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8/23-8/25 Red Sox @ Padres Series Thread
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 26, 2019 10:10:12 GMT -5
Espinoza had TJS twice already. Yes and he falls into minority category when it comes to these type of things. If something so anodyne as "electing to get major elbow surgery that doctors say you don't need isn't a good idea" comes off a personal attack, maybe take that time to re-evaluate why that is instead of just hammering it more.
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Post by manfred on Aug 26, 2019 19:11:34 GMT -5
Jesus. How is that even possible. Some bad luck to make it that extreme. Statcast say they should be 8 or 9/48. And it may be worse than that. The league has hit .250 in these situations, with an xBA of .232. Our xBA is .180. They probably should have had 9 or 10 hits.
These guys, on average, are outhitting the league by .054. But they're .052 below league average in xBA in these 50 PA.
Oh, it's actually 3 GDP and 1 LDP (Benny's). So it would look like just 49 outs in the box scores.
Date Opp Sox Opp Inn Out 1st 2nd 3rd EV xBA xwOBA What 5/2/2019 @CWS 3 3 7 0 Y Y 68.5 .190 .163 J.D. Martinez grounds into a force out. Andrew Benintendi scores. 5/5/2019 @CWS 2 2 7 1 Y Andrew Benintendi walks 5/8/2019 @BAL 1 1 7 2 Y 74.1 .221 .198 Andrew Benintendi grounds into a force out. 5/8/2019 @BAL 1 1 8 0 Y 86.5 .003 .006 J.D. Martinez flies out to right fielder Joey Rickard. 5/8/2019 @BAL 1 1 11 1 Y 106.8 .784 1.601 Rafael Devers flies out to right fielder Joey Rickard. 5/14/2019 COL 3 4 8 0 Y 82.9 .066 .060 Rafael Devers grounds into a force out. 5/14/2019 COL 4 4 9 0 Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 5/14/2019 COL 4 4 9 2 Y 92.8 .008 .008 J.D. Martinez pops out to second baseman Ryan McMahon. 5/14/2019 COL 4 4 10 0 Y Rafael Devers strikes out swinging. 5/14/2019 COL 4 5 11 2 Y 82.8 .018 .012 Andrew Benintendi flies out to left fielder Raimel Tapia. 5/15/2019 COL 5 5 7 1 Y Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 5/15/2019 COL 5 5 8 1 Y Y 101.7 .666 1.318 Rafael Devers flies out sharply to right fielder Charlie Blackmon. 5/22/2019 @TOR 4 4 10 1 Y Rafael Devers strikes out swinging. 5/25/2019 @HOU 0 2 7 2 Y Y 98.7 .908 .884 Andrew Benintendi singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Reddick. 5/25/2019 @HOU 3 3 9 1 Y Y 80.0 .000 .000 Andrew Benintendi pops out to third baseman Alex Bregman in foul territory. 5/28/2019 CLE 5 7 9 2 Y Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 6/1/2019 @NYY 3 5 9 0 Y Y 70.2 .387 .354 J.D. Martinez grounds into a double play. 6/10/2019 TEX 2 3 9 0 Y Y 82.9 .066 .060 Rafael Devers grounds into a double play. 6/10/2019 TEX 3 3 10 1 Y Y Andrew Benintendi called out on strikes. 6/16/2019 @BAL 3 3 9 2 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out on a foul tip. 6/18/2019 @MIN 3 3 14 2 Y Y Y 81.2 .047 .039 Andrew Benintendi grounds out, second baseman Jonathan Schoop to first baseman C. J. Cron. 6/18/2019 @MIN 3 3 17 0 Y J.D. Martinez called out on strikes. 6/18/2019 @MIN 3 3 17 1 Y 82.9 .066 .060 Rafael Devers grounds out, first baseman C. J. Cron to second baseman Jonathan Schoop. 6/21/2019 TOR 4 5 8 1 Y 99.4 .237 .230 Rafael Devers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Randal Grichuk. Jackie Bradley Jr. scores. 6/21/2019 TOR 5 5 9 1 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 6/22/2019 TOR 7 8 9 2 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 6/24/2019 CWS 5 5 9 0 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 6/24/2019 CWS 5 5 9 1 Y 82.9 .066 .060 Rafael Devers grounds out to first baseman Jose Abreu. 6/26/2019 CWS 5 6 8 1 Y Y 76.8 .195 .187 Rafael Devers grounds out softly, pitcher Alex Colome to first baseman Jose Abreu. 7/14/2019 LAD 4 4 9 1 Y Y 87.0 .590 .540 Rafael Devers lines out to left fielder Alex Verdugo. 7/14/2019 LAD 4 4 10 1 Y 70.8 .795 .736 Andrew Benintendi lines out to left fielder Joc Pederson. 7/14/2019 LAD 4 4 11 2 Y Y Y 100.7 .200 .185 J.D. Martinez grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Corey Seager. 7/16/2019 TOR 4 6 7 1 Y Y 101.5 .600 .814 J.D. Martinez lines out sharply to center fielder Teoscar Hernandez. 7/16/2019 TOR 4 6 7 2 Y Y 87.6 .010 .012 Andrew Benintendi pops out to shortstop Freddy Galvis. 7/30/2019 TB 5 6 7 2 Y J.D. Martinez walks. 7/30/2019 TB 5 6 7 2 Y Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 7/30/2019 TB 5 6 8 2 Y Y Y 79.5 .245 .242 Rafael Devers lines out to left fielder Austin Meadows. 8/3/2019 @NYY 4 4 7 2 Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 8/3/2019 @NYY 4 6 8 2 Y Y Y Rafael Devers strikes out swinging, catcher Austin Romine to first baseman DJ LeMahieu. 8/7/2019 KC 4 4 7 1 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 8/7/2019 KC 4 4 7 2 Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 8/7/2019 KC 4 4 9 0 Y Rafael Devers strikes out swinging. 8/7/2019 KC 4 4 9 2 Y 99.0 .358 .342 J.D. Martinez grounds into a force out, second baseman Nicky Lopez to shortstop Humberto Arteaga. 8/12/2019 @CLE 4 5 9 1 Y Rafael Devers strikes out on a foul tip. 8/12/2019 @CLE 5 5 9 2 Y Y 91.3 .090 .137 Andrew Benintendi flies out to right fielder Tyler Naquin. 8/20/2019 PHI 2 3 8 2 Y 95.5 .403 .468 Rafael Devers lines out to center fielder Adam Haseley. 8/20/2019 PHI 2 3 9 0 Y 85.6 .118 .104 J.D. Martinez reaches on a fielder's choice out. 8/20/2019 PHI 2 3 9 1 Y 99.5 .816 .785 Andrew Benintendi lines into a double play, shortstop Jean Segura to first baseman J. T. Realmuto. 8/25/2019 @SDP 1 3 8 0 Y Y 110.4 .450 tbd Rafael Devers grounds into a double play. 8/25/2019 @SDP 1 3 8 2 Y Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. Did you go back and collect that all yourself? Wow. Chapeau. You should write an article and get paid for that. Seriously. This is an amazing look at what went wrong in hard numbers. I appreciate the time you put into. Thanks.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 27, 2019 1:04:56 GMT -5
Yet we traded a prospect with 3 plus pitches for an injured mediocre Drew Pomeranz This is like complaining today that you got QBert instead of E.T. for the Atari 2600 for Christmas in 1982. Maybe you thought you wanted E.T. in 1982; maybe that Christmas-morning disappointment left you with psychological scars that you're better off discussing with a therapist than with the lovely-but-clinically-untrained SoxProspects.com forum community; but it wouldn't have worked out and you really need to detach from that dream. Sorry I’m just a police officer, not an expert like you soxprospects scouts and sabermetrics nerds. My opinion doesn’t count for much. But in my opinion, we did not get enough value in return for Espinoza at the time. Someone else in this thread stated it is very rare for a pitcher to have 3 plus pitches. We had one in our system and we traded him for a mediocre short term investment.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,984
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Post by cdj on Aug 27, 2019 7:20:47 GMT -5
This is like complaining today that you got QBert instead of E.T. for the Atari 2600 for Christmas in 1982. Maybe you thought you wanted E.T. in 1982; maybe that Christmas-morning disappointment left you with psychological scars that you're better off discussing with a therapist than with the lovely-but-clinically-untrained SoxProspects.com forum community; but it wouldn't have worked out and you really need to detach from that dream. Sorry I’m just a police officer, not an expert like you soxprospects scouts and sabermetrics nerds. My opinion doesn’t count for much. But in my opinion, we did not get enough value in return for Espinoza at the time. Someone else in this thread stated it is very rare for a pitcher to have 3 plus pitches. We had one in our system and we traded him for a mediocre short term investment. Imo thats hindsight with Pomeranz- he was viewed as a controllable rotation piece and seemed well on his way to being one after his good year. He had added the cutter and was dominant with the padres leading up to the deal Whenever you have the chance to trade a kid in Greenville for a guy throwing like a #2 starter in the majors you have to do it imo
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 9:04:03 GMT -5
Sorry I’m just a police officer, not an expert like you soxprospects scouts and sabermetrics nerds. My opinion doesn’t count for much. But in my opinion, we did not get enough value in return for Espinoza at the time. Someone else in this thread stated it is very rare for a pitcher to have 3 plus pitches. We had one in our system and we traded him for a mediocre short term investment. Imo thats hindsight with Pomeranz- he was viewed as a controllable rotation piece and seemed well on his way to being one after his good year. He had added the cutter and was dominant with the padres leading up to the deal Whenever you have the chance to trade a kid in Greenville for a guy throwing like a #2 starter in the majors you have to do it imo That's grossly over-valuing what Pomeranz was. He was 27. He was a decent bullpen arm that got moved back to the rotation after failing there before. 2012 (23) - 4.81 FIP (22 games 22 starts) 2013 (24) - 6.46 FIP (8 games 4 starts) 2014 (25) - 3.77 FIP (20 games 10 starts) 2015 (26) - 3.62 FIP (53 games 9 starts) 2016 (27) - 3.15 FIP (17 games 17 starts) -- half season stats with SD Post-trade: 2016 (27) - 4.78 FIP (14 games 13 starts) -- half season stats with BOS 2017 (28) - 3.84 FIP (32 games 32 starts) -- Actually surprised his season was this good and productive 2018 (29) - 5.43 FIP (26 games 11 starts) -- Last season in BOS 2019 (30) - 5.07 FIP (30 games 18 starts) -- Combined stats of SFG and MIL Yes, Pomeranz was drafted ahead of Chris Sale. SD clearly capitalized on Pomeranz value. They also knew he had an injury that wasn't disclosed during the time of trade, but Dombrowski elected to not undo the trade. Perhaps he knew something about Espinoza. Still, just because the trade didn't work out for SD doesn't mean Dombrowski capitalized on Espinoza either. If I sell you something that costs $40 for $20 I don't suddenly get better value because the $20 flew out of your pocket.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 27, 2019 9:15:09 GMT -5
As someone who was wrong about the Espinoza trade at the time, it seems to be very hard for other people to admit the same. Pitchers in A ball don't have THAT much value in a 1-for-1 deal because of the risk involved, and this is a very, very clear example of why: the median WAR for even a highly-touted pitcher in Class A is 0.0. Dombrowski turned that into a guy who was the #2 starter on a playoff team in 2017 and gave them very, very valuable innings in 2016 when there were a lot of depth and injury issues. Saying they should have packaged him for someone better than Pomeranz seems like hindsight, because that's hypothetical - Dombrowski was able to get value that day so he did. That's why he was a better major league general manager than Cherington - instead of waiting around for an optimal deal that may or may not ever come about, Dombrowski was willing to simply make good ones.
Why would Pomeranz's stats in 2012 and 2013 reflect whether trading for him in 2016 was a good idea? Why is that in your post other than as a form of confirmation bias? Pomeranz had been good since 2014, was acquired at midseason 2016, and continued to be good through 2017.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 9:30:10 GMT -5
As someone who was wrong about the Espinoza trade at the time, it seems to be very hard for other people to admit the same. Pitchers in A ball don't have THAT much value in a 1-for-1 deal because of the risk involved, and this is a very, very clear example of why: the median WAR for even a highly-touted pitcher in Class A is 0.0. Dombrowski turned that into a guy who was the #2 starter on a playoff team in 2017 and gave them very, very valuable innings in 2016 when there were a lot of depth and injury issues. Saying they should have packaged him for someone better than Pomeranz seems like hindsight, because that's hypothetical - Dombrowski was able to get value that day so he did. That's why he was a better major league general manager than Cherington - instead of waiting around for an optimal deal that may or may not ever come about, Dombrowski was willing to simply make good ones. Why would Pomeranz's stats in 2012 and 2013 reflect whether trading for him in 2016 was a good idea? Why is that in your post other than as a form of confirmation bias? Pomeranz had been good since 2014, was acquired at midseason 2016, and continued to be good through 2017. Because he was a glorified bullpen arm who wasn't that good outside of the half-season he had with San Diego. He had no track record of being a successful starter. On top of that, Dombrowski knew he was a ticking time bomb as MLB offered to allow them to undo the trade for failing to disclose a medical issue. Espinoza meanwhile was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. Dombrowski got lucky that his elbow completely exploded to the point where 1 TJ surgery wasn't enough. He's still only 21, but his career is absolutely in jeopardy. In fact, Espinoza was the 13th ranked prospect in all of baseball. m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/No, I don't think continually trading top 15 prospects in baseball for mediocre talent is recipe for success. Dombrowski was right to get rid of him, but it simply worked out in this case. He's also ignored potential injury risks with Tyler Thornburg and Carson Smith, albeit those were a lot smaller moves than this.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 27, 2019 9:43:52 GMT -5
As someone who was wrong about the Espinoza trade at the time, it seems to be very hard for other people to admit the same. Pitchers in A ball don't have THAT much value in a 1-for-1 deal because of the risk involved, and this is a very, very clear example of why: the median WAR for even a highly-touted pitcher in Class A is 0.0. Dombrowski turned that into a guy who was the #2 starter on a playoff team in 2017 and gave them very, very valuable innings in 2016 when there were a lot of depth and injury issues. Saying they should have packaged him for someone better than Pomeranz seems like hindsight, because that's hypothetical - Dombrowski was able to get value that day so he did. That's why he was a better major league general manager than Cherington - instead of waiting around for an optimal deal that may or may not ever come about, Dombrowski was willing to simply make good ones. Why would Pomeranz's stats in 2012 and 2013 reflect whether trading for him in 2016 was a good idea? Why is that in your post other than as a form of confirmation bias? Pomeranz had been good since 2014, was acquired at midseason 2016, and continued to be good through 2017. Because he was a glorified bullpen arm who wasn't that good outside of the half-season he had with San Diego. He had no track record of being a successful starter. On top of that, Dombrowski knew he was a ticking time bomb as MLB offered to allow them to undo the trade for failing to disclose a medical issue. Espinoza meanwhile was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. Dombrowski got lucky that his elbow completely exploded to the point where 1 TJ surgery wasn't enough. He's still only 21, but his career is absolutely in jeopardy. In fact, Espinoza was the 13th ranked prospect in all of baseball. m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/No, I don't think continually trading top 15 prospects in baseball for mediocre talent is recipe for success. Dombrowski was right to get rid of him, but it simply worked out in this case. He's also ignored potential injury risks with Tyler Thornburg and Carson Smith, albeit those were a lot smaller moves than this. He got lucky that the trade played out exactly as he intended? You realize that sounds ridiculous, right? The Red Sox won the division in 2017 because Drew Pomeranz was on the team. He made 32 starts and had a 3.32 ERA. They possibly don't win in 2016 either, even though Pomeranz was less effective that year, because that team had serious depth problems and the pitchers who would've taken those innings would very likely have been below replacement level. From the time of the trade through the end of 2017, Pomeranz had a 4.4 bWAR in 240+ innings. He was 10th in the American League in pitching bWAR in 2017. So much of people's problem with this trade really seems to be that they had so much invested in saying that it was a mistake that they were unable or unwilling to appreciate that Pomeranz was a huge asset for them when they needed him to be. Do you really think "that trade worked in spite of Dombrowski's foolishness" makes more sense than "that trade worked because of Dombrowski's shrewdness"? He traded a guy at the right time, traded FOR a guy at the right time, and that was some sort of dumb luck? The Thornburg deal was a bad trade because it was so different than this deal. Four-for-one trades, especially for relievers, are very high risk, both because of reliver attrition but also because of the likelihood that, when you trade four guys, one of them blows away his projection.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 10:19:24 GMT -5
Because he was a glorified bullpen arm who wasn't that good outside of the half-season he had with San Diego. He had no track record of being a successful starter. On top of that, Dombrowski knew he was a ticking time bomb as MLB offered to allow them to undo the trade for failing to disclose a medical issue. Espinoza meanwhile was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. Dombrowski got lucky that his elbow completely exploded to the point where 1 TJ surgery wasn't enough. He's still only 21, but his career is absolutely in jeopardy. In fact, Espinoza was the 13th ranked prospect in all of baseball. m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/No, I don't think continually trading top 15 prospects in baseball for mediocre talent is recipe for success. Dombrowski was right to get rid of him, but it simply worked out in this case. He's also ignored potential injury risks with Tyler Thornburg and Carson Smith, albeit those were a lot smaller moves than this. He got lucky that the trade played out exactly as he intended? You realize that sounds ridiculous, right? The Red Sox won the division in 2017 because Drew Pomeranz was on the team. He made 32 starts and had a 3.32 ERA. They possibly don't win in 2016 either, even though Pomeranz was less effective that year, because that team had serious depth problems and the pitchers who would've taken those innings would very likely have been below replacement level. From the time of the trade through the end of 2017, Pomeranz had a 4.4 bWAR in 240+ innings. He was 10th in the American League in pitching bWAR in 2017. So much of people's problem with this trade really seems to be that they had so much invested in saying that it was a mistake that they were unable or unwilling to appreciate that Pomeranz was a huge asset for them when they needed him to be. Do you really think "that trade worked in spite of Dombrowski's foolishness" makes more sense than "that trade worked because of Dombrowski's shrewdness"? He traded a guy at the right time, traded FOR a guy at the right time, and that was some sort of dumb luck? The Thornburg deal was a bad trade because it was so different than this deal. Four-for-one trades, especially for relievers, are very high risk, both because of reliver attrition but also because of the likelihood that, when you trade four guys, one of them blows away his projection. How did it play out exactly as he intended? Espinoza got hurt, unless he had medical knowledge of his elbow beforehand that we're not aware of. What we are aware of is that Pomeranz was a failed starter who had a terrific half season and Dombrowski traded the 13th overall prospect for him, despite getting medical treatment that the Red Sox were not made aware of. This and the deal that the Marlins actually rescinded for a similar situation is what got the Padres GM suspended for 30 days. Pomeranz was very effective in 2017 and was a big part of their division title that year. Until Espinoza hits the majors, Pomeranz value is infinitely higher. I just don't think that's a recipe for success to trade away Michael Kopech, Triston Casas, Andrew Benintendi, whomever top MLB prospects for basically Nathan Eovaldi. From SD perspective, they got the 13th overall prospect in baseball for a guy that was in the pen a year ago. I think there's a reason they didn't hold out till the deadline and try to haggle for a better return. It just blew up on them. If Espinoza reached the majors, would it be worth it for his contribution to 1 division title? Also, if I'm expecting a better return, it shouldn't be assumed that whatever the return they might have gotten instead would be greater than a zero impact to the team. I'm not totally blowing up Dombrowski for this. I give him half credit. He was right to move him as Espinoza might never pitch in the majors now. Just he should have done better with the asset, but something is better than nothing. Completely agreed on Thornburg. I only liked that deal because I'm 12 and he has the same first name as me. (Not really 12, just the mind of one).
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 27, 2019 10:37:43 GMT -5
You're mistaking trading types of players for specific players. Trading specifically Anderson Espinoza for specifically Drew Pomeranz was a good deal because Dombrowski liked Pomeranz as an impact starter--and he was right! Not a Pomeranz type, not "basically Nathan Eovaldi" but what Drew Pomeranz - the pitcher, not the idea - was worth in July 2016. It's also very possible that he thought Espinoza specifically was higher risk, but we can be pretty certain he and everyone else considered him more risky than Benintendi.
Also, speculating that he thought Espinoza had an elevated injury risk is not the same as saying they thought he was already hurt. There may have been something in his mechanics that was worrisome. Or, and I think this is more likely, it's just the high likelihood of ANY 19 year old pitcher getting injured makes trading them a good bet.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 14:10:34 GMT -5
You're mistaking trading types of players for specific players. Trading specifically Anderson Espinoza for specifically Drew Pomeranz was a good deal because Dombrowski liked Pomeranz as an impact starter--and he was right! Not a Pomeranz type, not "basically Nathan Eovaldi" but what Drew Pomeranz - the pitcher, not the idea - was worth in July 2016. It's also very possible that he thought Espinoza specifically was higher risk, but we can be pretty certain he and everyone else considered him more risky than Benintendi. Also, speculating that he thought Espinoza had an elevated injury risk is not the same as saying they thought he was already hurt. There may have been something in his mechanics that was worrisome. Or, and I think this is more likely, it's just the high likelihood of ANY 19 year old pitcher getting injured makes trading them a good bet. And it worked well for a season, maybe a season and a half. Michael Kopech who was ranked in the top 25 was packaged in a deal for Chris Sale. If the difference in trading one elite prospect for a starter-turned reliever-turned starter who was shining for half year, or in a package for an elite player, then just package more guys together. Did SD believe in Pomeranz? I don't recall him being expensive or a pending free agent. I'm glad the trade worked out as it did because the GM is a scum bag for withholding medical records in his trades. Again, Dombrowski was right in getting rid of Espinoza and he was a contributing factor in 1 division title. Also, the trade isn't completely done yet either. Eovaldi came back from 2 TJ surgeries, but I don't know about back-to-back TJ surgeries. But yes, it's certainly possible that Dombrowski didn't care about the Pomeranz risk because after watching Espinoza knew it was a matter of when, not if, he'll need surgery.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 27, 2019 14:35:02 GMT -5
How did it play out exactly as he intended? Espinoza got hurt, unless he had medical knowledge of his elbow beforehand that we're not aware of. What we are aware of is that Pomeranz was a failed starter who had a terrific half season and Dombrowski traded the 13th overall prospect for him, despite getting medical treatment that the Red Sox were not made aware of. This and the deal that the Marlins actually rescinded for a similar situation is what got the Padres GM suspended for 30 days. Knowing he's a 19 year old pitcher is enough.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 14:52:59 GMT -5
How did it play out exactly as he intended? Espinoza got hurt, unless he had medical knowledge of his elbow beforehand that we're not aware of. What we are aware of is that Pomeranz was a failed starter who had a terrific half season and Dombrowski traded the 13th overall prospect for him, despite getting medical treatment that the Red Sox were not made aware of. This and the deal that the Marlins actually rescinded for a similar situation is what got the Padres GM suspended for 30 days. Knowing he's a 19 year old pitcher is enough. Which should illustrate how enormous his potential was to be ranked 13th in all of baseball as a 19 year old. I know Pedro was comparing himself to him.
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 27, 2019 17:07:19 GMT -5
Sorry I’m just a police officer, not an expert like you soxprospects scouts and sabermetrics nerds. My opinion doesn’t count for much. Lol.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2019 17:12:37 GMT -5
You're mistaking trading types of players for specific players. Trading specifically Anderson Espinoza for specifically Drew Pomeranz was a good deal because Dombrowski liked Pomeranz as an impact starter--and he was right! Not a Pomeranz type, not "basically Nathan Eovaldi" but what Drew Pomeranz - the pitcher, not the idea - was worth in July 2016. It's also very possible that he thought Espinoza specifically was higher risk, but we can be pretty certain he and everyone else considered him more risky than Benintendi. Also, speculating that he thought Espinoza had an elevated injury risk is not the same as saying they thought he was already hurt. There may have been something in his mechanics that was worrisome. Or, and I think this is more likely, it's just the high likelihood of ANY 19 year old pitcher getting injured makes trading them a good bet. And it worked well for a season, maybe a season and a half. Michael Kopech who was ranked in the top 25 was packaged in a deal for Chris Sale. If the difference in trading one elite prospect for a starter-turned reliever-turned starter who was shining for half year, or in a package for an elite player, then just package more guys together. Did SD believe in Pomeranz? I don't recall him being expensive or a pending free agent. I'm glad the trade worked out as it did because the GM is a scum bag for withholding medical records in his trades. Again, Dombrowski was right in getting rid of Espinoza and he was a contributing factor in 1 division title. Also, the trade isn't completely done yet either. Eovaldi came back from 2 TJ surgeries, but I don't know about back-to-back TJ surgeries. But yes, it's certainly possible that Dombrowski didn't care about the Pomeranz risk because after watching Espinoza knew it was a matter of when, not if, he'll need surgery. This sure is a lot of hand wringing over something which you know absolutely nothing about. None of us know who is offered for what. None of us knew who was available. One of the reasons DDo likely made that trade is because of the sheer number of ranked prospects dealt in other deals. The other reason is that he probably doesn't expect it likely that 18 year old 160 pound pitchers to reach their potential. And then on top of it, you're adding hindsight to the evaluation, yet you don't want to use hindsight in regards to how much Espinoza is worth now.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 27, 2019 18:16:14 GMT -5
This is like complaining today that you got QBert instead of E.T. for the Atari 2600 for Christmas in 1982. Maybe you thought you wanted E.T. in 1982; maybe that Christmas-morning disappointment left you with psychological scars that you're better off discussing with a therapist than with the lovely-but-clinically-untrained SoxProspects.com forum community; but it wouldn't have worked out and you really need to detach from that dream. Sorry I’m just a police officer, not an expert like you soxprospects scouts and sabermetrics nerds. My opinion doesn’t count for much. But in my opinion, we did not get enough value in return for Espinoza at the time. Someone else in this thread stated it is very rare for a pitcher to have 3 plus pitches. We had one in our system and we traded him for a mediocre short term investment. 3 *POTENTIAL* plus pitches. Nothing was guaranteed, we've seen plenty of guys with plus pitches in the low minors fade out later on in their development. But holy crap the level of bitter in this, man. Pro tip: If you're trying to make your opinion sound convincing, try avoiding insults. Just saying.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 20:08:35 GMT -5
And it worked well for a season, maybe a season and a half. Michael Kopech who was ranked in the top 25 was packaged in a deal for Chris Sale. If the difference in trading one elite prospect for a starter-turned reliever-turned starter who was shining for half year, or in a package for an elite player, then just package more guys together. Did SD believe in Pomeranz? I don't recall him being expensive or a pending free agent. I'm glad the trade worked out as it did because the GM is a scum bag for withholding medical records in his trades. Again, Dombrowski was right in getting rid of Espinoza and he was a contributing factor in 1 division title. Also, the trade isn't completely done yet either. Eovaldi came back from 2 TJ surgeries, but I don't know about back-to-back TJ surgeries. But yes, it's certainly possible that Dombrowski didn't care about the Pomeranz risk because after watching Espinoza knew it was a matter of when, not if, he'll need surgery. This sure is a lot of hand wringing over something which you know absolutely nothing about. None of us know who is offered for what. None of us knew who was available. One of the reasons DDo likely made that trade is because of the sheer number of ranked prospects dealt in other deals. The other reason is that he probably doesn't expect it likely that 18 year old 160 pound pitchers to reach their potential. And then on top of it, you're adding hindsight to the evaluation, yet you don't want to use hindsight in regards to how much Espinoza is worth now. At the time of the deal, I was livid. I've also acknowledged that getting a valuable pitcher for a season is better than nothing at all. I said I give Dombrowski half credit for identifying him as a guy who had to go. With that said, he was the 13th best prospect in all of baseball at just 19 years old. I can't imagine an organization thriving trading away every highly touted prospect at the age of 19 or 20 for just a season or season and a half of a productive player. Let's look at it this way. Rafael Devers was 16th ranked (3 behind Espinoza) and was also 19 years old. How would you feel about the Pomeranz trade if the Red Sox moved him instead? It's easier to say the Red Sox crushed it only because Espinoza had back-to-back TJ surgeries. I'm surprised you're bringing his body size into this while vehemently defending the Chris Sale extension. I would think when Espinoza is completely filled out he'll be just as "big" as Chris Sale. My point about SD is that the GM was engaging in shady trade practices and karma bit him. What was SD motive for moving Pomeranz when he wasn't up, expensive, and didn't wait until the deadline to dangle and haggle him? I think the reason why Dave is able to strike deals earlier is because he offers teams great value for the player he covets and makes it hard for teams to say no.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 27, 2019 20:28:49 GMT -5
Let's look at it this way. Rafael Devers was 16th ranked (3 behind Espinoza) and was also 19 years old. A huge part of this disagreement is you taking one publication's rankings as a canon assessment of their values. Dombrowski DIDN'T trade Devers, he traded Espinoza! The hypothetical "well, you like the trade, but what if he had made a much worse one" doesn't make sense. Dombrowski isn't getting his trade value judgments from MLB Pipeline. Devers is better than all of those other players on that list too, and he is the guy Dombrowki insisted on keeping. The idea that keeping Devers and trading the higher-ranking Espinoza means he would've been content flipping the two files in the face of everything that actually happened.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 21:08:58 GMT -5
Let's look at it this way. Rafael Devers was 16th ranked (3 behind Espinoza) and was also 19 years old. A huge part of this disagreement is you taking one publication's rankings as a canon assessment of their values. Dombrowski DIDN'T trade Devers, he traded Espinoza! The hypothetical "well, you like the trade, but what if he had made a much worse one" doesn't make sense. Dombrowski isn't getting his trade value judgments from MLB Pipeline. Devers is better than all of those other players on that list too, and he is the guy Dombrowki insisted on keeping. The idea that keeping Devers and trading the higher-ranking Espinoza means he would've been content flipping the two files in the face of everything that actually happened. I'm not saying that, at all. I suspect Dombrowski liked Devers like he liked Benintendi more than Moncada. I bring up the rankings because I think it's still fair to assume that a. He was still highly coveted and b. Was around Devers level of talent. I doubt whatever they felt about him internally was vastly different than various prospect rankings. Even if he did, I doubt other MLB GMs would all feel the same
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2019 21:10:01 GMT -5
Someone needs to be reminded that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2019 21:25:14 GMT -5
Some bad luck to make it that extreme. Statcast say they should be 8 or 9/48. And it may be worse than that. The league has hit .250 in these situations, with an xBA of .232. Our xBA is .180. They probably should have had 9 or 10 hits. These guys, on average, are outhitting the league by .054. But they're .052 below league average in xBA in these 50 PA.
Oh, it's actually 3 GDP and 1 LDP (Benny's). So it would look like just 49 outs in the box scores.
data! Did you go back and collect that all yourself? Wow. Chapeau. You should write an article and get paid for that. Seriously. This is an amazing look at what went wrong in hard numbers. I appreciate the time you put into. Thanks. It's a search of Statcast data at Baseball Savant, which you can then download as a spreadsheet. Takes some work to organize it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2019 21:34:15 GMT -5
Knowing he's a 19 year old pitcher is enough. Which should illustrate how enormous his potential was to be ranked 13th in all of baseball as a 19 year old. I know Pedro was comparing himself to him. I thought he was as good a pitching prospect as I'd ever seen. But I also thought they got 2+ years of control of a #2/#3 starter, and one whose stuff would play up against the elite hitters you see in the post-season. And when you're on the cusp of being a WS winner, you make that trade every time, because TNSTAAPP.
Pomeranz turned out to be a moderate disappointment; "all" we got from him was one year of a guy that good, and it was the difference between winning the division and being the WC. That doesn't suck.
Espinoza right now is looking to be historically disappointing.
Is it a coincidence that the two elite pitching prospects DDo dealt away both had TJ surgery? It wouldn't surprise me if they had some sophisticated model of TJ probability that factored into both deals. It is something that every team would be trying to come up with.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2019 22:31:24 GMT -5
The Rays are now 14-17 since July 15, except for sweeping us in Fenway. When we had just gone 5-2 against them and the Yankees. How did that happen?
I'll be disappointed if we don't catch them. I think you have to actually root for them to take 2 of 3 when they host the Indians this weekend.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 28, 2019 0:43:38 GMT -5
Which should illustrate how enormous his potential was to be ranked 13th in all of baseball as a 19 year old. I know Pedro was comparing himself to him. I thought he was as good a pitching prospect as I'd ever seen. But I also thought they got 2+ years of control of a #2/#3 starter, and one whose stuff would play up against the elite hitters you see in the post-season. And when you're on the cusp of being a WS winner, you make that trade every time, because TNSTAAPP. Pomeranz turned out to be a moderate disappointment; "all" we got from him was one year of a guy that good, and it was the difference between winning the division and being the WC. That doesn't suck. Espinoza right now is looking to be historically disappointing.
Is it a coincidence that the two elite pitching prospects DDo dealt away both had TJ surgery? It wouldn't surprise me if they had some sophisticated model of TJ probability that factored into both deals. It is something that every team would be trying to come up with.
The thing is, the third of the three top pitching prospects they had for that glorious month in 2016, the one who they didn't trade, ALSO had Tommy John surgery. All three have very different builds and mechanics. All three have/had electric stuff but in very different ways. I think it's just the nature of pitching. It's possible they did good biomechanical analysis, and it's possible that there was just value there and the pitchers had bad luck. Getting 4.0 bWAR for 2.5 years of Pomeranz was a slight disappointment, but it's also one of those situations where, because his value was so concentrated it made him more valuable. In a lot of ways it was similar to the Shane Victorino free agency signing - on a straight WAR/$$ it was just okay, but on a "this guy was the key component exactly when they needed him to be" curve. I also don't think it's clear they win that division in 2016 without him, because the guys he replaced were pretty far below replacement level. Once they moved on from the Joe Kelly starter thing, it was Sean O'Sullivan and disaster-era Henry Owens. Maybe that's not the difference between the 93 wins they ended up with and the 89 they would've needed, but it was probably closer than I'm comfortable with. It is wild that the Orioles made the playoffs that year. That was only three years ago!
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Post by soxjim on Aug 28, 2019 8:21:20 GMT -5
I always liked the Pomeranz trade before and now after. It's not that I thought it was steal or anything. I get you could not like the deal -- but the anger I thought was nuts. And even now if you still want to criticize it-- I think it crazy too. I don't think some understand that the Sox thought Pomeranz was a "2." I can;t find the article but I think that is what Bannister said. A pretty young young 2 that would have given them 2.5 years of high quality pitching. Secondly, I don't think they understand that low level guys are highly questionable. I can understand not liking the trade back then but not in a manner of "anger" (which was prevalent back then.). And after the fact - I don't see how this was bad as of right now. I don't understand a criticism for DD on this other than extremely mild or anyone that as fangraphs makes reference to in the below link vastly overrates the value of low level minor league players. blogs.fangraphs.com/did-the-red-sox-really-overpay-for-drew-pomeranz/
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