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Post by carl4sox on Jul 22, 2023 15:45:10 GMT -5
I love Nick, and hope he gets extended.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 25, 2023 20:55:46 GMT -5
I love Nick, and hope he gets extended. He’s been so good this last month. Like the guy I thought he could be. Hope he keeps it up.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 21, 2023 13:46:11 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2023 1:41:04 GMT -5
Teaser trailer for a long post in progress ...
June 28 was when Pivetta started throwing his sweeper, and in his next appearance he re-added his cutter that had been his new pitch from the year before.
There were 64 pitchers who faced 330+ hitters from then (6/28) until season's end. The xwOBA leader board has nine guys and then a gap before number 10.
The nine elite performances:
.257 Specner Strider .258 Pablo Lopez .265 Gerrit Cole .267 Nick Pivetta
.269 Zack Wheeler .271 Corbin Burns .271 Max Scherzer .272 Zach Eflin .274 Tyler Glasnow
Decent set of comps, eh?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 25, 2023 8:25:20 GMT -5
And even if his play in the second half was over his head, his baseline traditional final season statistics were very solid! He had a 4.04 ERA and 11.5 K:9. He's at nearly 500 innings with the Red Sox and has a 4.22 FIP. So yeah, even if he can't fully sustain that second half run, he's basically an excellent #4. I get that the inconsistency is always frustrating, but he's got a much higher floor than the usual guy with his upside.
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 25, 2023 8:39:14 GMT -5
I like him in the bullpen because he’s proven at this point that his stuff plays up and he’s a total monster there, and someone is probably going to get hurt or pitch badly so he’ll probably get some starts anyway. But the more I see about just how good he was after adding the sweeper, the more open I am to penciling him into the rotation.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2023 22:52:55 GMT -5
Teaser trailers ... In Pivetta's Have-Sweeper era (hereafter Neo-Pivetta, with Matrix reference not originally intended but certainly welcome) ...
He threw the sweeper just 9.0% of the time, but it ended a PA 13.1%, which is 46% more. Clearly he was saving it as an out pitch. And he allowed a .158 xwOBA and .141 wOBA. He can likely throw it more often and end up coming out ahead. The effectiveness will drop as he shows it more, but it will be more than offset by using it more.
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My project to get an objective measure of fastball stuff (velo plus movement) needs to be rebooted, but I did discover that a) xwOBA correlates much more strongly with stuff than wOBA does, and b) Raw Velo correlates better than Perceived Velo ... if that is true for other pitches, there's something wrong with that stat.
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The MLB ave for xWOBA is .319. Neo-Pivetta:
51% .292 FB 21% .295 Curve 14% .278 Cutter 09% .158 Sweeper
05% .177 Slider
I may be forced to see how many guys can match that.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
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Post by radiohix on Oct 26, 2023 5:45:29 GMT -5
Every time I see that this thread got a new comment, I think to myself self “Did they finally extended him?” ☺️
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 26, 2023 8:02:14 GMT -5
And even if his play in the second half was over his head, his baseline traditional final season statistics were very solid! He had a 4.04 ERA and 11.5 K:9. He's at nearly 500 innings with the Red Sox and has a 4.22 FIP. So yeah, even if he can't fully sustain that second half run, he's basically an excellent #4. I get that the inconsistency is always frustrating, but he's got a much higher floor than the usual guy with his upside. If he didn’t have the inconsistency he’d be at the top of the rotation imo- like you said there’s just more upside there than what you get out of the typical backend SP profile. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if he were to put it together for a full season and get Cy Young votes. But I guess that’s the frustrating thing about him- he probably won’t but the talent is there for it
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 26, 2023 11:16:40 GMT -5
Did his stuff really "play up in the bullpen" though?
For a good amount of his time in the "bullpen," he was taking a turn in the rotation, just following an opener, and in fact had some of his best outings on that role. To me, a guy who throws innings 3-8 instead of 1-6 isn't "in the bullpen," really, the same way that Brennan Bernardino isn't "in the rotation" because he's getting innings 1 and 2. And I don't mean this as just a semantic point, because if he's throwing 6 innings of relief, the "stuff" shouldn't be better than if he's throwing the first 6 innings. It's not like he's airing it out for 1 inning at a time and finds 2 mph.
The key is figuring out what led to his success and determining if that can reliably be replicated in either a true starting role or, for whatever reason, in a bulk relief role.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 26, 2023 11:23:44 GMT -5
Did his stuff really "play up in the bullpen" though? For a good amount of his time in the "bullpen," he was taking a turn in the rotation, just following an opener, and in fact had some of his best outings on that role. To me, a guy who throws innings 3-8 instead of 1-6 isn't "in the bullpen," really, the same way that Brennan Bernardino isn't "in the rotation" because he's getting innings 1 and 2. And I don't mean this as just a semantic point, because if he's throwing 6 innings of relief, the "stuff" shouldn't be better than if he's throwing the first 6 innings. It's not like he's airing it out for 1 inning at a time and finds 2 mph. The key is figuring out what led to his success and determining if that can reliably be replicated in either a true starting role or, for whatever reason, in a bulk relief role. Moreover, whatever was working for him in the "bullpen" carried over when he came back as a normal starter in September. In 5 starts to end the year he had a 2.37 ERA and ace-like peripherals. Maybe they've already figured out what led to his success...
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 26, 2023 11:39:07 GMT -5
Did his stuff really "play up in the bullpen" though? For a good amount of his time in the "bullpen," he was taking a turn in the rotation, just following an opener, and in fact had some of his best outings on that role. To me, a guy who throws innings 3-8 instead of 1-6 isn't "in the bullpen," really, the same way that Brennan Bernardino isn't "in the rotation" because he's getting innings 1 and 2. And I don't mean this as just a semantic point, because if he's throwing 6 innings of relief, the "stuff" shouldn't be better than if he's throwing the first 6 innings. It's not like he's airing it out for 1 inning at a time and finds 2 mph. The key is figuring out what led to his success and determining if that can reliably be replicated in either a true starting role or, for whatever reason, in a bulk relief role. Isn't this what the Opener/Bulk concept was built around? The opener faces the top of the order (presumed better hitters) and the bulker comes in and starts with the bottom of the order thereby facing the weaker hitters more often than the top of the order and making the overall appearance easier.
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Post by terriblehondo on Oct 26, 2023 11:46:56 GMT -5
I have always liked Nick and thought it was a great trade. I thought he had the chance to be a really good pitcher but he hasn't taken that step. He shows flashes for a time when you see how good he can be but then you get terrible stretches also. Maybe Breslow has the key to make him more consistent. Either way Nick always competes and answers the bell and that is valuable IMO.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 26, 2023 12:00:00 GMT -5
Did his stuff really "play up in the bullpen" though? For a good amount of his time in the "bullpen," he was taking a turn in the rotation, just following an opener, and in fact had some of his best outings on that role. To me, a guy who throws innings 3-8 instead of 1-6 isn't "in the bullpen," really, the same way that Brennan Bernardino isn't "in the rotation" because he's getting innings 1 and 2. And I don't mean this as just a semantic point, because if he's throwing 6 innings of relief, the "stuff" shouldn't be better than if he's throwing the first 6 innings. It's not like he's airing it out for 1 inning at a time and finds 2 mph. The key is figuring out what led to his success and determining if that can reliably be replicated in either a true starting role or, for whatever reason, in a bulk relief role. Isn't this what the Opener/Bulk concept was built around? The opener faces the top of the order (presumed better hitters) and the bulker comes in and starts with the bottom of the order thereby facing the weaker hitters more often than the top of the order and making the overall appearance easier. The concept isn't that the stuff is better though. The main idea is that you have a "starter," but your opener takes the first time through the top of the order, meaning your "starter" faces those hitters one less time through the order. So if it's a guy that can face, say, hitters 6-9 three times, but not hitters 1-5, you don't need to pull him as early. (opener) 1 2 3 4 5 (bulk reliever) 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 (bullpen)
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
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Post by radiohix on Oct 26, 2023 12:04:04 GMT -5
I’ll share this again because it’s a very good breakdown of the new Nick Pivetta and why I think he’ll keep being good next year.
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 26, 2023 12:22:25 GMT -5
Did his stuff really "play up in the bullpen" though? For a good amount of his time in the "bullpen," he was taking a turn in the rotation, just following an opener, and in fact had some of his best outings on that role. To me, a guy who throws innings 3-8 instead of 1-6 isn't "in the bullpen," really, the same way that Brennan Bernardino isn't "in the rotation" because he's getting innings 1 and 2. And I don't mean this as just a semantic point, because if he's throwing 6 innings of relief, the "stuff" shouldn't be better than if he's throwing the first 6 innings. It's not like he's airing it out for 1 inning at a time and finds 2 mph. The key is figuring out what led to his success and determining if that can reliably be replicated in either a true starting role or, for whatever reason, in a bulk relief role. His fastball velocity noticeably spiked in the period between getting demoted to the bullpen and promoted (if you want to call it that) to the piggyback guy. Based on his velo graph on FG, he’s ~96-98 in a short relief role and closer to 93-95 in bulk/starting roles. My understanding of the mechanics of “stuff playing up in the pen” is that guys can throw with more effort and don’t suffer times through the order penalties, so I think it’s pretty clear that it does. The sweeper really seems to have helped him get through the lineup more, not to mention it just being a very effective pitch in general. After that he moved to that piggyback role and didn’t look back. That’s what I like about him in the pen though, with him, Houck, and Winck you have three guys who can turn a lineup over pretty consistently, but also have that switch for a one-inning outing. I think Pivetta and Crawford are pretty interchangeable in general, but I just feel Crawford was a bit more consistent in the rotation. The team presumably has better data than I do to make that determination, though. But honestly, [TBD]/Bello/Sale/Pivetta/Crawford sounds like a much better rotation than it feels like the Sox have had in recent years. I’m finding myself less convinced than I was even a month ago that two starters are an absolute need this offseason.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 26, 2023 14:35:29 GMT -5
What does an extension for Pivetta look like that one would feel good about?
If you can get him to accept 4/5 starter money given his inconsistent results, you'd probably want to explore that with his reasonable upside.
Like would he be looking for Freeland/Alcantara money (5/65, 5/56)? Steven Matz (4/44), maybe? I feel like at Wacha-level (4/26, though its a weird contract and more akin to like 3/38 from the team's perspective) he'd probably hold out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2023 14:46:07 GMT -5
An insanely detailed game log. xwOBA for each outing is adjusted for the opponents offensive xwOBA vs. RHP in this time frame. The first outing is when he introduces the sweeper, and the second is when he reintroduces his cutter. He had spent the off-season switching from a knuckle- to regular curve, with the eventual result being extra velo (76.9 to 82.0) and less movement (20.1" to 18.8:), which is a positive trade-off, and maybe he shelved the cutter while he was working on that. The right two columns sum the stretches of different results, at two levels of detail. The mediocre and then bad stretch very much look like the product of overwork. Date DR Opp Role PA j-xwOBA 6/28/2023 4 Mia Blk 13 .164 7/2/2023 3 Tor Rel 16 .325 .253 7/7/2023 4 Oak Blk 20 .194 7/17/2023 9 Oak Blk 20 .099 7/22/2023 4 NYM Rel 3 .250 7/25/2023 2 Atl Blk 18 .174 7/31/2023 5 Sea SP 26 .171 .163 .186 8/5/2023 4 Tor Blk 19 .349 8/9/2023 3 KC SP 21 .351 8/15/2023 5 Wsn SP 21 .264 8/20/2023 4 NYY Blk 19 .364 8/23/2023 2 Hou Rel 3 .208 .326 8/25/2023 1 LAD Rel 12 .451 9/2/2023 7 KC Rel 11 .354 9/6/2023 3 TB SP 22 .401 .403 .353 9/12/2023 5 NYY SP 22 .214 9/17/2023 4 Tor SP 24 .237 9/23/2023 5 CWS SP 24 .307 9/29/2023 5 Bal SP 23 .253 .254
The bulk thing was because he had struggled his whole Sox career in the first. But he had a .152 xwOBA (unadjusted) in the first inning across this whole report, so he no longer needs to coupled with an opener.
The overall adjusted xwOBA allowed is .268.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 26, 2023 14:54:55 GMT -5
What does an extension for Pivetta look like that one would feel good about?If you can get him to accept 4/5 starter money given his inconsistent results, you'd probably want to explore that with his reasonable upside. Like would he be looking for Freeland/Alcantara money (5/65, 5/56)? Steven Matz (4/44), maybe? I feel like at Wacha-level (4/26, though its a weird contract and more akin to like 3/38 from the team's perspective) he'd probably hold out. This is my thoughts as well, even more so what would an extension look like that both sides could feel good about? Pivetta's up an down nature makes it hard to really peg a good value in my mind. Is his 2nd half this season a mirage or is it sustainable at any level? If the team thinks it is then they should probably throw him a pretty good offer maybe along those lines of the Freeland/Alcantara or Steven Matz #s. If Pivetta thinks it is sustainable and believes in himself would he even accept that offer? If he goes out and has a great 2024 it isn't hard to see him cashing in for more than that type of money next offseason. Lots of question to answer in regards to Pivetta an extension that a smarter man than I needs to figure out. Good thing the new POBO just so happened to be categorized as the "smartest man in baseball" at one point.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 26, 2023 15:02:11 GMT -5
As a Starter 2023: Pivetta: 4.41 FIP
Total innings 2nd + 3rd time through the order 2023 (To counter that Pivetta was essentially a starter the whole time
Pivetta: 72 Innings.
Career as Starter Pivetta: 4.44 FIP.
Posted these in the rotation thread, color me someone as not a buyer here at all for the soon to be 31 year old
He’s proven over and over gain what he is and a very small sample Size of something is not going to change my mind. He can gladly prove me wrong but I wouldn’t bet on it
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 27, 2023 12:27:08 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 27, 2023 14:06:25 GMT -5
As a Starter 2023: Pivetta: 4.41 FIP Total innings 2nd + 3rd time through the order 2023 (To counter that Pivetta was essentially a starter the whole time Pivetta: 72 Innings. Career as Starter Pivetta: 4.44 FIP. Posted these in the rotation thread, color me someone as not a buyer here at all for the soon to be 31 year old He’s proven over and over gain what he is and a very small sample Size of something is not going to change my mind. He can gladly prove me wrong but I wouldn’t bet on it A guy who can work 180 innings with a 4.50 ERA is quite valuable, especially for a team like the Red Sox that doesn't have a reliable innings muncher. Only three teams (Colorado, Oakland, and San Francisco) had starters that threw fewer innings than Boston.
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Post by bosox904 on Oct 27, 2023 16:26:15 GMT -5
As a Starter 2023: Pivetta: 4.41 FIP Total innings 2nd + 3rd time through the order 2023 (To counter that Pivetta was essentially a starter the whole time Pivetta: 72 Innings. Career as Starter Pivetta: 4.44 FIP. Posted these in the rotation thread, color me someone as not a buyer here at all for the soon to be 31 year old He’s proven over and over gain what he is and a very small sample Size of something is not going to change my mind. He can gladly prove me wrong but I wouldn’t bet on it A guy who can work 180 innings with a 4.50 ERA is quite valuable, especially for a team like the Red Sox that doesn't have a reliable innings muncher. Only three teams (Colorado, Oakland, and San Francisco) had starters that threw fewer innings than Boston. Yep, that was basically Wakefield. Wake averaged 177 innings a season with a 4 43 ERA and 106 ERA+ with the Sox. Pivetta has averaged 159 innings(without doing math, I'm sure it's close based on modern pitching useage), a 4 39 ERA and 102 ERA+. And Pivettas FIP is a half a run better.
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Post by manfred on Oct 27, 2023 16:27:05 GMT -5
As a Starter 2023: Pivetta: 4.41 FIP Total innings 2nd + 3rd time through the order 2023 (To counter that Pivetta was essentially a starter the whole time Pivetta: 72 Innings. Career as Starter Pivetta: 4.44 FIP. Posted these in the rotation thread, color me someone as not a buyer here at all for the soon to be 31 year old He’s proven over and over gain what he is and a very small sample Size of something is not going to change my mind. He can gladly prove me wrong but I wouldn’t bet on it A guy who can work 180 innings with a 4.50 ERA is quite valuable, especially for a team like the Red Sox that doesn't have a reliable innings muncher. Only three teams (Colorado, Oakland, and San Francisco) had starters that threw fewer innings than Boston. If they don’t keep Pivetta, they need to replace him. And then you are adding even further pressure and expense to the FA buying for pitchers. No one else on the staff screams workhorse at this point. They can’t kill the pen next year like they did this year. If he gives them even 160+ innings of average pitching, it is huge.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 28, 2023 23:37:57 GMT -5
Nick Pavetta at minimum wage is an A level trade chip as is Verdugo. It's the money position we haven't seen in a while.
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