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7/18 Gameday Thread: I Got Your Bello, Listen What I Say, Oh
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Post by telson13 on Jul 18, 2019 21:09:43 GMT -5
That's one of the strangest looking sliders I've ever seen, especially for such a low release point. Sale throws from that angle on the left and his slider moves completely differently. It almost looks more like the most absurd cutter you've ever seen. I thought it looked like a real hard spike curve. A little horizontal movement but very sudden 1-7 drop. Agree that it’s a strange (in a good way) break being as low-3/4 as he is. Nasty. |
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Post by telson13 on Jul 18, 2019 21:12:28 GMT -5
Saw that...real good to see him follow up a tremendous start with another very good one. Could be he’s found the consistency with his pitches that he was lacking earlier in the year. Seems like a very projectable guy; lots of physical development to do there. |
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Post by ramireja on Jul 18, 2019 21:14:46 GMT -5
Great stuff on the farm today. Here's another: Brandon Howlett 3/5, 3 2B (20)
He's having one of the more underrated years in our system with a .362 OBP and 25 XBH (Top 10 in our system) in an aggressive first full season assignment.
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 18, 2019 21:47:09 GMT -5
Dalbec 3 for 5 today
Duran 0 for 5 with 3ks. Severe struggles since promotion. No power, and not walking. Down to a .212 average
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 18, 2019 22:25:55 GMT -5
Lowell has outscored Tri-City in the doubleheader 22-5 so far, they're into the bottom of the sixth of the nightcap. If they hold on to win they'll have a 7 1/2 game lead already in the Stedler Division.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2019 23:15:38 GMT -5
Great stuff on the farm today. Here's another: Brandon Howlett 3/5, 3 2B (20) He's having one of the more underrated years in our system with a .362 OBP and 25 XBH (Top 10 in our system) in an aggressive first full season assignment. Kole Cottam also having a quietly solid season in Greenville, although he is a little old for the level. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 18, 2019 23:57:10 GMT -5
A rally skunk, who knew:
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Post by telson13 on Jul 19, 2019 1:20:34 GMT -5
Great stuff on the farm today. Here's another: Brandon Howlett 3/5, 3 2B (20) He's having one of the more underrated years in our system with a .362 OBP and 25 XBH (Top 10 in our system) in an aggressive first full season assignment. I was looking at the boxes earlier and this stood out to me, too. Howlett clearly has a contact problem (31% K rate), but some of that high k rate may be deep counts, because his walk rate is an excellent 12+%. He doesn’t have a lot of HR, but he is hitting doubles. He’s pull-heavy, and he’s hit a lot more grounders this year than last. His HR/FB rate is low (10%). The low/meh BA is obviously dragged down by the whiffs. But as you say, his OBP is good. He’s also come on strong after a very cold start (which lasted for a good stretch). Seems to me the aggressive assignment was a calculated (and successful) challenge. I think he’s been a little overmatched, probably rolling over some pitches, but keeping his OBP up and slowing the K rate are both real good signs. I think the contact (and contact quality) starts improving and the HR start coming. |
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Post by telson13 on Jul 19, 2019 2:02:38 GMT -5
Dalbec 3 for 5 today Duran 0 for 5 with 3ks. Severe struggles since promotion. No power, and not walking. Down to a .212 average Yeah, that’s been a huge disappointment. The BABIP is WAY down (of course, because... .480...), he’s shown poor discipline and no power. He’s basically traded a passel of LD for grounders. Still, AA in his first full season is a huge leap from 7th-round flier. I think it may take him a while to adjust, and he’s probably a AA repeater/early promotion candidate in 2020 if he figures it out. My guess is he’s probably messed up from being overmatched and he might be tinkering too much. I’m hopeful that he starts sorting things out come August, and that he goes to the AFL. I still like his chances at being JBJ’s replacement in 2021. He might never be a star, but I do think he can be a regular contributor. They have a ton of offense, so if the defense improves and he can slash .270-.280/.330/.400, he’ll be plenty adequate. And, hey, he may never be more than a 2nd-division starter or good 4th OF, but those guys are valuable too. Saves dropping $5M on a FA. I still have hopes he’s (much) more than that. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2019 7:20:20 GMT -5
Great stuff on the farm today. Here's another: Brandon Howlett 3/5, 3 2B (20) He's having one of the more underrated years in our system with a .362 OBP and 25 XBH (Top 10 in our system) in an aggressive first full season assignment. I was looking at the boxes earlier and this stood out to me, too. Howlett clearly has a contact problem (31% K rate), but some of that high k rate may be deep counts, because his walk rate is an excellent 12+%. He doesn’t have a lot of HR, but he is hitting doubles. He’s pull-heavy, and he’s hit a lot more grounders this year than last. His HR/FB rate is low (10%). The low/meh BA is obviously dragged down by the whiffs. But as you say, his OBP is good. He’s also come on strong after a very cold start (which lasted for a good stretch). Seems to me the aggressive assignment was a calculated (and successful) challenge. I think he’s been a little overmatched, probably rolling over some pitches, but keeping his OBP up and slowing the K rate are both real good signs. I think the contact (and contact quality) starts improving and the HR start coming. TIme to play everyone's favorite game: Fun with Arbitrary Endpoints! 4/4-5/15: .222/.325/.324, 31% K rate, 10% BB rate, .324 BABIP. 5/16-7/17: .272/.380/.405, 31% K rate, 13% BB rate, .404 BABIP. So he's still striking out a lot, and he's walking at roughly the same rate. ISO roughly the same. Hopefully it's a cut in GB rate or something because otherwise it looks like a BABIP mirage. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2019 7:59:27 GMT -5
For the sake of the exercise, I'll shift those endpoints a couple weeks for a glass half-full look:
4/4-6/3: .225/.316/.331, .337 BABIP, 33.2% K rate, 9.2% BB rate, .106 Iso
6/4-7/18: .314/.433/.480, .441 BABIP, 26.8% K rate, 16.5% BB rate, .166 Iso
Makes it look like some legitimate improvement that's being exaggerated some by the BABIP luck.
Either way I'm liking all of the doubles.
EDIT: Playing with the numbers and adjusting the latter to a .338 BABIP (which takes seven hits away) would put him at .245/.378/.412 over that second period. A clear improvement with a very strong OBP but with contact issues limiting the batting average and overall line.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 19, 2019 9:15:34 GMT -5
When I see a 19 year old with a lot of doubles, it's easy to follow the logic that as he matures, the power will go up and the doubles will turn into HRs. I expect the HRs to go up but not because of strength. He's already strong, similarly to Keri Washington. The HR he hit in Rome traveled 430+ feet.
He looks like he's advanced compared to other 19 year olds in pretty much every phase of the game. I expect the HRs to increase as he adjusts to each level of pitching going forward but I don't expect him to make seamless climbs up the ladder.
ADD: For me, I like him better than I liked Chavis in his first year at Greenville.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 19, 2019 22:04:04 GMT -5
I was looking at the boxes earlier and this stood out to me, too. Howlett clearly has a contact problem (31% K rate), but some of that high k rate may be deep counts, because his walk rate is an excellent 12+%. He doesn’t have a lot of HR, but he is hitting doubles. He’s pull-heavy, and he’s hit a lot more grounders this year than last. His HR/FB rate is low (10%). The low/meh BA is obviously dragged down by the whiffs. But as you say, his OBP is good. He’s also come on strong after a very cold start (which lasted for a good stretch). Seems to me the aggressive assignment was a calculated (and successful) challenge. I think he’s been a little overmatched, probably rolling over some pitches, but keeping his OBP up and slowing the K rate are both real good signs. I think the contact (and contact quality) starts improving and the HR start coming. TIme to play everyone's favorite game: Fun with Arbitrary Endpoints! 4/4-5/15: .222/.325/.324, 31% K rate, 10% BB rate, .324 BABIP. 5/16-7/17: .272/.380/.405, 31% K rate, 13% BB rate, .404 BABIP. So he's still striking out a lot, and he's walking at roughly the same rate. ISO roughly the same. Hopefully it's a cut in GB rate or something because otherwise it looks like a BABIP mirage. Ughh...I shoulda checked the splits on the k rate cuz I was totally going off of daily box checks and my gut, which was completely wrong. Good call on the BABIP mirage, though as you note there’s the real chance it’s a contact quality thing. That’s mildly disappointing. Still pretty good for a 21st-rounder, but apparently a big part of his slide was the contact issue, and tho i think the team addressed it as a vision issue to some extent, it’s clearly baked in. It’s is interesting to see him carry such a high BABIP, which suggests he is making solid contact when he actually does make contact. He just needs to cut the k rate by 6-8 points, at least. Hopefully, youth works in his favor there. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 19, 2019 22:38:19 GMT -5
Age 19 seasons at Greenville.
Chavis 109 games .223 / .277 / .405 / .682 16 HRs 30.6 K% 6.2 BB%
Howlett 81 games .261 / .363 / .395 / .758 5 HRs 30.6 k% 12.0 BB%
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 20, 2019 12:02:47 GMT -5
Age 19 seasons at Greenville. Chavis 109 games .223 / .277 / .405 / .682 16 HRs 30.6 K% 6.2 BB% Howlett 81 games .261 / .363 / .395 / .758 5 HRs 30.6 k% 12.0 BB% Yeah Chavis was kind of awful at Greenville that year. Was trying to hit two home runs every time he swung. But his BP was arguably the most impressive on a loaded Drive team that featured Devers, Moncada, Longhi, Guerra, and Dubon as well (I think the latter had been moved up to Salem, almost out of necessity, by the time Ian and I got down there). |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 21, 2019 4:59:09 GMT -5
In retrospect, I'm glad I was wrong about Chavis because at the time, I was significantly less impressed than most.
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