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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 5, 2021 22:37:08 GMT -5
I disagree. I still think Benin’s WAR will be more than all these pick-ups put together. If thag proves out it’s a straight-up bad deal. Benny's on a pace to collect 4.2 WAR before he hits free agency. But he had a slow start ... can we say 6.5 to be generous? That would match 2017-2019.
They have six years of control left for each of four prospects, and 2 2/3 years left of control of Franchy.
(Pause while you divide 6.5 by 26.67.)
So, the five players we got will not be able to average 1/4 of a win per potential year? IOW, they traded Benintendi for five guys collectively indistinguishable from replacement level?
On what planet did this happen?
That's not the way to measure the success of the trade. If Beni puts up 6.5 WAR (your number) in 2021 and 2022, the RS will have missed out on two years of low-cost, material contributions from him. At least one of those years (this one) will have been a year in which we contended and desperately needed a lineup-lengthening bat, particularly a LH. The players we acquired could - and probably should - account for more than 6.5 WAR over their potential 26.67 years here. They could combine for, let's say, 10 WAR without one of them making a material impact on a RS season. That 10 WAR wouldn't make the trade a win. The odds are against any one of these guys becoming an impact player. The two KC guys are ranked 32 and 45 in a still-weak RS farm system by Fangraphs. Even Valdez is only ranked 29. (Full disclosure: I'll trust the SP rankings a lot more than FG or LB Pipeline.) Big Winck might have a chance to make an impact. But I think some people here are popping the cork on him a little early. He has 28 Ks in 32 innings in AA. He's been blessed by a .231 BABIP against. He has a long ways to go to be a ML contributor. Franchy? I hope he's a late-blooming masher like some guy the Twins released after the 2002 season. But he's 26 and has accumulated zero B-Ref WAR with an 84 OPS-plus for his career.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 5, 2021 23:17:35 GMT -5
Comparing Valdez to our 2018 OF class. These are DSL stats from 2019....don't get too worked up or too excited...again, they're DSL stats:
Freddy Valdez, age 17: .268 BA (.312 BABIP), 10.9% BB%, 17.9% K%, .164 ISO (15 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR), 6 SB (1 CS) Eduardo Lopez, age 17: .255 BA (.309 BABIP), 15.0% BB%, 15.0% K%, .108 ISO (7 2B, 8 3B, 0 HR), 18 SB (7 CS) Bryan Gonzalez, age 17: .251 BA (.322 BABIP), 10.2% BB%, 26.3% K%, .184 ISO (12 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR), 7 SB (3 CS) Eduardo Vaughan, age 17: .268 BA (.323 BABIP), 7.3% BB%, 17.6% K%, .081 ISO (11 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR), 4 SB (3 CS) Darel Belen, age 19: .281 BA (.337 BABIP), 10.3 % BB%, 18.9 K%, .149 ISO (11 2B, 5 3B, 5 HR), 14 SB (5 CS)
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2021 23:50:17 GMT -5
Benny's on a pace to collect 4.2 WAR before he hits free agency. But he had a slow start ... can we say 6.5 to be generous? That would match 2017-2019.
They have six years of control left for each of four prospects, and 2 2/3 years left of control of Franchy.
(Pause while you divide 6.5 by 26.67.)
So, the five players we got will not be able to average 1/4 of a win per potential year? IOW, they traded Benintendi for five guys collectively indistinguishable from replacement level?
On what planet did this happen?
That's not the way to measure the success of the trade. If Beni puts up 6.5 WAR (your number) in 2021 and 2022, the RS will have missed out on two years of low-cost, material contributions from him. At least one of those years (this one) will have been a year in which we contended and desperately needed a lineup-lengthening bat, particularly a LH. The players we acquired could - and probably should - account for more than 6.5 WAR over their potential 26.67 years here. They could combine for, let's say, 10 WAR without one of them making a material impact on a RS season. That 10 WAR wouldn't make the trade a win. The odds are against any one of these guys becoming an impact player. The two KC guys are ranked 32 and 45 in a still-weak RS farm system by Fangraphs. Even Valdez is only ranked 29. (Full disclosure: I'll trust the SP rankings a lot more than FG or LB Pipeline.) Big Winck might have a chance to make an impact. But I think some people here are popping the cork on him a little early. He has 28 Ks in 32 innings in AA. He's been blessed by a .231 BABIP against. He has a long ways to go to be a ML contributor. Franchy? I hope he's a late-blooming masher like some guy the Twins released after the 2002 season. But he's 26 and has accumulated zero B-Ref WAR with an 84 OPS-plus for his career. These are mostly terrific points. I will admit that a reason I think it's very, very likely that the trade is a big win is that Franchy's annually contribution will be comparable to Benni's, beginning from when he comes back up. By that, I mean that you won't be able to say that swapping them would make a significant difference.
Since you just explained nicely why winning a trade numerically can sometimes not really be winning it, you also know that this is the exception. Among these five guys, I expect Franchy will offset Benni (at less cost) or very likely be more valuable when you include the extra year; of the other four guys you likely get one very solid, one useful, and two busts or up-and-down guys. It's possible to redo the math and get the same total WAR by getting 5 second-division starters, the sort of player that a team like the Sox can upgrade pretty easily, but that's not the way talent is normally (pun intended) distributed.
Oh, and Winck has the crazy-low BABIP because in part because he has a crazy-low LD% and a really high PU%. He may have been BABIP-lucky on grounders, but the low LD% percentage suggests he should have a really good BABIP on those as well. The performance we're seeing doesn't seem to remotely match his scouting report; he seems to have a legit soft-contact skill, which is usually the result of superior command, and his was supposedly subpar. I think they saw a change they could make that would make him better overnight.
That is in fact a trailer for a whole separate rationale about the quality of the three PTBNL, that I'll do in a bit.
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Post by tomhouse on Jun 6, 2021 6:02:56 GMT -5
While I’m sure it isn’t easy to calculate, I’m still surprised there isn’t an algorithm to assess the potential value of this trade. We don't need an algorithm to know we got hosed. It was always a bad idea to sell low on Benintendi. And that's not saying he is a star or anything like that. How can you evaluate a trade with so many unknown variables, specifically the three minor league players?
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Post by dcb26 on Jun 6, 2021 8:16:33 GMT -5
We don't need an algorithm to know we got hosed. It was always a bad idea to sell low on Benintendi. And that's not saying he is a star or anything like that. How can you evaluate a trade with so many unknown variables, specifically the three minor league players? Who needs facts when you have opinions?
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 6, 2021 9:43:17 GMT -5
One thing to keep in mind is that this trade was made with the expectation that the Sox were going to be bad this season and were getting a head start on a rebuild. A lot of people criticizing the deal are focused on how Benny could help the team now. I imagine if the FO knew what the team's record would be now, perhaps they don't make the trade, but I can't criticize them for making a trade with that mindset because I (and many people) thought they were going to be terrible this year as well.
I don't think that Boston's unexpected success this far in the season is a justifiable criticism of the trade.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 6, 2021 9:59:50 GMT -5
The kicker is that Boston's unexpected success makes us evaluate the trade differently than we did at the time it was made. If they were an 80-win team it's a lot easier to say "good call, shifting our resources to future years" but as a 90-win team or a 95-win team it's hard to ignore the "gee we could use him in LF right now" thoughts.
I think this trade is going to remain incomplete for me, for at least a few more years. It's a risky move, one we're not used to in a big market, but the return could be impressive.
One thing I'd note is that 6.5 WAR over the next 6 years is not the same as 6.5 WAR this year and next. You almost need to do a present value calculation to make the comparison the same. Not to mention, Benintendi's 6.5 WAR will be a lot more expensive than these player's WAR so that needs to be factored in.
I also agree that Benintendi was likely not someone we'd want to sign at 10M+ per year, so getting a return for him is better than letting him walk. Take JBJ for example, would we have preferred to trade him in mid-2019 or during 2020? Or was it best to have that extra WAR and let him walk?
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Post by manfred on Jun 6, 2021 10:12:03 GMT -5
The kicker is that Boston's unexpected success makes us evaluate the trade differently than we did at the time it was made. If they were an 80-win team it's a lot easier to say "good call, shifting our resources to future years" but as a 90-win team or a 95-win team it's hard to ignore the "gee we could use him in LF right now" thoughts. I think this trade is going to remain incomplete for me, for at least a few more years. It's a risky move, one we're not used to in a big market, but the return could be impressive. One thing I'd note is that 6.5 WAR over the next 6 years is not the same as 6.5 WAR this year and next. You almost need to do a present value calculation to make the comparison the same. Not to mention, Benintendi's 6.5 WAR will be a lot more expensive than these player's WAR so that needs to be factored in. I also agree that Benintendi was likely not someone we'd want to sign at 10M+ per year, so getting a return for him is better than letting him walk. Take JBJ for example, would we have preferred to trade him in mid-2019 or during 2020? Or was it best to have that extra WAR and let him walk? So here is a question I keep mulling: if we aren’t going $10+ for Beni, what to do with Verdugo when the time comes? They are pretty similar. Both 1.1 bWAR. Beni (after a beastly start) is .295/.352/.430. Verdugo .290/.351/.455. Sure Verdugo is likely the more valuable defensive player, but he hasn’t necessarily shown huge separation offensively. And they are two years apart in age.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 6, 2021 10:34:13 GMT -5
The kicker is that Boston's unexpected success makes us evaluate the trade differently than we did at the time it was made. If they were an 80-win team it's a lot easier to say "good call, shifting our resources to future years" but as a 90-win team or a 95-win team it's hard to ignore the "gee we could use him in LF right now" thoughts. I think this trade is going to remain incomplete for me, for at least a few more years. It's a risky move, one we're not used to in a big market, but the return could be impressive. One thing I'd note is that 6.5 WAR over the next 6 years is not the same as 6.5 WAR this year and next. You almost need to do a present value calculation to make the comparison the same. Not to mention, Benintendi's 6.5 WAR will be a lot more expensive than these player's WAR so that needs to be factored in. I also agree that Benintendi was likely not someone we'd want to sign at 10M+ per year, so getting a return for him is better than letting him walk. Take JBJ for example, would we have preferred to trade him in mid-2019 or during 2020? Or was it best to have that extra WAR and let him walk? So here is a question I keep mulling: if we aren’t going $10+ for Beni, what to do with Verdugo when the time comes? They are pretty similar. Both 1.1 bWAR. Beni (after a beastly start) is .295/.352/.430. Verdugo .290/.351/.455. Sure Verdugo is likely the more valuable defensive player, but he hasn’t necessarily shown huge separation offensively. And they are two years apart in age. Benintendi is a free agent this offseason. Verdugo is a free agent in 2025. Huge difference.
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Post by manfred on Jun 6, 2021 11:10:02 GMT -5
So here is a question I keep mulling: if we aren’t going $10+ for Beni, what to do with Verdugo when the time comes? They are pretty similar. Both 1.1 bWAR. Beni (after a beastly start) is .295/.352/.430. Verdugo .290/.351/.455. Sure Verdugo is likely the more valuable defensive player, but he hasn’t necessarily shown huge separation offensively. And they are two years apart in age. Benintendi is a free agent this offseason. Verdugo is a free agent in 2025. Huge difference. Of course. But there have been discussions about extensions, future contracts etc.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 6, 2021 11:40:02 GMT -5
The expectation for Verdugo is that he continues to get better between now and 2025. If he stays at this level and doesn't grow, I think you would put the trust in your system to produce a similar-level player at a lower cost and spend the dollars elsewhere.
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Post by dcb26 on Jun 6, 2021 11:47:35 GMT -5
Curious if most people think they actually sold low on Benintendi? I know that's the narrative given how he performed the last 1.5-2 years, but is the return they got - a guy with significant unrealized potential (and a questionable chance of realizing any of it) and 4 roughly mid-tier prospects really a bad return for a league-average LF? Baseball isn't most sports where trading 5 nickels for a quarter is automatically a bad return; when you're talking prospects that can be a winning strategy. I didn't love (or hate) the idea of the trade at the time it was made, but seeing the return, I don't know that I agree that they sold low.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 6, 2021 12:01:07 GMT -5
The Red Sox literally need one of Duran, Santana, Kiké, or Franchy to be mediocre to make this a non-issue trade. And that is EXACTLY what blooms Red Sox will be about. His teams will have 3-4 guys who can succeed at average for each position where before we had one who could be a superstar. But when they weren’t or they got hurt it didn’t turn out so well. Baseball is a game of failure. This year to be average you can hit 1/4 times your at bat. If people don’t like this trade, welp be prepared because there will be plenty more like it atleast while bloom is in office. And we will win
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Post by ramireja on Jun 6, 2021 12:08:46 GMT -5
I want to push back a little on the narrative that we 'sold low' on Benintendi. Yes, we traded him after an injury-riddled sample of plate appearances in which he put up a wRC+ of 44, so I can't dispute that. But I don't know how you can look at the return and possibly think that KC was paying for the 2020 version of Benintendi. The package to me is commensurate with the 2019 version of Benintendi if not the greater 2017-2019 extended version of Benintendi.
If you didn't know Benintendi's identity, and I told you a single major leaguer with two years of control was traded for the following package, you'd have to assume that major leaguer was at least a role 55 player if not a role 60 player. The package:
- A fellow major leaguer with three years of control, above average tools and average performance to date, albeit with injury history. - The ~#7 prospect in a system noted for having solid high-end prospects. - The 80th overall pick in the 2019 draft. - A 'lottery ticket' but one who dominated the DSL with enough advanced pitchability, impressive secondaries, and projection to catch the attention of Ben Badler, Eric Longenhagen, etc.
I'd challenge anyone to find me a role 50 (or less) player at the time of a trade who netted that kind of return. If you would agree that's the type of return for a 55/60 player with 2 yrs of control, then I'm not so sure we sold low on him, nor do I think he would net much more in a trade if he were sold at this year's deadline.
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 6, 2021 12:46:23 GMT -5
- A fellow major leaguer with three years of control, above average tools and average performance to date, albeit with injury history. I wonder how we'd be talking about this trade if Franchy was even playing up to his pre-2021 averages (.236/.304/.433, not too far from Renfroe's current line). I think it's more than fair not to like the trade based on what we've seen from him so far, but I don't know that it's fair to blame Bloom for thinking he'd be better.
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Post by manfred on Jun 6, 2021 12:53:21 GMT -5
- A fellow major leaguer with three years of control, above average tools and average performance to date, albeit with injury history. I wonder how we'd be talking about this trade if Franchy was even playing up to his pre-2021 averages (.236/.304/.433, not too far from Renfroe's current line). I think it's more than fair not to like the trade based on what we've seen from him so far, but I don't know that it's fair to blame Bloom for thinking he'd be better. But that line doesn’t necessarily reflect *consistent* output. It is inflated by a good 9-game stretch in 2019. The thing about Franchy is that there have been glimmers to dream on (that stretch, his AAA numbers in 2017), but there have been as many or more rough patches or warning signs. You take a lottery ticket, you also take responsibility for it not hitting.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 6, 2021 14:16:06 GMT -5
Cordero's best season he gave his team .2 bwar. I'm fine betting on a lottery ticket, yet he wasn't some high upside prospect. He was never close to even Chavis, who at 2B has real value and upside. Now 1B is a whole different ball game, let's just make that clear.
You can't overlook the money, given what it cost the Yankees in German to unload money this year. You can certainly say it's smart, yet you also have to add that in.
So no I don't think that Royals package equals Benintendi at full value, not even close. Not if you project 6.5 war for Benintendi.
For years this board has always been saying five nickels doesn't equal a quarter when it comes to prospects in Baseball. I was naive at first, yet over the years I've come to understand why. That's what this trade is. Now a crazy smart GM might be able to pull off mini miracles. It certainly happens. Red Sox win this trade it shows you how good Bloom is. It's not that you won this trade on current value, it's Bloom was able to spot players that were being undervalued.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 6, 2021 14:58:21 GMT -5
Cordero's best season he gave his team .2 bwar. I'm fine betting on a lottery ticket, yet he wasn't some high upside prospect. He was never close to even Chavis, who at 2B has real value and upside. Now 1B is a whole different ball game, let's just make that clear. You can't overlook the money, given what it cost the Yankees in German to unload money this year. You can certainly say it's smart, yet you also have to add that in. So no I don't think that Royals package equals Benintendi at full value, not even close. Not if you project 6.5 war for Benintendi. For years this board has always been saying five nickels doesn't equal a quarter when it comes to prospects in Baseball. I was naive at first, yet over the years I've come to understand why. That's what this trade is. Now a crazy smart GM might be able to pull off mini miracles. It certainly happens. Red Sox win this trade it shows you how good Bloom is. It's not that you won this trade on current value, it's Bloom was able to spot players that were being undervalued. Cordero has never played more than 40 games in a season, so solely citing a full season WAR total to project him moving forward isn't fair. If he was a regular starter and never materialized it'd be a different conversation, this guy is still relatively raw. FWIW Fangraphs had Cordero at 45FV in 2018, and Chavis at 45FV in 2019. I'm not sure how you can suggest he "was never close" to Chavis, you're either overrating what Chavis was a prospect or underrating Cordero. I'm not a big Franchy fan, I'm just trying to keep it consistent. I see your Chavis profile pic so I'm assuming you're invested in him. If he proves to be a decent defensive 2B moving forward sure, I'd prefer that to Franchy's risk/reward profile.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 6, 2021 15:03:15 GMT -5
I think the rule 5 draft concerns for Valdez are minimal. No one is putting him on their major league roster after this year.
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Post by lancect on Jun 6, 2021 15:12:41 GMT -5
Overall I like the trade, while Benintendi is playing better, this is the kind of deal TB and Oakland do all the time and end up with guys like Arozarena so I like the long game they are playing and how they have surprised us this year. Frankly I have more of a problem with signing Kiki for 2 years/$14 million and playing him full time than with the Benintendi trade
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 6, 2021 15:30:28 GMT -5
Overall I like the trade, while Benintendi is playing better, this is the kind of deal TB and Oakland do all the time and end up with guys like Arozarena so I like the long game they are playing and how they have surprised us this year. Frankly I have more of a problem with signing Kiki for 2 years/$14 million and playing him full time than with the Benintendi trade Arozarena was the Cards best prospect and pretty much a prospect swap for Matthew Liberatore
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 6, 2021 15:32:59 GMT -5
Do we pick up Renfroe if we don’t get rid of Benny? I’m not sure but I think it’s plausible that we don’t, especially with luxury tax concerns.
So really here’s how I view the Benny return:
Valdez Gambrel De La Rosa Winchowski Franchy (3 years control) Renfroe (3 years control) $4M savings (net of Renfroe)
For
Benny (2 years control) (we’ll go with the 6.5 WAR projection, even if I find that to be aggressive)
That’s not terrible. Now I think it’s important to factor in that *at the time of the trade* the forecast for Sox wins this year was ~79. So let’s adjust the return for a “lost season.” Obviously that’s not the case now, but I think at least some judgement should be weighted based on the situation we were in.
If the Red Sox missed playoffs in 2021, this would be the situation in 2022:
Valdez Gambrel De La Rosa Winchowski Franchy (2 years control) Renfroe (2 years control) $4M savings
For
Benny (1 year control) (3.2 WAR)
I think this trade looks fine within the current situation, and if the Sox were playing to expectations at the time of the trade (~79 wins in 2021) it looks really good. And again I think the Benny 6.4 / 3.2 WAR forecast is aggressive anyways.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 6, 2021 15:48:52 GMT -5
The FO got what they wanted the second the trade was finalized which was to dump what appeared to a declining Benni and his salary. If any of these players amount to more than a hill of beans it is all gravy, I disagree. I still think Benin’s WAR will be more than all these pick-ups put together. If thag proves out it’s a straight-up bad deal. Wait and see if any of the prospects amount to anything..... If Beni had stayed in Boston and had a bad season he would have been impossible to trade and dead money. Bloom was hedging that ....Cordero, Winckowski, and three prospects (with 3,7,7,7,7 years of controllability) would be worth more than 2 years at $14 million of Benintendi....
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 6, 2021 17:12:49 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 6, 2021 17:53:01 GMT -5
I want to push back a little on the narrative that we 'sold low' on Benintendi. Yes, we traded him after an injury-riddled sample of plate appearances in which he put up a wRC+ of 44, so I can't dispute that. But I don't know how you can look at the return and possibly think that KC was paying for the 2020 version of Benintendi. The package to me is commensurate with the 2019 version of Benintendi if not the greater 2017-2019 extended version of Benintendi. If you didn't know Benintendi's identity, and I told you a single major leaguer with two years of control was traded for the following package, you'd have to assume that major leaguer was at least a role 55 player if not a role 60 player. The package: - A fellow major leaguer with three years of control, above average tools and average performance to date, albeit with injury history. - The ~#7 prospect in a system noted for having solid high-end prospects. - The 80th overall pick in the 2019 draft. - A 'lottery ticket' but one who dominated the DSL with enough advanced pitchability, impressive secondaries, and projection to catch the attention of Ben Badler, Eric Longenhagen, etc. I'd challenge anyone to find me a role 50 (or less) player at the time of a trade who netted that kind of return. If you would agree that's the type of return for a 55/60 player with 2 yrs of control, then I'm not so sure we sold low on him, nor do I think he would net much more in a trade if he were sold at this year's deadline. Perfect post, couldn’t have said it better myself. If they held on to him I don’t think his value really goes up as a .750 OPS guy at the deadline. The “gain” in performance is offset by losing more control time. They got a pretty good haul for one average to above average starting corner OF with an uninspiring profile (good hit, meh power, meh field, meh run, bad arm)
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