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2020-21 offseason national rankings
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 6, 2020 10:41:43 GMT -5
Casas kind of reminds me of Freddie Freeman.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 12, 2020 9:27:30 GMT -5
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Nov 12, 2020 14:48:49 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Alex Speier's BA chat today is open for non subscribers and if not does anyone have any interesting details he may have shared?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 12, 2020 18:37:07 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Alex Speier's BA chat today is open for non subscribers and if not does anyone have any interesting details he may have shared? I just read the whole thing. Most useful bit of info was that Luis Perales is at Dominican instructs.
Lots of his answers are good explanations for stuff we understand here, e.g., Duran's ETA, why they might sign Bradley for 2 years anyway, Bloom's overall strategy ... so I'll just do specific prospect tidbits.
Good reports on Nick Northcut's performance in instructional league; probably a make-or-break shot at low-A given his years in the system.
No surprise if Ockimey gets a shot this year, would take enthusiastic aim at the Monster.
Noah Song's in the middle of flight school, so even if the new administration rules in his favor when he petitions in May, he might "have to wait a lot longer."
Lots of buzz on Juan Chacon from instructs.
Some observers had Wong and Seabold much higher than others, and in general there was less consensus for the guys they traded for.
Long, interesting explanation of why Thad Ward was named "best control" even though he he's had a high walk rate.
Bonaci "looks more like a quality big leaguer than a star, but someone whose versatility can make him valuable."
"Jeremy Wu-Yelland, the team's fourth-rounder, evidently was nasty in instructs."
Asked who just missed the top 10 ... it looks like his top 12 will be the same as SP's.
Third guy who stood out in instructs was Chris Murphy.
Potential breakouts: "international prospects such as Perales, Chacon, and Chih-Jung Liu (his velocity was more mid- than upper-90s in instructs, however), or little-known pitchers such as Brendan Cellucci or A.J. Politi."
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ematz1423
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Member is Online
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 12, 2020 18:55:41 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Alex Speier's BA chat today is open for non subscribers and if not does anyone have any interesting details he may have shared? I just read the whole thing. Most useful bit of info was that Luis Perales is at Dominican instructs.
Lots of his answers are good explanations for stuff we understand here, e.g., Duran's ETA, why they might sign Bradley for 2 years anyway, Bloom's overall strategy ... so I'll just do specific prospect tidbits.
Good reports on Nick Northcut's performance in instructional league; probably a make-or-break shot at low-A given his years in the system.
No surprise if Ockimey gets a shot this year, would take enthusiastic aim at the Monster.
Noah Song's in the middle of flight school, so even if the new administration rules in his favor when he petitions in May, he might "have to wait a lot longer."
Lots of buzz on Juan Chacon from instructs.
Some observers had Wong and Seabold much higher than others, and in general there was less consensus for the guys they traded for.
Long, interesting explanation of why Thad Ward was named "best control" even though he he's had a high walk rate.
Bonaci "looks more like a quality big leaguer than a star, but someone whose versatility can make him valuable."
"Jeremy Wu-Yelland, the team's fourth-rounder, evidently was nasty in instructs."
Asked who just missed the top 10 ... it looks like his top 12 will be the same as SP's.
Third guy who stood out in instructs was Chris Murphy.
Potential breakouts: "international prospects such as Perales, Chacon, and Chih-Jung Liu (his velocity was more mid- than upper-90s in instructs, however), or little-known pitchers such as Brendan Cellucci or A.J. Politi."
That comment on Song stinks to hear as a red sox fan. Hes 23 and having to wait a "a lot longer" doesn't seem to bode well for his development as a pitcher but I'll be rooting for him more so than maybe any prospect I've ever rooted for due to his service to the country.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 12, 2020 20:28:34 GMT -5
Most useful bit of info was that Luis Perales is at Dominican instructs. Dude I posted this in the Instructs thread days ago. Lol Granted, I'd edited an older post. Probably should've made it a new one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2020 2:36:22 GMT -5
Most useful bit of info was that Luis Perales is at Dominican instructs. Dude I posted this in the Instructs thread days ago. Lol Granted, I'd edited an older post. Probably should've made it a new one. Yeah, I missed it! Alex guessed at first that this was the case, then confirmed it a bit later ... did he check this thread?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2020 9:25:51 GMT -5
I'm sure he texted someone at the Sox.
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Post by texs31 on Nov 13, 2020 12:29:48 GMT -5
BP just released their Os top prospect list (after posting Arizona and Atlamta). Sinve they are obviously going alphabetically, Sox sb Mon or Tue.
Not sure if their Prospect Team is what it used to be but it's still a list that I keep am eye on.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2020 12:56:16 GMT -5
I look forward to seeing if they rank anyone who becomes a minor league free agent and goes unsigned this year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 13, 2020 14:04:12 GMT -5
I'm going to offer a plus and a minus on the BA list. The details are very good, though a lot of that is available right here on SoxProspects. As an example, their take on Ward gives the narrative on how the Sox moved to make him a starter, and how he's worked to move into that role. There's the details on the pitch mix and how he's expanding that. All good. Then there's this statement at the end Now, I understand why they might feel an obligation to do that, but I mentally discard upon reading. There is literally no knowing at this stage what his future is. It's also jarring given the context of three likely swing-and-miss options, velocity which has ticked up to the mid 90s, and two more potential offerings on the way. Give me a break, and he certainly deserves one. Given the way BA and other prospect sites are typically all over the map on early player projections, I put much of The Future projections in the same class as eight ball and ouija board stuff. It's too early to tell if, let alone where, he'll fit into a starting pitching role for the Red Sox.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2020 14:26:58 GMT -5
I'm confused. Are you saying that they shouldn't include a projection?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 13, 2020 15:38:59 GMT -5
I'm confused. Are you saying that they shouldn't include a projection? I'm saying that any statement about what that potential is, is premature. Just my thinking, but it's much too early for any of that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2020 15:55:02 GMT -5
I'm confused. Are you saying that they shouldn't include a projection? I'm saying that any statement about what that potential is, is premature. Just my thinking, but it's much too early for any of that. That's literally the point of, like, all of this though. Projection is what a prospect ranking is based on. I've got to be missing something here.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 13, 2020 17:02:55 GMT -5
At this stage they could just as easily have said he has a range of mid-rotation potential to spot starter/long reliever. What they did say is just too targeted. Again that's just from my perspective.
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Post by borisman on Nov 13, 2020 17:12:45 GMT -5
It’ll be weird having Song in top 10 because it looks like he’ll be out again next year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2020 19:01:07 GMT -5
At this stage they could just as easily have said he has a range of mid-rotation potential to spot starter/long reliever. What they did say is just too targeted. Again that's just from my perspective. I think ceiling / floor statements are much more useful, and probably all that should be given for guys who haven't seen AA. Alex did just that for Casas in the Globe today: all-star potential, but if he falls short of that a bit he's just another good player.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 13, 2020 23:28:48 GMT -5
That was my point. If a player has what looks to be a good skillset but he's a a few levels removed from MLB, then a wider range of possible outcomes seems more appropriate. It may be a bit early to put a cap on the potential.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2020 6:33:11 GMT -5
I just read the whole thing. Most useful bit of info was that Luis Perales is at Dominican instructs. Lots of his answers are good explanations for stuff we understand here, e.g., Duran's ETA, why they might sign Bradley for 2 years anyway, Bloom's overall strategy ... so I'll just do specific prospect tidbits. Good reports on Nick Northcut's performance in instructional league; probably a make-or-break shot at low-A given his years in the system. No surprise if Ockimey gets a shot this year, would take enthusiastic aim at the Monster. Noah Song's in the middle of flight school, so even if the new administration rules in his favor when he petitions in May, he might "have to wait a lot longer." Lots of buzz on Juan Chacon from instructs. Some observers had Wong and Seabold much higher than others, and in general there was less consensus for the guys they traded for. Long, interesting explanation of why Thad Ward was named "best control" even though he he's had a high walk rate. Bonaci "looks more like a quality big leaguer than a star, but someone whose versatility can make him valuable." "Jeremy Wu-Yelland, the team's fourth-rounder, evidently was nasty in instructs." Asked who just missed the top 10 ... it looks like his top 12 will be the same as SP's. Third guy who stood out in instructs was Chris Murphy.
Potential breakouts: "international prospects such as Perales, Chacon, and Chih-Jung Liu (his velocity was more mid- than upper-90s in instructs, however), or little-known pitchers such as Brendan Cellucci or A.J. Politi."
That comment on Song stinks to hear as a red sox fan. Hes 23 and having to wait a "a lot longer" doesn't seem to bode well for his development as a pitcher but I'll be rooting for him more so than maybe any prospect I've ever rooted for due to his service to the country. There's nothing new there though. He should be halfway through since he started in June. He will graduate (or flunk out, lol) sometimes in April. Nothing has changed.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 14, 2020 13:57:57 GMT -5
One of the real positives from Speier's chat, which I've had a chance to listen to, was his answer to why Ward was seen as having the best control despite his 4BB/9. He notes that it's because the guy is doing the hard work of learning to work his pitches on the edges. That's valuable information.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2020 22:09:19 GMT -5
Geeze, nobody subscribes to Baseball prospectus any more?
Admittedly, they have none of their regular stats for 2020 up. I've been told they're working on it.
This went up 5 days ago.
1. Casas 2. Downs 3. Song 4. Duran 5. Mata 6. Dalbec 7. Yorke 8. Lugo 9. Jimenez (unaware of added bulk and power)
10. Houck
The latter is, I believe, heavily based on him having a DRA, Deserved Run Average, of 4.20 in his three starts. DRA is an abomination. It's a well-intentioned effort to properly regress to the mean the standard counting stats, while ignoring the wealth of much better data from Statcast. I've already determined that he had a 2.27 deserved ERA before regressing K rate, BB rate, and hardness of contact, which actually don't require much regression. And the standard way of regression to the mean that everyone uses is demonstrably too severe; it squeezes everyone with small samples into a narrow range when the result should be the same variance as you see with larger samples.
They wrote up 8 more guys, grouped in 4 categories:
Solid pitching prospects, but limited upside; Ward, Seabold, Murphy
Good upside, but a way aways: Liu, Bradley Blalock
Interesting draft follow: Jordan, Wu-Yelland
You were going to ask about him in the comments: Groome ("His falling off the list is more due to the system getting much stronger around him, but we’re talking about a mid-rotation or bullpen prospect with an injury history now, not a potential future ace").
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2020 23:18:35 GMT -5
Another opinion (fantasy):
/photo/1
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 27, 2020 10:16:55 GMT -5
Jeter Downs at 11 is bananas.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2020 10:38:04 GMT -5
Jeter Downs at 11 is bananas. Haha, I think #2 at SP is bananas. (Teasing)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 27, 2020 10:54:27 GMT -5
Yeah, I've never even heard of any of the outlets this guy writes for and he uses an MLB Pipeline graphic for his Twitter header even though he doesn't write for them, which is suspect at best. Maybe we should keep it to reputable sources so as not to clog the thread?
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