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3 up - 3 down - 3 just right
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2020 19:46:46 GMT -5
WE HAVEN'T PLAYED THIS GAME IN A WHILE. This is a strawpersons (lol,woke) survey of sorts. Pick 3 prospects that you think you are higher on than the collective, 3 lower than the collective and 3 that the collective has nailed.
For me:
3 up Duran, I think he has top 10 potential Groome, I am optimistic about a full recovery Rafaela, in Speier sources we trust.
3 down Chatham, there's not enough glove or speed to make up for zero power. Cannon, see Chatham except a little more power, less defense. Bello, considering age relative to development, reaching ceiling seems unlikely.
3 just right
Dalbec, I view him as Chavis plus. Ward, great strides last year. Murphy, deservedly climbed fast.
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Post by manfred on Aug 6, 2020 19:59:21 GMT -5
WE HAVEN'T PLAYED THIS GAME IN A WHILE. This is a strawpersons (lol,woke) survey of sorts. Pick 3 prospects that you think you are higher on than the collective, 3 lower than the collective and 3 that the collective has nailed. For me: 3 up Duran, I think he has top 10 potential Groome, I am optimistic about a full recovery Rafaela, in Speier sources we trust. 3 down Chatham, there's not enough glove or speed to make up for zero power. Cannon, see Chatham except a little more power, less defense. Bello, considering age relative to development, reaching ceiling seems unlikely. 3 just right Dalbec, I view him as Chavis plus. Ward, great strides last year. Murphy, deservedly climbed fast. I will go with ups as guys I’d put money on (with appropriate odds) to help at some point: Hart, Murphy, Aybar. Down, are guys people seem to think might _really_ help who I’d bet against: Downs, Dalbec, and Jordan. Right: Casas, Duran, Groome... three guys I think most likely to be better than short term help or utility or whatever.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 7, 2020 0:44:32 GMT -5
Dalbec is older than Chavis, and generally had higher K rates in the minors than Chavis, and I have never quite understood what there is to be excited about there. What is the reason to think he has more offensive upside than Chavis?
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 7, 2020 6:22:54 GMT -5
3 up; 3 I think will make it to the show and stick Mata Zeferjahn Shugart
3 down; 2 I think never reach their potential & 1 who if this was a regular year would have been rule 5 returned Song Feltman Arauz
3 just right; hopefully we see all 3 at some point this year Casas Downs Groome
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Post by chrisfromnc on Aug 7, 2020 10:08:46 GMT -5
I’ll play
Up 1) Aldo Ramirez. Except for Groome, he was the prospect I most wanted to follow in 2020. Not that I’ve seen him, but read his write up here. He’s got a chance to be the best pitcher that is currently in the system. Anybody wants on his bandwagon, come onboard with me. 2) Groome. Like Philsbosoxfan, I think he’s going to be healthy and eventually very good. 3) Connor Wong. It feels like he should be ranked higher, but again, I haven’t seen him play. Love that he’s versatile enough to catch and play infield.
Down 1) Casas. I don’t know, I guess I’m scared that he’ll be Middlebooks so I refuse to get too excited. 2) Nick Yorke. I was critical of drafting him. I will be thrilled to be wrong. 3) Don’t have a third. Would be making stuff up just to post.
Right
1) Noah Song. I believe he will be as good as we’d hoped. He will be the definition of a low mileage arm. 2) Houck. I think he’ll provide some decent value to the big club. I’d like to see him pitch as soon as possible in Boston. 3) Jarred Duran. You can’t coach speed. Fast guys are fun to watch.
Final thought...I hadn’t realized Feltman has fallen to 28. I hope he finds himself on the mound. It seemed like the upside was so high for a guy who is barely top 30 in the system now.
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Post by manfred on Aug 7, 2020 10:27:15 GMT -5
I’ll play Up 1) Aldo Ramirez. Except for Groome, he was the prospect I most wanted to follow in 2020. Not that I’ve seen him, but read his write up here. He’s got a chance to be the best pitcher that is currently in the system. Anybody wants on his bandwagon, come onboard with me. 2) Groome. Like Philsbosoxfan, I think he’s going to be healthy and eventually very good. 3) Connor Wong. It feels like he should be ranked higher, but again, I haven’t seen him play. Love that he’s versatile enough to catch and play infield. Down 1) Casas. I don’t know, I guess I’m scared that he’ll be Middlebooks so I refuse to get too excited. 2) Nick Yorke. I was critical of drafting him. I will be thrilled to be wrong. 3) Don’t have a third. Would be making stuff up just to post. Right 1) Noah Song. I believe he will be as good as we’d hoped. He will be the definition of a low mileage arm. 2) Houck. I think he’ll provide some decent value to the big club. I’d like to see him pitch as soon as possible in Boston. 3) Jarred Duran. You can’t coach speed. Fast guys are fun to watch. Final thought...I hadn’t realized Feldman has fallen to 28. I hope he finds himself on the mound. It seemed like the upside was so high for a guy who is barely top 30 in the system now. Feltman was one of my first thoughts for “up.” Figured a guy drafted as a reliever who had two plus pitches must be able to get over early issues and be at least as good as some of the middle inning guys we have. But looking again at the SP report, I got scared off by the loss of velocity. I usually figure little guys have less time at extra high velocity (pace Billy Wagner), so he may already be diminished. Hopefully it is more mechanical than physical.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2020 13:35:13 GMT -5
Dalbec is older than Chavis, and generally had higher K rates in the minors than Chavis, and I have never quite understood what there is to be excited about there. What is the reason to think he has more offensive upside than Chavis? Roughly similarish hit tool, better power, much better defense, much better arm, much better injury history. Dalbec brought his strikeout percentage down last year to about where Chavis had been, around 20-25%. Presuming that's real and not a one-year statistical blip, there really wouldn't be anything that Chavis does better than Dalbec, and the latter is a far superior defender (although I'm not sure he'll be the above-average 3B he looked like he might be in 2018). He walks more, has true plus power compared to Chavis's above-average, maybe 65 power. Doesn't have Chavis' injury history. This is to say that these are pluses to Dalbec, not necessarily negatives to Chavis. But yeah, Dalbec bringing his K rate down from like 35% to 25% last year was absolutely huge.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 7, 2020 15:02:18 GMT -5
I think you need to point out Chavis did everything two years earlier even with all those injuries. AA at age 21, Dalbec age 23.
Dalbec drops his strikeout rate at age 24 in AA and AAA, Chavis is going into his 2nd major league season at age 24. Dalbec at age 25 hasn't even made it yet.
Like imagine Chavis spending over a 100 games at AA this year, I bet he'd be unreal.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 7, 2020 20:06:00 GMT -5
I think you need to point out Chavis did everything two years earlier even with all those injuries. AA at age 21, Dalbec age 23. Dalbec drops his strikeout rate at age 24 in AA and AAA, Chavis is going into his 2nd major league season at age 24. Dalbec at age 25 hasn't even made it yet. Like imagine Chavis spending over a 100 games at AA this year, I bet he'd be unreal. That depend on how you look at it. Chavis was from high school, Dalbec college. Chavis came into the system two years before Dalbec so in terms of service time and level, Dalbec is a year ahead of Chavis. Both ways are generally what you would expect college vs high school. Nothing to look at here. One other factor not mentioned by Chris, neither is likely to be the Sox third baseman, first base is the key and Dalbec has a huge height advantage there. Otherwise, Chris' post is my thought to a tee.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2020 0:48:28 GMT -5
I think you need to point out Chavis did everything two years earlier even with all those injuries. AA at age 21, Dalbec age 23. Dalbec drops his strikeout rate at age 24 in AA and AAA, Chavis is going into his 2nd major league season at age 24. Dalbec at age 25 hasn't even made it yet. Like imagine Chavis spending over a 100 games at AA this year, I bet he'd be unreal. That depend on how you look at it. Chavis was from high school, Dalbec college. Chavis came into the system two years before Dalbec so in terms of service time and level, Dalbec is a year ahead of Chavis. Both ways are generally what you would expect college vs high school. Nothing to look at here. One other factor not mentioned by Chris, neither is likely to be the Sox third baseman, first base is the key and Dalbec has a huge height advantage there. Otherwise, Chris' post is my thought to a tee. He had three years of College experience, which is much better than the low minors. The fact he's taken so long is because he was a mess, basically huge power with massive strikeout and contact issues. Issues much worse than Chavis at the same age and age is crazy important I don't think you can debate that. Every player is different, so maybe it doesn't matter. Yet he wasn't young for AA last year when he improved his strikeout rates, basically league average. That is crazy rare for a top 100 guy who didn't deal with injuries. So you should worry about that. Try and spin it all you want, yet it's not close to ideal. Chavis was docked because his D was bad at third, Dalbec was seen as above average. So him at first hurts him and size is one of the most overrated things ever. It's why Chavis playing 2B was huge for him, the bar at 1B is crazy high. Chavis overall was better with strikeouts and we see what has happened with him. Those same issues could be there with Dalbec, heck they could be worse. We'll see, yet it makes sense to worry if he's going to be playing 1B. He wouldn't be a top 100 on anyone's list if he was 1B only and his big improvement was only one year. I'm not making a prediction either, just playing devil's advocate.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 8, 2020 1:08:38 GMT -5
I think you need to point out Chavis did everything two years earlier even with all those injuries. AA at age 21, Dalbec age 23. Dalbec drops his strikeout rate at age 24 in AA and AAA, Chavis is going into his 2nd major league season at age 24. Dalbec at age 25 hasn't even made it yet. Like imagine Chavis spending over a 100 games at AA this year, I bet he'd be unreal. May be a moot point. To me Chavis is one of the most likely pieces Bloom will trade. His skills are easily replaceable within the existing roster (i.e. Dalbec and/or Casas) and has more years of service time making him the more expensive option.
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Post by manfred on Aug 8, 2020 8:18:29 GMT -5
I think you need to point out Chavis did everything two years earlier even with all those injuries. AA at age 21, Dalbec age 23. Dalbec drops his strikeout rate at age 24 in AA and AAA, Chavis is going into his 2nd major league season at age 24. Dalbec at age 25 hasn't even made it yet. Like imagine Chavis spending over a 100 games at AA this year, I bet he'd be unreal. May be a moot point. To me Chavis is one of the most likely pieces Bloom will trade. His skills are easily replaceable within the existing roster (i.e. Dalbec and/or Casas) and has more years of service time making him the more expensive option. I’d be fine trading Chavis for a decent return, but this conversation underscores why I don’t feel confident in that. Teams will have all the same questions we do... how much would we give for him if the roles were reversed? I’d really like to see him get more time at 2B, where he’d have so much more value.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 8, 2020 8:45:44 GMT -5
May be a moot point. To me Chavis is one of the most likely pieces Bloom will trade. His skills are easily replaceable within the existing roster (i.e. Dalbec and/or Casas) and has more years of service time making him the more expensive option. I’d be fine trading Chavis for a decent return, but this conversation underscores why I don’t feel confident in that. Teams will have all the same questions we do... how much would we give for him if the roles were reversed? I’d really like to see him get more time at 2B, where he’d have so much more value. Presumably, teams would be trading for a second baseman.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 8, 2020 16:45:21 GMT -5
I think you need to point out Chavis did everything two years earlier even with all those injuries. AA at age 21, Dalbec age 23. Dalbec drops his strikeout rate at age 24 in AA and AAA, Chavis is going into his 2nd major league season at age 24. Dalbec at age 25 hasn't even made it yet. Like imagine Chavis spending over a 100 games at AA this year, I bet he'd be unreal. May be a moot point. To me Chavis is one of the most likely pieces Bloom will trade. His skills are easily replaceable within the existing roster (i.e. Dalbec and/or Casas) and has more years of service time making him the more expensive option. He's the only one that can play 2nd though. Which might be a mute point if Downs is great, yet he seems to have that super sub role that Dalbec and Casas don't also. If you're worried about service time with Chavis, I don't know what to say. I don't see some long-term rebuild going on with this team. I'm not against trading him for the right price, yet if that's the goal they seem to be going about it all wrong. Playing him at 1B not 2B and only starting him against LHs doesn't scream build up value to trade him.
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