger. The difference being a high average. Like I said before there is nothing in statcast data that shows a massive decline for Martinez. What if his wrist was the reason? Huge decline right after that injury. There is no data to show he's going to be .374 OBP going forward. For 72 games he was right about at his career average OBP, then bam he hits .291 .435 .957 in 41 games for us. Maybe the best stretch in his career, yet it's just 41 games. Michael Chavis had one hell of a 41 game stretch at one point. I'm highly skeptical of small sample sizes meaning more than a hot streak or career year. It can certainly happen, yet it's the hardest thing to predict in Baseball. If there is a guy that can adjust and fight off father time, I'll bet on JD Martinez. What makes Schwarber not a professional hitter? He has one of lowest chase rates in baseball(89th percentile), much better than Martinez's(11th percentile). Higher barrel rate this year then Martinez, better expected stats, better stats in general. I don't get why him having a low average makes him less of a professional hitter? It's not even low compared to league average. Shouldn't a professional hitter be a guy who controls the strike zone, doesn't expand, and makes solid contact? Schwarber is that. I can't understand your infatuation with average and how it correlates to being a "professional" hitter. Does not make sense.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 8, 2021 17:16:59 GMT -5
Why the infatuation with batting average? Only 12 qualified players in MLB had a higher OBP than Schwarber this season.
And while it's true that 2021 was a "career year" his xwOBA has been on a consistent upward trajectory, with the asterisked exception of 2020. At 28, he's probably near his peak, but there's also good reason to expect he can maintain it for a few seasons. JDM, by contrast, has been on a clear downward trajectory, 2020 excluded, albeit from a higher peak than Schwarber, but that is also to be expected for a guy who just turned 34. I certainly think there are reasonable grounds for being skeptical of Schwarber, but I don't think it would be reasonable to expect JDM to be the better hitter over the next few seasons.
In a fangraphs chat Dan Szymborski mention that ZIPS would project something like a 3/58 contract for him. I don't know if I believe he would come that cheap, but if so I'd do it in a heartbeat.
ADD: I kind of think Kris Bryant makes a decent amount of sense, from a Bloomian perspective.
Because I will only spend big money on a DH if he's a professional hitter, not just a good slugger. The difference being a high average. Like I said before there is nothing in statcast data that shows a massive decline for Martinez. What if his wrist was the reason? Huge decline right after that injury. There is no data to show he's going to be .374 OBP going forward. For 72 games he was right about at his career average OBP, then bam he hits .291 .435 .957 in 41 games for us. Maybe the best stretch in his career, yet it's just 41 games. Michael Chavis had one hell of a 41 game stretch at one point. I'm highly skeptical of small sample sizes meaning more than a hot streak or career year. It can certainly happen, yet it's the hardest thing to predict in Baseball. If there is a guy that can adjust and fight off father time, I'll bet on JD Martinez. My concern about JD is that he's had essentially one really good month since turning 32, and he's 34 now. Why bet on him fending off father time (which he doesn't show much evidence of being able to do) rather than just signing a younger player?
I have no idea what distinction you're making between "professional hitter" and "just a good slugger." Schwarber's ABs have looked FAR better to me than JD's this season. Also, if you want to ding him for only having a .340 OBP in Washington this season then you need to also credit him for his .570 SLG there, which is higher than he's had here. Can't have it both ways.
Like I said, I don't think it's crazy to not be in love with Schwarber, who is limited on defense, has a naturally low BABIP, and might not be an ideal fit for Fenway (though I don't think he's terrible either). I could definitely be persuaded there are better FA options. But I am not grokking the JDM>Schwarber argument.
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Post by e on Oct 8, 2021 17:23:54 GMT -5
Because I will only spend big money on a DH if he's a professional hitter, not just a good slugger. The difference being a high average. Like I said before there is nothing in statcast data that shows a massive decline for Martinez. What if his wrist was the reason? Huge decline right after that injury. There is no data to show he's going to be .374 OBP going forward. For 72 games he was right about at his career average OBP, then bam he hits .291 .435 .957 in 41 games for us. Maybe the best stretch in his career, yet it's just 41 games. Michael Chavis had one hell of a 41 game stretch at one point. I'm highly skeptical of small sample sizes meaning more than a hot streak or career year. It can certainly happen, yet it's the hardest thing to predict in Baseball. If there is a guy that can adjust and fight off father time, I'll bet on JD Martinez. My concern about JD is that he's had essentially one really good month since turning 32, and he's 34 now. Why bet on him fending off father time (which he doesn't show much evidence of being able to do) rather than just signing a younger player?
I have no idea what distinction you're making between "professional hitter" and "just a good slugger." Schwarber's ABs have looked FAR better to me than JD's this season. Also, if you want to ding him for only having a .340 OBP in Washington this season then you need to also credit him for his .570 SLG there, which is higher than he's had here. Can't have it both ways.
Like I said, I don't think it's crazy to not be in love with Schwarber, who is limited on defense, has a naturally low BABIP, and might not be an ideal fit for Fenway (though I don't think he's terrible either). I could definitely be persuaded there are better FA options. But I am not grokking the JDM>Schwarber argument.
To add on to the professional hitter issue... If average is your basis for a professional hitter and that's what you want out of the DH spot, then would you rather have Nick Madrigal be your DH over Schwarber? Because Madrigal does have a better average so does that deem him better in your eyes? I'd argue many people would take Schwarber over Madrigal any day of the week.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 8, 2021 23:54:35 GMT -5
A lot of comments here appear to have been written before Game 2...
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 9, 2021 11:09:38 GMT -5
Because I will only spend big money on a DH if he's a professional hitter, not just a good slugger. The difference being a high average. Like I said before there is nothing in statcast data that shows a massive decline for Martinez. What if his wrist was the reason? Huge decline right after that injury. There is no data to show he's going to be .374 OBP going forward. For 72 games he was right about at his career average OBP, then bam he hits .291 .435 .957 in 41 games for us. Maybe the best stretch in his career, yet it's just 41 games. Michael Chavis had one hell of a 41 game stretch at one point. I'm highly skeptical of small sample sizes meaning more than a hot streak or career year. It can certainly happen, yet it's the hardest thing to predict in Baseball. If there is a guy that can adjust and fight off father time, I'll bet on JD Martinez. What makes Schwarber not a professional hitter? He has one of lowest chase rates in baseball(89th percentile), much better than Martinez's(11th percentile). Higher barrel rate this year then Martinez, better expected stats, better stats in general. I don't get why him having a low average makes him less of a professional hitter? It's not even low compared to league average. Shouldn't a professional hitter be a guy who controls the strike zone, doesn't expand, and makes solid contact? Schwarber is that. I can't understand your infatuation with average and how it correlates to being a "professional" hitter. Does not make sense. Simple, he has a .237 career average. I see him as a slugger. He's not like Manny, Ortiz or even Mo Vaughn, he's more like Dalbec. To clear things up, I see a professional hitter as a guy that does it all. Has a high average, takes walks and hits for power when we're talking about DH, obviously things change based on position. I'm only paying DHs big money when they meet that criteria. Most likely a poor choice of words on my part.
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Post by e on Oct 9, 2021 11:36:31 GMT -5
What makes Schwarber not a professional hitter? He has one of lowest chase rates in baseball(89th percentile), much better than Martinez's(11th percentile). Higher barrel rate this year then Martinez, better expected stats, better stats in general. I don't get why him having a low average makes him less of a professional hitter? It's not even low compared to league average. Shouldn't a professional hitter be a guy who controls the strike zone, doesn't expand, and makes solid contact? Schwarber is that. I can't understand your infatuation with average and how it correlates to being a "professional" hitter. Does not make sense. Simple, he has a .237 career average. I see him as a slugger. He's not like Manny, Ortiz or even Mo Vaughn, he's more like Dalbec. To clear things up, I see a professional hitter as a guy that does it all. Has a high average, takes walks and hits for power when we're talking about DH, obviously things change based on position. I'm only paying DHs big money when they meet that criteria. Most likely a poor choice of words on my part. Very fair point, thank you for elaborating. I am not the biggest Schwarber resigning supporter, but I am also not too keen on J.D. coming back either. I do agree I don't want a DH for big money that is just a high strikeout slugger, which is why Schwarber is not high on my list. Nor is J.D. for me, due to some regression he's shown and age. But also I know people were saying the same stuff about Ortiz back in 2009, and look how that turned out. I hope I am very wrong Edit: I do think Schwarber has a chance to sustain this type of year though, which is why I still am interested in him
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 9, 2021 11:44:39 GMT -5
Because I will only spend big money on a DH if he's a professional hitter, not just a good slugger. The difference being a high average. Like I said before there is nothing in statcast data that shows a massive decline for Martinez. What if his wrist was the reason? Huge decline right after that injury. There is no data to show he's going to be .374 OBP going forward. For 72 games he was right about at his career average OBP, then bam he hits .291 .435 .957 in 41 games for us. Maybe the best stretch in his career, yet it's just 41 games. Michael Chavis had one hell of a 41 game stretch at one point. I'm highly skeptical of small sample sizes meaning more than a hot streak or career year. It can certainly happen, yet it's the hardest thing to predict in Baseball. If there is a guy that can adjust and fight off father time, I'll bet on JD Martinez. My concern about JD is that he's had essentially one really good month since turning 32, and he's 34 now. Why bet on him fending off father time (which he doesn't show much evidence of being able to do) rather than just signing a younger player?
I have no idea what distinction you're making between "professional hitter" and "just a good slugger." Schwarber's ABs have looked FAR better to me than JD's this season. Also, if you want to ding him for only having a .340 OBP in Washington this season then you need to also credit him for his .570 SLG there, which is higher than he's had here. Can't have it both ways.
Like I said, I don't think it's crazy to not be in love with Schwarber, who is limited on defense, has a naturally low BABIP, and might not be an ideal fit for Fenway (though I don't think he's terrible either). I could definitely be persuaded there are better FA options. But I am not grokking the JDM>Schwarber argument.
Who's the other options? Sure if there was a younger Martinez I'd rather sign him. He's the best option I see and given his age he will likely on take smaller shorter deals. I have no issue about him opting in or something like 3 years 45 million. I'm not giving him some massive deal. I'm a stats guys, the numbers don't lie. You want to base it off scouting in a limited sample size. Matt Barnes goes on stretches every year were he looks like an elite reliever. Yet every year he also has bad stretches. That's baseball. I'll bet on Martinez fighting off father time, than Schwarber is a completely new hitter. I gave details why I believe in Martinez in past threads. Statcast doesn't show a major decline and he just keeps getting better the farther out you go from his wrist injury. Schwarber is a good slugger, I don't think I've said otherwise. He's also a good slugger with a career .237 batting average. I'll certainly change my tone if he's turned some corner and is going to have a much higher average going forward. I'm just looking at his stats and projecting what you get in future seasons and I'm not likely what I see. Maybe I'm dead wrong, crazy crap does happen every year in Baseball. I'm just not betting on it with a large long-term deal. Guys that have career years as to be free agent scare the hell out me. He's setting career highs in average, on base percentage, slugging, everything down to bwar.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 9, 2021 14:36:21 GMT -5
My concern about JD is that he's had essentially one really good month since turning 32, and he's 34 now. Why bet on him fending off father time (which he doesn't show much evidence of being able to do) rather than just signing a younger player?
I have no idea what distinction you're making between "professional hitter" and "just a good slugger." Schwarber's ABs have looked FAR better to me than JD's this season. Also, if you want to ding him for only having a .340 OBP in Washington this season then you need to also credit him for his .570 SLG there, which is higher than he's had here. Can't have it both ways.
Like I said, I don't think it's crazy to not be in love with Schwarber, who is limited on defense, has a naturally low BABIP, and might not be an ideal fit for Fenway (though I don't think he's terrible either). I could definitely be persuaded there are better FA options. But I am not grokking the JDM>Schwarber argument.
Who's the other options? Sure if there was a younger Martinez I'd rather sign him. He's the best option I see and given his age he will likely on take smaller shorter deals. I have no issue about him opting in or something like 3 years 45 million. I'm not giving him some massive deal. I'm a stats guys, the numbers don't lie. You want to base it off scouting in a limited sample size. Matt Barnes goes on stretches every year were he looks like an elite reliever. Yet every year he also has bad stretches. That's baseball. I'll bet on Martinez fighting off father time, than Schwarber is a completely new hitter. I gave details why I believe in Martinez in past threads. Statcast doesn't show a major decline and he just keeps getting better the farther out you go from his wrist injury. Schwarber is a good slugger, I don't think I've said otherwise. He's also a good slugger with a career .237 batting average. I'll certainly change my tone if he's turned some corner and is going to have a much higher average going forward. I'm just looking at his stats and projecting what you get in future seasons and I'm not likely what I see. Maybe I'm dead wrong, crazy crap does happen every year in Baseball. I'm just not betting on it with a large long-term deal. Guys that have career years as to be free agent scare the hell out me. He's setting career highs in average, on base percentage, slugging, everything down to bwar. I'm confused how you can come to the conclusion that Schwarber is a completely different hitter while noting statcast for other players. If you sift through Schwarber's statistics on either baseballsavant or fangraphs, you'll see that between 2021 and his career averages, almost everything is identical - the consistency is actually quite amazing. Of the primary batting statistics, only his batting average is high this year (by .029 higher than career average) which is clearly driven by a higher BABIP (.032 higher than career average). The increased BABIP seems to be driven by his career high barrel/sweet spot numbers. Essentially he hit the ball at a good trajectory with good bat-speed at a higher rate than he ever has, so his batting average was .029 higher than his career batting average. None of us know if Schwarber will continue to be as good this year (or continue to improve) but given that this was his first full season of what is normally a player's peak years (27-31) and there should be optimism that he has made slight improvements. If you leave out the odd 2020 season, his 4/5 year xwOBA trajectory has been: .340, .347, .372, .396, which shows improvement each year. If the Sox could get Schwarber for something in the neighborhood of 4/85 (w/o opt-outs) then I would be ecstatic. I would also be ecstatic if Martinez would be willing to give up the last year of his deal at 19.3mil to take a 45/3 deal, but I find that unlikely as Martinez would only receive 25.7mil for adding 2 years to his contract - more likely he would want the 3/45 deal tacked onto the end of his current deal, and I would be a bit wary of that. I would also be happy if Martinez opts-in AND they give Schwarber a long-term contract - this would let them give Martinez rest days (old man can't step over 2nd base without an injury!), give the OFers rest days and let them hold off from rushing Casas to the majors (only suggesting this would be good for 1 year).
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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2021 14:53:24 GMT -5
My concern about JD is that he's had essentially one really good month since turning 32, and he's 34 now. Why bet on him fending off father time (which he doesn't show much evidence of being able to do) rather than just signing a younger player?
I have no idea what distinction you're making between "professional hitter" and "just a good slugger." Schwarber's ABs have looked FAR better to me than JD's this season. Also, if you want to ding him for only having a .340 OBP in Washington this season then you need to also credit him for his .570 SLG there, which is higher than he's had here. Can't have it both ways.
Like I said, I don't think it's crazy to not be in love with Schwarber, who is limited on defense, has a naturally low BABIP, and might not be an ideal fit for Fenway (though I don't think he's terrible either). I could definitely be persuaded there are better FA options. But I am not grokking the JDM>Schwarber argument.
Who's the other options? Sure if there was a younger Martinez I'd rather sign him. He's the best option I see and given his age he will likely on take smaller shorter deals. I have no issue about him opting in or something like 3 years 45 million. I'm not giving him some massive deal. I'm a stats guys, the numbers don't lie. You want to base it off scouting in a limited sample size. Matt Barnes goes on stretches every year were he looks like an elite reliever. Yet every year he also has bad stretches. That's baseball. I'll bet on Martinez fighting off father time, than Schwarber is a completely new hitter. I gave details why I believe in Martinez in past threads. Statcast doesn't show a major decline and he just keeps getting better the farther out you go from his wrist injury. Schwarber is a good slugger, I don't think I've said otherwise. He's also a good slugger with a career .237 batting average. I'll certainly change my tone if he's turned some corner and is going to have a much higher average going forward. I'm just looking at his stats and projecting what you get in future seasons and I'm not likely what I see. Maybe I'm dead wrong, crazy crap does happen every year in Baseball. I'm just not betting on it with a large long-term deal. Guys that have career years as to be free agent scare the hell out me. He's setting career highs in average, on base percentage, slugging, everything down to bwar. My whole argument is built around aging curves, but you're not addressing that at all. The xwOBA/wOBA/wRC+ trajectories all tell a very consistent story with JDM (with only 2020* as the outlier): he's a once-elite hitter, who is now a good hitter, who would probably be less-than-good by the end of any 3-year deal.
Schwarber is also on a very typical aging curve, but he's 6 years younger, which means he'll probably be close to his peak for the next few years. You keep calling it a "career year" but every season has been a career year for him since 2018 (not counting 2020*) because he keeps getting better!
You want a bigger sample than just this season? Since the start of 2019, Schwarber has a 123 wRC+; JD Martinez, by contrast, has... a 124 wRC+. And Schwarber is 6 years younger. So again, it does not seem reasonable to me to predict that JDM will be the better hitter over the next 3 years.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Oct 9, 2021 15:47:56 GMT -5
A Phillies friend says are discussing whether JD would be a good sign, partly assuming there will be a DH at least eventually.
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Post by orion09 on Oct 10, 2021 0:30:34 GMT -5
My concern about JD is that he's had essentially one really good month since turning 32, and he's 34 now. Why bet on him fending off father time (which he doesn't show much evidence of being able to do) rather than just signing a younger player?
I have no idea what distinction you're making between "professional hitter" and "just a good slugger." Schwarber's ABs have looked FAR better to me than JD's this season. Also, if you want to ding him for only having a .340 OBP in Washington this season then you need to also credit him for his .570 SLG there, which is higher than he's had here. Can't have it both ways.
Like I said, I don't think it's crazy to not be in love with Schwarber, who is limited on defense, has a naturally low BABIP, and might not be an ideal fit for Fenway (though I don't think he's terrible either). I could definitely be persuaded there are better FA options. But I am not grokking the JDM>Schwarber argument.
I'm a stats guys, the numbers don't lie. You want to base it off scouting in a limited sample size. Matt Barnes goes on stretches every year were he looks like an elite reliever. Yet every year he also has bad stretches. That's baseball. I'll bet on Martinez fighting off father time, than Schwarber is a completely new hitter. I gave details why I believe in Martinez in past threads. Statcast doesn't show a major decline and he just keeps getting better the farther out you go from his wrist injury. Speaking of Statcast, the data I’d really want to see on JDM, which AFAIK is not data we’re privvy to, is bat speed. To my eye, his bat has appeared slower at times this year, though tough to say how much of that was the wrist injury. If the bat speed has fallen off, I’d feel much less comfortable with a 3Y deal. OTOH, if it still looks strong (outside of any injured periods), I’d be more willing to bet on him having a gentle, Big Papi-like decline.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 10, 2021 7:21:51 GMT -5
I'm a stats guys, the numbers don't lie. You want to base it off scouting in a limited sample size. Matt Barnes goes on stretches every year were he looks like an elite reliever. Yet every year he also has bad stretches. That's baseball. I'll bet on Martinez fighting off father time, than Schwarber is a completely new hitter. I gave details why I believe in Martinez in past threads. Statcast doesn't show a major decline and he just keeps getting better the farther out you go from his wrist injury. Speaking of Statcast, the data I’d really want to see on JDM, which AFAIK is not data we’re privvy to, is bat speed. To my eye, his bat has appeared slower at times this year, though tough to say how much of that was the wrist injury. If the bat speed has fallen off, I’d feel much less comfortable with a 3Y deal. OTOH, if it still looks strong (outside of any injured periods), I’d be more willing to bet on him having a gentle, Big Papi-like decline. What's a gentle Papi-like decline? Ortiz terrorized pitchers on his way out the door when he hit .315 with 38 HRs, 48 doubles, 127 RBI, .601 SA, and .420 OBP in 2016 in his age 40 season. I think Ortiz decided declining wasn't for him. Lol
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Post by threeifbaerga on Oct 10, 2021 10:24:53 GMT -5
Speaking of Statcast, the data I’d really want to see on JDM, which AFAIK is not data we’re privvy to, is bat speed. To my eye, his bat has appeared slower at times this year, though tough to say how much of that was the wrist injury. If the bat speed has fallen off, I’d feel much less comfortable with a 3Y deal. OTOH, if it still looks strong (outside of any injured periods), I’d be more willing to bet on him having a gentle, Big Papi-like decline. What's a gentle Papi-like decline? Ortiz terrorized pitchers on his way out the door when he hit .315 with 38 HRs, 48 doubles, 127 RBI, .601 SA, and .420 OBP in 2016 in his age 40 season. I think Ortiz decided declining wasn't for him. Lol Makes you wonder how long he'd have been around if it weren't for his knee. Give me 45 year old Papi at DH tonight.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 10, 2021 10:33:19 GMT -5
Who's the other options? Sure if there was a younger Martinez I'd rather sign him. He's the best option I see and given his age he will likely on take smaller shorter deals. I have no issue about him opting in or something like 3 years 45 million. I'm not giving him some massive deal. I'm a stats guys, the numbers don't lie. You want to base it off scouting in a limited sample size. Matt Barnes goes on stretches every year were he looks like an elite reliever. Yet every year he also has bad stretches. That's baseball. I'll bet on Martinez fighting off father time, than Schwarber is a completely new hitter. I gave details why I believe in Martinez in past threads. Statcast doesn't show a major decline and he just keeps getting better the farther out you go from his wrist injury. Schwarber is a good slugger, I don't think I've said otherwise. He's also a good slugger with a career .237 batting average. I'll certainly change my tone if he's turned some corner and is going to have a much higher average going forward. I'm just looking at his stats and projecting what you get in future seasons and I'm not likely what I see. Maybe I'm dead wrong, crazy crap does happen every year in Baseball. I'm just not betting on it with a large long-term deal. Guys that have career years as to be free agent scare the hell out me. He's setting career highs in average, on base percentage, slugging, everything down to bwar. I'm confused how you can come to the conclusion that Schwarber is a completely different hitter while noting statcast for other players. If you sift through Schwarber's statistics on either baseballsavant or fangraphs, you'll see that between 2021 and his career averages, almost everything is identical - the consistency is actually quite amazing. Of the primary batting statistics, only his batting average is high this year (by .029 higher than career average) which is clearly driven by a higher BABIP (.032 higher than career average). The increased BABIP seems to be driven by his career high barrel/sweet spot numbers. Essentially he hit the ball at a good trajectory with good bat-speed at a higher rate than he ever has, so his batting average was .029 higher than his career batting average. None of us know if Schwarber will continue to be as good this year (or continue to improve) but given that this was his first full season of what is normally a player's peak years (27-31) and there should be optimism that he has made slight improvements. If you leave out the odd 2020 season, his 4/5 year xwOBA trajectory has been: .340, .347, .372, .396, which shows improvement each year. If the Sox could get Schwarber for something in the neighborhood of 4/85 (w/o opt-outs) then I would be ecstatic. I would also be ecstatic if Martinez would be willing to give up the last year of his deal at 19.3mil to take a 45/3 deal, but I find that unlikely as Martinez would only receive 25.7mil for adding 2 years to his contract - more likely he would want the 3/45 deal tacked onto the end of his current deal, and I would be a bit wary of that. I would also be happy if Martinez opts-in AND they give Schwarber a long-term contract - this would let them give Martinez rest days (old man can't step over 2nd base without an injury!), give the OFers rest days and let them hold off from rushing Casas to the majors (only suggesting this would be good for 1 year). My biggest issue with him is his average, if we're talking about him at DH. I want no part of 4 years 85 million. I hate expected wOBA, it was crazy with Bradley for years. His actual wOBA is .333, .343, .357 and .392 which shows you the massive jump this year. You going to like paying him over 20 million if his average goes back down and his wOBA is around .360? It's all how you project him going forward and that's one of the hardest things to do in Baseball.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 10, 2021 10:49:11 GMT -5
Who's the other options? Sure if there was a younger Martinez I'd rather sign him. He's the best option I see and given his age he will likely on take smaller shorter deals. I have no issue about him opting in or something like 3 years 45 million. I'm not giving him some massive deal. I'm a stats guys, the numbers don't lie. You want to base it off scouting in a limited sample size. Matt Barnes goes on stretches every year were he looks like an elite reliever. Yet every year he also has bad stretches. That's baseball. I'll bet on Martinez fighting off father time, than Schwarber is a completely new hitter. I gave details why I believe in Martinez in past threads. Statcast doesn't show a major decline and he just keeps getting better the farther out you go from his wrist injury. Schwarber is a good slugger, I don't think I've said otherwise. He's also a good slugger with a career .237 batting average. I'll certainly change my tone if he's turned some corner and is going to have a much higher average going forward. I'm just looking at his stats and projecting what you get in future seasons and I'm not likely what I see. Maybe I'm dead wrong, crazy crap does happen every year in Baseball. I'm just not betting on it with a large long-term deal. Guys that have career years as to be free agent scare the hell out me. He's setting career highs in average, on base percentage, slugging, everything down to bwar. My whole argument is built around aging curves, but you're not addressing that at all. The xwOBA/wOBA/wRC+ trajectories all tell a very consistent story with JDM (with only 2020* as the outlier): he's a once-elite hitter, who is now a good hitter, who would probably be less-than-good by the end of any 3-year deal.
Schwarber is also on a very typical aging curve, but he's 6 years younger, which means he'll probably be close to his peak for the next few years. You keep calling it a "career year" but every season has been a career year for him since 2018 (not counting 2020*) because he keeps getting better!
You want a bigger sample than just this season? Since the start of 2019, Schwarber has a 123 wRC+; JD Martinez, by contrast, has... a 124 wRC+. And Schwarber is 6 years younger. So again, it does not seem reasonable to me to predict that JDM will be the better hitter over the next 3 years.
There's slight improvements and then massive jumps. Take wOBA going from .357 to .392 is massive, if it was like .365 I'd be less worried about regression. You either see a career year or a new hitter. I don't think I've said Martinez will be the better hitter in three years. I'd bet on him being better next year and he will take less money and years to sign. If I'm going to bet on older players beating father time, former elite hitters at DH is one I'm betting on. I'd also be fine if Martinez is slightly below using something like OPS+ if he has a much higher average, compared to a lower average and higher slugging. I'm a fan of putting together hits, having a higher team average than just sluggers with low averages.
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