Trading for bad contracts to get prospects

Yeah they're not getting a prospect at the level of Alek Thomas for just taking on a contract. And likely not Walston either.

As much as we've all salivated at the thought of getting free prospects for taking on a bad contract, where's the precedent? Maybe I'm forgetting something obvious, but the precedent, if the player is still useful, is that they wouldn't need to give much of anything up. The only deal that comes to mind is the Touki deal, but Arroyo's contract was literally just dead money at that point - I vaguely remember the Braves immediately releasing him.

If you're thinking is "let's trade for this useful major leaguer because he's got a big contract," you shouldn't follow with "and they'll give the Red Sox a top 50 prospect to take him."

You're gonna have to find that one for me. I can't find it searching his timeline or anyone I follow, there's no discussion of it on the forum I can find, and there's nothing about that on MLBTR.

Dbacks could give up half their farm along with MadBum and I'd still want nothing to do with that trade/contract. Like Rosenthal says contracts like that is why the sox are in the mess of the last year and a half.

Link: theathletic.com/2231780/2020/12/01/rosenthal-red-sox-in-position-to-get-creative-decision-on-pham-nats-future/

Yeah, that's very different. He's clearly speculating ("probably").

I also hadn't realized it was 4/79 remaining, although it's "only" a 17m AAV on the 5/85 deal. I don't think they'd get Thomas still, but if they took the whole thing they could probably get a decent prospect. That said, that's a pretty steep price for a 31-34yo pitcher who's going to pass 2000 career innings this season and has basically been declining since 2016. Sign me up for signing Odorizzi to a much cheaper deal first.

Well, again, I don't think your "plus two top prospects" is realistic and even if it were, it depends on who they are - if we're talking guys like Robinson, Thomas, Perdomo, Carroll, then that's different than guys who are lower on their list.

In a vacuum, yes, I'd prefer Odorizzi at one more year at $13m than Bumgarner at 2 more years at $17m, so to me it'd turn entirely on whatever incentive they'd be given to take Bumgarner, and I'm more bearish on what that return would be than you. Bumgarner has thrown like 850 more MLB innings than Odorizzi despite the fact they're about the same age.

Like I said, and this is a serious question rather than a rhetorical one, other than the Touki deal, which I distinguished because it was to take entirely dead money, is there any kind of precedent for a deal like that?

Good pull, but I think this fits my point. While not quite Arroyo levels of being toast, Cozart was also basically dead money - he was released and he didn't even sign with anyone this year. So I'd put that deal in the Arroyo category.

If Cozart were still a serviceable, if grossly overpaid, MLB regular, I doubt a first-rounder goes with him. Players on bad contracts who are still serviceable don't get moved with stud prospects. It's when they cross the line into complete and total salary dumps when that happens. I don't think that's Bumgarner yet.

Yes, I've seen a large market team dump a top player to get out from under his contract. Look at the Nick Punto trade, in which the Red Sox packaged Gonzalez, who was still good while probably a bit overpaid, to get out from under Crawford's godawful deal and Beckett's bad deal. Hell, look at the Betts trade.

Now, will we see more of that this offseason than typical? Probably. Will we see teams giving away the future to get out from only slightly bad contracts for players who can still help them? No. Look at the Darvish deal you cite to - they didn't package him with Brennan Davis to be rid of him, but rather got a halfway decent return.

Reportedly, the Snakes lost $100mm in 2020, and are expected to lose $30-$50 in 2021.  Also, are noted to have a budget of about $10mm to work with this off-season.  It all boils down to how motivated they are to shed payroll and have some financial flexibility to make some moves. If I’m in Hazen’s Shoes, moving Madbum is my top priority.  

What’s his value?  First off, no team is paying $79mm over four years.  I don’t think he gets a four year deal in today’s market.  I think he falls in the Odorizzi category 3/$36, at best.  They would need to pay half of his remaining contract to get it down to his actual worth, which would save them close to $10mm per year.  IMO, even if they add a couple of top prospects, I don’t think a team takes on all of his remaining salary. 

From the Sox perspective, I’d want the Snakes to pay a minimum of $28mm of his deal.  His current AAV is $17mm, so that would bring it down to $10mm over the remaining four years, which is about what he’s worth.  That saves the Snakes $51mm.  If I’m the Sox, I’m still not making that deal without a couple of top prospects.  Again, it all comes down to how bad Arizona wants to slash payroll. 

...continuing the thought... If the small market Pirates were to field an all AAA team as their mlb team, would they loose less money as their attendance was low anyway, or would a large amount of spending be offset by large crowds in the stadium? If fans can not or will not come back to the ball parks, then i would argue that some or even many teams will simply put cheap AAA filled teams on the field. If the teams are loosing money they simply can not afford high priced players.

This will have the resulting effect of drive down the price on free agents as teams do not have the money to spend. Think about the 2007 housing crisis as owner of homes walked away from their homes that were defaulting. If you do not have the money to spend you can not spend it. Teams losing money will not spend on free agents causing lower demand and lower free agent salaries. Bloom like every other GM is smart to wait out the market. The players need the teams more than the teams need the players. The teams can simply play AAA players!!!

Marte makes only 15 million over the next 2 seasons combined. He finished 4th in MVP in 2019. He'd be forth on the Sox this year in WAR. They have money issues but not that severe.

theathletic.com/2095519/2020/09/26/arizona-ceo-derrick-hall-on-payroll-the-pandemic-and-what-went-awry-this-year/
The D-Backs are definitely shedding salary so the Sox should be in on Marte. The owner said it would be a "stretch" to have the same payroll as last year.

I'll just add that to the post. Marte is one of the only movable contracts they have. I don’t know how else they shed salary. There's talk here about moving Bumgardner, but that's one of the most immovable contracts around right now.

Yeah I agree. Perfect leadoff hitter. Drops Verdugo to the 2 hole and you got speed on base for JDM, Xander, and Devers. Love the idea. I'd give up Dalbec in a minute for him too.