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SoxProspects Forum Hall of Fame Voting
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Post by incandenza on Jan 13, 2021 0:55:00 GMT -5
A HoF class including Papi and Ichiro is going to be amazing.
By contrast, imagine if there's one inductee this year and it's... Curt Schilling.
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Post by rminns10 on Jan 13, 2021 8:50:29 GMT -5
Small Hall guy: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Jones
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 13, 2021 10:05:01 GMT -5
Small Hall guy: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Jones Interesting; no Manny? I have a hard time seeing non-steroids reasons to keep him out, as the best RH hitter of a generation with nine Top-10 MVP finishes and seven in the Top 6. Will you be pro-Papi? That said, I do understand the thought process of keeping out guys who tested positive after rules were clear. Interesting to see whether Cano can stay on the ballot, and if A-Rod can reach the peaks of Bonds/Clemens.
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Post by rminns10 on Jan 13, 2021 10:13:58 GMT -5
Small Hall guy: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Jones Interesting; no Manny? I have a hard time seeing non-steroids reasons to keep him out, as the best RH hitter of a generation with nine Top-10 MVP finishes and seven in the Top 6. Will you be pro-Papi? That said, I do understand the thought process of keeping out guys who tested positive after rules were clear. Interesting to see whether Cano can stay on the ballot, and if A-Rod can reach the peaks of Bonds/Clemens. I think Manny getting nailed multiple times is what keeps him out for me, by my own logic i should probably have Sosa in but something is just off about his career for me. I also wish pitchers got a better look these days, the 300 win thing is almost non existent anymore and i feel like guys like Pettite, Johan Santana etc should have gotten more consideration even if ultimately they are deemed just under the line.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 13, 2021 10:15:19 GMT -5
I think next year is going to be a reckoning on PEDs and presents Clemens and Bonds with their best chances of getting in. ARod has rehabbed his image in a way Bonds and Clemens have been unable to, and Ortiz never even had those image problems. Writers are going to want to vote for those two, but I don't see how you can do so and justify not voting for Bonds or Clemens. Bonds and Clemens have been close enough that I could see that getting them over the top.
That said, Ortiz probably isn't a first-ballot HOFer because he was a DH (which is dumb).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 13, 2021 11:23:49 GMT -5
HOF Candidate Spotlight
Gary Sheffield RF/3B/SS | 1988 - 2009 | MIL, SDP, FLA, LAD, ATL, NYY, DET, NYM 9x All-Star 1997 World Series 5x Silver Slugger Batting Title ML PoY Gary Sheffield WAR: 60.5 Better than 44.3% of HOFers Black Ink: 4 Better than 15.3% of HOFers Gray Ink: 123 Better than 29.8% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 158.0 Better than 57.9% of HOFers JAWS: 49.27 Better than 44.4% of HOFers at RF Gary Sheffield is entering his 7th year on the ballot, hoping for a repeat of last year's jump where he got over 30% after spending several years stuck in the low teens. Sheffield is one of the 91 batters in MLB history with a score of 150 or better in Bill James' Hall of Fame Monitor, a figure reached by Sheffield meeting multiple classic HOF thresholds such as 500 home runs and 2500 hits, on top of 9 All-Star appearances and 3 top-3 MVP finishes. In Sheffield's peak from 1992 to 2005, he had the 5th-highest adjusted OPS+ among players with at least 4000 PA in that span.
Defense is something we've brought up sometimes to explain why an offensive juggernaut's overall WAR might not seem as high as it should, and it's especially the case for Sheffield. By fielding runs, the number of runs better or worse than average the player was for all fielding, Sheffield has the 2nd-worst career total in MLB history. As with other candidates we'll be covering in the coming days, Sheffield's uphill climb is also connected to his involvement in the BALCO steroid scandal.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 13, 2021 12:55:27 GMT -5
Nobody has ever made me as terrified to sit on the third base side as Gary Sheffield. The only player I could watch clips of just hitting foul balls.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 13, 2021 13:02:42 GMT -5
Small Hall guy: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Jones Interesting; no Manny? I have a hard time seeing non-steroids reasons to keep him out, as the best RH hitter of a generation with nine Top-10 MVP finishes and seven in the Top 6. Will you be pro-Papi? That said, I do understand the thought process of keeping out guys who tested positive after rules were clear. Interesting to see whether Cano can stay on the ballot, and if A-Rod can reach the peaks of Bonds/Clemens. Keep in mind that Manny got nailed for PEDs twice AFTER testing was instituted. Big Papi was rumored to test positive in 2003 when they were trying to see if they could get enough positives to make testing mandatory, and as it was there were some false positives which Ortiz may or may not have been as we'll never know. We only know that he never tested positive after testing became mandatory nor was he ever implicated in anything like A-Rod was. For some that's a big difference and what could keep Manny out even if Roger and Barry go in.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 13, 2021 13:04:45 GMT -5
I think next year is going to be a reckoning on PEDs and presents Clemens and Bonds with their best chances of getting in. ARod has rehabbed his image in a way Bonds and Clemens have been unable to, and Ortiz never even had those image problems. Writers are going to want to vote for those two, but I don't see how you can do so and justify not voting for Bonds or Clemens. Bonds and Clemens have been close enough that I could see that getting them over the top. That said, Ortiz probably isn't a first-ballot HOFer because he was a DH (which is dumb). Maybe not quite for A-Rod: www.radio.com/1010wins/sports/alex-rodriguez-accused-of-racketeering-and-embezzlement-in-lawsuit-by-former-brother-in-law
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Post by manfred on Jan 13, 2021 14:06:08 GMT -5
This may be unfair and wrong, and I know it’ll take you lot seconds to say so, but my perception of Sheffield is that he was a cancer in the clubhouse. I loathe Schilling, but he helped make teams winners, and he seems to have been a good teammate. I’m a little suspicious of guys like Sheffield (Kevin Brown was like this for me, too) who are massively talented yet get moved on a good deal.
Kent also has that stigma for me. He always seemed like a guy teammates hated IIRC.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 13, 2021 16:51:20 GMT -5
Yeah, not so much. www.nj.com/yankees/2017/01/why_this_scumbag_me_will_never_give_curt_schilling.htmlThat said he seems to mostly have been a "rubbed people the wrong way" kind of guy. I recall reading (maybe it was in that article too) that his whole thing about writing in his journal in the dugout rubbed teammates the wrong way because they all had journals, they just didn't make a show of it for the cameras. While there's a lot out there about Sheffield being a clubhouse cancer, it doesn't seem like anything specific is written. Just some "he was a 'me-first' guy" stuff and that he would run his mouth sometimes in interviews. I recall hearing the same about Kent, particularly that he and Bonds never got along. That said, it's the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Nice.
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Post by manfred on Jan 13, 2021 17:22:36 GMT -5
Yeah, not so much. www.nj.com/yankees/2017/01/why_this_scumbag_me_will_never_give_curt_schilling.htmlThat said he seems to mostly have been a "rubbed people the wrong way" kind of guy. I recall reading (maybe it was in that article too) that his whole thing about writing in his journal in the dugout rubbed teammates the wrong way because they all had journals, they just didn't make a show of it for the cameras. While there's a lot out there about Sheffield being a clubhouse cancer, it doesn't seem like anything specific is written. Just some "he was a 'me-first' guy" stuff and that he would run his mouth sometimes in interviews. I recall hearing the same about Kent, particularly that he and Bonds never got along. That said, it's the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Nice. I guess my point was... and I am totally willing to accept this is off or overly subjective... is some guys have numbers that say “helped the team win” but might actually have been more detrimental than stats show. Tough or impossible to measure, but, at least taken the other way, it is to Schillings (for example) credit that where he went, winning came with him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 14, 2021 12:29:15 GMT -5
Interesting that as of right now only Bonds and Clemens get in through the SP voters, although very few players would fall off.
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Post by cdj on Jan 14, 2021 13:20:30 GMT -5
I think you have to put Hawkins in for being the Godfather to Pat Mahomes?
I went with Sosa/Clemens/Bonds/Wagner/Schilling/Jones/Manny
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 14, 2021 16:00:03 GMT -5
HOF Candidate Spotlight
Bobby Abreu RF | 1996 - 2014 | HOU, PHI, NYY, LAA, LAD, NYM 2x All-Star Gold Glove Silver Slugger Bobby Abreu WAR: 60.2 Better than 43.8% of HOFers Black Ink: 5 Better than 17.9% of HOFers Gray Ink: 88 Better than 17.9% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 94.5 Better than 23.0% of HOFers JAWS: 50.90 Better than 48.1% of HOFers at RF Bobby Abreu is entering his 2nd year on the ballot, debuting last year just north of the 5% mark needed to stay eligible. While he doesn't come in with many accolades, he does have several statistical notes that boost his case. By Power-Speed, the harmonic mean of a player's HR and SB, Abreu has the 14th best in MLB history, speaking to his abilities in both categories. He was also great at getting on base, with the 7th-highest OBP from 1998 to 2006 among players with 3000 PA in that span.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2021 11:24:42 GMT -5
Sammy Sosa RF | 1989 - 2007 | CHW, TEX, CHC, BAL MVP 7x All-Star 6x Silver Slugger ML PoY Sammy Sosa WAR: 58.6 Better than 40.9% of HOFers Black Ink: 28 Better than 61.3% of HOFers Gray Ink: 138 Better than 37.9% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 201.5 Better than 75.7% of HOFers JAWS: 51.23 Better than 51.9% of HOFers at RF Sammy Sosa is entering his 9th year on the ballot, receiving his first major boost in a long time last year when he received 13.9%, the first time he got to double digits since his debut year on the ballot. Sosa's name will forever be associated with the 1998 home run race he engaged in with Mark McGwire. McGwire finished ahead on just the home run department, but Sosa's 66 home runs paired with a .308 batting average contributed to his NL MVP win that season. By Wins Above Replacement Sosa was 9th in WAR among players who received NL MVP votes, partially caused by the negative value he produced in baserunning and defense. In general he was only getting on base if he made contact, as only Ernie Banks drew less walks than Sosa among members of the 500-HR club.
During his peak slugging years of 1998 to 2002, Sosa was 4th in adjusted OPS (min. 2500 PA) behind Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Jason Giambi. But Sosa's peak is very disparate from the rest of his career, and that combined with his involvement in the steroid era has resulted in quite the uphill climb for Sosa's candidacy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2021 11:26:58 GMT -5
Todd Helton 1B | 1997 - 2013 | COL 5x All-Star 3x Gold Glove 4x Silver Slugger Batting Title Todd Helton WAR: 61.8 Better than 46.0% of HOFers Black Ink: 16 Better than 41.3% of HOFers Gray Ink: 143 Better than 40.0% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 175.0 Better than 66.0% of HOFers JAWS: 54.19 Better than 52.4% of HOFers at 1B Todd Helton is in his 3rd year of eligibility, and experienced a good 2nd-year increase, receiving almost 30% of the vote. His 2000 season has the most black ink of any year in his career, when he led the majors in batting average, OPS, RBI and doubles. The only other players to hit 40 home runs with a .370 BA in a season are Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, Chuck Klein, Rogers Hornsby and Babe Ruth. He also provided good defensive contributions during his career, leading the NL in double plays turned at first base in 6 different seasons and finishing his career at 3rd place all-time in that department.
Some people point to Helton's offensive prowess being aided by playing in the hitter's heaven of Coors Field, but it's worth noting that during his peak years of 1998 to 2007, his adjusted OPS+, which takes park factor into account, comes out to 144, 14th among players with 3000 PA in that span but keeping pace with big names like Carlos Delgado and Gary Sheffield.
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Post by manfred on Jan 18, 2021 11:45:51 GMT -5
Sammy Sosa RF | 1989 - 2007 | CHW, TEX, CHC, BAL MVP 7x All-Star 6x Silver Slugger ML PoY Sammy Sosa WAR: 58.6 Better than 40.9% of HOFers Black Ink: 28 Better than 61.3% of HOFers Gray Ink: 138 Better than 37.9% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 201.5 Better than 75.7% of HOFers JAWS: 51.23 Better than 51.9% of HOFers at RF Sammy Sosa is entering his 9th year on the ballot, receiving his first major boost in a long time last year when he received 13.9%, the first time he got to double digits since his debut year on the ballot. Sosa's name will forever be associated with the 1998 home run race he engaged in with Mark McGwire. McGwire finished ahead on just the home run department, but Sosa's 66 home runs paired with a .308 batting average contributed to his NL MVP win that season. By Wins Above Replacement Sosa was 9th in WAR among players who received NL MVP votes, partially caused by the negative value he produced in baserunning and defense. In general he was only getting on base if he made contact, as only Ernie Banks drew less walks than Sosa among members of the 500-HR club. During his peak slugging years of 1998 to 2002, Sosa was 4th in adjusted OPS (min. 2500 PA) behind Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Jason Giambi. But Sosa's peak is very disparate from the rest of his career, and that combined with his involvement in the steroid era has resulted in quite the uphill climb for Sosa's candidacy. Sosa and McGuire are the anti-Bonds and Clemens to me. With Bonds and Clemens, there is no question they were HOFers with or without steroids... so it isn’t a question of stat inflation so much as punishing them *as* cheaters. (Not to say they don’t benefit from stat inflation but that their natural stats would have sufficed). Sosa and McGuire are the two-headed monster of the stat inflation of the era. Neither was a great... maybe even a good... player without juice. It makes the decision on them easy. But it also makes number comparisons a mess (for example, when one is now, say a 57 bWAR career RF, it puts you down a spot with Sosa ahead... but perhaps unfairly— and yes, that’s just one spot, but he might not be alone).
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 18, 2021 12:02:26 GMT -5
To me, McGwire has a stronger case than Sosa. He was a better defensive player when he came up, had a much better plate approach, and was an excellent player for a longer period of time. Sosa was great basically for five years and like a borderline All-Star type outside of that. Heading into his age 29 season, he had a 22.4 career bWAR with a peak of 5.4. That's a really good player, but it's impossible to see that as being on a Hall of Fame track. For comparison's sake, Xander is at 23.0 through age 27. Obviously I have all the love in the world for Xander, but I wouldn't say he's on track to be a Hall of Famer.
Sosa's HR total was so extreme during those five years that it puts him in a higher place in the record books, but I think we'd all agree that he wasn't a better hitter than contemporaries like Manny, Vlad, and Sheffield, and I'd even take Abreu, who was never quite as excellent but was an All-Star level player for a much longer time. I've been pretty open to the cases of guys with short, incredible peaks getting more love than they did (Johan Santana!), but I'm not really going to advocate for a borderline case whose peak came because of a huge home run spike during a time when everyone was hitting a ton of home runs.
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Post by manfred on Jan 18, 2021 12:19:31 GMT -5
To me, McGwire has a stronger case than Sosa. He was a better defensive player when he came up, had a much better plate approach, and was an excellent player for a longer period of time. Sosa was great basically for five years and like a borderline All-Star type outside of that. Heading into his age 29 season, he had a 22.4 career bWAR with a peak of 5.4. That's a really good player, but it's impossible to see that as being on a Hall of Fame track. For comparison's sake, Xander is at 23.0 through age 27. Obviously I have all the love in the world for Xander, but I wouldn't say he's on track to be a Hall of Famer. Sosa's HR total was so extreme during those five years that it puts him in a higher place in the record books, but I think we'd all agree that he wasn't a better hitter than contemporaries like Manny, Vlad, and Sheffield, and I'd even take Abreu, who was never quite as excellent but was an All-Star level player for a much longer time. I've been pretty open to the cases of guys with short, incredible peaks getting more love than they did (Johan Santana!), but I'm not really going to advocate for a borderline case whose peak came because of a huge home run spike during a time when everyone was hitting a ton of home runs. McGuire’s problem, as I see it, was he was Dave Kingman in his first maybe-clean half. From 1986-1992 his BA was .247. Discounting his first cup of coffee, in 6 years, he batted .235 or under 3 times. (And on the defense... negative dWAR 4 of the 6 years). Then, he plays 75 games in two years. Then, coming off all those injuries etc, at age 31, he is a different hitter... not just an increase in power, but even his BA jumps to .279 from 1996-2001. Huh. I am slightly biased because I *always* hated him. He was afraid of inside fastballs, tried to intimidate pitchers who came in, feasted on hanging curve balls, and generally reminded me of a softball player.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 18, 2021 12:52:43 GMT -5
Consistency was definitely an issue early in McGwire's career. But I think his peak was better than Sosa and he was great for longer (even if it wasn't consistent). McGwire fell off really quickly too. I am bearish on him, but I can see the argument more than I can for Sosa.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 18, 2021 12:52:45 GMT -5
My ballot is short and simple. Bonds Clemens and Manny. Bonds was arguably the best hitter of the last 30 or so years and probably would have made the 500/500 club without any PEDs. Take out the PEDs and he's still a HOFer. Same with Clemens. Probably gets 300 + wins without the PEDs and was hampered by playing for some crap Sox teams. Again without PEDs he's in. Manny is a little more difficult except when you looked at that swing it was beautiful. Yes he got popped multiple times at the end of his career but was it more of him trying to hold onto his past glory? He was so clutch and played in many big games. He's in my HOF.
Schilling can get bent. Character is a big part of this. Look at the world we live in right now, can you really vote for someone like him? That would send a terrible message. Albert Belle is more deserving.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 18, 2021 12:58:34 GMT -5
I think next year is going to be a reckoning on PEDs and presents Clemens and Bonds with their best chances of getting in. ARod has rehabbed his image in a way Bonds and Clemens have been unable to, and Ortiz never even had those image problems. Writers are going to want to vote for those two, but I don't see how you can do so and justify not voting for Bonds or Clemens. Bonds and Clemens have been close enough that I could see that getting them over the top. That said, Ortiz probably isn't a first-ballot HOFer because he was a DH (which is dumb). Ortiz is going to be a very interesting case. I think he gets at least 75% of the vote to be honest. Just because of what he meant to the city of Boston and the amount of big games he played in. If you look at post season highlights over the last 20 or so years you'll see lots from Ortiz. Different than any other DH that has ever played the game.
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Post by tijas2 on Jan 18, 2021 13:11:45 GMT -5
I'm going off personal eye test and lived experience, not going in to numbers, but my votes:
Bonds, Clemens, Manny, Sheffield, Sosa - I'm not a PED disqualifier, especially with the prevalence in the era. Sosa is probably to closest to not making it out of this group, but I feel all deserve to be in. Andrew Jones - In his time was one of the best I've ever seen at his position and the did enough to buoy his candidacy. Rolen & Helton - Two of best at their positions in their time, Helton barely makes in with Coors inflation Schilling - Ed Wade said it best, imo: "Every fifth day Curt's our horse. The other four days, he's our horse's ass". Won't be the first person in HoF who's views I don't care for, but HoF has people who are arguably worse people in there. Can't argue with the production, particularly in high stakes situations.
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Post by manfred on Jan 18, 2021 14:12:50 GMT -5
My ballot is short and simple. Bonds Clemens and Manny. Bonds was arguably the best hitter of the last 30 or so years and probably would have made the 500/500 club without any PEDs. Take out the PEDs and he's still a HOFer. Same with Clemens. Probably gets 300 + wins without the PEDs and was hampered by playing for some crap Sox teams. Again without PEDs he's in. Manny is a little more difficult except when you looked at that swing it was beautiful. Yes he got popped multiple times at the end of his career but was it more of him trying to hold onto his past glory? He was so clutch and played in many big games. He's in my HOF. Schilling can get bent. Character is a big part of this. Look at the world we live in right now, can you really vote for someone like him? That would send a terrible message. Albert Belle is more deserving. I am — in my heart — on board with this. Buuutttt... when I separate my politics and my love of Manny, I have to say that it is pretty hard to justify keeping Schilling out for ethics reasons but giving Manny a pass for twice failing PED tests. The wiggle room on Bonds and Rocket comes in their never having been caught. They were implicated... but Clemens was acquitted of lying about doing PEDs. Obviously I believe they are guilty. But it remains alleged. Manny is not “alleged.” He’s an easy no if one believes PEDs are disqualifying. But the other side of this is how suspicious one has to be... Bonds and Clemens are houses on fire. Pettite, Sheffield, Kevin Brown.... lotsa smoke. But Bagwell had the whispers and got in. So voters already are making judgements of credibility that might err one way or the other. I lean more and more to saying short of a failed test, judge them in the context of their day. That, to me, still excludes a bunch of guys like McGuire, Sosa, Brown.
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