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Post by natesp4 on Jul 17, 2020 17:59:00 GMT -5
I was staring at baseball reference today looking through the career stats of some guys and it got me thinking about how certain guys panned out vs the expectations we all had for them. Guys who were not busts but had varying levels of success like Bogaerts, JBJ, Barnes, Vasquez, Benintendi, Mookie, Holt, ERod, etc. Where would we classify their outcome so far in their career compared to their floor/baseline/ceiling? I feel like as prospects we analyze these guys like crazy, assigning grades to each of their skills but once they hit the majors we're pretty binary (satisfied/disappointed). I'd be curious see what everyone here would rate various players on the team (or off the team) in terms of a percentile. For example, in my opinion Travis Shaw is a guy who probably hit his 95th percentile projection.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 18, 2020 12:23:57 GMT -5
Well, it depends on what time you're comparing to, right?
Using Bogaerts as an example, in the 2012-13 offseason, we had an 8, 5-10 grade on him as the top prospect (equivalent on the scale we use now would be like a 6, 4-8 grade). The following August, we'd switched to our current system and had a 7, 5-8 grade on him, which might be the highest we've gone on someone. (In October 2011, we had an even older system and graded him an 8-10, which meant we were projecting him to be somewhere between an impact regular and a Hall of Famer, which was stupid as hell. Like we even had Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, and Kalish all graded as 8-9. Our grades were bad then.)
Betts, for example, changed even more. We ranked him 53rd after he signed (way too low, we just didn't know anything about him), he was 58th the following offseason, he was 10th and graded a 4, 2-6 in 2013-14, and that June he was #1 with a 6, 4-7. How you feel about how he did versus projections depends upon what point in time you want to slice from.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 18, 2020 15:50:31 GMT -5
I was staring at baseball reference today looking through the career stats of some guys and it got me thinking about how certain guys panned out vs the expectations we all had for them. Guys who were not busts but had varying levels of success like Bogaerts, JBJ, Barnes, Vasquez, Benintendi, Mookie, Holt, ERod, etc. Where would we classify their outcome so far in their career compared to their floor/baseline/ceiling? I feel like as prospects we analyze these guys like crazy, assigning grades to each of their skills but once they hit the majors we're pretty binary (satisfied/disappointed). I'd be curious see what everyone here would rate various players on the team (or off the team) in terms of a percentile. For example, in my opinion Travis Shaw is a guy who probably hit his 95th percentile projection. Okay I'll bite. I'm going off my memory, not looking things up and will go by what I remember as reasonable peaks. Bogaerts- 100%, yet you could make a case it could be slightly higher, yet as Chris pointed out he was a truly elite guy for years. JBJ- 75% more power, just not the high average guy he was in the minors Barnes- 70% not a starter, but a darn good reliever Vasquez- 100% heck maybe higher. I don't think many thought he'd hit that good. Benitendi- 60-75% - Been good but his ceiling was much higher Betts- 150%, heck maybe higher Holt- 90-100% - He's been a darn good player and wasn't even an elite guy with us. Maybe before we traded for him it was higher I don't know. ERod- 100% based on last season if he keeps that up. Travis Shaw- 200% to 300% I don't think anyone's 95% was Shaw realistically being that good. He's one of the biggest overachievers you'll ever see in my book. Don't hold me to these as I did it quick for fun. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 18, 2020 21:53:30 GMT -5
You might want to take a look at Shaw's 2019 season...
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 19, 2020 5:27:41 GMT -5
You might want to take a look at Shaw's 2019 season... It doesn't really matter to me if he does nothing going forward, he was still worth 10.5 bwar for four seasons and a two year peak of 7.7 bwar. That's a better stretch than Andrew Benintendi who was a crazy elite top prospect. Nevermind the whole switching to 3B and becoming above average. That's a better stretch than tons of top 100 guys. It really comes down to what you expected of him. For me his first two years were like 95% much better than I ever imagined, the next two were shocking. Likely magnified by a certain reliever that did nothing! |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2020 6:51:34 GMT -5
Yeah, that's fair. I can dig that.
Another big thing for Shaw was his seemingly out-of-nowhere move up the defensive spectrum to 3B. They gave him a little bit of run there in the minors, but honestly not a ton. Then suddenly he was basically their starting 3B in 2016. That doesn't really happen... ever. That'd be like Casas playing 1B for all but like 10 starts over the next couple years then shifting back to 3B in like 2023.
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