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Jackie Bradley
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Mar 11, 2013 12:55:47 GMT -5
I find it absolutely hysterical that a Jackie Bradley thread turned into a steroid discussion. Anyway, I'm going out on a limb and predicting that JBJ makes the team out of camp with Gomes DH'ing and Ortiz missing the first 3 months of the season. I'm with ya. Why the bleep should the Red Sox care about an extra year? If he's good, he should be locked up long before that. Bradley, Victorino and Ellsbury would definitely be the fastest OF in Red Sox history. Would rival any wouldn't it?
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 11, 2013 13:21:17 GMT -5
The Ellsbury/Crisp/Drew outfield in '08 would give them a run. Bradley isn't really a burner, he just has great defensive instincts. Wouldn't be at all surprised to find out if J.D. had the better footspeed, even at that point in his career. My gut is that Crisp was faster than Victorino is, but it's close.
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Post by leo on Mar 11, 2013 13:26:33 GMT -5
I don't get the whole Bradley discussion. Not at all. He shows superior defense, and has absolutely mashed against MLB pitching thus far. Way to ruin his confidence by sending him back to the minors. It's like, what else does he need to do to justify a spot on the Red Sox team?
[sarcasm] Oh I get it, the first pitch homer is a clear sign of lacking plate discipline. [/sarcasm]
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 11, 2013 14:05:42 GMT -5
May 17th as an injury fill-in, goes up and down for rest of year.
Bonus question, "does he exhaust his rookie eligibility this year?": Yes
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 11, 2013 14:07:46 GMT -5
I don't get the whole Bradley discussion. Not at all. He shows superior defense, and has absolutely mashed against MLB pitching thus far. Way to ruin his confidence by sending him back to the minors. It's like, what else does he need to do to justify a spot on the Red Sox team? [sarcasm] Oh I get it, the first pitch homer is a clear sign of lacking plate discipline. [/sarcasm] I don't think there's too much to worry about, either with his confidence or his plate discipline. It's all about contracts and playing time. Absent a trade before opening day, the Sox have three outfielders who will be getting playing time: Victorino, Gomes and Ellsbury. I don't see them putting Bradley on the bench as a platoon for Gomes. That would be a misuse of his talents. Ellsbury is in his contract year and will be given every opportunity to make good on the promise of 2011. That leaves Victorino who was signed for a bit of money. Benching him before the season even starts would send a sour message about this front office, wouldn't it? I was anticipating that Bradley might do exactly what he's doing this spring, but there's no way the team could plan for that during the pre-season, and they had to give themselves some short-term options which they did. We just have to understand that this performance is a prelude to what will come probably later this year. Right now there's no room.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 11, 2013 14:13:32 GMT -5
I don't get the whole Bradley discussion. Not at all. He shows superior defense, and has absolutely mashed against MLB pitching thus far. Way to ruin his confidence by sending him back to the minors. It's like, what else does he need to do to justify a spot on the Red Sox team? [sarcasm] Oh I get it, the first pitch homer is a clear sign of lacking plate discipline. [/sarcasm] In case this post wasn't entirely sarcastic, spring training stats are meaningless. Accepting this as fact is key to appreciating ST for what it is.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2013 14:35:42 GMT -5
Why should the placement and development plan for Bradley change based upon a handful of spring training ABs? Is it really wise for a team to ditch its' plan based upon so little additional information?
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Post by mainesox on Mar 11, 2013 14:48:41 GMT -5
I'll play; I say he's up on June 13. Why? I don't know.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 11, 2013 15:28:24 GMT -5
Why should the placement and development plan for Bradley change based upon a handful of spring training ABs? Is it really wise for a team to ditch its' plan based upon so little additional information? No it isn't and they won't. The only way it would have been a possibility was if the team decided they wouldn't look elsewhere to fill the outfield holes. Teams do that all the time but it wasn't going to happen with the Red Sox. There were calls, many on this board, to get Josh Hamilton on board. That's a far cry from letting a newcomer move into an empty spot. The team chose to get those short-term options in place, and they took heat for that even though the contracts don't extend beyond three years. The press would have been merciless if they'd done nothing. There hasn't been any Sox' prospect with this level of selectivity and plate discipline in a while, and my own opinion, stated after last year's show, was that Bradley could start tomorrow. There's no way they could bank on that, and they were wise to do exactly what they did.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2013 15:53:02 GMT -5
Is there any evidence that players with strong plate discipline need less time in the minors?
Jackie Bradley did show good plate discipline last year, but his time in AA was very limited. Further he didn't show dominant tools or performance. To me that's the profile of a player who needs another year or so of development before being ready to start in the majors.
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Post by sammo420 on Mar 11, 2013 16:00:54 GMT -5
I don't get the whole Bradley discussion. Not at all. He shows superior defense, and has absolutely mashed against MLB pitching thus far. Way to ruin his confidence by sending him back to the minors. It's like, what else does he need to do to justify a spot on the Red Sox team? [sarcasm] Oh I get it, the first pitch homer is a clear sign of lacking plate discipline. [/sarcasm] In case this post wasn't entirely sarcastic, spring training stats are meaningless. Accepting this as fact is key to appreciating ST for what it is. Are you telling me that Iggy Suarez isn't the second coming of Babe Ruth?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 11, 2013 16:04:26 GMT -5
I don't get the whole Bradley discussion. Not at all. He shows superior defense, and has absolutely mashed against MLB pitching thus far. Way to ruin his confidence by sending him back to the minors. It's like, what else does he need to do to justify a spot on the Red Sox team? [sarcasm] Oh I get it, the first pitch homer is a clear sign of lacking plate discipline. [/sarcasm] You really think what he's faced in Florida so far qualifies as "major league pitching"?
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Post by jmei on Mar 11, 2013 16:30:57 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley did show good plate discipline last year, but his time in AA was very limited. Further he didn't show dominant tools or performance. To me that's the profile of a player who needs another year or so of development before being ready to start in the majors. .357/.479/.523 at A+ Salem, .447 wOBA, 180 wRC+, tied for the best batting line in the Carolina league (min. 300 PAs) (other player is Cyle Hankerd, a 27-year-old post-prospect who has played for three different organizations in the last three years) .275/.376/.441 at AA Portland, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 12th best batting line in the Eastern league (min. 250 PAs, age 24 and under (Bradley was 22)). Only two players both hit better and were younger than Bradley (Oswaldo Arcia, Wilmer Flores). Per Baseball Prospectus, a 7 (plus-plus) fielding tool, 5+ (above-average to plus) hit tool. Per his SoxProspects profile, plus batspeed, plus hitter for average, plus-plus defender. I don't think he should make the team out of spring training, but he's shown both elite performance and elite tools in 2012.
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Post by bluechip on Mar 11, 2013 17:44:59 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley did show good plate discipline last year, but his time in AA was very limited. Further he didn't show dominant tools or performance. To me that's the profile of a player who needs another year or so of development before being ready to start in the majors. .357/.479/.523 at A+ Salem, .447 wOBA, 180 wRC+, tied for the best batting line in the Carolina league (min. 300 PAs) (other player is Cyle Hankerd, a 27-year-old post-prospect who has played for three different organizations in the last three years) .275/.376/.441 at AA Portland, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 12th best batting line in the Eastern league (min. 250 PAs, age 24 and under (Bradley was 22)). Only two players both hit better and were younger than Bradley (Oswaldo Arcia, Wilmer Flores). Per Baseball Prospectus, a 7 (plus-plus) fielding tool, 5+ (above-average to plus) hit tool. Per his SoxProspects profile, plus batspeed, plus hitter for average, plus-plus defender. I don't think he should make the team out of spring training, but he's shown both elite performance and elite tools in 2012. To add to this, he was voted as having the best bat, best outfield arm, best outfield defense, and best base running skills in the Carolina League. He also was voted as having the best plate discipline in the Carolina League. Baseball America notes that he has no major adjustments to make.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Mar 11, 2013 19:06:30 GMT -5
I predict that JBJ will come up late in the season, have a 900 OPS for 5 weeks, then star in the postseason. Then he'll have two promising but unspectacular seasons of 729 and 770 OPS, then he'll get by a truck and lose most of season, then come back and do amazing things for a year before getting hit by a truck again.
This has all happened before, and it will all happen again.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Mar 11, 2013 20:41:21 GMT -5
JBJ is the 2nd coming of Kirby Puckett, without the eye issues. Enthusiastic. Somewhat squat and he's got game. I think he may well put up one or two 20 HR years but that will be a challenge since he's probably locked in with the Sox until he is 28-29.
Did he need more development last year or did he just get tired in AA ball? I'm starting to wonder if he does need more development.
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Post by patrmac04 on Mar 11, 2013 20:51:30 GMT -5
.357/.479/.523 at A+ Salem, .447 wOBA, 180 wRC+, tied for the best batting line in the Carolina league (min. 300 PAs) (other player is Cyle Hankerd, a 27-year-old post-prospect who has played for three different organizations in the last three years) .275/.376/.441 at AA Portland, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 12th best batting line in the Eastern league (min. 250 PAs, age 24 and under (Bradley was 22)). Only two players both hit better and were younger than Bradley (Oswaldo Arcia, Wilmer Flores). Per Baseball Prospectus, a 7 (plus-plus) fielding tool, 5+ (above-average to plus) hit tool. Per his SoxProspects profile, plus batspeed, plus hitter for average, plus-plus defender. I don't think he should make the team out of spring training, but he's shown both elite performance and elite tools in 2012. To add to this, he was voted as having the best bat, best outfield arm, best outfield defense, and best base running skills in the Carolina League. He also was voted as having the best plate discipline in the Carolina League. Baseball America notes that he has no major adjustments to make. Above all else... the question of, "does jackie make this team better now?" I think the answer is clear; yes... an outfield with him and Ells would be insane! Not only would the team upgrade defense and offense... but it's marketability. Simply put, a team with Bradley increases the chances of selling out Fenway as well as improving the team IMO. If he appears to be a better option immediately, then screw the years... play the man and pay the man when his time is up. The sox have the money... don't be cheap now. I would rather have him go through growing pains early and have on the job training in Fenway. The man is quite ready for the mlb to even the casual observer. Selfishly... I look forward to watching him much more than the current corner outfield options. Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 11, 2013 21:18:32 GMT -5
[quote author=" patrmac04" source="/post/12475/thread" timestamp="1363053090 I think the answer is clear; yes... an outfield with him and Ells would be insane! If he appears to be a better option immediately, then screw the years... play the man and pay the man when his time is up. The sox have the money... don't be cheap now. I would rather have him go through growing pains early and have on the job training in Fenway. The man is quite ready for the mlb to even the casual observer. Selfishly... I look forward to watching him much more than the current corner outfield options. Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards [/quote] Why would you say "screw the years?" That thinking makes practically no sense to me. If Jackie Bradley Jr turns out to be better than a Denard Span type, then why in the world would you sacrifice having control over him during the entire 2019 season when he might be at his peak and could be a difference maker on a team that could be World Championship caliber so you can have him in April of 2013, a season in which the Sox are not exactly World Championship caliber? What would one month of Mike Carp/Daniel Nava, etc? versus Jackie Bradley Jr cost the Sox in the standings in 2013? I'd say relatively little if anything at all. I know the guy is having a great spring training, and I look forward to seeing him soon, but let the guy conquer AA before annointing him as the answer. I mean we're talking spring training here. A great spring training shouldn't make the Sox want to sacrifice one season of Bradley's Red Sox career. And for those saying throw the money at him once he's a free agent, are you sure you're going to want to do that? I mean, wasn't Ellsbury a great prospect? Hasn't he had some good to great years? Want to throw 7 to 8 years worth $140 million to $160 million at him to keep him? No, so why be anxious to giving Boras the contract he wants for Bradley earlier than you'd have to. And if he is THAT great, I'm sure Boras would shop him around and it wouldn't be a given the Sox would have the highest offer. Point is - don't let a great spring training get in the way of doing what's best for Bradley and the Sox as an organization long-term. The difference between a Championship and not winning one in 2013 won't be waiting a month to call up Bradley - and frankly, I think we won't see Bradley until after the all-star break, and it might be best for both parties. The Red Sox are handling this correctly.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 11, 2013 21:42:02 GMT -5
The man is quite ready for the mlb to even the casual observer. Where was all this noise before he had 20-odd good spring training plate appearences?
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Post by bluechip on Mar 11, 2013 21:42:32 GMT -5
[quote author=" patrmac04" source="/post/12475/thread" timestamp="1363053090 I think the answer is clear; yes... an outfield with him and Ells would be insane! If he appears to be a better option immediately, then screw the years... play the man and pay the man when his time is up. The sox have the money... don't be cheap now. I would rather have him go through growing pains early and have on the job training in Fenway. The man is quite ready for the mlb to even the casual observer. Selfishly... I look forward to watching him much more than the current corner outfield options. Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards Why would you say "screw the years?" That thinking makes practically no sense to me. If Jackie Bradley Jr turns out to be better than a Denard Span type, then why in the world would you sacrifice having control over him during the entire 2019 season when he might be at his peak and could be a difference maker on a team that could be World Championship caliber so you can have him in April of 2013, a season in which the Sox are not exactly World Championship caliber? What would one month of Mike Carp/Daniel Nava, etc? versus Jackie Bradley Jr cost the Sox in the standings in 2013? I'd say relatively little if anything at all. I know the guy is having a great spring training, and I look forward to seeing him soon, but let the guy conquer AA before annointing him as the answer. I mean we're talking spring training here. A great spring training shouldn't make the Sox want to sacrifice one season of Bradley's Red Sox career. And for those saying throw the money at him once he's a free agent, are you sure you're going to want to do that? I mean, wasn't Ellsbury a great prospect? Hasn't he had some good to great years? Want to throw 7 to 8 years worth $140 million to $160 million at him to keep him? No, so why be anxious to giving Boras the contract he wants for Bradley earlier than you'd have to. And if he is THAT great, I'm sure Boras would shop him around and it wouldn't be a given the Sox would have the highest offer. Point is - don't let a great spring training get in the way of doing what's best for Bradley and the Sox as an organization long-term. The difference between a Championship and not winning one in 2013 won't be waiting a month to call up Bradley - and frankly, I think we won't see Bradley until after the all-star break, and it might be best for both parties. The Red Sox are handling this correctly. [/quote] Another thing to consider is super 2 status. Bringing him up at the wrong time could cost the Red Sox millions in arbitration. Those millions could be the difference between signing a key free agent or not in a few years.
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Post by raftsox on Mar 12, 2013 6:39:22 GMT -5
The man is quite ready for the mlb to even the casual observer. Where was all this noise before he had 20-odd good spring training plate appearences? Small sample size restrictions are only applicable when they're working against you.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 12, 2013 8:49:29 GMT -5
Going into the offseason, consensus was that Bradley's ETA was mid- to late-2013 and that he could stand time in AAA for experience/refinement. An impressive Spring Training - the stat line is not as important as observed progress via scouting, but it certainly seems like he's on the right track - doesn't change that timetable much, but what's there to change - a difference of a month or three?
Does anyone actually dispute that Bradley is already equivalent to a competent major league CF? It's just a matter of when the opening will come and exactly how far along the bat will be when he hits the bigs.
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Post by terriblehondo on Mar 12, 2013 9:28:42 GMT -5
I have been a huge fan of JBJ since South Carolina and I see no reason to rush him. The extra at bats in the Minors will not hurt him at all. If Els has another Major injury bring him up if not they should let him force the issue. If he tears it up at AAA bring him up during the season. All I really know is I love to watch this kid play Center field.
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Post by jmei on Mar 12, 2013 10:08:04 GMT -5
Here are my two problems with bringing him up early:
(1) His value is maximized in CF or (maybe) RF in Fenway. His only truly elite skill is defense (both in terms of range and arm strength/accuracy), which becomes less valuable in LF and especially since he plays half his games in front of the monster. Bradley is clearly the first callup if either Ellsbury or Victorino gets hurt, but sticking him in LF is clearly less than ideal. Plus, he probably won't play everyday (probably sitting versus lefties), given the desire to give Napoli some DH time as well, which would push Gomes into LF.
(2) Bradley still has work to do in the minor leagues. His defense is absolutely MLB-ready, but getting a few more at bats emphasizing going the other way against outside pitches and hitting inside the ball against pitches in can only help. He can also probably hone his basestealing skills, which are particularly important if he's to inherit the leadoff role. While he doesn't have the speed to be a burner, putting more practice into reading deliveries and developing basestealing instincts can help him become a guy who can steal an efficient 15-20 bases a year, a la Pedroia.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2013 12:26:09 GMT -5
Yet you gave evidence of a player who didn't show either. It could be just a matter of semantics, where we both evaluate the player the same way, but are using different terms to describe him. For me the term "elite", is one I use very sparingly. I wouldn't assign that term to any positional prospect right now other than Profar and Tavarez and I certainly wouldn't call a player with a 55 bat "elite".
BTW, if we had Tavarez I wouldn't have any problem starting him in the show.
As for where he should play, I think Ryan Kalish in 2010 is a good analogy. He started out in AA but was so good after 150 PAs or so that he was promoted. Bradley has a few less AA reps than Kalish did, so I wouldn't have any problem leaving him in AA for the bulk of the year.
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