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Red Sox FA Target: Kiké Hernandez (Update: Signed)
nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 22, 2021 21:00:28 GMT -5
I'd say this takes them out of the hunt for jbj. They must have alot of trust in the sp depth we have. Lol dude we have been done with JBJ for 3 years. If anyone wanted him he’d have been gone a while ago
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 22, 2021 21:04:11 GMT -5
He was -0.1 fWAR last year in 48 games, and 1.2 fWAR in 130 games the year before that. Had a strong 2018, but it's clear that's an outlier season in his career. I also get visions of him becoming Cora's new Eduardo Nunez (because energy or something!), overused and playing against every right handed pitcher despite struggling to hit against them. Mehhhh, rather have spent our limited money somewhere else. For what ever reason Fwar didn’t like his defence last year. Who’s BRwar 1.0. Still 29 years old
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Post by Guidas on Jan 22, 2021 21:04:28 GMT -5
Would’ve much rather have signed La Stella
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 22, 2021 21:04:44 GMT -5
He was -0.1 fWAR last year in 48 games, and 1.2 fWAR in 130 games the year before that. Had a strong 2018, but it's clear that's an outlier season in his career. I also get visions of him becoming Cora's new Eduardo Nunez (because energy or something!), overused and playing against every right handed pitcher despite struggling to hit against them. Mehhhh, rather have spent our limited money somewhere else. Probably more similar to a right handed hitting brock holt to me. I don't see the Nunez comparison because Hernandez can actually field. Nunez was a butcher no matter where he was playing.
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Post by manfred on Jan 22, 2021 21:06:37 GMT -5
Hey!... ah, forget it. It’s not even fun anymore.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 22, 2021 21:07:41 GMT -5
Edit: eliminated the inflated bWAR figures.
I'm still trying to figure out if Arroyo has a place on a team where Kiké plays a lot of 2B. Let's see... Arroyo starts against 3/4 of the RHP and Kiké start against the rest and all the LHP .... that's 80 starts at 2B for Kiké. He's started about 60 there for the Dodgers the last two years, with about 35 games elsewhere.
But that eliminates the option of using Hernandez in the OF against LHP. Again, it comes back to just how good Arroyo would be in this platoon.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 22, 2021 21:07:55 GMT -5
Would’ve much rather have signed La Stella They still can. Hernandez ability to play infield or outfield keeps the door open for a guy like la Stella to be the lefty in a 2nd base platoon.
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Post by manfred on Jan 22, 2021 21:22:12 GMT -5
Kiké got 460 PA a year in 2018 and 2019, and was on a pace for 400 last year. Call it 440 on average.
So what's he averaged in WAR? 2.8. As a utility guy. That's 4.1 per 650 PA.
They paid $2.5M per win. Less if they use him more than LA did.
He's an above average starter at 2B and in CF. That's the only reason he's called a utility guy. The only reason he's been averaging 440 PA per year is that he's played on a team with good players up to the eyeballs and has a big platoon split.
I'm still trying to figure out if Arroyo has a place on a team where Kiké plays a lot of 2B. Let's see... Arroyo starts against 3/4 of the RHP and Kiké start against the rest and all the LHP .... that's 80 starts at 2B for Kiké. He's started about 60 there for the Dodgers the last two years, with about 35 games elsewhere.
But that eliminates the option of using Hernandez in the OF against LHP. Again, it comes back to just how good Arroyo would be in this platoon.
Two quick things: 1) if he is being used selectively, canât we assume a *decline* in performance over a more extended stretch. That is, if a platoon player has a 2.0 WAR, one can assume playing him full time wonât make him a 4.0 player.... indeed it might hurt his WAR as he faces lefty/lefty or whatever matchups.. Heâs been used to maximum effect. More use would likely produce diminishing returns. (I am not sure you are doing this, so just a question of clarity). 2) His bWAR is a little suspicious. In 2019, he was a 2.2 bWAR... but he is as a 1.6 dWAR, more than 4x higher than the year before. But that also means that outside of a potentially fluky 2018, heâs been a not-very-good hitter. To me, it looks like if they have him play CF, he is a downgrade on both sides from JBJ; if they play him at 2B, he might be a defensive upgrade, but he is as much of an offensive crapshoot as what we have.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 22, 2021 21:40:27 GMT -5
He was -0.1 fWAR last year in 48 games, and 1.2 fWAR in 130 games the year before that. Had a strong 2018, but it's clear that's an outlier season in his career. I also get visions of him becoming Cora's new Eduardo Nunez (because energy or something!), overused and playing against every right handed pitcher despite struggling to hit against them. Mehhhh, rather have spent our limited money somewhere else. UZR has him too low on defense, DRS has him way too high. Using Statcast for plays made, I get the following WAR per 650 PA: 4.4, 1.4, 1.8.
That projects to 2.3, or 1.6 to 1.8 for the amount of PT he's likely to get.
So they paid about 4$M a win, maybe $5M at most, but that excludes the versatility, which has real value.
Of course, now that they've outbid everyone else to get the best guy of his type, people are complaining anyway.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 22, 2021 22:17:05 GMT -5
I'm very afraid as someone who has to do this that we're not even going to be able to evaluate this offseason until we see what the plan is a few weeks in.
Hernandez is going to play a lot of 2B but also some outfield. It's yet another signing that you can only really judge based on what else they do. Which is fine, I just want to know what the plan is (no, Chaim didn't tell us).
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 22, 2021 22:18:06 GMT -5
He was -0.1 fWAR last year in 48 games, and 1.2 fWAR in 130 games the year before that. Had a strong 2018, but it's clear that's an outlier season in his career. I also get visions of him becoming Cora's new Eduardo Nunez (because energy or something!), overused and playing against every right handed pitcher despite struggling to hit against them. Mehhhh, rather have spent our limited money somewhere else. UZR has him too low on defense, DRS has him way too high. Using Statcast for plays made, I get the following WAR per 650 PA: 4.4, 1.4, 1.8.
That projects to 2.3, or 1.6 to 1.8 for the amount of PT he's likely to get.
So they paid about 4$M a win, maybe $5M at most, but that excludes the versatility, which has real value.
Of course, now that they've outbid everyone else to get the best guy of his type, people are complaining anyway.
In comparison JBJ in the last 4 years is about a 2fwar or 2.4bwar player. Basicly a full time player.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 22, 2021 22:21:19 GMT -5
Wonder if this means we could see one of Arroyo/Chavis/Munoz being DFA'd or packaged in a trade in the coming weeks. Unless the plan is for Hernandez to primarily be CFer instead of 2B, which I hope is not the case (would mean no JBJ). I realy canât see bringing JBJ back. Pretty much goes against what the FO is trying to accomplish. Iâd say verdugo In CF and Kiki some late inning double switches outing Verdugo in RF Yeah JBJ is as good as gone. I see Kiké a full-time CF right now for this team. Renfroe could be the new LF when/if Benintendi is traded. Might mean the Sox pickup another backup outfielder, however. Joc Pederson in LF sounds great now if the Sox can get him. Platoon with Renfroe.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 22, 2021 22:30:25 GMT -5
He was -0.1 fWAR last year in 48 games, and 1.2 fWAR in 130 games the year before that. Had a strong 2018, but it's clear that's an outlier season in his career. I also get visions of him becoming Cora's new Eduardo Nunez (because energy or something!), overused and playing against every right handed pitcher despite struggling to hit against them. Mehhhh, rather have spent our limited money somewhere else. Nunez is a good comp here. And there’s no reason to pay $7m/year for that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 22, 2021 22:32:26 GMT -5
I'm not sure I understand the thinking that because the Red Sox signed Hernandez, they're done for the winter. They had 4 pairs of needs and they've filled in half of each pair; in the first 3 pairs, the lesser need.
SP: SP: Perez
CF: 2B: Hernandez *
Cl:
Setup: Andriese *
RH OF: Renfroe LH 1B:
* Can fill another of the needs.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 22, 2021 22:35:49 GMT -5
Would’ve much rather have signed La Stella I guess I agree, but it barely matters. Bloom and the front office aren’t trying to win this year. Bloom wants to take his sweet time, build a beast farm while rebuilding, look smart while finally winning, then move on like his predecessors Theo and Ben.
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Post by manfred on Jan 22, 2021 22:45:00 GMT -5
He was -0.1 fWAR last year in 48 games, and 1.2 fWAR in 130 games the year before that. Had a strong 2018, but it's clear that's an outlier season in his career. I also get visions of him becoming Cora's new Eduardo Nunez (because energy or something!), overused and playing against every right handed pitcher despite struggling to hit against them. Mehhhh, rather have spent our limited money somewhere else. Nunez is a good comp here. And there’s no reason to pay $7m/year for that. I’m not thrilled with the signing, but this seems unfair... I believe Hernandez will at least be a good fielder. Nunez was a butcher. If this were/ if it is for a supersub, it seems solid. A guy who can actually play 2B or OF — not just stand there in an emergency — has great value. And yes, as Chris says, it won’t be entirely clear until the plan fully materializes. Buuuttt... it does seem the *pattern* is to get cheap, part-timers to plug in to vacant slots. No one they’ve signed really suggests the team will be better. Perez replaces, er, Perez. At the moment, Hernandez would team with Renfroe to make up for JBJ. Andriese is the restock from selling Hembree and Workman. If the plan is not explicitly capitulation, I think we can at least read between the lines. And again... it isn’t over. But if you look at what is available, there are not many options left. So we could say it is capitulation from necessity. There are very few upgrades left, and there is no reason to splurge on Realmuto or Bauer. In short, I’m fine with capitulation, but I don’t want to pretend we should be optimistic for this season. The real question is if these moves result in getting us in a better position this time next year. Or is this just wheel spinning. Add: I wrote in another post, and should add here: their pitching depth is better. Houck, Pivetta, and Seabold are at least possible parts of a future in a way yhat last year’s back end retreads were not. That is a big deal, of course.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 22, 2021 22:58:24 GMT -5
I don’t get this signing. He is a journey man type player. The Red Sox are not likely going to contend for a playoff spot for 2021. Why waste salary on Hernandez vs taking a salary dump such as Myers, with the Red Sox assuming some salary to acquire a cost controlled starting pitching prospect. Hernandez does not block Duran in CF, Downs at 2B, or a trade for a SS if the Red Sox move Bogaerts to 3B, because he can play so many different positions.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 22, 2021 23:03:02 GMT -5
I don’t get this signing. He is a journey man type player. The Red Sox are not likely going to contend for a playoff spot for 2021. Why waste salary on Hernandez vs taking a salary dump such as Myers, with the Red Sox assuming some salary to acquire a cost controlled starting pitching prospect. The whole taking on salary from a team in order to acquire prospects has been talked about ad nauseum for two offseasons now. It really doesn't happen often and probably isn't really an option. Not to mention Myers was a pretty solid player last year and I dont see the incentive for the Padres to attach a good prospect to get rid of him anymore.
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Post by soxstan96 on Jan 22, 2021 23:20:07 GMT -5
Rosenthal is reporting that the Hernandez contract includes deferrals. Strange considering it's only 14mil, but I guess that's just how the FO operates in 2021..
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 22, 2021 23:25:00 GMT -5
Rosenthal is reporting that the Hernandez contract includes deferrals. Strange considering it's only 14mil, but I guess that's just how the FO operates in 2021.. Probably because of the loss of revenues in 2020 and 2021. There's no fans in the stands, remember. I'm surprised more teams haven't done this.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 22, 2021 23:31:05 GMT -5
He was -0.1 fWAR last year in 48 games, and 1.2 fWAR in 130 games the year before that. Had a strong 2018, but it's clear that's an outlier season in his career. I also get visions of him becoming Cora's new Eduardo Nunez (because energy or something!), overused and playing against every right handed pitcher despite struggling to hit against them. Mehhhh, rather have spent our limited money somewhere else. Good heavens, there is no chance this will be anything like Nunez! Please recall: Nunez was absolutely atrocious. -1.3 fWAR and -2.8 bWAR in 2018-19 for the Red Sox.
Not only were his numbers bad, he looked terrible. Nothing subtle or tricky about it - you could see his badness as plain as day.
And not only was he terrible, he was an incredibly annoying player. He regularly failed in the three ways that, in my opinion, are the most annoying ways for a baseball player to fail: bad at-bats, bad errors, stupid baserunning mistakes.
Hernandez is guaranteed to be infinitely better than Nunez. Brock Holt is the much better comparison - average hitter, solid defense, and versatility that helps the team in a way that goes beyond his box score numbers.
Like Chris said, it's impossible to judge without seeing how it fits into the bigger picture. But it's another move that shows Bloom investing in the area that Dombrowski most conspicuously failed at: filling out the full 25-man roster, not just signing half a dozen superstars and letting the rest work itself out. That approach, after all, is how we got Eduardo Nunez.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 22, 2021 23:32:53 GMT -5
Nunez is a good comp here. And there’s no reason to pay $7m/year for that. I’m not thrilled with the signing, but this seems unfair... I believe Hernandez will at least be a good fielder. Nunez was a butcher. If this were/ if it is for a supersub, it seems solid. A guy who can actually play 2B or OF — not just stand there in an emergency — has great value. And yes, as Chris says, it won’t be entirely clear until the plan fully materializes. Buuuttt... it does seem the *pattern* is to get cheap, part-timers to plug in to vacant slots. No one they’ve signed really suggests the team will be better. Perez replaces, er, Perez. At the moment, Hernandez would team with Renfroe to make up for JBJ. Andriese is the restock from selling Hembree and Workman. If the plan is not explicitly capitulation, I think we can at least read between the lines. And again... it isn’t over. But if you look at what is available, there are not many options left. So we could say it is capitulation from necessity. There are very few upgrades left, and there is no reason to splurge on Realmuto or Bauer. In short, I’m fine with capitulation, but I don’t want to pretend we should be optimistic for this season. The real question is if these moves result in getting us in a better position this time next year. Or is this just wheel spinning. The moves Bloom has made give Duran, Downs, Casas, Seabold part of this season to finish development and get some experience ahead of next year, and it give the FO time to evaluate the players they have. The players signed add depth to the mlb team as well. If the depth is there then in next year's offseason the Red Sox can add the big ticket final pieces if they feel close enough. It makes sense. DD in Detroit added great starting pitchers and stars like Miguel Cabrera, but did not win the WS, because he failed to add depth to the bullpen and regulars. Bloom has added players with position versatility to mold around the players he has and will bring up from the farm. The players he has signed are like putty to fill in the holes wherever they might be.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 22, 2021 23:36:13 GMT -5
I don’t get this signing. He is a journey man type player. The Red Sox are not likely going to contend for a playoff spot for 2021. Why waste salary on Hernandez vs taking a salary dump such as Myers, with the Red Sox assuming some salary to acquire a cost controlled starting pitching prospect. The whole taking on salary from a team in order to acquire prospects has been talked about ad nauseum for two offseasons now. It really doesn't happen often and probably isn't really an option. Not to mention Myers was a pretty solid player last year and I dont see the incentive for the Padres to attach a good prospect to get rid of him anymore. He's basically been a 2 WAR/150 player over the past three seasons. His $14 million/year salary isn't even an overpay.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 22, 2021 23:39:06 GMT -5
Nunez is a good comp here. And there’s no reason to pay $7m/year for that. I’m not thrilled with the signing, but this seems unfair... I believe Hernandez will at least be a good fielder. Nunez was a butcher. If this were/ if it is for a supersub, it seems solid. A guy who can actually play 2B or OF — not just stand there in an emergency — has great value. And yes, as Chris says, it won’t be entirely clear until the plan fully materializes. Buuuttt... it does seem the *pattern* is to get cheap, part-timers to plug in to vacant slots. No one they’ve signed really suggests the team will be better. Perez replaces, er, Perez. At the moment, Hernandez would team with Renfroe to make up for JBJ. Andriese is the restock from selling Hembree and Workman. If the plan is not explicitly capitulation, I think we can at least read between the lines. And again... it isn’t over. But if you look at what is available, there are not many options left. So we could say it is capitulation from necessity. There are very few upgrades left, and there is no reason to splurge on Realmuto or Bauer. In short, I’m fine with capitulation, but I don’t want to pretend we should be optimistic for this season. The real question is if these moves result in getting us in a better position this time next year. Or is this just wheel spinning. Add: I wrote in another post, and should add here: their pitching depth is better. Houck, Pivetta, and Seabold are at least possible parts of a future in a way yhat last year’s back end retreads were not. That is a big deal, of course. Nunez and Hernandez aren’t comparable in terms of skill-set. Hernandez is obviously far superior defensively. I meant that both are considered “spark plug” types and good locker room guys. He’s the kind of player that a good team adds to round out the roster(essentially what he was in LA). He’ll get you a clutch AB off the bench and fire up the team etc... But the Red Sox really don’t need a guy like that at the moment. If he takes AB’s from the dreadful Chavis, I’m fine with that. But there were plenty of guys out there that would have been an upgrade over Chavis...and would have been less expensive, too. I would have preferred to make the big FA splurge on some pitching instead. Especially with the lineups NYY and TOR will be running out there this year.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 22, 2021 23:43:26 GMT -5
I don’t get this signing. He is a journey man type player. The Red Sox are not likely going to contend for a playoff spot for 2021. Why waste salary on Hernandez vs taking a salary dump such as Myers, with the Red Sox assuming some salary to acquire a cost controlled starting pitching prospect. The whole taking on salary from a team in order to acquire prospects has been talked about ad nauseum for two offseasons now. It really doesn't happen often and probably isn't really an option. Not to mention Myers was a pretty solid player last year and I dont see the incentive for the Padres to attach a good prospect to get rid of him anymore. Agreed. This whole “Wil Myers salary dump” scenario has been beaten to death for years now. The Padres are actually going for it and Myers had a .959OPS last year. Why would a contending team be looking to dump a guy like that?
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