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8/30-9/1 Red Sox @ Angels Series Thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 31, 2019 3:00:33 GMT -5
I wish I had my bottle of whiskey next to me right now lol. We think alike, I wish I had your bottle of whiskey next to me too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 3:19:54 GMT -5
Great win. Has anyone in MLB history ever hit a leadoff homer and also the eventual game winner in the 15th or later?
They went another 1/6 with the tying or go-ahead run on base from the 7th onward, and as usual, they had bad luck; Moreland's line out to left had a .510 xBA and of course the hit failed to knock in a run.
One thing that bugged me hugely tonight was everyone, including Speier, treating the Indians' immense 1.5 game lead over the A's as a reason to classify them as a team we're not chasing. We can beat the Rays, but someone else has to beat the Indians.
Simple math: either the Indians or Rays are going to end that series with at least 80 wins. You really do not want the Indians to get to 81; you want to maximize the odds of catching them both. That means the Rays have to take 2 of 3 or sweep. A sweep might be even better, since we're not doing this unless we win at least 3 in our series with the Rays and gain 2 games.
O'Brien also asserted that all three teams we're chasing have been playing well, which is nonsense. We're now on an 11-3 mini-roll and the Rays have gone 8-8 and the Indians 7-9 (7-7 when not playing us). It's only the A's that are keeping us from closing on them, by going 11-5. In that stretch they're 7-1 against the Yankees and Astros. We're not catching them -- another reason why Tampa beating Cleveland is good.
In other news, Devers is on a pace for 97 XBH. That would not only be the team record as someone on the broadcast pointed out, it would be the most in MLB history for a player 23 or under. In fact, here's the complete list of 95+ seasons since 1937, for players 25 and under:
99 Albert Pujols 2004, age 24 95 Albert Pujols 2003, age 23
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 3:53:05 GMT -5
MVP’s of the game for me are Cashner and Darwinzon. Outstanding efforts from them Cashner is now second on the team for reliever's Win probability Added.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 31, 2019 4:23:46 GMT -5
When Trout homers tonight he'll pass Derek Jeter in career bWAR which will be a bittersweet moment for all of us. (I know that's not quite how WAR works but just roll with it) Funnily enough, when I saw this I had just looked him up on the fWAR leaderboards and seen that he just passed Jeter - now 73.3 to 73.1. So if you go by fWAR you get the best of both worlds - Jeter sucks and we can root against Trout (for 3 games; but I'm pulling for him to get another 10 WAR season). Pujols just became the 2018 Red Sox.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 31, 2019 4:37:08 GMT -5
My guess is Owings could get cut for a pitcher, maybe Chacin who's been with the club.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 31, 2019 6:51:52 GMT -5
Guess I picked the wrong night to go to bed in the 7th, up 6-3. Wow!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 31, 2019 7:43:48 GMT -5
My guess is Owings could get cut for a pitcher, maybe Chacin who's been with the club. Darwinzon can get optioned and come back on Tues. The 10-day rule is off. Maybe Owings would agree to do same. The double-double-headers in AAA means they gotnobody to give em length. Kyle Hart. Poor management. !!! They just spent all their pitching to play 5th-place Lehigh Valley! When they had plenty of fill ins from Greenville & Portland available. GCL ended & Lowell clinched. Plenty of arms for Greenville. Porcello should go today on short rest. For one day, throw away the neurotic management style.
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Post by jbsox on Aug 31, 2019 8:14:00 GMT -5
My guess is Owings could get cut for a pitcher, maybe Chacin who's been with the club. Darwinzon can get optioned and come back on Tues. The 10-day rule is off. Maybe Owings would agree to do same. The double-double-headers in AAA means they gotnobody to give em length. Kyle Hart. Poor management. !!! They just spent all their pitching to play 5th-place Lehigh Valley! When they had plenty of fill ins from Greenville & Portland available. GCL ended & Lowell clinched. Plenty of arms for Greenville. Porcello should go today on short rest. For one day, throw away the neurotic management style. Larkins and Brewer didn’t pitch yesterday (2 innings each 2 days ago) maybe they would be options, Weber hasn’t pitched the last few days is probably available for multiple innings, and don’t forget Josh Smith didn’t pitch today. Lol
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 31, 2019 8:31:05 GMT -5
Maybe they'll come to their senses and have Price start today. They were planning on 60 pitches from Price?
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 31, 2019 9:00:58 GMT -5
Hey it's Mata's day to pitch. Give him 3 innings....Desperate times..
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Post by incandenza on Aug 31, 2019 11:10:24 GMT -5
Funnily enough, when I saw this I had just looked him up on the fWAR leaderboards and seen that he just passed Jeter - now 73.3 to 73.1. So if you go by fWAR you get the best of both worlds - Jeter sucks and we can root against Trout (for 3 games; but I'm pulling for him to get another 10 WAR season). Pujols just became the 2018 Red Sox. Kind of less of an accomplishment if you take into account that he was at 101.2 WAR at the end of the 2016 season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 11:18:00 GMT -5
Cashner threw just 48 pitches to get a relief win with .655 Win Probability Added (per b-Ref, which adjusts WPA for offense while FanGraphs doesn't) despite not entering with any inherited runner jam to pitch out of.
(Yeah, the <50 pitch criterion is a little gimmicky, but in this case it's an "I could have kept going!" factor.)
How rare is that? On August 4, 2000, Jason Johnson pitched a perfect 12th through 15th for the O's against Tampa, throwing just 42 pitches, 30 for strikes. The O's had blown leads of 8-1 and, going into the bottom of the 8th, 9-4. Johnson got the win when the O's rallied with 2 outs: Brady Anderson walked and Melvin Mora and Delino DeShields singled.
That's the only other instance in this century of a pitcher picking up a win and .6 WPA without pitching out of a jam, while throwing fewer than 50 pitches. And leaving the pitch # criterion aside, Johnson and Cashner are the only two (out of 17) to throw hitless ball.
There were only two games this century that fit the criterion without the pitcher getting the win, and one came in a famous Sox game (at least to me).
Julian Tavarez on July 9, 2006 had a 4 1 0 0 1 2 line throwing 49 pitches from the 13th to the 16th, for .608 WPA. That was the game against the White Sox where Papelbon gave up a 2-out game-tying HR to the White Sox' Jermaine Dye, and the Sox lost in 19 when Rudy Seanez gave up four straight singles (after they had gotten 2 off of Bobby Jenks in the 11th and Timlin gave up 2 in the bottom half).
I was at my science fiction convention and saw Dye's home run in my hotel room. Hours later I was walking through the hotel lobby and they had the game on in a big TV, and I thought at first that it was the replay -- it seemed inconceivable that they were still playing.
The other huge contrast besides the game outcome -- and I bet you remembered this, as I did -- that was the last game before the ASB. Whereas we already had a bullpen game planned for the next evening.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 11:38:03 GMT -5
One thing that bugged me hugely tonight was everyone, including Speier, treating the Indians' immense 1.5 game lead over the A's as a reason to classify them as a team we're not chasing. We can beat the Rays, but someone else has to beat the Indians.
Simple math: either the Indians or Rays are going to end that series with at least 80 wins. You really do not want the Indians to get to 81; you want to maximize the odds of catching them both. That means the Rays have to take 2 of 3 or sweep. A sweep might be even better, since we're not doing this unless we win at least 3 in our series with the Rays and gain 2 games.
O'Brien also asserted that all three teams we're chasing have been playing well, which is nonsense. We're now on an 11-3 mini-roll and the Rays have gone 8-8 and the Indians 7-9 (7-7 when not playing us). It's only the A's that are keeping us from closing on them, by going 11-5. In that stretch they're 7-1 against the Yankees and Astros. We're not catching them -- another reason why Tampa beating Cleveland is good. They're now a total 16 games behind the three clubs in the loss column. On August 12 it was 29.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 12:16:07 GMT -5
[Darwinzon can get optioned and come back on Tues. The 10-day rule is off. Maybe Owings would agree to do same. E-Rod, Brasier, Walden, Taylor, Barnes, and Hernandez all have options left.
Jhoulys Chacin hasn't pitched in relief since 2016 and would require a 40-man move, which they're going to need for Dalbec and Centeno ... and Wright to the 60-day and a DFA for Curletta seems like the only obvious moves (if they DFA Owings, they'll probably add Chatham).
Of guys who might be on a plane as we speak ... Lakins has been great since the game before his last call-up, and threw 29 pitches two days ago. Brewer threw 33 pitches two days ago. His last 3 outings have been very good, but his first 5 after he was sent down were awful. He's been less effective in MLB than Lakins has. Trevor Kelley threw 41 pitches 2 days ago. After his sip of coffee he was awful / brilliant / awful in 5 / 7 / 7 games, but has been very good in his last 3. Ryan Weber has been starting and would be going on 3 days rest. Shawaryn started yesterday, and Poyner threw 31 pitches in relief. He's been commanding the zone since the ASB (27 K, 5 BB in 21.1 IP), but has given up 5 HR for a .210 / .273 / .444 line with an 3.80 ERA. I don't think we see him in September.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 12:30:32 GMT -5
Porcello should go today on short rest. For one day, throw away the neurotic management style. He'll be going on 6 days rest otherwise, Tuesday against the Twins. He's never pitched on 3 days rest in his career, but I bet that he volunteers. When they come home, E-Rod and Eovaldi can go on 5 and 4 days instead of 6 and 5.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2019 12:59:50 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 31, 2019 13:10:34 GMT -5
A counting stat that likely won't draw much notice, but that I thought was cool: based on where Devers (314), Bogaerts (296), Martinez (287), and Betts (267) are today, we stand a pretty good chance of finishing the year with four guys with over 300 total bases.
EDIT: I defer to Eric Van ...see below!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 31, 2019 13:16:09 GMT -5
Josh Taylor gets the ball tonight in Anaheim!
Opener
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 13:33:08 GMT -5
A counting stat that likely won't draw much notice, but that I thought was cool: based on where Devers (314), Bogaerts (296), Martinez (287), and Betts (267) are today, we stand a pretty good chance of finishing the year with four guys with over 300 total bases. If that's ever happened in franchise history, I couldn't find it. (The 2011 club came close with Ellsbury, A-Gon, and Pedroia all over 300 and Ortiz at 291. Three did it in 1950 also.) 1984. Tony Armas (339), Dwight Evans (335), Mike Easler (310), Jim Rice (307). The 3rd team in modern MLB history to do it ('30 Cubs, '69 Reds). It's been done 7 times since, most recently in '07 by the Phillies and '08 by the Mets. The 2000 Angels are the only team with 5 (Erstad, Glaus, Garrett Anderson, Salmon, and Vaughn).
The 1950 team had Walt Dropo 326, Vern Stephens 321, Bobby Doerr 304. Williams missed it for the first time in his career; he missed 55 games with an injury (and another 6 relegated to a PH upon his return) and ended with 216 in 89 games. That projects to 360+.
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 31, 2019 13:40:07 GMT -5
A counting stat that likely won't draw much notice, but that I thought was cool: based on where Devers (314), Bogaerts (296), Martinez (287), and Betts (267) are today, we stand a pretty good chance of finishing the year with four guys with over 300 total bases. If that's ever happened in franchise history, I couldn't find it. (The 2011 club came close with Ellsbury, A-Gon, and Pedroia all over 300 and Ortiz at 291. Three did it in 1950 also.) 1984. Tony Armas (339), Dwight Evans (335), Mike Easler (310), Jim Rice (307). The 3rd team in modern MLB history to do it ('30 Cubs, '69 Reds). It's been done 7 times since, most recently in '07 by the Phillies and '08 by the Mets. The 2000 Angels are the only team with 5 (Erstad, Glaus, Garrett Anderson, Salmon, and Vaughn).
The 1950 team had Walt Dropo 326, Vern Stephens 321, Bobby Doerr 304. Williams missed it for the first time in his career; he missed 55 games with an injury (and another 6 relegated to a PH upon his return) and ended with 216 in 89 games. That projects to 360+.
Excellent...I had a feeling I was missing something. Curse you, baseballreference!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2019 13:51:31 GMT -5
1984. Tony Armas (339), Dwight Evans (335), Mike Easler (310), Jim Rice (307). The 3rd team in modern MLB history to do it ('30 Cubs, '69 Reds). It's been done 7 times since, most recently in '07 by the Phillies and '08 by the Mets. The 2000 Angels are the only team with 5 (Erstad, Glaus, Garrett Anderson, Salmon, and Vaughn).
The 1950 team had Walt Dropo 326, Vern Stephens 321, Bobby Doerr 304. Williams missed it for the first time in his career; he missed 55 games with an injury (and another 6 relegated to a PH upon his return) and ended with 216 in 89 games. That projects to 360+.
Excellent...I had a feeling I was missing something. Curse you, baseballreference!
The Play Index costs just $36 a year, plus 50 hours of your time.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 31, 2019 15:13:18 GMT -5
A's scored on Ottavino. Lead 3-2 in 8th.
If Sox make no roster moves and go with the 8 pitchers they have available ... what will they think in the 13th inning tonight? They'll be glad they hung tough against Lehigh Valley!
Josh Smith will be in the spotlight. 4 innings needed.
-- Cleveland Indians left fielder Tyler Naquin has a torn ACL in his right knee, the second major injury the team has suffered in a week
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 31, 2019 15:36:29 GMT -5
Seems to weird to hope the MFY walk it off in bottom 9. Actually just started watching it on mlb.tv
Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland - one or more of these teams has to lose some games eventually...don't they?!
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 31, 2019 16:11:23 GMT -5
RHP Trevino birdies the 9th & 10th, double-bogeys the 11th. Oakland loses.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 31, 2019 16:14:05 GMT -5
RHP Trevino birdies the 9th & 10th, double-bogeys the 11th. Oakland loses. Huzzzzaaah!!!!
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