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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2013 22:47:25 GMT -5
The Sox signed Drew on a 1-yr 9.5 million dollar contract. He did have a down year in 2012, that can be mostly attributed to injury. He has never been truly great, although he did have a 21 hr campaign back in 2008. I think though, that the Sox could have spent 9.5 million for a guy who will probably bat around .260 and 10 Hrs in a MUCH better place.
Take this for example: Let's say the Sox don't get Drew or Victorino. (Signed on a 3-yr 39 million dollar contract) Suppose neither of those happen. Combined, their salaries are 22.5 million. Does anyone think that although he brings personality risks and injury risks to the table, the Sox would have been better off signing Josh Hamilton? I know he has does have problems on the field and off, he is no doubt a very productive player and one of the best in baseball. Hamilton's average annual salary is only 2.5 million more than Victorino and Drew combined. If Hamilton was signed, he would have no doubt brought WAY more offense to the table than Victorino and Drew. If the Sox signed Hamilton, they could have afforded to hand the starting SS job to Jose Iglesias, already on the payroll, because Hamilton's high offensive production would cover Iggy's poor offensive production. Also, Iggy is basically elite defensively at shortstop while Drew is only Mediocre. Like Brendon Ryan, Iggy might be able to put up a high WAR because of his great defense. Hamilton could play right field because he normally profiles as a center fielder. He is not as fast as Victorino, but he is much better offensively. It would be roughly only 2.5 million more to carry Hamilton, and with other contracts off the books in the future, the Sox would have been able to afford him.
I'm not completely saying that Drew is a bad signing, because he is a rebound candidate, but it seems the Sox spent alot of potential rebound candidates.
I'm not saying that signing Hamilton definitely would be better than signing Drew than Victorino, as his behavior is not great and he is an injury risk. But so is Drew, and Victorino is older than Hamilton. I don't really know what to say about this, but I think the Sox would have been better off forking up a little bit more money for Hamilton and going with Iggy at SS. Hamilton's big offensive production would cover Iggy's bad offensive production, and Iggy's great defense would help the pitching staff as well.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 18, 2013 23:05:04 GMT -5
Hamilton is signed for more seasons than Victorino and Drew combined. Josh Hamilton looks great for one season, I'm sure the Red Sox would've given him $25-32m on a one year deal. That wasn't an option though, and you didn't even mention the long term commitment, you focused solely on 2013 which isn't the way contracts work.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 18, 2013 23:13:34 GMT -5
The Sox still had the money to sign Hamilton even after Drew and Victorino. They didn't sign him because he's a bad investment, not because they didn't have the funds.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Feb 19, 2013 7:22:23 GMT -5
I think the better way to look at this argument, is the Red Sox spent $48.5M on 4 seasons of Drew and Victorino, the Angels spent $125M on 5 seasons of Josh Hamilton. I'll take 4 seasons of avg defense and slighlty below avg offense and save ~$77M.
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Post by hammerhead on Feb 19, 2013 7:47:25 GMT -5
If Drew hits .260 with 10 HR and plays at least slighty above average SS I'll take that for 9.5mil...
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Post by raftsox on Feb 19, 2013 8:16:17 GMT -5
You can't just say "Hamilton = more offense than Drew + Victorino". Salary per season was already addressed. I've always been a fan of looking at total team value, and value per position. *Note, these numbers are purely for fun and should not constitue absolute and guaranteed values*
Hamilton should be good for ~4 oWAR and -0.7 dWAR, for a total value of ~3.3 WAR
To estimate Iglesias' production I combined Omar Vizquel's defense (during prime) and Reid Brignac's offense for -0.5 oWAR and 2.0 dWAR or 1.5 WAR
This total brings 4.8 WAR to the team or 2.4 WAR per position.
Vicotorino ~ 3 oWAR and 0.5 dWAR or 3.5 WAR
Drew ~ 1.7 oWAR and 0.7 dWAR or 2.4 WAR
Total = 6.9 WAR or 3.5 WAR per position
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Post by jrffam05 on Feb 19, 2013 10:23:54 GMT -5
I personally would of liked to see Iggy get the starting spot, but I understand why he didn't. I still like the Drew signings. 3 great things behind it besides how he plays, 1 it doesn't hurt us next year, 2 he is added trade value at the deadline if Iggy starts hitting, 3 it is possible if he is good that he may be worth a QO. Dempster could also be traded after this season.
I like how the Sox handled the offseason. I think this team could compete for a playoff spot, we kept our young talent, and we will not be restricted in the next couple of years. Lackey is our highest paid player right now correct? And his salary will be hedged because of the option year. Compare that to the Yankees who have A-Rod, Tex, and CC all making over 20M with Cano to join that list next year. Think we are in good shape without Hamilton.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 19, 2013 12:46:19 GMT -5
The thing about signing Drew instead of giving the job to Iglesias is that the Sox still have Iglesias. If Drew is a disappointment or gets hurt, you can still give the job to him. On the other hand, if you don't sign Drew and just give the job to Iggy only to find that he's hitting .190 with a .220 OBP after two or three months months, well, then you're up a certain notable creek without a paddle-- good luck finding an adequate shortstop in-season.
I'm not sure why people are so iffy on the Drew signing. I just don't see the downside. It's like the Napoli signing-- when you look at the team's financial situation, they're essentially getting these guys for free.
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Post by jioh on Feb 19, 2013 13:32:30 GMT -5
I love the idea that at the deadline we could trade either Drew or if he's hitting Iglesias, along with various other redundant components on this team. Maybe for a young LF/RF/1b? Or another entry in the "who's our #1 SP?" lottery.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2013 13:37:40 GMT -5
This off season has been all about options - giving yourself as many of those as possible. No matter where you look in the list of transactions, you see flexibility. The team has been willing to pay a premium for that flexibility. Drew for one year at $9.5 million as the SS situation sorts itself out is a (small) premium for a lot of flexibility just as fenway points out.
There were lots of posts at the beginning of the off-season that I think over-valued players who weren't going to sign anything but deals for 4+ years, most of whom are over 30. That has to be factored into the FO's thinking. They said they would stick to shorter contracts and they did. As the poster-child for salary lock-in on over-valued contracts, I believe they want to pick their targets a lot more carefully.
Having viable one or two year options on guys like Napoli, Drew and Gomes frees up money quickly down the line. It will also give them trade chips at the deadline if any one of those players does well but the team doesn't.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 19, 2013 13:47:28 GMT -5
I badly wanted to see the Sox get Hamilton. As it is, if Papi misses games like I suspect he will as he recovers, the Sox lineup will be a pretty weak one, especially from the left side of the plate.
That said, I think the Sox would have been nuts to give Hamilton the five years the Angels gave him.
Three would have been great. I might have considered stretching it to 4 through options, but let's face it - none of these would have gotten the job done and the Sox were better off walking away rather than tying themselves down for so long with a guy who most likely doesn't have 5 great years left in him.
The only signing that I really don't like is Victorino, who is overpaid and being committed to for too long given where his numbers are headed.
I agree with Keith Law's assessment that shopping for middle tier free agents isn't the best idea and that if you're going to go shopping, it's best to either fork out the money for the top talent or go bargain basement shopping and that middle tier free agents are usually overpaid for middling performance.
But doing a bunch of one year deals doesn't hurt anything, so Drew's signing makes sense given that Iglesias isn't ready offensively yet if ever. Napoli on one year makes sense. Uehara and Hanrahan are under contract for 2013 only. Dempster's here for only two years.
The Sox spent a lot of money on mediocrity and promise to be mediocre, but at least it won't hamstring them long-term the way the Crawford deal (and even Gonzo deal) was.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2013 13:54:11 GMT -5
Now it could be that Napoli's 2011 was an extreme outlier, but even at his career numbers he's more than a mediocrity. The issue is health, as we found out with the protracted negotiations. And I'm going to differ with you about the DH position, and that's what Ortiz is after all. While they won't replace all that production, they could replace a bit of it with options they already have by platooning players. I'm really not worried about the offense. There will be more than enough to win games if the pitching comes around. That's the biggest if to my mind.
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Post by jmei on Feb 19, 2013 14:34:09 GMT -5
Taking their stats over the past three years, every player except Daniel Nava in the projected starting lineup has hit better than the average player at each of their respective positions, and Nava's only a hair worse than the average LF. You have to remember that the offensive environment as a whole is down significantly since the mid-00s, and guys like Saltalamacchia, Victorino, and Napoli are solidly above-average hitters relative to their position in this day and age. This is not a weak offense, even if Ortiz misses a significant number of games due to injury.
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Post by soxfan06 on Feb 19, 2013 15:45:45 GMT -5
The way I see it....we sign Josh Hamilton for the same deal the Angels got him at....we are still just as mediocre as we are right now. Only way this team goes anywhere is if the pitching pitches much better than last year.
Now a Josh Hamilton may be the difference between winning a world series and not winning a world series IF you are close enough...but I think many, if not all of us here will agree that this team was never going to be close enough to win a world series this year.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 19, 2013 16:39:32 GMT -5
Hamilton simply seemed like way too big of a risk for the Sox to take, and I'm referring primarily to his contract demands, age, and injury history, rather than his off the field issues. He certainly would have been a terrific addition to the lineup for the next few years or so, especially with our needs against right-handed pitching, but think of the situation the Angels will be in when they are paying out humongous salaries to Hamilton and Pujols during the last couple years of their deals.
That's why Victorino and Drew make a lot of sense for us. Obviously neither is the impact player Hamilton is, but they have been pretty reliable in their careers (outside Drew's ankle, which reportedly is an issue of the past), and fit the team well in the short term (and the AAV's of their deals really don't hurt us).
But like totheights said, this season truly depends on whether or not our rotation can rebound. I think you can count on Dempster to be at least a solid, unspectacular #3 type, but there are big question marks on the others being able to pitch close to their past levels / potential (or Felix taking a step forward, but reports on him haven't been too encouraging so far this spring; at least we have some depth not in the form of 35 year old veterans this time around). The pen is rock solid, as is the lineup vs LHP's, and I think there is a enough talent to manage quite well vs RHP's.
The revamped team looks great from a chemistry perspective and we will hopefully be rid of all the unfortunate distractions of 2012. It all comes down to the rotation, and of course, health.
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Post by remember04 on Feb 19, 2013 16:59:13 GMT -5
In three months we'll see pictures surface of Hamilton taking shots out of Paris Hiltons cleavage and then we'll all be glad we didn't sign him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 19, 2013 17:27:58 GMT -5
I agree with Keith Law's assessment that shopping for middle tier free agents isn't the best idea and that if you're going to go shopping, it's best to either fork out the money for the top talent or go bargain basement shopping and that middle tier free agents are usually overpaid for middling performance. For one thing, that might be generally true, but there's good and bad deals at all levels of the market, and the signings should be evaluated individually. But what's even crazier about this argument is that the Red Sox actually DID end up going bargain-bin this offseason. They signed all of one guy who can reasonably be described as "mid tier". And for as much hate as Victorino has received, the guy contributes in all phases of the game and he's really not that old for an athletic player on a short deal. In light of Upton, Swisher, etc, it's a very reasonable signing. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 19, 2013 18:59:19 GMT -5
Its not dead yet keep beating it.
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