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Devers, Dalbec, and Casas too... the infield corners going forward
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Post by Guidas on Dec 21, 2020 14:09:25 GMT -5
I wouldn't be interested in shopping Jeter Downs even if the Sox signed Kim. Too much uncertainty with Devers defensively long term at third base and Xander's opt out too. If they decide to open the year with Dalbec then he should be at 3rd and Devers should be at 1st. Dalbec was an average to slightly above average defensive 3rd baseman with a plus arm. Devers has had exactly 1 year with a non-negative UZR/150.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 21, 2020 15:02:12 GMT -5
I wouldn't be interested in shopping Jeter Downs even if the Sox signed Kim. Too much uncertainty with Devers defensively long term at third base and Xander's opt out too. If they decide to open the year with Dalbec then he should be at 3rd and Devers should be at 1st. Dalbec was an average to slightly above average defensive 3rd baseman with a plus arm. Devers has had exactly 1 year with a non-negative UZR/150. I don't think that's an accurate assessment of Dalbec now though. He's gotten much bigger and stiffer. I'm not confident he'd be average-to-above-average at third anymore. We had an interesting discussion of this on the podcast with Alex in which he mentions whether Dalbec would be worth more to a team that would play him at third, and Ian gives his assessment that he and other scouts saw that he was a lot less athletic at third in 2019, and Alex agrees that he looked pretty stiff this year. Devers has more upside at third. Might he wind up below-average? Sure. Can he still improve? Sure - he's 24 for the entire 2021 season. Add that we don't even know if Dalbec is a major league regular yet, and it's way too soon to make that move.
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Post by soxinjersey on Dec 21, 2020 15:55:55 GMT -5
I wouldn't be interested in shopping Jeter Downs even if the Sox signed Kim. Too much uncertainty with Devers defensively long term at third base and Xander's opt out too. If they decide to open the year with Dalbec then he should be at 3rd and Devers should be at 1st. Dalbec was an average to slightly above average defensive 3rd baseman with a plus arm. Devers has had exactly 1 year with a non-negative UZR/150. This is an intriguing situation. The Sox could move Devers to first base for 2021 and Dalbec to 3rd, but what do they do in 2022 (or late-2021) when they hope Casas will be ready? Of the three players, it seems to me that they definitely will want Devers' and Casas' bats in the line-up. Do they move Devers back to 3rd when Casas comes up, or do they hope Cora can work some magic on Devers at 3rd in spring training 2021 and beyond? Another piece here: JDM has an opt-out after 2021, with one more year (2022) left on his contract. It's far from certain that the Sox would re-sign him after 2022, so they might need a DH already for 2022 if JDM finds a multi-year contract elsewhere and opts out. But, should the Sox use a young player such as Dalbec or Devers primarily as a DH? (That would not be my choice as a manager or player.) Another possible piece here: I've often wondered why nobody has suggested giving Dalbec some time as a corner outfielder because his bat profiles well there, and his arm in right field in Fenway would be a genuine weapon. (I would start him in LF first because it would be an easier transition.) He's a fine athlete with, apparently, good defensive instincts. Will he be able to read the ball off the bat and track fly balls? I'd like to see him try. If Dalbec could add the OF to positions he can play, he would become a much more valuable player for the Sox (esp. in 2022 and beyond) or to another team in a trade. I didn't like the Renfroe trade at first, partially because I saw him as taking a position I had envisioned as a possibility for Dalbec, but the more I think about it, the more I like it because it gives the Sox more depth and flexibility (with platoon possibilities), and, if everything works right, some valuable trade chips. If JDM leaves, the Sox could use their power bats, including Renfroe, Dalbec, and Devers (and perhaps Chavis), as part of a multi-player rotation at DH.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 21, 2020 22:27:32 GMT -5
If they decide to open the year with Dalbec then he should be at 3rd and Devers should be at 1st. Dalbec was an average to slightly above average defensive 3rd baseman with a plus arm. Devers has had exactly 1 year with a non-negative UZR/150. I don't think that's an accurate assessment of Dalbec now though. He's gotten much bigger and stiffer. I'm not confident he'd be average-to-above-average at third anymore. We had an interesting discussion of this on the podcast with Alex in which he mentions whether Dalbec would be worth more to a team that would play him at third, and Ian gives his assessment that he and other scouts saw that he was a lot less athletic at third in 2019, and Alex agrees that he looked pretty stiff this year. Devers has more upside at third. Might he wind up below-average? Sure. Can he still improve? Sure - he's 24 for the entire 2021 season. Add that we don't even know if Dalbec is a major league regular yet, and it's way too soon to make that move.I agree with the latter and that was the big "if" - if they decide that he's a starter. I think Devers, given his track record, has a lot to prove at third. He might've leveled off last year in a 160 game season, but his defensive play was at best unfocused - he actually seems to screw-up routine plays more than difficult ones - and at worst was costing them games. I still think the best solution for him is 1st base. I also hope he comes into preseason in shape this year. Last year it was apparent he had not done so.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 21, 2020 22:39:33 GMT -5
By way too soon I mean a year at least. Not like, too soon this offseason.
Dalbec needs to prove he can stick in the majors before it even becomes a consideration. He hasn't done that yet. Their choosing to give him a shot to prove that is the first part of that process, not the end result.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 22, 2020 7:49:08 GMT -5
If they decide to open the year with Dalbec then he should be at 3rd and Devers should be at 1st. Dalbec was an average to slightly above average defensive 3rd baseman with a plus arm. Devers has had exactly 1 year with a non-negative UZR/150. This is an intriguing situation. The Sox could move Devers to first base for 2021 and Dalbec to 3rd, but what do they do in 2022 (or late-2021) when they hope Casas will be ready? Of the three players, it seems to me that they definitely will want Devers' and Casas' bats in the line-up. Do they move Devers back to 3rd when Casas comes up, or do they hope Cora can work some magic on Devers at 3rd in spring training 2021 and beyond? Another piece here: JDM has an opt-out after 2021, with one more year (2022) left on his contract. It's far from certain that the Sox would re-sign him after 2022, so they might need a DH already for 2022 if JDM finds a multi-year contract elsewhere and opts out. But, should the Sox use a young player such as Dalbec or Devers primarily as a DH? (That would not be my choice as a manager or player.) Another possible piece here: I've often wondered why nobody has suggested giving Dalbec some time as a corner outfielder because his bat profiles well there, and his arm in right field in Fenway would be a genuine weapon. (I would start him in LF first because it would be an easier transition.) He's a fine athlete with, apparently, good defensive instincts. Will he be able to read the ball off the bat and track fly balls? I'd like to see him try. If Dalbec could add the OF to positions he can play, he would become a much more valuable player for the Sox (esp. in 2022 and beyond) or to another team in a trade. I didn't like the Renfroe trade at first, partially because I saw him as taking a position I had envisioned as a possibility for Dalbec, but the more I think about it, the more I like it because it gives the Sox more depth and flexibility (with platoon possibilities), and, if everything works right, some valuable trade chips. If JDM leaves, the Sox could use their power bats, including Renfroe, Dalbec, and Devers (and perhaps Chavis), as part of a multi-player rotation at DH. I'll trust Chris and Ian in saying Dalbec isn't a good defensive third baseman anymore. If that's indeed the case, all signs point to Dalbec being a short term solution until Casas is ready. Dalbec would be a bad defensive outfielder with that big body. I think Devers is a DH as soon as JDM leaves town. I'm not sure what Xander will be soon, besides a bad short stop defensively (a Derek Jeter clone defensively, yeah that bad). He's a rock offensively. The short stop and third base questions defensively are the biggest elephants in the room that I think the Sox will probably live with for the time being. They kind of have to live with it. The best compliments I can give to their defense right now at SS and 3B is- How high is their OPS again? Alex Cora might be the key into Devers last hope into sticking at third base long term. At least, that's what the Sox might be thinking here. Keeping all the near term impact middle infield and third base depth in this system will be critical in terms of building this roster real soon, is my take. Or of course finding outside solutions to SS and/or 3B.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2020 10:36:43 GMT -5
This is an intriguing situation. The Sox could move Devers to first base for 2021 and Dalbec to 3rd, but what do they do in 2022 (or late-2021) when they hope Casas will be ready? Of the three players, it seems to me that they definitely will want Devers' and Casas' bats in the line-up. Do they move Devers back to 3rd when Casas comes up, or do they hope Cora can work some magic on Devers at 3rd in spring training 2021 and beyond? Another piece here: JDM has an opt-out after 2021, with one more year (2022) left on his contract. It's far from certain that the Sox would re-sign him after 2022, so they might need a DH already for 2022 if JDM finds a multi-year contract elsewhere and opts out. But, should the Sox use a young player such as Dalbec or Devers primarily as a DH? (That would not be my choice as a manager or player.) Another possible piece here: I've often wondered why nobody has suggested giving Dalbec some time as a corner outfielder because his bat profiles well there, and his arm in right field in Fenway would be a genuine weapon. (I would start him in LF first because it would be an easier transition.) He's a fine athlete with, apparently, good defensive instincts. Will he be able to read the ball off the bat and track fly balls? I'd like to see him try. If Dalbec could add the OF to positions he can play, he would become a much more valuable player for the Sox (esp. in 2022 and beyond) or to another team in a trade. I didn't like the Renfroe trade at first, partially because I saw him as taking a position I had envisioned as a possibility for Dalbec, but the more I think about it, the more I like it because it gives the Sox more depth and flexibility (with platoon possibilities), and, if everything works right, some valuable trade chips. If JDM leaves, the Sox could use their power bats, including Renfroe, Dalbec, and Devers (and perhaps Chavis), as part of a multi-player rotation at DH. I'll trust Chris and Ian in saying Dalbec isn't a good defensive third baseman anymore. If that's indeed the case, all signs point to Dalbec being a short term solution until Casas is ready. Dalbec would be a bad defensive outfielder with that big body. I think Devers is a DH as soon as JDM leaves town. I'm not sure what Xander will be soon, besides a bad short stop defensively (a Derek Jeter clone defensively, yeah that bad). He's a rock offensively. Color me bullish on Devers' defensive future. He makes a lot of great plays and botches routine ones. Getting him to make the routine plays is low-hanging fruit, player development-wise: you don't need him to find another level which he may or may not ever reach, you just need him to improve his focus and reliably do a thing he's already capable of doing. And the upside is an above-average defensive third baseman.
Dalbec, meanwhile, hasn't proved anything and is 16 months older than Devers... It's weird because I feel like I've been reading here for years about what a great defensive third baseman he is, and how great his arm is, and how he'd be squandered at first. Am I misremembering, or has the evaluation really changed in the last year or so?
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 22, 2020 16:13:28 GMT -5
I'll trust Chris and Ian in saying Dalbec isn't a good defensive third baseman anymore. If that's indeed the case, all signs point to Dalbec being a short term solution until Casas is ready. Dalbec would be a bad defensive outfielder with that big body. I think Devers is a DH as soon as JDM leaves town. I'm not sure what Xander will be soon, besides a bad short stop defensively (a Derek Jeter clone defensively, yeah that bad). He's a rock offensively. Color me bullish on Devers' defensive future. He makes a lot of great plays and botches routine ones. Getting him to make the routine plays is low-hanging fruit, player development-wise: you don't need him to find another level which he may or may not ever reach, you just need him to improve his focus and reliably do a thing he's already capable of doing. And the upside is an above-average defensive third baseman.
Dalbec, meanwhile, hasn't proved anything and is 16 months older than Devers... It's weird because I feel like I've been reading here for years about what a great defensive third baseman he is, and how great his arm is, and how he'd be squandered at first. Am I misremembering, or has the evaluation really changed in the last year or so?
Devers sprint speed has already spiked down as of last year. He has the body already that suggests that this might be more than temporary already. The Red Sox moved Ortiz full time to the DH spot to save his value back when he was 27. I see a similar path with Devers. His body is catching up with him as he trying to learn to be average at the position.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 22, 2020 18:01:48 GMT -5
Color me bullish on Devers' defensive future. He makes a lot of great plays and botches routine ones. Getting him to make the routine plays is low-hanging fruit, player development-wise: you don't need him to find another level which he may or may not ever reach, you just need him to improve his focus and reliably do a thing he's already capable of doing. And the upside is an above-average defensive third baseman.
Dalbec, meanwhile, hasn't proved anything and is 16 months older than Devers... It's weird because I feel like I've been reading here for years about what a great defensive third baseman he is, and how great his arm is, and how he'd be squandered at first. Am I misremembering, or has the evaluation really changed in the last year or so?
Devers sprint speed has already spiked down as of last year. He has the body already that suggests that this might be more than temporary already. The Red Sox moved Ortiz full time to the DH spot to save his value back when he was 27. I see a similar path with Devers. His body is catching up with him as he trying to learn to be average at the position. I was looking at Dalbec's sprint speed and comparing it to other LF's, and his comps, Schwarber and Rosario, both lost 0.3 last year exactly like Benintendi. I may look into this as a general phenomenon, but it makes sense that a lot of guys got heavier and/or out of shape last year, meaning that declines are ot necessarily meaningful.
Dalbec projects as an OK LF (or RF in a stadium like NY) with below average range and a plus arm, given that he learns to run average routes.
As far as Devers' defense, I would put the odds of him winning a Gold Glove at some point in his career as higher than the odds of his needing to move off of 3B in the next few years.
UZR gives the run values of errors made, and Statcast has the run values of total plays made. The difference is range.
These are both in R/150 G.
Errors -14, -8.5, 0, -10. A strong improving trend which got him to MLB average at age 22 and then a collapse in a weird year with messed-up training and the unexpected absence of his mentor.
Range -4, -2, +5, +4.
And the decline in sprint speed suggests that there was actually a further improvement in 2020 in the skill component of range.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 22, 2020 19:37:05 GMT -5
the unexpected absence of his mentor. Carlos Febles was still on the staff. (FWIW, Alex called me out for making this mistake on the podcast, and rightfully so. I'm not sure the absence of Cora was as important as it might seem, or at least any moreso than it was for any other player.)
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Post by orion09 on Dec 22, 2020 20:03:46 GMT -5
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Post by soxinjersey on Dec 22, 2020 21:17:38 GMT -5
Devers sprint speed has already spiked down as of last year. He has the body already that suggests that this might be more than temporary already. The Red Sox moved Ortiz full time to the DH spot to save his value back when he was 27. I see a similar path with Devers. His body is catching up with him as he trying to learn to be average at the position. I was looking at Dalbec's sprint speed and comparing it to other LF's, and his comps, Schwarber and Rosario, both lost 0.3 last year exactly like Benintendi. I may look into this as a general phenomenon, but it makes sense that a lot of guys got heavier and/or out of shape last year, meaning that declines are ot necessarily meaningful.
Dalbec projects as an OK LF (or RF in a stadium like NY) with below average range and a plus arm, given that he learns to run average routes.
As far as Devers' defense, I would put the odds of him winning a Gold Glove at some point in his career as higher than the odds of his needing to move off of 3B in the next few years.
UZR gives the run values of errors made, and Statcast has the run values of total plays made. The difference is range.
These are both in R/150 G.
Errors -14, -8.5, 0, -10. A strong improving trend which got him to MLB average at age 22 and then a collapse in a weird year with messed-up training and the unexpected absence of his mentor.
Range -4, -2, +5, +4.
And the decline in sprint speed suggests that there was actually a further improvement in 2020 in the skill component of range.
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Post by soxinjersey on Dec 22, 2020 21:56:48 GMT -5
I suggested that the Sox should look at Dalbec in the outfield for next year because it would make him a more useful player moving forward. If Casas is for real, and probably limited to 1B, then Devers, ideally, is at 3B moving forward. Eric's evidence above suggests that he can be very good there. Another piece is that his teammates seem to like playing with him. That's important. At the same time, if 1B and 3B are locked up, what do you do with Dalbec? His contact issues might make him a lost cause, but he has progressed steadily through the system, and his power is for real. If he hits 25-30 HRs next year, do they find a spot for him in the future line-up? The outfield might offer a way for them to do so.
I'm optimistic about next year and beyond because so much of success in sports is the product of planning and teaching. Tampa Bay seems the master in these areas, and there are signs Bloom has brought this culture with him. The media are laughing at the Sox's abysmal season last year, but the reality is that they played very well against good teams (who were trying to win) in the final 2-3 weeks of the season, and young players (including Dalbec) made significant contributions after making jumps forward at the ATS. That kind of improvement seems proof of good teaching and (we can hope) positively evolving team culture. Can Sox coaches help Raffy with his fielding? Dalbec with his hit tool? We'll see. My trust in the process is growing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 23, 2020 10:24:28 GMT -5
I was looking at Dalbec's sprint speed and comparing it to other LF's, and his comps, Schwarber and Rosario, both lost 0.3 last year exactly like Benintendi. I may look into this as a general phenomenon, but it makes sense that a lot of guys got heavier and/or out of shape last year, meaning that declines are ot necessarily meaningful. Dalbec projects as an OK LF (or RF in a stadium like NY) with below average range and a plus arm, given that he learns to run average routes. Are you just looking at sprint speed? If that's all, I'd throw in that Dalbec isn't particularly agile and isn't someone I'd project as having a good first step. Once he gets up to speed he's in the 49th percentile per Baseball Savant, which squares with what he saw in the minors (note in his player page scouting report we note his well below average speed (as measured sprinting to first base) while also saying he can go first-to-third on a single when he gets up to speed), but he takes a bit to get there. My understanding of Baseball Savant sprint speed is that it's when a player is at his max speed, which would probably happen on a double or first-to-third sort of situation. I'd trade Dalbec for a true outfielder rather than try him in left, personally. I don't think that'd go well. I'm not sure he'd be a butcher, but I'm also not sure he'd be a better fit than someone you could aquire.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 23, 2020 10:37:30 GMT -5
Agree there. Muscular, big bodied guys make me cringe for Boston playing the OF. Remember Rice and especially Tony Armas playing CF. While Rice was passable, tho no Yaz playing left. Armas could hardly move playing center those 2 seasons.
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Post by geostorm on Dec 23, 2020 11:09:16 GMT -5
theathletic.com/2269574/2020/12/23/bounce-back-hitters-2021-mlb/?source=dailyemail Snippet from Eno Sarris' article on 4 hitters he identifies for 2021 bounce Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox "But there are some question marks that lurk. For one, Devers had the worst defensive numbers of his career in 2020, and the advanced metrics seemed to support that there’s some risk there. He was 212th out of 259 qualified defenders by Outs Above Average, and among third basemen, only J.D. Davis and David Bote scored worse. But … in 2019 he was the fifth-best defender at his position? Maybe the young man encountered a tough season mentally and physically? Was a seemingly minor ankle injury at fault? Or is his body aging worse than expected? His sprint speed has gone from the 75th percentile to the 39th in four short years." "...at the plate, there is some risk. Devers never had great plate discipline, but it’s only getting worse, and only six qualified batters reached at balls outside the strike zone more last season. Even within the zone, he’s making about the same contact as guys like Miguel Sano and Franmil Reyes. It’s a bit of a tough combo to reach at balls that are pitcher’s pitches while not making a ton of contact on pitches inside the zone, as you can see." "Devers makes so much hard contact that it’s probably going to be fine. An offseason without a new baby, a season without a bad ankle, a normal season might produce the kind of environment that will lead to better sprint scores, better defense and just enough plate discipline to make it all hum. But last season did shine the spotlight on some of the flaws in his game."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 23, 2020 13:38:59 GMT -5
I was looking at Dalbec's sprint speed and comparing it to other LF's, and his comps, Schwarber and Rosario, both lost 0.3 last year exactly like Benintendi. I may look into this as a general phenomenon, but it makes sense that a lot of guys got heavier and/or out of shape last year, meaning that declines are ot necessarily meaningful. Dalbec projects as an OK LF (or RF in a stadium like NY) with below average range and a plus arm, given that he learns to run average routes. Are you just looking at sprint speed? If that's all, I'd throw in that Dalbec isn't particularly agile and isn't someone I'd project as having a good first step. Once he gets up to speed he's in the 49th percentile per Baseball Savant, which squares with what he saw in the minors (note in his player page scouting report we note his well below average speed (as measured sprinting to first base) while also saying he can go first-to-third on a single when he gets up to speed), but he takes a bit to get there. My understanding of Baseball Savant sprint speed is that it's when a player is at his max speed, which would probably happen on a double or first-to-third sort of situation. I'd trade Dalbec for a true outfielder rather than try him in left, personally. I don't think that'd go well. I'm not sure he'd be a butcher, but I'm also not sure he'd be a better fit than someone you could aquire. A good point about first step(s) versus sprint speed. OTOH, we don't know what kind of jump he might get; that's a brain thing.
I would classify Dalbec in LF as a thing worth trying, e.g. in ST, with maybe a 20% chance of pursuing it further because he seems to have some natural talent at reading the ball off the bat. That skill is not trivial, as evidenced by the fact that it's the only component of range that JBJ has that's not average.
The actual likeliest potential home for Dalbec is as a DH who's your backup 1B and #3 option at 3B. That depends on his ability to hit coming off the bench. It would really help if they could get a handle on that this year, but that seems iffy.
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Post by rasimon on Jan 8, 2021 21:27:24 GMT -5
Id give up downs for him too. Best case scenario is downs is as good as marte it seems. Probably a pipe dream but with how dang slow the offseason is what else do we really have to talk about. Marte has one of the more team friendly contracts in baseball. 21:$6M, 22:$8M, 23:$10M club option ($1M buyout), 24:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout). His current AAV is $4.5M for 2021 and 2022. Forgive my ignorance, but I'm not sure how the AAV is affected with the option years. That being said, I think it would take a kings ransom to pry him away from Arizona. I think you could use the same type of framework as the Mookie-Price deal. If I'm Arizona, I would offer something like Marte-Bumgarner and $28M for Downs, Duran or Mata, and Pivetta or Arroyo. Personally, I think that's too much to give up for the Sox. If Boston could get away with Marte-Bumgarner and $28M for some combination of Dalbec, Potts, Lugo, Chatham, Ward, Arroyo, Murphy, Cannon, Arauz, Wilson, or Flores then I'm all for it. Arizona would have to be really financially motivated to move Marte and attaching Bumgarner would be the only scenario where Arizona would move him, IMO. what is your projection for Dalbec in 2021? ZIPS is not optimistic .217 /.302 / .409 Steamer is a bit more optimistic .234 /.318 /.456 Baseball Reference is even more optimistic .249 /.336 /.470 if you lean toward BR and considering the Sox may need to move Devers - would you really want to give up your potential 3bman?
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 8, 2021 22:50:18 GMT -5
Marte has one of the more team friendly contracts in baseball. 21:$6M, 22:$8M, 23:$10M club option ($1M buyout), 24:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout). His current AAV is $4.5M for 2021 and 2022. Forgive my ignorance, but I'm not sure how the AAV is affected with the option years. That being said, I think it would take a kings ransom to pry him away from Arizona. I think you could use the same type of framework as the Mookie-Price deal. If I'm Arizona, I would offer something like Marte-Bumgarner and $28M for Downs, Duran or Mata, and Pivetta or Arroyo. Personally, I think that's too much to give up for the Sox. If Boston could get away with Marte-Bumgarner and $28M for some combination of Dalbec, Potts, Lugo, Chatham, Ward, Arroyo, Murphy, Cannon, Arauz, Wilson, or Flores then I'm all for it. Arizona would have to be really financially motivated to move Marte and attaching Bumgarner would be the only scenario where Arizona would move him, IMO. what is your projection for Dalbec in 2021? ZIPS is not optimistic .217 /.302 / .409 Steamer is a bit more optimistic .234 /.318 /.456 Baseball Reference is even more optimistic .249 /.336 /.470 if you lean toward BR and considering the Sox may need to move Devers - would you really want to give up your potential 3bman? The first projection puts him in AAA The last may give Dalbec ROY
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Post by rasimon on Jan 8, 2021 23:19:44 GMT -5
what is your projection for Dalbec in 2021? ZIPS is not optimistic .217 /.302 / .409 Steamer is a bit more optimistic .234 /.318 /.456 Baseball Reference is even more optimistic .249 /.336 /.470 if you lean toward BR and considering the Sox may need to move Devers - would you really want to give up your potential 3bman? The first projection puts him in AAA The last may give Dalbec ROY So which do you think is more likely? Anyone have an opinion?
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Post by soxaddict on Jan 8, 2021 23:27:49 GMT -5
Honestly, not sure what to make of Dalbec. I know the 92PA in 2020 is a very small sample size, but that 42.4% K rate is unsustainable. But, if given the opportunity to acquire Ketel Marte at the expense of Dalbec, hell yes. Even if you move Devers to 1B, we have Arroyo and Munoz that could both play 3B. We also have Hudson Potts that could be ready sometime in 2022. If can improve that OBP, he can be a beast. Not to mention he's three years younger than Dalbec. I think the problem with Potts is he was rushed.
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Post by soxaddict on Jan 8, 2021 23:29:54 GMT -5
The first projection puts him in AAA The last may give Dalbec ROY So which do you think is more likely? Anyone have an opinion? I fear his weakness (K%) will be exploited by MLB pitching.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 9, 2021 0:14:29 GMT -5
The first projection puts him in AAA The last may give Dalbec ROY So which do you think is more likely? Anyone have an opinion? Somewhere in between.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 9, 2021 1:10:03 GMT -5
The first projection puts him in AAA The last may give Dalbec ROY So which do you think is more likely? Anyone have an opinion? I'll take ZIPS, but with a higher SLG, maybe .440.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 9, 2021 3:16:37 GMT -5
Honestly, not sure what to make of Dalbec. I know the 92PA in 2020 is a very small sample size, but that 42.4% K rate is unsustainable. But, if given the opportunity to acquire Ketel Marte at the expense of Dalbec, hell yes. Even if you move Devers to 1B, we have Arroyo and Munoz that could both play 3B. We also have Hudson Potts that could be ready sometime in 2022. If can improve that OBP, he can be a beast. Not to mention he's three years younger than Dalbec. I think the problem with Potts is he was rushed. Normally, when a guy has a high K rate as a rookie, it follows a pattern like this: .259 first 98 PA .364 remaining 272 (40% increase) That was Chavis. It takes some time to learn a hitter's weaknesses. .508 first 59 PA (132 wRC+, nevertheless!)
.273 remaining 33 (46% decrease; 188 wRC+)
That was Dalbec, and that was very unusual. But he's had success cutting initially high K rates his whole career. The team pretty much knows how much of that was real. We can only guess. There have been 29 guys who fanned 41%+ in 80+ PA since 1983. The wRC+ leaders: 152 Bobby Dalbec, 2020 99, Miguel Sano, 2020 93, Robel Garcia, 2019 93, Carlos Peguero, 2015 87, Joey Gallo, 2015 The closest comp to Dalbec is Joey Gallo's 144 wRC+ with a .384 K rate in 2019. There have been 16,683 hitter seasons with 80+ PA since 1983. Here is the complete list of seasons that ranked in the top 150 for both HR/Contact and BABIP: Bobby Dalbec, 2020, .195 (3rd), .394 (104th) Manny Ramirez, 2000, .117 (118th), .403 (69th) There are 3 more guys who rank in the top 300 in each. One is Marcell Ozuna this year. The other two were rookies: Season Age PA wRC+ K% UBB% HRC BABIP Craig Wilson 2001 24 181 149 .293 .077 .121 .383 Miguel Sano 2015 22 334 149 .356 .156 .111 .396 Bobby Dalbec 2020 25 92 152 .424 .109 .195 .394
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