Baseball America top 100 prospects

4 top 50 prospects is legit, very excited about that.

My favorite part about this is that the last Red Sox in the top 50 to be a bust was Dernell Stenson way back in 1999.

Daisuke doesn't count and Steve Lomasney had a freak injury.

There doesn't seem to be any correlation. I compared HRs per season with the number of 1B prospects on a 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 year lag: no correlation between 1B prospects and HRs at the majors from 1992-2012.

I have a few potential theories about why there would only be 1 highly ranked 1B prospect this year.
A. Huge conspiracy amongst BA staffers to de-value power/offense.
B. Teams are de-valuing power/offense in favor of toolsier players.
C. Teams are keeping fringy prospects at higher defensive value positions longer.
D. This is a low-point in the cycle of 1B prospects.

I think more and more that teams are using older players and less toolsy players at 1stbase. Older players because once an elite bat begins to loose a step first base becomes an option. It is also a downturn in the cycle. Plus many minor league 3rd basemen eventually become 1stbaseman, it makes sense to keep a top prospect at a more challenging defensive position to develope the glove. If you are a good enough athelete to make a top 100 list chances are you are athletic enough to play a more challenging position (at least till you outgrow it).

So it's a combination of reasons, very little has to do with steroids.

Fair list. The fact that had Arizona not begun having the world's worst off-season they would have 3 of the top 25 prospects (all of them pitchers, mind you) is kind of funny.

According to Huegels tweet on the staff feed Manuel said in a BA chat Swihart just missed the cut. I think he and Cechini will be up there next year.

Anyone else think Mason Williams is being overrated? I think of him more in the Garin Cecchini range (totally different players obviously, just similar age and talent level). To me Sanchez is the Yankees' best prospect by a wide margin.

I think Williams is rated about right, honestly, and I like him as a prospect. The obvious comparison is with Bradley. While Bradley's approach makes him the better bet to stick as a regular, Williams' power potential puts his upside a tad higher. He also plays a premium defensive position quite well. Williams is faster than Bradley, but a less polished baserunner, hence the mediocre-to-poor stolen base rates. Williams will be starting high-A four months younger than Bradley was last year. While I don't see him dominating the FSL like JBJ did in the Carolina League, he probably lines up for an early July promotion, putting him in Double-A before his 22nd birthday. Williams' defense limits his downside as well. Again, not as polished as Bradley, but he probably has a career as a 4th outfielder even if things don't develop.

The problem with Sanchez is whether he'll stick at catcher, and where he ends up if he doesn't. He has quick hands and release, giving him good throwing numbers, but his receiving skills are poor and I don't think his feet are quick enough to land him at third base. With his arm, I think he might be worth a shot in RF - it's a small one in Yankee stadium, so his lack of speed won't catch up with him as much, and away from there, he'll at least be able to play deeper and try to cut off some extra-base hits. I think his bat would play in right, but I'm not positive it would excel there, hence the trepidation in his ranking. At 1B/DH, his bat is probably below average. If scouts were convinced Sanchez could stick at catcher, even as a below average one, he'd probably be in the Top 20, as he'd star there with the bat. Indicative of that is Keith Law, who thinks he can stick and has Sanchez at #18.

Interested to see the BPro Top 101 on Monday to see where the chips fall.