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Red Sox FA Target: Kiké Hernandez (Update: Signed)
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 3, 2021 3:19:52 GMT -5
I have no idea what this debate is about.
They needed a utility guy. If they thought Arroyo was good and interesting enough to get significant PT at 2B for a year while they wait on Jeter Downs, then they wanted a guy who could hit LHP and platoon with him, since Arroyo has (despite the small sample sizes) had a reverse split every year going back to all but one of his minor league seasons. Ideally he's a guy who can not only be your backup MI, but play CF so well that he gives you a defense-first 4th OF option, plus the chance to platoon two OF at once depending on the pitcher, and so on. Hernandez fits that description. He fits it so well that he was on my "guys I would sign if it's not my money" list.
Based on their xwOBA by handedness the last 3 years, the Arroyo / Hernandez platoon would rank 13th of 30 qualifying 2B in 2019. The utility guy that gives you huge flexibility also likely upgrades you at 2B to league-average or a bit above, and it's quite possible that they see upside in one or both of these guys.
In terms of criticizing the amount of the contract, at this salary level I just find that silly. Anyone who does so is outnumbered by at least two GMs who have orders of magnitude more information than you do. It's perfectly legitimate for fans to debate the wisdom of an overall payroll strategy, but complaining that a $7M AAV was a few million too high, as if you know better than the GM's who have evaluated the player, is like ... something not worth constructing a clever analogy for, just one that is self-referential. You can certainly be surprised that a player got what he got, but if you're not making an argument that he will perform differently than expected by the GM's -- which is very tough -- all you can really say is "well, I guess that's what he's worth."
(I have no problem with a response like "I just don't like the guy" or "I have a gut feeling his bad 2020 was the start of a decline," but I balk when someone essentially takes a response like that and dresses it up in a cloak of supposed rational evaluation.)
And an argument that they should have spent that money on a different need cannot be made until they're done acquiring players.
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Feb 3, 2021 10:41:06 GMT -5
Wong is unsigned, so not that much clamor. You know who has a gold glove? Jackie Bradley Jr. i donât think it is weird to look at a team with many deficiencies and think it is strange that a utilityman is the big FA splash, especially when he appears to be set to play a) in a position that was well-manned but you let the guy go; or b) at a position where it is not crazy to think a young, cheap in-house option would not be a real step down. It is fine to think this was a good signing, but I responded to you sneering at a rookie poster whose position was entirely defensible. Yeah because âheâs redundant everywhereâ, Kevin pillar is better and cheaper despite not having a better WAR since 2017 (when Pillar had a good season this year and Enrique apparently was garbage), and citing batting average as a reason a guy sucks are all defensible lol As for Wong Iâm talking about among Red Sox fans. I saw plenty of them wanting to take a look at Wong to fill the 2B hole. Also Garrett Richards makes more AAV with an option and is the #3 starter. Heâs a bigger signing. And also complaining about us not making a huge free agency splash in a year where it would be completely useless for us to do it is weird to me. Yâall want us to go over the luxury tax threshold to not open a window this year so we have to reset a year earlier? Makes no sense The hilarious thing is calling him redundant at 2B and then ripping him for hitting .240 while the guy that Is apparently impressive and makes him redundant (Arroyo) HIT EXACTLY .240 LAST YEAR WITH LESS GLOVE AND LESS FLEXIBILITY its fine if you dont care about batting average, as other posters pointed out if you want to use oWAR hes still not very good. I still like batting average because guys with low averages kill rallies. Not everything needs to be entirely new wave stats based to be valuable. I was arguing more for chavis not arroyo, as i know he's not great defensively but hes showed potential with the bat and is much younger. in a throwaway year like this one will be id rather give the shot to the young guy with potential than the guy thats proved his whole career to be average. I could care less about the money on his contract the red sox can afford it, i care more that theres people getting all excited over a utility player being our biggest signing of the offseason. whether you agree or not he is redundant, he plays all the OF positions, 3b and 2b, benintendi > kiki, JBJ(hoping he comes back)>kiki, verdugo>kiki, raffy>>>>kiki, and you just signed renfroe to be the corner righty platoon bat which is the only other spot i wouldve seen the value in having Kiké. the only spot he has a shot at is 2nd and as i already said we had in house options that would be better off for the team giving a chance
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 3, 2021 11:02:21 GMT -5
Don't agree that Hernandez made anyone redundant. Arroyo and Chavis already made each other redundant. As Eric and I debated early in the offseason, a bench with both of them didn't make sense (I believe that was his point, and he was right). Look at the end of 2020 - there was only room for both because Chavis was out in left, and that was on a team that was out of contention and playing out the stretch. Hernandez adds outfield versatility that neither of them (really) has, and we always projected there would be some kind of second base addition to at least compete with Arroyo, if not relegate him to a bench role outright. Let Chavis play every day in Worcester and rebuild value, whether to the team or in a trade. I don't see the problem with that. And if he comes into camp and grossly outplays Arroyo, then fine, move on from Arroyo. It's still just Christian Arroyo. Who, by the way, we still don't know anything about - he had a full 14-game sample last year. Two weeks' worth of games. www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=arroych01&t=b&year=2020The idea that Hernandez is only a marginal upgrade on Arroyo doesn't make sense to me. Hernandez plays 3 positions Arroyo doesn't and has actually held down a major league job for long enough to reach free agency. Arroyo has never done that. One is a major league player. The other has bounced around the waiver wire.
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Post by manfred on Feb 3, 2021 11:19:35 GMT -5
I have no idea what this debate is about.
They needed a utility guy. If they thought Arroyo was good and interesting enough to get significant PT at 2B for a year while they wait on Jeter Downs, then they wanted a guy who could hit LHP and platoon with him, since Arroyo has (despite the small sample sizes) had a reverse split every year going back to all but one of his minor league seasons. Ideally he's a guy who can not only be your backup MI, but play CF so well that he gives you a defense-first 4th OF option, plus the chance to platoon two OF at once depending on the pitcher, and so on. Hernandez fits that description. He fits it so well that he was on my "guys I would sign if it's not my money" list.
Based on their xwOBA by handedness the last 3 years, the Arroyo / Hernandez platoon would rank 13th of 30 qualifying 2B in 2019. The utility guy that gives you huge flexibility also likely upgrades you at 2B to league-average or a bit above, and it's quite possible that they see upside in one or both of these guys.
In terms of criticizing the amount of the contract, at this salary level I just find that silly. Anyone who does so is outnumbered by at least two GMs who have orders of magnitude more information than you do. It's perfectly legitimate for fans to debate the wisdom of an overall payroll strategy, but complaining that a $7M AAV was a few million too high, as if you know better than the GM's who have evaluated the player, is like ... something not worth constructing a clever analogy for, just one that is self-referential. You can certainly be surprised that a player got what he got, but if you're not making an argument that he will perform differently than expected by the GM's -- which is very tough -- all you can really say is "well, I guess that's what he's worth."
(I have no problem with a response like "I just don't like the guy" or "I have a gut feeling his bad 2020 was the start of a decline," but I balk when someone essentially takes a response like that and dresses it up in a cloak of supposed rational evaluation.)
And an argument that they should have spent that money on a different need cannot be made until they're done acquiring players.
But you can complain that even your assessment contains part of the problem: you are at once (as he did) leaning into him playing significant time as a 2b.... effectively, he slots in as the starting 2b.... and calling him a utilityman. My beef is that they went in for 1/2 a 2b and 1/2 a cf... *giving up* their whole CF... making it dubious in terms of value added. I think it is entirely fair to view it as a portion of the whole of the offseason. Why is a utilityman your big get (especially as you let your CF walk?). Now... big picture, I agree that it is not a huge contract and this not a huge deal. Except they are deep into postseason two of what appears to be a period of parsimony. So if (as it appears) they are at least making an extreme effort to avoid the tax line, those $7 million actually do matter. It is not 7 out of infinity. It is 7 out of about $30 mill, which is a big portion. Then the question is very fair to ask — given *limited* resources, was this the move to make, and is the upgrade substantial enough to make the investment worth it. If you go back to the beginning, you’ll note that it is not a black and white argument. I and others say it is not a great move, but agree it is debatable. We are responding not so much to a defense of the move but to the idea that it can’t be supported that it is a bad move. Give me a break. And falling back on the pseudomystical, Rumsfeldian we don’t know what known knowns and unknown unknowns and known unknowns FOs do so we have to assume they know better.... well at that point we must all love Big Brother and assume every move is good because of what we don’t know. Finally the “that’s what he’s worth” argument is poor, too, because, well, again, it assumes they are paid for future performance and salaries never err. I guess the Sox paid Panda what he was worth! Or — take Nelson Cruz. He GOT $13 million. But is he worth that? Not to a team that doesn’t need a DH. So price is not a real measure of things. Unless, again, you assume GMs to be infallible, in which case, again, Hanley got what he was worth and plugging him into LF was a stroke of genius.
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Post by manfred on Feb 3, 2021 14:15:12 GMT -5
Wong now on the books. This I’ll definitely say: relative to Wong’s deal, Kiké’s is definitely good. $2 mill less a year for a guy who is really not much less a 2b. I’m not down with $9 mill for a weak bat, 30-year old 2b, even if he is great defensively.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 3, 2021 14:24:17 GMT -5
I have no idea what this debate is about.
They needed a utility guy. If they thought Arroyo was good and interesting enough to get significant PT at 2B for a year while they wait on Jeter Downs, then they wanted a guy who could hit LHP and platoon with him, since Arroyo has (despite the small sample sizes) had a reverse split every year going back to all but one of his minor league seasons. Ideally he's a guy who can not only be your backup MI, but play CF so well that he gives you a defense-first 4th OF option, plus the chance to platoon two OF at once depending on the pitcher, and so on. Hernandez fits that description. He fits it so well that he was on my "guys I would sign if it's not my money" list.
Based on their xwOBA by handedness the last 3 years, the Arroyo / Hernandez platoon would rank 13th of 30 qualifying 2B in 2019. The utility guy that gives you huge flexibility also likely upgrades you at 2B to league-average or a bit above, and it's quite possible that they see upside in one or both of these guys.
In terms of criticizing the amount of the contract, at this salary level I just find that silly. Anyone who does so is outnumbered by at least two GMs who have orders of magnitude more information than you do. It's perfectly legitimate for fans to debate the wisdom of an overall payroll strategy, but complaining that a $7M AAV was a few million too high, as if you know better than the GM's who have evaluated the player, is like ... something not worth constructing a clever analogy for, just one that is self-referential. You can certainly be surprised that a player got what he got, but if you're not making an argument that he will perform differently than expected by the GM's -- which is very tough -- all you can really say is "well, I guess that's what he's worth."
(I have no problem with a response like "I just don't like the guy" or "I have a gut feeling his bad 2020 was the start of a decline," but I balk when someone essentially takes a response like that and dresses it up in a cloak of supposed rational evaluation.)
And an argument that they should have spent that money on a different need cannot be made until they're done acquiring players.
But you can complain that even your assessment contains part of the problem: you are at once (as he did) leaning into him playing significant time as a 2b.... effectively, he slots in as the starting 2b.... and calling him a utilityman. My beef is that they went in for 1/2 a 2b and 1/2 a cf... *giving up* their whole CF... making it dubious in terms of value added. I think it is entirely fair to view it as a portion of the whole of the offseason. Why is a utilityman your big get (especially as you let your CF walk?). Now... big picture, I agree that it is not a huge contract and this not a huge deal. Except they are deep into postseason two of what appears to be a period of parsimony. So if (as it appears) they are at least making an extreme effort to avoid the tax line, those $7 million actually do matter. It is not 7 out of infinity. It is 7 out of about $30 mill, which is a big portion. Then the question is very fair to ask — given *limited* resources, was this the move to make, and is the upgrade substantial enough to make the investment worth it. If you go back to the beginning, you’ll note that it is not a black and white argument. I and others say it is not a great move, but agree it is debatable. We are responding not so much to a defense of the move but to the idea that it can’t be supported that it is a bad move. Give me a break. And falling back on the pseudomystical, Rumsfeldian we don’t know what known knowns and unknown unknowns and known unknowns FOs do so we have to assume they know better.... well at that point we must all love Big Brother and assume every move is good because of what we don’t know. Finally the “that’s what he’s worth” argument is poor, too, because, well, again, it assumes they are paid for future performance and salaries never err. I guess the Sox paid Panda what he was worth! Or — take Nelson Cruz. He GOT $13 million. But is he worth that? Not to a team that doesn’t need a DH. So price is not a real measure of things. Unless, again, you assume GMs to be infallible, in which case, again, Hanley got what he was worth and plugging him into LF was a stroke of genius. I just don't understand how Hernandez who got 7 million is the big signing over Richards who got 10 million. Our GM is on record saying he has no mandate to stay under. How does the fact a "part time" player who has 6.5 bwar versus Bradley's 6.1 over the last three years make him a bad signing? Also don't for a second give me some crap about an outlier season when Bradley just had one in 2020. It's a bad signing because it stops us from paying an older player more money over more years when he adds less value? Yet that's a false narrative to begin with. How didn't we need Hernandez? Where's the guy that can do what he can do?
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 4, 2021 17:31:38 GMT -5
Kiké Hernandez had some reputable sources on what it was like playing in Boston for Alex Cora, and it appeared to help him make a decision. The Red Sox officially signed the infielder/outfielder to a two-year deal Tuesday after spending the last six seasons with the 2020 World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Hernandez has known Alex Cora for a while, but he didnât exactly know what it was like to play for him. Luckily, he could talk to Mookie Betts, Joe Kelly and David Price, who all spent time with Cora as their manager. âIt made my decision a lot easier to come in and have the opportunity to play for Alex,â Hernandez told reporters Tuesday. âIâve talked to Joe (Kelly), Mookie (Betts) and (David Price), and they all preach about Alex and what he brings to the table as a manager and how good of a communicator he is. Iâm just really, really excited to be able to play for a Puerto Rican manager.â Hernandez also spent a brief time getting to know Alex Verdugo before he was traded to Boston as part of the Betts deal. nesn.com/2021/02/Kiké-hernandez-consulted-former-red-sox-players-about-playing-for-alex-cora/
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 4, 2021 17:32:34 GMT -5
Looks like something is wrong with the filter.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 11, 2021 6:59:37 GMT -5
Kiké first 5 games versus last 3. Top line is actual, next line is expected. Last figure is wOBA.
.111 / .190 / .167 = .169 .185 / .244 / .344 = .269
.333 / .333 / .600 = .398 .413 / .413 / 1.004 = .582
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cdj
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Posts: 14,097
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Post by cdj on Apr 11, 2021 8:32:19 GMT -5
The bat is starting to get loud like it was all spring. I don’t expect a high average but if he keeps driving the ball like last night he’s going to be a very valuable player given his versatility and clubhouse presence
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