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Post by Guidas on Nov 30, 2020 10:05:40 GMT -5
I'm sure we've all heard the rumors. I've always leaned more toward "buy pitching, trade for position players," but Eno Saris, who is always interesting posted this story on The Athletic today where he proposes five potential trades for Snell. Excerpt: The Red Sox: OF Alex Verdugo, CI Triston Casas, P Tanner HouckT here’s been some speculation that this sort of deal could happen, and there are reasons to like it from both sides. The Red Sox have struggled to put together a pitching staff, and a legit lefty to put next to Eduardo Rodríguez atop the rotation for the next three years would do a great deal of good. And among these trades, Alex Verdugo is the centerpiece with the highest projected production in 2021, and he won’t hit arbitration until 2022. He checks boxes for the Rays.
The second piece could be Tanner Houck, who was a revelation in three starts last season, but had enough question marks surrounding his abilities that he wasn’t a consensus top 100 prospect — he wasn’t even a consensus starter, given his write-ups and the fact that he only started two out of 16 games in Triple-A in 2019. The reasoning is that his low arm slot usually leads to extreme platoon splits, and as a fastball/slider guy, Houck doesn’t necessarily have the pitch mix to overcome that problem. But Houck has moved six inches on the rubber, and has thrown some change-ups and cutters that might intrigue the Rays, or maybe they think he can get through four innings despite the flaws, like a Ryan Yarbrough from the right side.I am all for moving Houck in a package for a quality MLB pitcher, in the air about Casas because he's so young and, if he develops, probably won't even get to MLB until 2023 at the earliest. Verdugo is the guy I don't want to give up right now unless you tell me they are also going to get Springer and Pederson, which is doubtful. But the package is realistic in that it would have to hurt, soooo.... |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 30, 2020 10:14:44 GMT -5
I think it's fine to discuss and react to this article here, but remember that we do have the Trade Proposal subforum and hypothetical trade proposals should be discussed there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 30, 2020 10:20:25 GMT -5
Out on Snell for what he'll cost.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 30, 2020 10:32:30 GMT -5
Trading their best OF(only starting caliber OF? depends on Beni bouncing back) who is also under team control for several more years, their best prospect and a pitcher who showed some good stuff last year in Houck for Snell does not seem a good idea. I know this package is more conjecture than rumor and Snell is a good pitcher signed to a relatively team friendly deal but this team is much further away than just one pitcher. Even if this package on its face does seem along the lines of what Snell might cost in trade, no thank you.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 30, 2020 10:58:06 GMT -5
I mean this with all due respect to Blake Snell- great pitcher- but I would sooner take a curling iron up my ass than trade that package for him when he’s had one 180 inning season then nothing else approaching that
This could be nuts on my part but I’m not positive I do Verdugo for him straight up. I think he’s going to be a high end two way outfielder for a decade
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 30, 2020 11:23:20 GMT -5
I mean this with all due respect to Blake Snell- great pitcher- but I would sooner take a curling iron up my ass than trade that package for him when he’s had one 180 inning season then nothing else approaching that This could be nuts on my part but I’m not positive I do Verdugo for him straight up. I think he’s going to be a high end two way outfielder for a decade I agree completely....except for the curling iron |
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Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 30, 2020 12:39:08 GMT -5
Agreed on having little interest in the deal, but in 2016 and 2017 he did pitch a lot in AAA and the Rays were building his innings nicely.
16: 152
17: 173
18: 181
19: 107 (broken toe, loose bodies in elbow)
20: 50
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 30, 2020 13:20:10 GMT -5
Nope, I'd target a guy like Jon Gray.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Nov 30, 2020 13:24:35 GMT -5
Agreed on having little interest in the deal, but in 2016 and 2017 he did pitch a lot in AAA and the Rays were building his innings nicely. 16: 152 17: 173 18: 181 19: 107 (broken toe, loose bodies in elbow) 20: 50 I'm out on Snell. 1. He was a petulant child during the first recess due to Covid and only cared about getting his. 2. He was a baby about getting taken out of the playoff game (whether it was the right move or not, you don't show up your coaches like that). 3. He has in the past derided trades Tampa has made that ultimately worked out better for Tampa. (because they always seem to) I just don't want that kind of negativity on my team, as soon as things start to go wrong for those types of players they take the whole ship down with them. Seeing what the ask is also colors this, I saw what was being proposed and if I were Bloom I would just laugh and hang up. NEXT. |
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Post by tyler3 on Nov 30, 2020 13:39:12 GMT -5
Timing seems off to me as well. When we traded for Sale we were a playoff team looking for that last piece. Now we most likely would waste the first two years of Snell for sure.
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Post by Canseco on Nov 30, 2020 13:49:13 GMT -5
At that cost? As Vince McMahon would say, “No chance in... HELLLLLLLLLL!”
Honestly, let’s avoid the big ticket items for once and focus on improved pitching depth and overall team defense. This offense isn’t far off. Direct resources to extending Devers, Rodriguez, and buying out Bogaerts’ opt-outs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2020 14:35:51 GMT -5
This Blake Snell stuff is really silly.
The Red Sox aren't a Blake Snell away from being a major power in the AL. And honestly it's not like Snell is a reliable workhorse that you trade your farm system away.
And the "proposed" trade is silly. Verdugo is more likely to have more value over the next several seasons.
And to trade the cornerstone of your farm system away makes absolutely no sense. Casas, if he's healthy, will be the best 1b to come out of the system since Mo Vaughn (and Youkilis was damn good, too, even if I still think of him developing as a 3b).
And tack on a valuable pitcher like Houck? Laughable proposal.
When the Sox made the Chris Sale deal the timing made sense even if the cost made me pause (I was always high on Moncada and of course Kopech has that electric arm). Add to it that Sale was the kind of guy who has the personality that plays well in Boston and was perfectly open to an extension, as opposed to being a rental/mercenary, which also made the deal more palatable.
Reading the Snell stuff just comes off as so silly.....and the Red Sox didn't fire Dombrowski and hire Bloom so he could destroy what little of the farm system that they have.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 30, 2020 16:20:01 GMT -5
So Soon after Bloom left Tampa for Boston, it seems like the valuations would have a tough time adding up. i don't know, does one have tough time going from the hunter to the hunted with teams in the same division ?? Just seems like he knows who they would look for and probably doesn't want to give that up.
As far as Snell. I agree his past innings don't show for future stud projection. However, he is just 27 and terribly cheap for his upside. They ought to throw their hat in the ring and at least have a conversation.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 30, 2020 17:10:05 GMT -5
So Soon after Bloom left Tampa for Boston, it seems like the valuations would have a tough time adding up. i don't know, does one have tough time going from the hunter to the hunted with teams in the same division ?? Just seems like he knows who they would look for and probably doesn't want to give that up. As far as Snell. I agree his past innings don't show for future stud projection. However, he is just 27 and terribly cheap for his upside. They ought to throw their hat in the ring and at least have a conversation. I agree doesn't hurt to make a couple phone calls. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 30, 2020 17:33:39 GMT -5
This Blake Snell stuff is really silly. The Red Sox aren't a Blake Snell away from being a major p ower in the AL.And honestly it's not like Snell is a reliable workhorse that you trade your farm system away.And the "proposed" trade is silly. Verdugo is more likely to have more value over the next several seasons. And to trade the cornerstone of your farm system away makes absolutely no sense. Casas, if he's healthy, will be the best 1b to come out of the system since Mo Vaughn (and Youkilis was damn good, too, even if I still think of him developing as a 3b). And tack on a valuable pitcher like Houck? Laughable proposal. When the Sox made the Chris Sale deal the timing made sense even if the cost made me pause (I was always high on Moncada and of course Kopech has that electric arm). Add to it that Sale was the kind of guy who has the personality that plays well in Boston and was perfectly open to an extension, as opposed to being a rental/mercenary, which also made the deal more palatable. Reading the Snell stuff just comes off as so silly.....and the Red Sox didn't fire Dombrowski and hire Bloom so he could destroy what little of the farm system that they have. i agree with this, mostly. However, baseball being baseball, next year could be very interesting. Maybe it is the homer in me, but last year cant account for too much. There aren't many great dominant teams in the AL. We have AC back in tow, which the players should respond too. A pitcher like Snell, assuming health and performance is worth what ? 3 or 4 wins. The Sox got off to an abysmal start, but played decently over the last 30 games, IIRC. |
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Post by orion09 on Nov 30, 2020 18:01:11 GMT -5
Adjusted fWAR per 150 games, 2019-2020:
Blake Snell: 2.9
Alex Verdugo: 3.6
Years of control
Blake Snell: 3
Alex Verdugo: 4
Even straight up, that's gonna be a "thanks, but no thanks" for me
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 30, 2020 19:40:33 GMT -5
I think Eno Saris is way off on what Snell will return from anybody. It's like as if he didn't notice there's a pandemic in town. The AAV of $10M is attractive but the actual salary of $42M/3 years is going to eliminate a lot of teams, without even including prospects. There are also going to be several very good pitchers available before long. Essentially all the Carrasco's of the world.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2020 22:37:37 GMT -5
This Blake Snell stuff is really silly. The Red Sox aren't a Blake Snell away from being a major p ower in the AL.And honestly it's not like Snell is a reliable workhorse that you trade your farm system away.And the "proposed" trade is silly. Verdugo is more likely to have more value over the next several seasons. And to trade the cornerstone of your farm system away makes absolutely no sense. Casas, if he's healthy, will be the best 1b to come out of the system since Mo Vaughn (and Youkilis was damn good, too, even if I still think of him developing as a 3b). And tack on a valuable pitcher like Houck? Laughable proposal. When the Sox made the Chris Sale deal the timing made sense even if the cost made me pause (I was always high on Moncada and of course Kopech has that electric arm). Add to it that Sale was the kind of guy who has the personality that plays well in Boston and was perfectly open to an extension, as opposed to being a rental/mercenary, which also made the deal more palatable. Reading the Snell stuff just comes off as so silly.....and the Red Sox didn't fire Dombrowski and hire Bloom so he could destroy what little of the farm system that they have. i agree with this, mostly. However, baseball being baseball, next year could be very interesting. Maybe it is the homer in me, but last year cant account for too much. There aren't many great dominant teams in the AL. We have AC back in tow, which the players should respond too. A pitcher like Snell, assuming health and performance is worth what ? 3 or 4 wins. The Sox got off to an abysmal start, but played decently over the last 30 games, IIRC. Obviously having Cora last season would have helped, but it's not like Cora could have pitched. The pitching was horrendous last year. We were left with some hopeful times, like seeing Houck and Pivetta pitch well over the smallest of sample sizes, but the pen wasn't very good and the pitching really wasn't that good and the offense was no longer strong enough to make up for the pitching weaknesses. It's not like the Red Sox were projected to be a strong contender (I mean competing against TB and NY in the division) and shocked everybody with their performance. They were about as mediocre as expected. The team has a lot of pitching that it needs to acquire to stand toe-to-toe with the top pitching teams in the league and they have holes at 2b and CF (assuming JBJ is likely gone), a question mark at DH (I suspect JDM bounces back most of the way, but you can't say for absolutely sure), and uncertainty at 1b. The Red Sox, unless they have a 2013-like miracle, are not a very good team. You can go throughout the league and most teams project better, although it's not out of the realm of possibility that Bloom finds the success that Duquette did toward the beginning in 1995, or Theo in the winter of 02-03, and then 03-04, or Cherington like the winter of 12-13 - there are many possibilities that he can strike a bunch of bargains and they add up - but you can't count on that at this point. And then to deal Snell for Verdugo, Casas, and Houck! That's crazy. I think that Verdugo would be giving up too much for Snell as I trust Verdugo's future more than Snell's. And as far as Casas - I totally believe in that guy. I don't know about Freddie Freeman, but I don't see why Casas can't be a guy hitting .270 with 35 HRs/year. I think he's got it in him. No way I trade him if I'm the Red Sox. He should anchor that middle of the order for at least half a decade. I'd trade Houck for Snell, but I doubt Tampa would. I like Houck and before I would have said that's I'm 99% sure he's a valuable setup man. Now I think it's more likely than not that he's a setup man, but the possibility of being a solid starter is there, and I can't easily dismiss that. He only had 3 solid starts, but he certainly has me wanting to see more. Now I have no doubt that Bloom isn't crazy enough to entertain a hypothetical trade proposal like that. He's going to build the team slowly, improve the system's depth, build a new core and trade his way to the depth he needs to add to and surround the core. I don't think it will be overnight, but I think he's trying to build something that lasts quite awhile, and the Sox haven't had that since Theo was here. |
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Post by Ryanod1 on Nov 30, 2020 23:03:45 GMT -5
I really hope that we steer clear of this one. Too many pieces are needed to compete so it would be a foolish move that would ultimately hamstring us long term yet again. Luckily Bloom is a GM that would tend to value prospects, and logically look at their situation. So not thinking this happens. We need to run far away from the NOW NOW NOW mentality.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 30, 2020 23:20:03 GMT -5
Pass on Snell for that package. If the Sox were a Blake Snell from contending for a title, maybe but it’s still expensive.
I think it’s going to be a slower retool this time around. Bloom may add a rule 5 guy, sign a few mid tier free agents, and troll the waiver wire again. More trades this off-season. Guys with one year of control left that can be had for 40 man bubble prospects(s) or buying prospects via trade for guys like Gregor Polanco will be a way to use the financial muscle to speed up the farm rebuild.
Two years and JD, Eovaldi, and Price will all be off the payroll along with Pedroia after 2021. Only Sale and Bogaerts will be under contract after 2022. Building the prospect pool will be the focus for the next two years, IMO.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 1, 2020 0:40:57 GMT -5
Verdugo and Houck had 3.2 bWAR last year and Snell had 1.1. The Sox pair average 5 years of control, much of it pre-arb, where Snell has 3 years at $10M AAV and more actually.
Snell's 2020 projects to 3.3 bWAR over a full season, which is also his 3-2-1 weighted WAR for the last few years. His Marcel WAR projection is 7.0 wins over 3 years. I'm not going to bother with Verdugo's.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 1, 2020 6:47:03 GMT -5
Respect people's opinions on waiting to build the team, but I don't think Bloom thinks like that. More to the point, I think his expectation is that they should be competing for playoff spots this upcoming year.
Pandemic revenues notwithstanding, the team has financial flexibility now. All the other top teams in the AL have questions. If it was the NL, sure. Dodgers, Braves, Padres all seem real stout. We should not confuse being shrewd with throwing in the towel, for this season. This franchise just isn't built to operate that way.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 1, 2020 7:12:30 GMT -5
Casas and Houck alone is too much for me. Snell just doesn’t eat innings and IMO we’ve already seen his peak.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 1, 2020 7:43:36 GMT -5
Can he throw strikes?
Everything in my mind is telling me that the Sox need to stay away and just build this thing. Then I remember watching Ryan Weber make starts for this team. It depends what the return would be for him. If the Rays are looking for a Sale type haul then walk away. If its reasonable then pursue it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 1, 2020 13:14:18 GMT -5
As was pointed out to me on Twitter, the premise of the Sarris piece is starting with the Archer deal and making comparisons to that. In one sense, that premise makes sense - it's what the Rays will ask for. In another sense, it's silly - everyone agrees the Pirates got absolutely fleeced in that deal, and that was before Archer fell apart.
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