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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 5, 2021 13:06:36 GMT -5
Just getting a look at this guy. The swing is very noisy, but that's the sort of thing that can be cleaned up - hopefully while improving the contact rate also. I mean the kid is 17 so there's ample time for a few adjustments.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 5, 2021 13:51:27 GMT -5
So Benintendi has had 1 bad month and 1 good month and now he's an All-Star type player. If the months were reversed would the reaction be the same? I tend to doubt it, some of y'all shift with the wind. Once these guys get on the field and play well suddenly the consensus will be the trade is a win. How about we let things play out? I am fine with this trade, I will gladly take multiple young guys they can form and mold for a guy like Benintendi, who I think is a solid starting outfielder but not much more, when the team is playing better than expected and Renfroe is playing better than some expected. There were reports that the returns weren't going to be highly touted, they weren't, but there is potential there on top of Franchy and Wink, for a team that needed to restock the system, this deal is at the very least fair. Excellent post. You all do "shift with the wind". Musical coming!
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 5, 2021 14:02:34 GMT -5
Considering Renfro has played great D and had an OPS of 938 for May while Benny had an OPS of 821 I would say people don't realize how Hunter has turned it around. For the season Renfro 760, Benny 751 and Renfro has accounted for a few more runs. Funny how the commentary doesn't always represent the facts. I like Benny but I don't mind the trade either. I think in the long run the Soz will come out on top with some of the prospects contributing, we shall see. We had space for both Renfroe and Benintendi on the roster, it wasn’t one or the other so I don’t understand the need to bring up Renfroe’s #’s. You could argue that Beni even at his current pace would be a very valuable player for us considering just how little we’ve gotten from his replacements (Franchy/Santana). I consider Renfroe part of the whole equation in the OF that is why I included him even though he plays right. Can't argue that Benny hitting leadoff would be a benefit this year but would he be doing the same here as he is in KC, maybe but he did get off to a really bad start and maybe the pressure of Boston was part of his problem or maybe he needed a change of scenery. Their are many things that go into the decision to trade a guy and we can't possibly know them all. Maybe it doesn't work out in the Sox favor but I like the chances that it does.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 5, 2021 14:04:47 GMT -5
Lol. Thank GOD you and us are not!! Let's see what Beni does in June. I loved the guy, but I am glad we made an aggressive move and picked up some prospects who MAY be helpful down the road.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 5, 2021 14:15:59 GMT -5
Bloom or bust choice. He fits the profile of what the GM is trying to do. Get a bunch of these types in your organization and give them superior coaching. There will be a roster crunch come November, so you had to know Bloom was not going to trade for someone who would have been needed to go on the 40-man!!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 5, 2021 14:43:10 GMT -5
So Benintendi has had 1 bad month and 1 good month and now he's an All-Star type player. If the months were reversed would the reaction be the same? I tend to doubt it, some of y'all shift with the wind. Once these guys get on the field and play well suddenly the consensus will be the trade is a win. How about we let things play out? I am fine with this trade, I will gladly take multiple young guys they can form and mold for a guy like Benintendi, who I think is a solid starting outfielder but not much more, when the team is playing better than expected and Renfroe is playing better than some expected. There were reports that the returns weren't going to be highly touted, they weren't, but there is potential there on top of Franchy and Wink, for a team that needed to restock the system, this deal is at the very least fair. A lot of us were against the trade from the beginning actually, you can go back and look earlier in the thread. It looks slightly better now than it did back the with Ottavino and Renfroe doing OK I’d just rather they have kept Benny and maybe sold him at the deadline if they wanted to do that. By the time Duran is ready we’ll have had 3 months of really bad production from a corner OF spot.
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Post by jmanny24 on Jun 5, 2021 14:55:01 GMT -5
Excellent post. You all do "shift with the wind". Musical coming! Changing your mind when presented with new information is a sign of mental health. We're not politicians Well I am glad we are all in good mental health there is a difference between new information and knee-jerking to every month, game or at-bat as if that is what a player is going to be. A 5-for-1 deal (for the most part), for a player like Beni, with a system in the position it was before Bloom took over should be considered a win. As the sports adage goes, when you can you should take more than one bite at the apple. Bruins fans once thought Milan Lucic would score 30 every year after he did it in 2011, he never did it again. One good month doesn't make Benintendi the next great LFer.
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Post by tomhouse on Jun 5, 2021 15:04:02 GMT -5
While I’m sure it isn’t easy to calculate, I’m still surprised there isn’t an algorithm to assess the potential value of this trade.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 5, 2021 15:29:06 GMT -5
While I’m sure it isn’t easy to calculate, I’m still surprised there isn’t an algorithm to assess the potential value of this trade. Baseball trade values has 10.8 in value going out and 6.8 coming back to the Red Sox. 10.8 for Benintendi 3.3 for Winkowski 2.4 for Valdez .7 for Gambrell .3 for Cordero .1 for De La Rosa
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 5, 2021 15:45:47 GMT -5
While I’m sure it isn’t easy to calculate, I’m still surprised there isn’t an algorithm to assess the potential value of this trade. We don't need an algorithm to know we got hosed. It was always a bad idea to sell low on Benintendi. And that's not saying he is a star or anything like that.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 5, 2021 15:48:09 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure you got it right the first time. Signed on July 2nd of 2018 that would put 5 seasons at December 2022. Brainer Bonaci, for instance, is in the same boat (signed July 9th and eligible December 2022). There are occasional guys who sign late, or who's league doesn't exist that season (happened in Venezuela a while back), that skew the dates. But I don't see anything here to indicate that (although he didn't play until 2019). I was definitely reading "next year" as "this year." No idea why. Sorry about that. I still think this year is last year, so you're doing better than I am.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2021 15:57:17 GMT -5
Here are the batting stats, actual and expected, for all the Sox regulars when Franchy Cordero was in the game, starting May 5, through Friday's game. Xander, JDM, Marwin, and Devers are exact comps, as is the combined line for the catchers. The * are slightly inexact comps; Verdugo and Renfroe missed one game each (Arroyo and Kiké starting instead) and Dalbec three (Chavis twice and Kiké once). Anyone who saw the Sox lose a game because Eovaldi gave up 3 runs on back-to-back hits of 67 and 68 mph should understand that the expected stats are what you look at in sample sizes this small. In this case, all of Franchy's hits, actual and expected only, had EV's of 100+. Name PA BA OBP SA wOBA xBA xOBP xSA xwOBA Bogaerts, Xander 35 .319 .457 .529 .417 .356 .499 .549 .450 Cordero, Franchy 33 .182 .242 .303 .248 .300 .358 .461 .366 *Verdugo, Alex 37 .225 .270 .387 .292 .273 .310 .504 .348 Martinez, J.D. 40 .225 .300 .300 .280 .282 .350 .423 .347 Gonzalez, Marwin 40 .229 .275 .358 .268 .276 .322 .499 .342 Catchers 38 .206 .290 .355 .281 .213 .312 .450 .329 Devers, Rafael 36 .333 .389 .732 .468 .240 .300 .467 .324 *Dalbec, Bobby 23 .290 .304 .638 .377 .216 .243 .556 .319 *Vázquez, Christian 28 .161 .214 .304 .231 .170 .232 .331 .253 *Renfroe, Hunter 29 .138 .138 .310 .188 .189 .189 .403 .249 The Sox did put up a .345 xwOBA in these games, so the perception in the discussion in the game threads that the opposing pitching was somewhat weak is accurate. But the Sox xwOBA is .337 versus MLB .320 (including pitchers hitting; Statcast search doesn't have any filters for that), so the .345 allowed by opposing pitchers is just .008 worse than average.
There hasn't been any real change in his O-Swing% (.325 to .321 including yesterday), which is 15th percentile (based on the 251 guys with 90+ PA). But his Z-Contact has gone from .701 to .822, which is 6th worst (Dalbec is actually 4th worst) to 37th percentile. Plenty of successful sluggers in this neighborhood: JDM is .824. His O-Contact has gone from .366 to .444, a modest improvment, but that's not a stat that correlates that strongly with success. Couple of things: 1. Franchy's batting average over this interval was .194 (6 hits in 31 AB) not .182 (6 hits in 33 PA) 2. I'd buy into the idea that Franchy has had some bad luck very recently and is probably a little better than the numbers indicate, but with 8 strikeouts in 31 ABs he would have had to have a .405 BABIP to post the .300xBA you're suggesting he should have had. If your implication is that he should be on a bit more of a hot streak but is still on the lower end of the hitting spectrum then fine. If your implication is that this is who he is as a player I will point out that the highest single season BABIP since 1945 is .408 by Rod Carew. 3. While I'm glad to see that he's been on a bit of a hot streak his .501 OPS would be the 3rd worst amongst 153 qualifiers if he had enough ABs to qualify, coincidently just behind JBJ and his .523 OPS. Glad he's had some relative success recently and hope it continues, but still unswayed that AAA is where he belongs right now. Just noticed this reply (actually, last night ...)
I didn't "suggest he should have had " a .300 xBA. I reported that Statcast says he had a .300 xBA. Players who are locked in routinely have a .405 BABIP over 23 balls in play. It's 2 or 3 extra hits above average. In this case, it was legitimate.
Re your second point, no one in the history of baseball has ever looked at a 33 PA hot streak and said "this is how good the player is!!!" Why would I be the first? My point was that Statcast indicated that he had straightened out his problems.
In this table I reported that Franchy Coredero had been the second best hitter on the team, after Xander Bogaerts, in these games according to expected results.
After I did this study, he played two more games before being sent down.
How did he do in those games?
He was the third best hitter on the team, after Xander Bogaerts and Danny Santana, according to actual results. And Santana wasn't on the team in the previously measured period.
Now, this is actually luck; Franchy was 4th on the team in xwOBA, and Xander was fifth. But the point here is that in small sample sizes like these, expected stats are much more predictive than actual stats. They are a much better measure of how well a hitter was performing.
From that same post:
I do not cherry-pick this stuff. Everyone is raving about how hot Dalbec is now and I've pointed out that he's been lucky.
How did that work out?
The point of revisiting this is that there were people essentially mocking Franchy in the game thread for annihilating AAA pitching. But he's hitting exactly as you'd expect based on his .299 / .334 / .523 expected batting line put up in MLB in his last 12 games (10 starts) ... over 18 games played, and his .333 / .333 / .733 actual line in his last 4 MLB games (15 PA).
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Post by telson13 on Jun 5, 2021 16:07:43 GMT -5
Just getting a look at this guy. The swing is very noisy, but that's the sort of thing that can be cleaned up - hopefully while improving the contact rate also. I mean the kid is 17 so there's ample time for a few adjustments. I was thinking the same. He also isn't exactly a plodder, although I've seen allusions to it. He's listed 6'3" and 250#, and that looks a little aggressive on the weight end based on that video. It's not like he's a tree-trunk legged, John Kruk-belly guy. For a 19 y/o rookie-baller to be ranked in the top 20 means something, especially when his last actual pro ball was at 17. FG also has a bit of a disparity in the numerical grades versus discussion...Longenhagen describes him as having "thunderous raw power," although he's just got a 55 Raw. His BB:K rates were pretty solid too, and my hope is that they can coach a lot of that noise out and unlock some real game power and even some hitting ability (FG also has him as a future 50 Hit, which is quite good for a 19-y/o power prospect). I also like De La Rosa, given his pitchability despite lack of pitching experience. Would I take it back? Probably, but a significant part of that is homerism that I admit. I loved Beni as a pick and I genuinely believe there's a .320 hitter in there still. It's entirely possible that he just has to make adjustments and learn to hit MLB pitching in the same vein as Bogey and Buxton. That said, FA is coming and he wasn't (and still isn't) putting up numbers that can't be replaced relatively easily. Again, I'd have liked to see more confidence in him and maybe a little less tinkering, but it's not the worst move on a strictly baseball level, beyond the selling low aspect.
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Post by kcbosox on Jun 5, 2021 16:39:06 GMT -5
Was anyone going to pay 8+ million for Beni next year? ST was exactly optimistic either.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2021 16:56:03 GMT -5
Was anyone going to pay 8+ million for Beni next year? ST was exactly optimistic either. You mean $1 million more than Bloom’s paying Kiké?
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Post by dirtdog on Jun 5, 2021 16:57:49 GMT -5
The FO got what they wanted the second the trade was finalized which was to dump what appeared to a declining Benni and his salary. If any of these players amount to more than a hill of beans it is all gravy,
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 5, 2021 17:00:43 GMT -5
This trade also closes the books on the 2018 OF. In total, for that outfield they receive back:
Verdugo Downs Wong Franchy Wink Valdez De La Rosa Gambrell
Obviously a lot of cash freed up.
It is impossible to argue that is a win on talent. It is impossible to argue it is *not* a win on cash. Now they need to turn that cash into new (major league) talent.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2021 17:02:11 GMT -5
The FO got what they wanted the second the trade was finalized which was to dump what appeared to a declining Benni and his salary. If any of these players amount to more than a hill of beans it is all gravy, I disagree. I still think Benin’s WAR will be more than all these pick-ups put together. If thag proves out it’s a straight-up bad deal.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 5, 2021 17:15:14 GMT -5
The FO got what they wanted the second the trade was finalized which was to dump what appeared to a declining Benni and his salary. If any of these players amount to more than a hill of beans it is all gravy, I disagree. I still think Benin’s WAR will be more than all these pick-ups put together. If thag proves out it’s a straight-up bad deal. Is this career WAR going forward, or do you put a time frame on it (a la while they're with the Red Sox)? I'd take that bet on the "field" vs a non-superstar player, all things considered.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2021 17:15:38 GMT -5
One way to look at it: If you could take this trade back, would you? Or, would you rather have these prospects, or Benintendi at this moment in time? I would take this trade back 100%. They will win this trade massively in the long run.
Bloom's track record for identifying talent with upside and extracting it is already jaw-dropping. Nick Pivetta was essentially given away to us for nothing; I ran numbers and thought he had mouth-watering upside.
He signed Martin Perez and I thought he had serious upside. It was hard to see in 2020. He brought him back this year for $5M and, since there were so many seemingly more attractive candidates, I said that they must not be done extracting that upside. He's been the best of all the free agent starting pitchers so far -- the best in Win Probability Added per start and second best in bWAR per start, without missing a start.
Perez's overall numbers are startlingly good, but he had a 5.71 ERA over his first four starts, with an .803 OPS allowed. Since then, in 7 starts, he's 1.98 and .587.
It took exactly 81 team games to turn Perez into the player they thought he could be. And people are giving up on Franchy, whose tools are astounding, because he was awful for 30 days, demonstrably excellent but unlucky for another 10, and despite the fact that he's has been killing it ever since, including a 1.067 OPS in his last four games in MLB? Even if he were still struggling, just the fact that Bloom picked him up should give you hope.
They thought Hunter Renfroe could hit RHP well enough to be a regular instead of a 4th OFer / small half of a platoon.
The first month (27 games) he had 44 PA against RHP, 1.6 per game, and he hit .175 / .205 / .200 (expected .194 / .232 / .314).
Over the next 22 games he got 56 PA, 2.5 per game. He hit .200 / .214 / .455 (expected .200 / .215 / .431). A bit of occasional power ... well, that's an improvement.
Over the last 9 games he's had 21 PA vs. RHP, 2.3 per game, so a lot of lefties, too. He's hit .421 / .476 / .789 (expected .360 / .421 / .598). The combination of sample size and effect size tells you that some decent part of this is real ... and the fact that in this stretch he leads the team vs. RHP in wOBA, and is second in xwOBA to Verdugo, makes you feel even more confident. The team including Renfroe has hit just .212 / .273 / .369 (expected .239 / .298 / .443).
So it took Renfroe exactly 100 PA against RHP before he started hitting them well. (In addition to the SSS regression, the league will likely adjust to what he's doing differently). And people gave up on Franchy after 55 awful ones, to the point that nothing he does subsequently matters.
==
It's interesting to note that Winck was the one prospect they knew they wanted without needing to take an extra look at alternatives. How does that look so far?
I think we can say with some certainty that all three of the guys they just got are better than the scouting consensus.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2021 17:29:49 GMT -5
The FO got what they wanted the second the trade was finalized which was to dump what appeared to a declining Benni and his salary. If any of these players amount to more than a hill of beans it is all gravy, I disagree. I still think Benin’s WAR will be more than all these pick-ups put together. If thag proves out it’s a straight-up bad deal. Benny's on a pace to collect 4.2 WAR before he hits free agency. But he had a slow start ... can we say 6.5 to be generous? That would match 2017-2019.
They have six years of control left for each of four prospects, and 2 2/3 years left of control of Franchy.
(Pause while you divide 6.5 by 26.67.)
So, the five players we got will not be able to average 1/4 of a win per potential year? IOW, they traded Benintendi for five guys collectively indistinguishable from replacement level?
On what planet did this happen?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 5, 2021 17:37:04 GMT -5
I disagree. I still think Benin’s WAR will be more than all these pick-ups put together. If thag proves out it’s a straight-up bad deal. Benny's on a pace to collect 4.2 WAR before he hits free agency. But he had a slow start ... can we say 6.5 to be generous? That would match 2017-2019.
They have six years of control left for each of four prospects, and 2 2/3 years left of control of Franchy.
(Pause while you divide 6.5 by 26.67.)
So, the five players we got will not be able to average 1/4 of a win per potential year? IOW, they traded Benintendi for five guys collectively indistinguishable from replacement level?
On what planet did this happen?
They could easily not hit that mark. Two of them should basically be in high school. One is putting up rough numbers in A ball at age 23. Franchy is sitting at 0.0 career WAR. And then Wink. I’m not saying they can’t all make it, some can’t make it… any combo. And maybe just Franchy does it as a late bloomer or whatever. But it is *easy* to see this group collectively fail to hit 5 WAR. How many non-top-25 prospects from classes GCL to A+ end up 1/4 WAR year in the bigs?
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Post by Coreno on Jun 5, 2021 20:23:23 GMT -5
Was anyone going to pay 8+ million for Beni next year? ST was exactly optimistic either. You mean $1 million more than Bloomâs paying Kiké? I really can't tell whether you're overrating Beni, underrating Kiké, or both.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 5, 2021 20:32:01 GMT -5
The Red Sox literally need one of Duran, Santana, Kiké, or Franchy to be mediocre to make this a non-issue trade.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 5, 2021 20:41:40 GMT -5
I disagree. I still think Benin’s WAR will be more than all these pick-ups put together. If thag proves out it’s a straight-up bad deal. Is this career WAR going forward, or do you put a time frame on it (a la while they're with the Red Sox)? I'd take that bet on the "field" vs a non-superstar player, all things considered. Almost have to include Renfroe’s WAR in here to. It was the saved $ and open position that clearly lead to his signing.
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