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Jackie Bradley
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2013 22:31:08 GMT -5
Bradley right now is hitting very well in spring training so far. still very early though. Even though it is unlikely unless he plays every day, what are the chances that he makes the team out of camp this year?
It may be too fast considering he only hit .271 in just 61 games with AA portland last year, but we all know he is more talented than that. the sox will only want him playing every day, so unless of an injury, i think he should start the year in AA or AAA. in the case of an injury or if ellsbury is traded, then i would bring him up. i would like to do it after may 1st, so his service time is delayed and he would be under team control for another year in his prime.
also, if another outfielder such as gomes or victorino goes on the DL, I think brentz could also step in if is leg is all healed. he has good power potential and probably be knocking on the door this year. hassan, hazelbaker, linares, and maier are also back-up options if a current outfielder goes down
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Feb 28, 2013 22:36:36 GMT -5
I don't see any way Bradley breaks camp with Boston, unless Ellsbury gets injured or traded (the latter won't happen this early).
There's no way they're going to platoon him with Gomes or Victorino, as he needs to play daily in order to develop more, and there's absolutely no way he ends up on the bench.
If he continues to perform at his current pace, then he'll be Pawtucket bound.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 28, 2013 23:38:25 GMT -5
I only seem breaking camp with the big league club if Ellsbury or Victorino is hurt. I supposed it would also be possible if Bradley continues to crush the ball and if Oritz is hurt and Gomes and his platoon partner slides to DH, but in that situation, the team might go a different direction.
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Post by mainesox on Mar 1, 2013 1:07:39 GMT -5
what are the chances that he makes the team out of camp this year? Slightly better than zero.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 1, 2013 8:41:18 GMT -5
Does bringing him up in May give the Sox an extra year of him or does it just delay his arbitration so he's not a super two?
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Mar 1, 2013 9:21:06 GMT -5
Zero chance. This team may or may not contend. A lot of things have to go right to turn this team around. Why rush him and hurt his development and burn major service time when he is best served to improve his all around game in the minors this season.
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Post by mrnewengland on Mar 1, 2013 9:55:52 GMT -5
Agreeing with the "he's staying in the minors" camp. He's never seen AAA (I think that's where he'll be this year but I'm too lazy to look) and he really doesn't have that much playing time in AA. It's great that he caught fire in Spring Training but... it's Spring Training. Plus it may be a hot streak. Let him prove himself in AAA and then come up if Ellsbury gets hurt (or traded - I'd actually like to see that if we're not competitive... really stock up for the future).
Still... the idea of a defensive JBJ - Ellsbury - Victorino outfield is pretty awesome.
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Post by mrnewengland on Mar 1, 2013 9:56:55 GMT -5
Also: might be a good thing to keep his clock from starting. A little extra cost controlled time for when we're contenders again is a good thing.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 1, 2013 13:22:32 GMT -5
I don't see any way Bradley breaks camp with Boston, unless Ellsbury gets injured or traded (the latter won't happen this early). There's no way they're going to platoon him with Gomes or Victorino, as he needs to play daily in order to develop more, and there's absolutely no way he ends up on the bench. If he continues to perform at his current pace, then he'll be Pawtucket bound. I agree with all of this, but one factor to consider: players only net draft picks if they're on a team's roster on Opening Day, so Ellsbury's more valuable before Opening Day than he is after. That said, I think the Sox only trade him if they fall out of contention, so I agree with the overall point ... I just don't think JBJ is totally ready offensively. And as long as Ellsbury is in Boston, the cost/benefit of keeping JBJ in Boston doesn't work out.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 1, 2013 13:50:36 GMT -5
I've been one of Bradley's biggest supporters, and I'm not sure what totally ready means. He's got tremendous patience, outstanding plate discipline, and he's a superior defender, built for the position he plays. I have no doubt he'll put up an .800+ OPS from the moment he steps on a ML field, AAA time or not. I was even impressed with his Portland showing despite the fact he was gassed as he made his way to 600 PAs. He doubled his home run production over his Salem totals in fewer at bats, and he maintained the 100+ points of discipline. But none of that is the issue.
There's no room for him and sitting him on the bench makes no sense at all. He'll be called up before the year's out. For now, either in AA where he can see a lot of the pitching he'll re-visit in the majors, or in AAA where he'll come up against older players still trying to work their stuff, he can continue to hone those skills. He's the perfect lead-off man and if Ellsbury's demands are beyond what the team is willing to pay, it's guaranteed he'll start at Fenway next year.
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Mar 1, 2013 16:24:36 GMT -5
I don't see any way Bradley breaks camp with Boston, unless Ellsbury gets injured or traded (the latter won't happen this early). There's no way they're going to platoon him with Gomes or Victorino, as he needs to play daily in order to develop more, and there's absolutely no way he ends up on the bench. If he continues to perform at his current pace, then he'll be Pawtucket bound. I agree with all of this, but one factor to consider: players only net draft picks if they're on a team's roster on Opening Day, so Ellsbury's more valuable before Opening Day than he is after. That said, I think the Sox only trade him if they fall out of contention, so I agree with the overall point ... I just don't think JBJ is totally ready offensively. And as long as Ellsbury is in Boston, the cost/benefit of keeping JBJ in Boston doesn't work out. I see where you're coming from, but I don't think his value is significantly higher now just because of the attached draft pick. His current value is relatively low, and the fact that a team can earn a draft pick if they trade for him now as opposed to the trade line won't net Boston better prospects or a better package.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 1, 2013 18:02:11 GMT -5
I have no doubt he'll put up an .800+ OPS from the moment he steps on a ML field, AAA time or not. Dude, that's crazy. If that was anything close to a reasonable projection, he'd be nipping at Profar's heals in the various credible top-100s.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 1, 2013 18:23:24 GMT -5
I know its crazy, but given his hitting skills, I just don't see him having an on-base pct of less than .350-.360 and that may be low. When you start with that as a base, it doesn't take a ridiculous amount of slugging to get you there. If you were to try to build yourself a leadoff hitter I think that person would look a lot like Bradley.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 1, 2013 19:54:37 GMT -5
I have no doubt he'll put up an .800+ OPS from the moment he steps on a ML field, AAA time or not. Dude, that's crazy. If that was anything close to a reasonable projection, he'd be nipping at Profar's heals in the various credible top-100s. If those rankings were redone now, it's conceivable to think some people would move him up their rankings. Also, te ranking don mean anything with regards to Norms prediction.
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Post by jioh on Mar 1, 2013 20:11:11 GMT -5
Dude, that's crazy. If that was anything close to a reasonable projection, he'd be nipping at Profar's heals in the various credible top-100s. If those rankings were redone now, it's conceivable to think some people would move him up their rankings. Also, te ranking don mean anything with regards to Norms prediction. Yes rankings often change radically when a minor leaguer has a good first week of Spring Training.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 1, 2013 21:06:06 GMT -5
Spring Training is awesome.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Mar 1, 2013 22:45:55 GMT -5
The bettter JBJ looks, are the Sox tempted to deal Jacoby before the season starts? The team acquiring him gets draft pick compensation if they offer arbitration. Can still put JBJ in AAA, and Victorino in CF. Bring him up in 5-6 weeks.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 2, 2013 8:42:58 GMT -5
Yes rankings often change radically when a minor leaguer has a good first week of Spring Training. Spring Training is a great time to update scouting reports after an off-season of work and gauge performance against a variety of competition.
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Post by bluechip on Mar 2, 2013 9:19:50 GMT -5
Yes rankings often change radically when a minor leaguer has a good first week of Spring Training. Spring Training is a great time to update scouting reports after an off-season of work and gauge performance against a variety of competition. Yes. It's not necessarily the performance during the first week, but during the offseason is when many players add muscle (or fat) and refine mechanics.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 2, 2013 10:41:27 GMT -5
If those rankings were redone now, it's conceivable to think some people would move him up their rankings. Also, te ranking don mean anything with regards to Norms prediction. Yes rankings often change radically when a minor leaguer has a good first week of Spring Training. I'm sensing sarcasm here. Whether, a small spring training sample should affect things or not doesn't really matter. The truth is it probably would as most rankings are done with very little firsthand knowledge by the ranker. A huge reason a lot of them are so similar in a sport like baseball when they should be all over the place is because people are working off the same scouting reports with a small amount of firsthand knowledge thrown in. It's an extremely imperfect science. Baseball is a funny game. JBjr could be a payer who has his best years in his mid 20s because he's already matured mentally and he's at his physical peak. Why wait much, if he shows through spring he can handle ajr league pitching? You could waste one of the better years of his career. Plenty of really good players ave strong rookie campaigns at his age. They don't necessarily need a earning curve.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 2, 2013 12:28:46 GMT -5
I admit I've been giving Bradley's potential OBP a lot of thought. He has always been this type of player when I saw him at South Carolina and later in the Instructional League. He is a guy who will look at a lot of pitches, foul off a lot of good pitches, and eventually get a pitch he can do something with positively. He is the ideal lead-off hitter minus one thing. He does not have blazing speed. He runs well and is probably smarter on the base paths that most players, but his speed is probably just slightly above average.
Back to the OBP. I really can see him in his prime years being at or close to .400. I can't ever see him below .360 because of his batting style. Add a slugging % of .400 to .450 and you will, I believe, consistently be at or above .800. He has solid gap power. His doubles total should be interesting and will eventually blossom (somewhat) in to a few homers. He certainly could produce 35 to 40 doubles playing in a doubles "heaven" like Fenway.
The great thing about JBjr is he will constantly be standing at 2nd base and then scoring quite a few runs for the "good guys" (sorry Harrelson).
It is always easy to go over-board, but I can see a 5 year run of: - BA of .300 plus - OBP of .390 plus - OPS of .800 plus - 20 steals - 35 doubles plus - 8 to 12 homers - 100 plus runs scored - and a freakin "Gold Glove" every year during that period
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 2, 2013 14:44:01 GMT -5
I can't ever see him below .360 because of his batting style. Add a slugging % of .400 to .450 and you will, I believe, consistently be at or above .800. The kind of player you're describing basically doesn't exist. Over the last three calendar years, there's been ONE player who's carried a .370+ OPB without at least a .150 ISO and that's Joe Mauer. Jackie Bradley has a nice hit tool and approach and whatnot, but he ain't no Joe Mauer. You just can't walk that much against MLB pitching if you're mainly a doubles threat (unless you're Joe Mauer).
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Post by elguapo on Mar 2, 2013 18:26:44 GMT -5
Tim Raines is a more relevant model of a high OBP, low ISO leadoff hitter. I wouldn't expect Bradley to walk or steal as much as Raines, but then he'll add value as a top defensive CF. Do that for 18 years consistently and not get injured and he'd have a HOF case. Not many players achieve that, but many more put together 5-8 seasons of excellence, which is very realistic for a player with Bradley's makeup, tools, and track record.
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dd
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Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Mar 2, 2013 18:27:52 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 2, 2013 18:40:10 GMT -5
Tim Raines is a more relevant model of a high OBP, low ISO leadoff hitter. To paraphrase Bill James, if you cut Tim Raines in half, you'd have two players better than Jackie Bradley Jr. This is getting silly.
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