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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 23, 2020 8:43:17 GMT -5
Why is it hard for people to accept both teams could consider themselves winners? Sox win a World Series and Chicago builds a stronger roster for the future, actually the way trades should work out, win win. A lot of times there's a need to quantify these types of things, but sometimes that just doesn't work well. I mean, if you use numbers, ultimately the White Sox will get more WAR out of the trade, but is that really what it's all about? No, both teams had differing needs and both teams succeeded filling those needs and getting their desired outcome in this deal, and like you said, rarely are trades win-win, but this one was. It was a fair trade for both teams. Nobody was fleeced. Nobody will be left dissatisfied with the outcome. In a way, it's not that different from the thought provoking deal made 11 years earlier where the Sox dealt youngsters Hanley Ramirez and Anabal Sanchez to Florida for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. If you go by WAR, the Marlins did a lot better than the Red Sox, but were the Red Sox really unhappy with a deal that was a major factor in them winning the 2007 World Series? No, and the Marlins certainly did well in the deal.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 23, 2020 9:03:19 GMT -5
An even more extreme version of this would be the Anderson/Schilling for Boddicker deal. Schilling ended up being something close to a Hall of Famer... but in 1988 he had, shall we say, many of the personality traits that frustrate so many... but it was playing itself out as a headstrong minor leaguer being very difficult to coach. It took him five years and a couple more trades to put things together. Brady Anderson turned into a very solid regular who had one ridiculous season but was overall the sort of decent everyday type you're hoping to get in a trade like that. Boddicker was only there 2 1/2 years, so he didn't have anything close to the WAR of either of those guys, but he was a major contributor for two division winners that very likely do not win without him - he was a 2.5 WAR player in '88 when they won the AL East by one game, and a 5.9 WAR player in 1990 when they won by two.
(Also of note - the Red Sox got two comp picks when they lost Boddicker in free agency, one of whom was Scott Hatteburg).
--------
Anyway, Chris Sale has already been worth 15.1 bWAR for the Red Sox. The decision to extend him was sort of a high-risk/high-reward move that is looking a little scary right now. But the three years that they traded for? He's been among the half-dozen best pitchers in baseball and he was the ace of a team that won the World Series. Meanwhile, the White Sox got one All-Star level performer and another player who still has the upside of an impact player. Both teams got what they wanted!
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huskies15
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Post by huskies15 on Jan 23, 2020 10:30:36 GMT -5
Re-focusing on Sale's future and away from the trade that brought him here...
I know the big if is his health, but if he is indeed good to go I don't feel it is far fetched that he could provide significant value over the beginning of his contract. I'm assuming there will be some regression from the nearly 20% HR/FB rate (he'd been around 12% for the three years prior). His LOB% was 10% lower than his career norms.
Some of the spikes are attributed to some diminished skill/health but last year was such an outlier from his career that I have to assume a bit of regression takes him closer to what he has usually been in his career. The 6-7 WAR seasons are probably not returning but 4-5 WAR seasons should be attainable. That's basically what Greinke has been and hes being paid more than Sale.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 23, 2020 11:44:48 GMT -5
Curt Schilling is a HOF pitcher in my book and it's not even a debate. His regular numbers are HOF worthy, nevermind when you add in his post season numbers.
I don't blame them for trading him, but man it sucks we didn't get to see more of him. Still hope one Day we get Kopech back like Schilling. I loved that guy!
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Post by incandenza on Jan 23, 2020 11:46:12 GMT -5
Re-focusing on Sale's future and away from the trade that brought him here... I know the big if is his health, but if he is indeed good to go I don't feel it is far fetched that he could provide significant value over the beginning of his contract. I'm assuming there will be some regression from the nearly 20% HR/FB rate (he'd been around 12% for the three years prior). His LOB% was 10% lower than his career norms. Some of the spikes are attributed to some diminished skill/health but last year was such an outlier from his career that I have to assume a bit of regression takes him closer to what he has usually been in his career. The 6-7 WAR seasons are probably not returning but 4-5 WAR seasons should be attainable. That's basically what Greinke has been and hes being paid more than Sale. This I agree with. People seem to be factoring in a very high chance that he will pretty much break down, but I don't really see why that's so much more likely than it is for any other pitcher. And if he stays relatively healthy there is a very good chance that his contract turns out to be a steal. It's also pretty striking how many of the top pitchers are over 30, relative to position players. In 2019, 6 of the top 7 pitchers by fWAR were over 30. The top position player over 30, meanwhile, was DJ LeMahieu, at 18th.
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Chris Sale
Jan 23, 2020 11:54:51 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 23, 2020 11:54:51 GMT -5
Why is it hard for people to accept both teams could consider themselves winners? Sox win a World Series and Chicago builds a stronger roster for the future, actually the way trades should work out, win win. I think the Sox straight up won the deal, and I LOVED Kopech. Until he does something in the majors he's an injury prone guy who struggles with command. Moncada had a breakout performance, but his BABIP was very high last year and he still strikes out a ton. Either way, best case is Red Sox won the deal. Worst case, they draw. Even if both become HoF players. The Red Sox won a ring out of the deal. Nothing that happens thereafter can make this a bad trade.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 23, 2020 11:58:03 GMT -5
Re-focusing on Sale's future and away from the trade that brought him here... I know the big if is his health, but if he is indeed good to go I don't feel it is far fetched that he could provide significant value over the beginning of his contract. I'm assuming there will be some regression from the nearly 20% HR/FB rate (he'd been around 12% for the three years prior). His LOB% was 10% lower than his career norms. Some of the spikes are attributed to some diminished skill/health but last year was such an outlier from his career that I have to assume a bit of regression takes him closer to what he has usually been in his career. The 6-7 WAR seasons are probably not returning but 4-5 WAR seasons should be attainable. That's basically what Greinke has been and hes being paid more than Sale. This I agree with. People seem to be factoring in a very high chance that he will pretty much break down, but I don't really see why that's so much more likely than it is for any other pitcher. And if he stays relatively healthy there is a very good chance that his contract turns out to be a steal. It's also pretty striking how many of the top pitchers are over 30, relative to position players. In 2019, 6 of the top 7 pitchers by fWAR were over 30. The top position player over 30, meanwhile, was DJ LeMahieu, at 18th. I wouldn't bet my life that Sale isn't going to have injury issues that can derail him for a year or two of that contract, but I refuse to write him off as a sunk cost whose best days are in the rear view mirror. In his mediocre year, he still had a 17/0 K/BB game and had two immaculate innings. That's extreme power pitching at its best. It's still in there. He still has the capability of being an ace. It comes down to will he be healthy and if so will he be healthy enough for a full season to give them a season like he gave them in 2017 or at least the dominance he gave them in 2018. The quality that he had in 2018 is still there. Is the quantity he gave them in 2017 and before when he was with Chicago still there? That I'm less certain of. But writing him off as a bust of a contract makes very little sense to me. Yes, they could have waited and perhaps won that gamble, but he just as easily could have pitched very well and suddenly the price to keep him would have risen in years and dollars. I don't think the Sox could have known that the rabbit ball was going to be in use for 2019 and I'm sure that impacted his numbers somewhat. It wasn't all that. He was injured and he struggled at times. He missed his spots more often than I was used to seeing, so it's not all the ball and health, but he showed enough to make me think that it's still very much in there for him.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 23, 2020 12:01:20 GMT -5
Why is it hard for people to accept both teams could consider themselves winners? Sox win a World Series and Chicago builds a stronger roster for the future, actually the way trades should work out, win win. I think the Sox straight up won the deal, and I LOVED Kopech. Until he does something in the majors he's an injury prone guy who struggles with command. Moncada had a breakout performance, but his BABIP was very high last year and he still strikes out a ton. Either way, best case is Red Sox won the deal. Worst case, they draw. Even if both become HoF players. The Red Sox won a ring out of the deal. Nothing that happens thereafter can make this a bad trade. All of this true, although I'll add that I think the needle is still pointing upward for Moncada. I don't think he's a finished product. I think his Ks can still come down as he gains more experience. I'm not convinced that Kopech will throw enough strikes to be able to be a pitcher who can give them 200 innings. I mean if you're at 110 pitches by the 5th inning consistently, it's tough to be the ace of the staff. Of course if Kopech can harness his control, a Cy Young or two wouldn't be out of the question. At worse, he's a late inning high leverage reliever. The White Sox did very well in this deal, even if Diaz and Basabe don't amount to much, and Basabe still has a chance to be a useful player.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 23, 2020 12:22:35 GMT -5
Why is it hard for people to accept both teams could consider themselves winners? Sox win a World Series and Chicago builds a stronger roster for the future, actually the way trades should work out, win win. A lot of times there's a need to quantify these types of things, but sometimes that just doesn't work well. I mean, if you use numbers, ultimately the White Sox will get more WAR out of the trade, but is that really what it's all about? No, both teams had differing needs and both teams succeeded filling those needs and getting their desired outcome in this deal, and like you said, rarely are trades win-win, but this one was. It was a fair trade for both teams. Nobody was fleeced. Nobody will be left dissatisfied with the outcome. In a way, it's not that different from the thought provoking deal made 11 years earlier where the Sox dealt youngsters Hanley Ramirez and Anabal Sanchez to Florida for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. If you go by WAR, the Marlins did a lot better than the Red Sox, but were the Red Sox really unhappy with a deal that was a major factor in them winning the 2007 World Series? No, and the Marlins certainly did well in the deal. Exactly and as usual I keep it short and you go into much more detail in saying what I meant to convey, thank you.
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redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
Member is Online
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 23, 2020 12:26:33 GMT -5
A lot of times there's a need to quantify these types of things, but sometimes that just doesn't work well. I mean, if you use numbers, ultimately the White Sox will get more WAR out of the trade, but is that really what it's all about? No, both teams had differing needs and both teams succeeded filling those needs and getting their desired outcome in this deal, and like you said, rarely are trades win-win, but this one was. It was a fair trade for both teams. Nobody was fleeced. Nobody will be left dissatisfied with the outcome. In a way, it's not that different from the thought provoking deal made 11 years earlier where the Sox dealt youngsters Hanley Ramirez and Anabal Sanchez to Florida for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. If you go by WAR, the Marlins did a lot better than the Red Sox, but were the Red Sox really unhappy with a deal that was a major factor in them winning the 2007 World Series? No, and the Marlins certainly did well in the deal. Exactly and as usual I keep it short and you go into much more detail in saying what I meant to convey, thank you. Thank you. Getting to the point is not one of my best attributes as just about everybody here can attest to. It's a skill you have that I don't.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 23, 2020 12:27:28 GMT -5
Just have to bring up the best trade in Sox history where their is an absolute winner.
Heathclif Slocumb for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe, thank you very much Seattle!!!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 23, 2020 12:32:48 GMT -5
An even more extreme version of this would be the Anderson/Schilling for Boddicker deal. Schilling ended up being something close to a Hall of Famer... but in 1988 he had, shall we say, many of the personality traits that frustrate so many... but it was playing itself out as a headstrong minor leaguer being very difficult to coach. It took him five years and a couple more trades to put things together. Brady Anderson turned into a very solid regular who had one ridiculous season but was overall the sort of decent everyday type you're hoping to get in a trade like that. Boddicker was only there 2 1/2 years, so he didn't have anything close to the WAR of either of those guys, but he was a major contributor for two division winners that very likely do not win without him - he was a 2.5 WAR player in '88 when they won the AL East by one game, and a 5.9 WAR player in 1990 when they won by two. (Also of note - the Red Sox got two comp picks when they lost Boddicker in free agency, one of whom was Scott Hatteburg). -------- Anyway, Chris Sale has already been worth 15.1 bWAR for the Red Sox. The decision to extend him was sort of a high-risk/high-reward move that is looking a little scary right now. But the three years that they traded for? He's been among the half-dozen best pitchers in baseball and he was the ace of a team that won the World Series. Meanwhile, the White Sox got one All-Star level performer and another player who still has the upside of an impact player. Both teams got what they wanted! Schilling also credits Clemens for telling him he was wasting his talent.
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Chris Sale
Jan 28, 2020 11:17:47 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by manfred on Jan 28, 2020 11:17:47 GMT -5
It is heartening to see Steamer projecting a good year for Sale. Maybe not exactly peak, but if the projection pans out, he will be taking care of his end of the bargain.
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