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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 15, 2020 13:02:56 GMT -5
As it has done in the past, MLB Trade Rumors projected 2021 arbitration salaries for arbitration-eligible players. Due to the unique season, MLBTR is using three methods: Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs. Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise Based on those methods, below are projected arbitration salaries for the Red Sox arbitration-eligible players: Matt Barnes – $3.7MM / $5.7MM / $4.1MM Ryan Brasier – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM Austin Brice – $700K / $900K / $700K ($870k)Rafael Devers – $3.4MM / $6.3MM / $3.4MM Jose Peraza – $2.9MM / $3.2MM / $3.0MM (signed with Mets) Kevin Plawecki – $1.6MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM Eduardo Rodriguez – $8.3MM / $8.3MM / $8.3MM ($8.3MM)Ryan Weber – $900K / $1.5MM / $900K (outrighted to Pawtucket) www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2021.html |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 1, 2020 8:17:57 GMT -5
MLBTR was right on the money.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 1, 2020 13:11:49 GMT -5
FWIW, as I noted on Twitter, that's because he didn't get a raise from his 2020 salary. He didn't play, ergo he did not earn a raise.
This strikes me as a placeholder deal ahead of the tender deadline so the Red Sox can worry about other spots, then come back and continue negotiating a short extension that protects both sides.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 2, 2020 15:32:54 GMT -5
Slightly higher than the 60 game projection or lower than his 162 game projection. Either way, in the ballpark.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 2, 2020 16:29:18 GMT -5
There was this yesterday too.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 2, 2020 19:22:23 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 2, 2020 19:22:46 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 2, 2020 19:29:06 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 2, 2020 19:31:59 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 15, 2021 17:02:36 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 15, 2021 17:02:57 GMT -5
So today at 1 pm was the deadline to exchange figures, and there's still nothing on Devers. Ian Brown was speculating it's because they're still negotiating.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 15, 2021 17:14:45 GMT -5
and literally a minute later they agree. $4.575M. A steal.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 15, 2021 18:11:32 GMT -5
and literally a minute later they agree. $4.575M. A steal. It's giving him roughly half the credit for worth unrealized because of the missing games. If you thought they might do that, MLBTR's formula says $4.85M. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 15, 2021 18:18:01 GMT -5
How would that work out with the other arb deals?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 15, 2021 21:13:22 GMT -5
How would that work out with the other arb deals? Devers 4.85 > 4.57 (94%)
Barnes 4.8 > 4.5. (94%)
Plawecki 1.65 > 1.6 (97%)
Brasier 1.3 > 1.25 (96%)
The correlation is .999965. The slightly larger percentage for the two smaller contracts is not significant.
I didn't include Brice because of the possibility that they overpaid him a bit to help him clear waivers if needed.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 16, 2021 11:54:39 GMT -5
So to make sure I have this right, they basically paid for 111 games worth of production rather than a full 162-game proration?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 17, 2021 19:01:00 GMT -5
So to make sure I have this right, they basically paid for 111 games worth of production rather than a full 162-game proration? 94% of that, which is to say, 104. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 18, 2021 0:13:00 GMT -5
Something on the order of two months short of a full season. The implication is that they expect a return to (a vaccinated) normal by late May, early June. That sounds about right if this all plays out as anticipated. That said, anticipation did take a big hit in 2020.
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