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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2020 17:02:32 GMT -5
I mean, the churn started when Bloom came in. There are SIXTEEN players on the 40-man roster who were put there before Bloom was hired last fall, not even a year ago. SIXTEEN.
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 2, 2020 17:04:45 GMT -5
I've seen varying reports on the site about Song and his commitment. Do any of you have a solid idea of when he might be released from that and become available for assignment? I saw an article that said he can apply for the deferment again next year but after being turned down this year, it was less likely to be granted. I thought this was a huge loss this year considering the work he could have done in Pawtucket and how Groome seems to be progressing there. |
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Post by manfred on Sept 2, 2020 17:07:50 GMT -5
I've seen varying reports on the site about Song and his commitment. Do any of you have a solid idea of when he might be released from that and become available for assignment? I saw an article that said he can apply for the deferment again next year but after being turned down this year, it was less likely to be granted. I thought this was a huge loss this year considering the work he could have done in Pawtucket and how Groome seems to be progressing there. What is his minimum commitment if he does not get a deferment? |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 2, 2020 21:45:38 GMT -5
Seems like some of the PTBNL around the league are being announced. The one for the Taijuan Walker deal has been made official Something I've been wondering, if a team puts a PTBNL on a 60 man roster can they then announce him ? Might not apply to people not in the USA now. This just happened- Jose Salvador was added to the Reds player pool then traded over to the Angels to complete the Goodwin deal. So it seems like there’s a chance we won’t necessarily have to wait until the offseason |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2020 1:24:01 GMT -5
40-man is currently at 39. + Pedroia, ERod, Sale (they all have to go back on the 40 over the offseason. There's no offseason injured list.) - JBJ, McHugh I do not project that JDM will opt out. So here's what you're working with, plus the 7 they need to add: C: Vazquez, Plawecki, WongCIF: Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, PottsMIF: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Chatham, Arauz, Peraza OF: Benintendi, Martinez, Wilson, Verdugo, RosarioUT: Lin, Munoz SP: Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Weber, Hart, Perez, Godley, Pivetta, Groome, Houck, Mata, SeaboldRP: Barnes, Walden, Brasier, Brewer, Taylor, Hernandez, Aybar, Brice, Springs, Valdez, Stock, Triggs, Leyer Swing: Mazza, Hall, Covey, Kickham So need at least 8 DFA or non-tenders. Seems clear most is coming from that stack o' pitching. So I'll guess cuts from the following list: Peraza (non-tender), Hart, Springs, Hall, Kickham, Mazza, Triggs, Covey, Walden. Could see one of Munoz or Lin gone although Munoz has an option. All that said, my guess is that trades might work some of this out. And they're going to need to add a starting CF whether it's JBJ, Duran, or someone else; potentially a bench OF if they're not comfortable having Lin fill that role; at least one SP and at least one RP. There is going to be a TON of churn this offseason, likely in the hopes that guys clear and stay, like Gonsalves and Shawaryn recently. My take on a final winter roster ... Guys who might be traded can be assumed to be replaced with an equivalent guy filling the same role.
I think you need a RHH 4th outfielder if you plan to contend, someone like Pillar.
I also think you want a LHH 1B as both an occasional platoon partner for Dalbec and a plan B in case he struggles and needs to go down. (If he could also play 2B occasionally -- a not unheard-of combo -- that would be a bonus). So that's a roster spot. If there's no DH in the NL next year, then an interesting guy named Mitch Moreland should be available in trade.
MI: I think Peraza will be non-tendered and resigned as the backup MI at less than he'd make in arbitration, and given a chance to share 2B with Chavis. They liked him last winter and this year's sample is unlikely to change that. Or they'll swap him out for a new shinier toy. Or they keep Lin rather than trying to pass him through waivers. But in any case, that's one roster spot.
Arauz is exactly as expected: promising tools, but the skills need work in AAA. And while it would be nice to keep Munoz because of the option, you don't mourn if you try to pass him through waivers and he's claimed. So that's one more spot.
Is there any reason why Pedroia can't be DFA'd, if he acknowledges he can't play again? His salary would still count against the tax limit. I don't see the logic of a CBA rule that would force a team to use a winter roster spot every year on a guy who has suffered a career-ending injury while in the middle of a long-term contract. If they could do that, it would open up a roster spot. And while it's true that they liked Wilson well enough last year to protect him, that was in part because they had tons of room. So that's a second possible opening.
A year has passed without Chatham getting an opportunity to demonstrate that his last 148 PA last year weren't a fluke, which is what needs to be true if he's going to be an MLB backup. But given that Arauz is the guy you might be grooming for that role, maybe you trade him for a lottery ticket, so that's a third possible opening.
Let's count up the position players:
C (3): Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong
CIF (4): Devers, Dalbec, Acquisition, Potts
MIF (4-6): [Pedroia], Bogaerts, Chavis, Peraza or alternative, Arauz, [Chatham]
OF (6-7): Benintendi, Martinez, Verdugo, CF Acquisition, 4th OF Acquisition, Rosario, [Wilson]
That's 17 to 20. They'll leave a spot open for the Rule 5, so that's 19 to 22 pitchers. Who are definite? I agree with adding a starter and reliever.
SP (10): Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta, Acquisition; Seabold, Houck, Mata, Groome.
RP: (6) Barnes, Taylor, Valdez, Acquisition; Brasier and Brice at present, although that could change
SW: (2) Hernandez, Weber
So that would leave 1 to 4 spots for Aybar and the dozen plates of lasagna that have been hurled against the wall, or this winter's versions of same. * are out of options.
Godley*, Mazza, Brewer, Kickham*, Springs, Stock, Leyer, Triggs, Walden, Covey, Hall, Hart. Obviously you hope a bunch can get through waivers.
I think Godley is a keeper, as an ongoing resurrection project who has shown promise (every other appearance, in fact). I like what I've seen of Mazza, Stock, and Leyer. Covey had good results in his brief shot, so I'm not sure why he hasn't gotten another.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 3, 2020 6:28:05 GMT -5
I mean, the churn started when Bloom came in. There are SIXTEEN players on the 40-man roster who were put there before Bloom was hired last fall, not even a year ago. SIXTEEN. Good pick up I did not realize that the number was 16. I thought the churn you were referring to was for this winter into next season. I can see where the rule 5 thread and the winter roster make over could start now. The projected finish for this season shows that we will have a great opportunity to pick up even more churn. Does JBJ get resigned? Does MM come back? Does Bloom go after Springer? 25 to 30 available ranked young pitchers who are out of options . rule 5 pickups. Wow lots of stuff to talk about. Who has Bloom decided is the core to build around? How well does sale and erod do next year? Do they keep NE and does he remain a starter? Lots and Lots of topics to discuss. But, back to the trade deadline. I think with what he had to work with and what he got back Bloom did very well. I think a B is a decent grade. No home runs but a couple off the wall fenway doubles. I look forward to some lively discussions. |
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 3, 2020 6:46:49 GMT -5
40-man is currently at 39. + Pedroia, ERod, Sale (they all have to go back on the 40 over the offseason. There's no offseason injured list.) - JBJ, McHugh I do not project that JDM will opt out. So here's what you're working with, plus the 7 they need to add: C: Vazquez, Plawecki, WongCIF: Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, PottsMIF: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Chatham, Arauz, Peraza OF: Benintendi, Martinez, Wilson, Verdugo, RosarioUT: Lin, Munoz SP: Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Weber, Hart, Perez, Godley, Pivetta, Groome, Houck, Mata, SeaboldRP: Barnes, Walden, Brasier, Brewer, Taylor, Hernandez, Aybar, Brice, Springs, Valdez, Stock, Triggs, Leyer Swing: Mazza, Hall, Covey, Kickham So need at least 8 DFA or non-tenders. Seems clear most is coming from that stack o' pitching. So I'll guess cuts from the following list: Peraza (non-tender), Hart, Springs, Hall, Kickham, Mazza, Triggs, Covey, Walden. Could see one of Munoz or Lin gone although Munoz has an option. All that said, my guess is that trades might work some of this out. And they're going to need to add a starting CF whether it's JBJ, Duran, or someone else; potentially a bench OF if they're not comfortable having Lin fill that role; at least one SP and at least one RP. There is going to be a TON of churn this offseason, likely in the hopes that guys clear and stay, like Gonsalves and Shawaryn recently. My take on a final winter roster ... Guys who might be traded can be assumed to be replaced with an equivalent guy filling the same role.
I think you need a RHH 4th outfielder if you plan to contend, someone like Pillar.
I also think you want a LHH 1B as both an occasional platoon partner for Dalbec and a plan B in case he struggles and needs to go down. (If he could also play 2B occasionally -- a not unheard-of combo -- that would be a bonus). So that's a roster spot. If there's no DH in the NL next year, then an interesting guy named Mitch Moreland should be available in trade.
MI: I think Peraza will be non-tendered and resigned as the backup MI at less than he'd make in arbitration, and given a chance to share 2B with Chavis. They liked him last winter and this year's sample is unlikely to change that. Or they'll swap him out for a new shinier toy. Or they keep Lin rather than trying to pass him through waivers. But in any case, that's one roster spot.
Arauz is exactly as expected: promising tools, but the skills need work in AAA. And while it would be nice to keep Munoz because of the option, you don't mourn if you try to pass him through waivers and he's claimed. So that's one more spot.
Is there any reason why Pedroia can't be DFA'd, if he acknowledges he can't play again? His salary would still count against the tax limit. I don't see the logic of a CBA rule that would force a team to use a winter roster spot every year on a guy who has suffered a career-ending injury while in the middle of a long-term contract. If they could do that, it would open up a roster spot. And while it's true that they liked Wilson well enough last year to protect him, that was in part because they had tons of room. So that's a second possible opening.
A year has passed without Chatham getting an opportunity to demonstrate that his last 148 PA last year weren't a fluke, which is what needs to be true if he's going to be an MLB backup. But given that Arauz is the guy you might be grooming for that role, maybe you trade him for a lottery ticket, so that's a third possible opening.
Let's count up the position players:
C (3): Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong
CIF (4): Devers, Dalbec, Acquisition, Potts
MIF (4-6): [Pedroia], Bogaerts, Chavis, Peraza or alternative, Arauz, [Chatham]
OF (6-7): Benintendi, Martinez, Verdugo, CF Acquisition, 4th OF Acquisition, Rosario, [Wilson]
That's 17 to 20. They'll leave a spot open for the Rule 5, so that's 19 to 22 pitchers. Who are definite? I agree with adding a starter and reliever.
SP (10): Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta, Acquisition; Seabold, Houck, Mata, Groome.
RP: (6) Barnes, Taylor, Valdez, Acquisition; Brasier and Brice at present, although that could change
SW: (2) Hernandez, Weber
So that would leave 1 to 4 spots for Aybar and the dozen plates of lasagna that have been hurled against the wall, or this winter's versions of same. * are out of options.
Godley*, Mazza, Brewer, Kickham*, Springs, Stock, Leyer, Triggs, Walden, Covey, Hall, Hart. Obviously you hope a bunch can get through waivers.
I think Godley is a keeper, as an ongoing resurrection project who has shown promise (every other appearance, in fact). I like what I've seen of Mazza, Stock, and Leyer. Covey had good results in his brief shot, so I'm not sure why he hasn't gotten another.
Busy off season. I like a lot of what you have in your post. Like I said before I do not think the sox will have a problem fitting all the new pickups on the 40 man. I can see either Dalbec or chavis going. Power, but high swing and miss rates. I think we will know more at the end of the season when we see how they have progressed. Not quite as in love with the pitchers as you seem to be. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2020 9:18:48 GMT -5
40-man is currently at 39. + Pedroia, ERod, Sale (they all have to go back on the 40 over the offseason. There's no offseason injured list.) - JBJ, McHugh I do not project that JDM will opt out. So here's what you're working with, plus the 7 they need to add: C: Vazquez, Plawecki, WongCIF: Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, PottsMIF: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Chatham, Arauz, Peraza OF: Benintendi, Martinez, Wilson, Verdugo, RosarioUT: Lin, Munoz SP: Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Weber, Hart, Perez, Godley, Pivetta, Groome, Houck, Mata, SeaboldRP: Barnes, Walden, Brasier, Brewer, Taylor, Hernandez, Aybar, Brice, Springs, Valdez, Stock, Triggs, Leyer Swing: Mazza, Hall, Covey, Kickham So need at least 8 DFA or non-tenders. Seems clear most is coming from that stack o' pitching. So I'll guess cuts from the following list: Peraza (non-tender), Hart, Springs, Hall, Kickham, Mazza, Triggs, Covey, Walden. Could see one of Munoz or Lin gone although Munoz has an option. All that said, my guess is that trades might work some of this out. And they're going to need to add a starting CF whether it's JBJ, Duran, or someone else; potentially a bench OF if they're not comfortable having Lin fill that role; at least one SP and at least one RP. There is going to be a TON of churn this offseason, likely in the hopes that guys clear and stay, like Gonsalves and Shawaryn recently. My take on a final winter roster ... Guys who might be traded can be assumed to be replaced with an equivalent guy filling the same role.
I think you need a RHH 4th outfielder if you plan to contend, someone like Pillar.
I also think you want a LHH 1B as both an occasional platoon partner for Dalbec and a plan B in case he struggles and needs to go down. (If he could also play 2B occasionally -- a not unheard-of combo -- that would be a bonus). So that's a roster spot. If there's no DH in the NL next year, then an interesting guy named Mitch Moreland should be available in trade. MI: I think Peraza will be non-tendered and resigned as the backup MI at less than he'd make in arbitration, and given a chance to share 2B with Chavis. They liked him last winter and this year's sample is unlikely to change that. Or they'll swap him out for a new shinier toy. Or they keep Lin rather than trying to pass him through waivers. But in any case, that's one roster spot.
Arauz is exactly as expected: promising tools, but the skills need work in AAA. And while it would be nice to keep Munoz because of the option, you don't mourn if you try to pass him through waivers and he's claimed. So that's one more spot.
Is there any reason why Pedroia can't be DFA'd, if he acknowledges he can't play again? His salary would still count against the tax limit. I don't see the logic of a CBA rule that would force a team to use a winter roster spot every year on a guy who has suffered a career-ending injury while in the middle of a long-term contract. If they could do that, it would open up a roster spot. And while it's true that they liked Wilson well enough last year to protect him, that was in part because they had tons of room. So that's a second possible opening.
A year has passed without Chatham getting an opportunity to demonstrate that his last 148 PA last year weren't a fluke, which is what needs to be true if he's going to be an MLB backup. But given that Arauz is the guy you might be grooming for that role, maybe you trade him for a lottery ticket, so that's a third possible opening.
Let's count up the position players: C (3): Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong
CIF (4): Devers, Dalbec, Acquisition, Potts
MIF (4-6): [Pedroia], Bogaerts, Chavis, Peraza or alternative, Arauz, [Chatham]
OF (6-7): Benintendi, Martinez, Verdugo, CF Acquisition, 4th OF Acquisition, Rosario, [Wilson]
That's 17 to 20. They'll leave a spot open for the Rule 5, so that's 19 to 22 pitchers. Who are definite? I agree with adding a starter and reliever.
SP (10): Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta, Acquisition; Seabold, Houck, Mata, Groome.
RP: (6) Barnes, Taylor, Valdez, Acquisition; Brasier and Brice at present, although that could change
SW: (2) Hernandez, Weber So that would leave 1 to 4 spots for Aybar and the dozen plates of lasagna that have been hurled against the wall, or this winter's versions of same. * are out of options.
Godley*, Mazza, Brewer, Kickham*, Springs, Stock, Leyer, Triggs, Walden, Covey, Hall, Hart. Obviously you hope a bunch can get through waivers. I think Godley is a keeper, as an ongoing resurrection project who has shown promise (every other appearance, in fact). I like what I've seen of Mazza, Stock, and Leyer. Covey had good results in his brief shot, so I'm not sure why he hasn't gotten another.
100% agree on the RH 4th outfielder. No Brewer ? Also with a high pick, it makes sense to keep a slot open for Rule 5. I'm a proponent of dedicating the 26th slot every year to that but especially this year. NM, you addressed it but I 100% agree there too. RE: Pedroia, this can't be a precedent. There must be similar situations, Fielder's neck ? |
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 3, 2020 9:36:16 GMT -5
I mean, the churn started when Bloom came in. There are SIXTEEN players on the 40-man roster who were put there before Bloom was hired last fall, not even a year ago. SIXTEEN. That's a shocking number. Thanks for the research, very interesting! |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2020 9:56:37 GMT -5
Regarding the off season, for as much as $$ were a factor at the trade deadline, $$ are likely to be a bigger factor this off season except that it will switch from a sellers market to a buyers market. I am not talking about taking on albatross contracts here, I am talking about taking over reasonable contracts with non superstar players from teams that are looking to cut payroll. I believe there will be a ton of those.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 3, 2020 13:25:50 GMT -5
I'd also expect a massive amount of Arb two/three guys to get non-tendered which their salaries won't match the free agent market. It's going to be the wild wild west this off-season. Bloom might have been in a tight spot his first year, yet he's going to have a great opportunity in his second year.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 3, 2020 13:34:25 GMT -5
CB should assign someone to scour rosters for players going into the last year or two of bad contracts. When they see a team with a contract like that - particularly a financially struggling team - they should seek deals in which we take a contract and walk away with a prospect. That's where I'd look to spend money during the coming off-season.
And I'd start by trying to revive the Wil Myers trade that reportedly would have gotten us the young C, Campuasano.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 3, 2020 13:47:46 GMT -5
CB should assign someone to scour rosters for players going into the last year or two of bad contracts. When they see a team with a contract like that - particularly a financially struggling team - they should seek deals in which we take a contract and walk away with a prospect. That's where I'd look to spend money during the coming off-season. And I'd start by trying to revive the Wil Myers trade that reportedly would have gotten us the young C, Campuasano. My gut feeling is that the Padres don't want to trade Campusano. I think I read that Cleveland tried to pry him loose in the Clevenger deal and that didn't happen. I'd be surprised if they don't see him as a not-so-distant future cornerstone. I really think the Myers and Campusano for cash ship has sailed. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2020 13:55:39 GMT -5
I mean, the churn started when Bloom came in. There are SIXTEEN players on the 40-man roster who were put there before Bloom was hired last fall, not even a year ago. SIXTEEN. That's a shocking number. Thanks for the research, very interesting! To go a little deeper, it's 18 if you include Sale and E-Rod, and 23 if you include the five guys who were added from within the system to protect them from Rule 5. But that's still 19 acqiusitions.
But there's more. Breaking it down, he has acquired 5 position players on the current roster, 1 traded away (Pillar), 1 sent back to the Training Site (Lucroy), 3 at the site who will be added to the 40-man (Wong, Potts, Rosario), 1 who will be later (Downs), 1 who won't be this year but is a prospect (Pereda), and 3 others with MLB experience (Puello, Arroyo, Bandy).
On the pitching side, he's acquired 10 guys on the current MLB roster, 1 who was traded away (Osich), 1 on the 40-man who will be recalled before year's end (Pivetta), 1 who'll be added at year's end (Seabold), 2 who were here and are now at the site (Hall, Covey), 1 who was briefly on the 40-man (Gonsalves), and two other guys who won't be protected on the 40-man but who are prospects (Blair, Simpson).
Out of 60 guys (including Sale and E-Rod), he has acquired 31, plus there's Pillar and Osich. At least 30 of those have been on, or will be on, an MLB 40-man roster, and 24 of them have MLB experience.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2020 14:23:36 GMT -5
With all those additions, the focus will likely change now. Here's why:
Looking at 2022, a possible lineup
Duran
Verdugo
Xander
Casas
Devers
JDM
Downs
CVaz
Benintendi
Possible starters
Sale
ERod
Eovaldi
Groome
Mata
Houck
Darwinzon
Seabold
Pivetta
We also have decent bench and reliever candidates.
That's a potential World Series team. My guess, he will focus on tweaking that and has a lot of time to do just that. We might take on some one year contracts to make the team at least reasonable in 2021.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 3, 2020 15:44:02 GMT -5
With all those additions, the focus will likely change now. Here's why: Looking at 2022, a possible lineup Duran Verdugo Xander Casas Devers JDM Downs CVaz Benintendi Possible starters Sale ERod Eovaldi Groome Mata Houck Darwinzon Seabold Pivetta We also have decent bench and reliever candidates. That's a potential World Series team. My guess, he will focus on tweaking that and has a lot of time to do just that. We might take on some one year contracts to make the team at least reasonable in 2021. I don't really see a potential World Series team there. Not sure what to expect from Benintendi or Vazquez by then or even JDM. And that pitching staff isn't really World Series caliber - particularly if Sale isn't dominant - especiallyy toward the end of the year. And that's assuming that Pivetta becomes a viable major league pitcher. Honestly, I do the same kind of projecting you're doing as far as penciling down names, but I think we can both agree that there will be a lot of names on that list you have above that we never even anticipated. I think that it's likely that a number of the guys you have listed will wind up traded between now and then. I expect a dizzying amount of transactions by 2022. Chaim will obtain guys who you might think are part of the future but then he'll see a better deal and turn around and trade them away. I'm not saying that he's DiPoto but I anticipate he'll operate the way his TB FO did, and I guess there might be a high priced player or two in there. I could see a Marcel Ozuna out in LF with Benintendi traded or something like that. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 3, 2020 16:47:13 GMT -5
I just want to point out ERod is a free agent after 2021. Seen a lot of talk about him 2022 rotations. While that is certainly possible, it's also possible he's traded at the deadline next year if we aren't doing well and wants a mega deal. He's a guy if he's pitching like 2019 ERod next year could bring back a massive deal. Especially if you're willing to pay his salary.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2020 16:52:26 GMT -5
With all those additions, the focus will likely change now. Here's why: Looking at 2022, a possible lineup Duran Verdugo Xander Casas Devers JDM Downs CVaz Benintendi Possible starters Sale ERod Eovaldi Groome Mata Houck Darwinzon Seabold Pivetta We also have decent bench and reliever candidates. That's a potential World Series team. My guess, he will focus on tweaking that and has a lot of time to do just that. We might take on some one year contracts to make the team at least reasonable in 2021.The CFer should be a 1-year deal, ideally with a team option, and it should be a guy with some upside. You're looking for someone to trade at the deadline to make room for Duran.
Dalbec's job is to hit well enough over the next year (minus a few days) to get traded to a team that needs a 3B, where he'll have much more value. At that point, Downs should be ready at 2B, and Chavis can play 1B until Casas is ready in May of 2021.
The RHH 4th outfielder is a long-term need and they might look for a young veteran who is in an org with lots of depth and can spare him.
Speaking of which, I still hope we'll see Puello. I figure they brought up Munoz first to take a look at him, since he can be optioned back down, whereas Puello has to stay here once he's selected.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2020 20:36:18 GMT -5
With all those additions, the focus will likely change now. Here's why: Looking at 2022, a possible lineup Duran Verdugo Xander Casas Devers JDM Downs CVaz Benintendi Possible starters Sale ERod Eovaldi Groome Mata Houck Darwinzon Seabold Pivetta We also have decent bench and reliever candidates. That's a potential World Series team. My guess, he will focus on tweaking that and has a lot of time to do just that. We might take on some one year contracts to make the team at least reasonable in 2021. I don't really see a potential World Series team there. Not sure what to expect from Benintendi or Vazquez by then or even JDM. And that pitching staff isn't really World Series caliber - particularly if Sale isn't dominant - especiallyy toward the end of the year. And that's assuming that Pivetta becomes a viable major league pitcher. Honestly, I do the same kind of projecting you're doing as far as penciling down names, but I think we can both agree that there will be a lot of names on that list you have above that we never even anticipated. I think that it's likely that a number of the guys you have listed will wind up traded between now and then. I expect a dizzying amount of transactions by 2022. Chaim will obtain guys who you might think are part of the future but then he'll see a better deal and turn around and trade them away. I'm not saying that he's DiPoto but I anticipate he'll operate the way his TB FO did, and I guess there might be a high priced player or two in there. I could see a Marcel Ozuna out in LF with Benintendi traded or something like that. We basically agree but we are just looking at a different range of outcomes. Where we disagree the most is the starting pitching. Recent Groome looks like what we hoped for when we drafted him. His changeup is decent and he's commanding and mixing his pitches well. Mata as well, he's commanding much better than last year. Houck's cutter is now a decent pitch and he's ditched his changeup. He's still a bottom rotation guy but his floor is now higher. Seabold looks like a mid rotation guy right now. The wildcards here are Eovaldi, Darwinzon and Pivetta but Pivetta is further from it than the other two. ERod I believe they will extend rather than trade now that the tax will be reset and Sale is likely to be a #2 or better. As always, YMMV. ADD: I am reluctant to type this because it will be misinterpreted but I will anyways. A perspective on my current top 5 is Casas, Duran, Groome, Mata, Downs which also somewhat explains my 2022 logic. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 3, 2020 22:45:24 GMT -5
I don't really see a potential World Series team there. Not sure what to expect from Benintendi or Vazquez by then or even JDM. And that pitching staff isn't really World Series caliber - particularly if Sale isn't dominant - especiallyy toward the end of the year. And that's assuming that Pivetta becomes a viable major league pitcher. Honestly, I do the same kind of projecting you're doing as far as penciling down names, but I think we can both agree that there will be a lot of names on that list you have above that we never even anticipated. I think that it's likely that a number of the guys you have listed will wind up traded between now and then. I expect a dizzying amount of transactions by 2022. Chaim will obtain guys who you might think are part of the future but then he'll see a better deal and turn around and trade them away. I'm not saying that he's DiPoto but I anticipate he'll operate the way his TB FO did, and I guess there might be a high priced player or two in there. I could see a Marcel Ozuna out in LF with Benintendi traded or something like that. We basically agree but we are just looking at a different range of outcomes. Where we disagree the most is the starting pitching. Recent Groome looks like what we hoped for when we drafted him. His changeup is decent and he's commanding and mixing his pitches well. Mata as well, he's commanding much better than last year. Houck's cutter is now a decent pitch and he's ditched his changeup. He's still a bottom rotation guy but his floor is now higher. Seabold looks like a mid rotation guy right now. The wildcards here are Eovaldi, Darwinzon and Pivetta but Pivetta is further from it than the other two. ERod I believe they will extend rather than trade now that the tax will be reset and Sale is likely to be a #2 or better. As always, YMMV. ADD: I am reluctant to type this because it will be misinterpreted but I will anyways. A perspective on my current top 5 is Casas, Duran, Groome, Mata, Downs which also somewhat explains my 2022 logic. Until Houck or Groome pitch well in the minors it's hard for me to project them going forward in a successful manner. I mean, I can see Houck becoming a decent setup man type who can dominate righties but get eaten up by lefties. I think Groome is the one guy capable of being a #3 starter or better, but we have yet to see him pitch well in the minors - frankly we've hardly seen him pitch at all. I think Seabold is probably more of a #4. I can see how if he gets his HRs under control Pivetta can succeed, but given how HRs are still flying out of ballparks, I don't know if he can make that happen. This isn't a 24 year old kid we're talking about. Too many question marks with the pitchers for me to be comfortable. Honestly at this point, I'm still not sure what to make of Mata. I am sold on Casas being legit and I do think Downs will be a productive regular, a guy who'll end the merry-go-round at 2b. I do think we agree that they've barely scratched the surface of what Bloom will have on the team by 2022. There will be plenty of other pitchers to evaluate. I'm hoping Kumar is one of them. Haha! |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 3, 2020 23:19:16 GMT -5
With all those additions, the focus will likely change now. Here's why: Looking at 2022, a possible lineup Duran Verdugo Xander Casas Devers JDM Downs CVaz Benintendi Possible starters Sale ERod Eovaldi Groome Mata Houck Darwinzon Seabold Pivetta We also have decent bench and reliever candidates. That's a potential World Series team. My guess, he will focus on tweaking that and has a lot of time to do just that. We might take on some one year contracts to make the team at least reasonable in 2021. 2022 for all that, though? That would be asking an awful lof of a bunch of guys who would be in their first or second year in the majors; even if they all pan out (pretty unlikely!) at least some of Casas, Duran, Downs, Mata, Houck, and Seabold will probably take a couple years to settle in. On the other hand, you're (intentionally, I assume) not projecting any free agent acquisitions here, and what these guys seem to promise is a lot more depth for filling out the roster behind the stars than Dombrowski ever bothered to fill in. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2020 23:49:00 GMT -5
With all those additions, the focus will likely change now. Here's why: Looking at 2022, a possible lineup Duran Verdugo Xander Casas Devers JDM Downs CVaz Benintendi Possible starters Sale ERod Eovaldi Groome Mata Houck Darwinzon Seabold Pivetta We also have decent bench and reliever candidates. That's a potential World Series team. My guess, he will focus on tweaking that and has a lot of time to do just that. We might take on some one year contracts to make the team at least reasonable in 2021. 2022 for all that, though? That would be asking an awful lof of a bunch of guys who would be in their first or second year in the majors; even if they all pan out (pretty unlikely!) at least some of Casas, Duran, Downs, Mata, Houck, and Seabold will probably take a couple years to settle in. On the other hand, you're (intentionally, I assume) not projecting any free agent acquisitions here, and what these guys seem to promise is a lot more depth for filling out the roster behind the stars than Dombrowski ever bothered to fill in. That's what I meant by tweaking. I do think that trades are more likely than free agents though. When you have money to use, there would be less competition and I don't mean taking on bad contracts to get a prospect, I mean taking on fair contracts for fair dollars for a lower grade prospect. I am using that as a starting point. One other note though, throughout baseball, players are launching their careers younger and faster than ever before and that's not just the superstars and not just this year. The gap between minors and majors is shrinking. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 4, 2020 1:29:16 GMT -5
2022 for all that, though? That would be asking an awful lof of a bunch of guys who would be in their first or second year in the majors; even if they all pan out (pretty unlikely!) at least some of Casas, Duran, Downs, Mata, Houck, and Seabold will probably take a couple years to settle in. On the other hand, you're (intentionally, I assume) not projecting any free agent acquisitions here, and what these guys seem to promise is a lot more depth for filling out the roster behind the stars than Dombrowski ever bothered to fill in. That's what I meant by tweaking. I do think that trades are more likely than free agents though. When you have money to use, there would be less competition and I don't mean taking on bad contracts to get a prospect, I mean taking on fair contracts for fair dollars for a lower grade prospect. I am using that as a starting point. One other note though, throughout baseball, players are launching their careers younger and faster than ever before and that's not just the superstars and not just this year. The gap between minors and majors is shrinking. So we're trading prospects for fair contracts or getting fair contracts and a minor prospect for doing it? Do you have an example of what exactly you envision? A guy like Pham? What do you mean by players launching careers younger and faster? You mean teams calling up young guys quicker? |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 4, 2020 2:08:55 GMT -5
That's what I meant by tweaking. I do think that trades are more likely than free agents though. When you have money to use, there would be less competition and I don't mean taking on bad contracts to get a prospect, I mean taking on fair contracts for fair dollars for a lower grade prospect. I am using that as a starting point. One other note though, throughout baseball, players are launching their careers younger and faster than ever before and that's not just the superstars and not just this year. The gap between minors and majors is shrinking. So we're trading prospects for fair contracts or getting fair contracts and a minor prospect for doing it? Do you have an example of what exactly you envision? A guy like Pham? What do you mean by players launching careers younger and faster? You mean teams calling up young guys quicker? Not a Pham, no long term contract. For part A, more guys that already have longer contracts at a fair fairly break even price. Say a guy that looks like he's going to generate about 2 WAR but cost $14m and has 3 or 4 more years on his contract. I don't mean a Wil Meyers here and I am not talking about significant gain or loss of prospects either. I think that small and medium financed teams are going to look to contract this year and willing to part with players just to get out of obligations. For the same reason that $$ made the trade deadline a sellers market, it will make the offseason a buyers market. I think across baseball players are generally faster tracked to the upper levels before coming into major league baseball and those players are making an immediate splash. It's not just the Acunas, Tatis and Soto's, it's also the Cronenworths and lower ranked first timers holding their own, not struggling like you would expect. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 4, 2020 8:23:05 GMT -5
JJ Cooper@jjcoop36
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7m
We are 43 days into the season. There have been 164 players who have made their MLB debuts this year. That's an average of 3.8 debuts a day.
Josh Norris@jno rris427
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5m
97 away from tying the amount we had last year.
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