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Post by dmaineah on Jan 17, 2020 6:43:24 GMT -5
Can Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez & Perez each make 25+ starts this year? Should they be counted on to? And even if they do who is going to start the other 30+ games. Openers? Right now it looks like the SP depth is Velazquez, Reyes & Hart. Of course someone can be added to the roster during the season but who in the system will be ready? Will Houck get a chance? Will Johnson be back? Maybe someone from AA, Mata, Ward? The SP on the active roster has a history of being very injury prone & the depth doesn’t look to be strong unless some big strides are made.
I’d like to hear what everyone thinks about the starting pitching and specifically about the starting pitching depth this year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2020 7:20:31 GMT -5
You (conveniently) omitted Weber as starting depth. He's as capable of throwing 4 innings as is Velazquez, Reyes, or Hart.
And even with openers you still need a "reliever" who can come in and throw 4 or 5 innings. Using an opener does not mean you have a bullpen game. It means you simply start the "starter" or "bulk inning" guy in the 2nd or 3rd inning. You still have to have a guy who throws 4 or 5 innings. If not, you'll wear out your bullpen pretty damn fast. That's what would happen when Cora would have a "bullpen" game where he'd have about 6 guys filling 9 innings.
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Post by dmaineah on Jan 17, 2020 7:54:03 GMT -5
You (conveniently) omitted Weber as starting depth. He's as capable of throwing 4 innings as is Velazquez, Reyes, or Hart. And even with openers you still need a "reliever" who can come in and throw 4 or 5 innings. Using an opener does not mean you have a bullpen game. It means you simply start the "starter" or "bulk inning" guy in the 2nd or 3rd inning. You still have to have a guy who throws 4 or 5 innings. If not, you'll wear out your bullpen pretty damn fast. That's what would happen when Cora would have a "bullpen" game where he'd have about 6 guys filling 9 innings. I did not “conveniently omit” Weber as SP depth. I have him on the active roster already filling the long man, spot starter role. I only listed players who I believe will be in AAA starting & are currently on the roster.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 17, 2020 8:34:27 GMT -5
To me the question is can each of our 5 starters make 30 starts ? Dave Bush has a big job right now with regard to preparing the starters to do their jobs from the get go in 2020. The lagging preparedness of the starting 5 in 2019 set the tone for the season early and there was not a point at which the staff recovered in total. I understand that injuries were a factor but to degree could also be an outcome.
Assuming all starters stay healthy, 12-20 starts during the season from others is manageable. 30 + is a formula for mediocrity.
As far as depth, beyond Velazquez and Johnson who I think we have seen the best we are going to get from, Hart made 24 starts and threw over 150 innings last season and pretty maintained his performance when moving up to AAA. Seems prepared. 2nd 24 start season in a row actually.
Another option would be job share Houk/ Hart or Hernandez in a 5th starter slot. Bring a couple guys along by having them pitch every 5th game and if one begins to out perform the other he takes the role alone.
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Post by jimmydugan on Jan 17, 2020 12:34:57 GMT -5
I'm not going to speculate on the health of the SP, which is probably the biggest wild card this year for the team. And I hope that they continue searching for depth. But the 5 guys they have now pitched ~745 innings or close to 150 innings on average. They received 806 innings from their starters in total. And they were very careful with their staff to begin and end last season.
If they can get around 800 or 160 IP/each from the top 5 SP and 70 from Johnson/Velazquez/Weber/and whoever else they identified as candidates for spot starters/openers, that will give them 870 innings total. That would have been in the middle of the pack last year, which should work.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 17, 2020 12:49:47 GMT -5
It takes a certain level of skill to take a very reasonable concern about the Red Sox starting pitching depth (I don't think they have enough either), and frame it in such a ridiculous way. No, all five starters are not going to make 25 starts apiece. And if they do? Then it's probably a 100-win team again with that offense. Only two teams (Twins and Cubs) had five starters make 25 starts last year, and none had five that made 28. Having all five starters make 25 starts isn't the standard and it's not a fair expectation for the team's weakness. So, bravo?
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Post by manfred on Jan 17, 2020 13:00:18 GMT -5
How about: can TWO of them make 25 starts? ERod has been healthy so far in his career, so he seems like the safest bet. Can one more of them stay healthy all year? Cause I agree with James... if all do, team is gangbusters. I’d go further and say if 3 do, they are in better shape than I expect. Full seasons from ERod, Sale, and one other... we are in good shape. I’d take 28 starts from Sale and Erod.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 17, 2020 14:04:19 GMT -5
Over the last 4 seasons (2016-2019) Martin Perez has averaged 27 starts and 159 IP, so he's probably one of the safer bets to make 25+. Maybe he isn't the one we WANT to make the most starts, but as long as he's closer to his 2019 FIP of 4.66 then that's a pretty solid #4 or #5
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Post by orion09 on Jan 17, 2020 15:16:03 GMT -5
ERod has been healthy so far in his career, so he seems like the safest bet. ...We thinking of the same E-Rod?
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Post by orion09 on Jan 17, 2020 15:17:36 GMT -5
His arm has been healthy, if that’s what you meant, and hopefully he’s past the random lower body injuries.
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Post by p23w on Jan 17, 2020 17:27:30 GMT -5
Starts are mostly irrelevant. Quality IP and health in September matter more. I'd take 22 starts, 150 quality IP and a healthy Sale in September. Ditto foe Price. Problem is that those 50-70 regular season IP NOT pitched by Sale (or Price... or both) are not going to get this team into playoff contention come September. A solid year from Eovaldi and Erod will help and a good year from Porcello would have given the team a decent chance for the playoffs. I don't see it. Unless Bloom catches lightening in a bottle with several pitchers this team is going to watch the post season on TV. More and more the 2020 Red Sox remind me of "your Father's Red Sox". I am girding myself to be in complete denial if Mookie is dealt or not signed. Not since Fisk signed with the White Sox or Nomar was traded have I felt such foreboding. Then again, the Sox won the WS the year Nomar was shipped out so what the heck do I know.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 17, 2020 17:53:37 GMT -5
It's safe to say that the Red Sox will get 162 starts this season.
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Post by jimmydugan on Jan 17, 2020 17:55:51 GMT -5
Starts are mostly irrelevant. Quality IP and health in September matter more. I'd take 22 starts, 150 quality IP and a healthy Sale in September. Ditto foe Price. Problem is that those 50-70 regular season IP NOT pitched by Sale (or Price... or both) are not going to get this team into playoff contention come September. A solid year from Eovaldi and Erod will help and a good year from Porcello would have given the team a decent chance for the playoffs. I don't see it. Unless Bloom catches lightening in a bottle with several pitchers this team is going to watch the post season on TV. More and more the 2020 Red Sox remind me of "your Father's Red Sox". I am girding myself to be in complete denial if Mookie is dealt or not signed. Not since Fisk signed with the White Sox or Nomar was traded have I felt such foreboding. Then again, the Sox won the WS the year Nomar was shipped out so what the heck do I know.And how many of us would've put money on the 2013 Sox? You never know.
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Post by manfred on Jan 17, 2020 18:33:15 GMT -5
His arm has been healthy, if that’s what you meant, and hopefully he’s past the random lower body injuries. Good call. Yes, I was thinking arms, but I guess with his knee, he can go in the cross your fingers pool.
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