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Red Sox sign Marwin Gonzalez
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Post by manfred on Feb 12, 2021 0:52:35 GMT -5
This has been a pretty depressing offseason, but it reaches a new low when one realizes Marwin Gonzalez’s signing—especially in the aftermath of trading Benintendi—likely means Jackie is gone. Other than a small handful of remaining homegrown guys, this has the potential to be a bummer roster. Like, early 90s rosters bummer. I hate to be the one to tell you this, but Jackie Bradley stinks. His career OPS+ is 94. So, he’s not even league average and his agent is Boras(who somehow thinks he’s getting 5yr/$50m in this market). Good luck to JBJ. His glove was great in CF, but we’ve seen enough of that bat. Let’s see what some other options look like instead. He was, again, essentially their co-best player last year.... .1 WAR behind Verdugo. So if you let him go, you are already looking at work to catch up to last year. Now, people can argue if they accomplished that, but facts is facts... his loss leaves a sizeable hole.
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Post by benzinger on Feb 12, 2021 0:55:37 GMT -5
I hate to be the one to tell you this, but Jackie Bradley stinks. Career OPS+ of 94. So, he’s not even league average and his agent is Boras(who somehow thinks he’s getting 5yr/$50m in this market). Good luck to JBJ. His glove was great in CF, but we’ve seen enough of that bat. Let’s see what some other options look like instead. He’s essentially been a 3 WAR player since taking over as a starter, you have zero clue what you’re talking about if you think that “stinks”. Is Mookie Betts merely good by your standards? Also the player profile you described- somebody with a career OPS+ of 94 with an elite glove- isn’t even a description of a player that stinks so i just don’t get it Also, why are you dragging Mookie Betts into a conversation about JBJ? Mookie is a legit superstar. His WORST season is better than JBJ’s BEST season. I’m not sure what you were going for there.
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Post by benzinger on Feb 12, 2021 1:01:38 GMT -5
I hate to be the one to tell you this, but Jackie Bradley stinks. His career OPS+ is 94. So, he’s not even league average and his agent is Boras(who somehow thinks he’s getting 5yr/$50m in this market). Good luck to JBJ. His glove was great in CF, but we’ve seen enough of that bat. Let’s see what some other options look like instead. He was, again, essentially their co-best player last year.... .1 WAR behind Verdugo. So if you let him go, you are already looking at work to catch up to last year. Now, people can argue if they accomplished that, but facts is facts... his loss leaves a sizeable hole. I’ll agree there’s a pretty big hole in CF defensively. But that’s where most of his value lies. His bat is not hard to replace.
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Post by manfred on Feb 12, 2021 1:16:42 GMT -5
He was, again, essentially their co-best player last year.... .1 WAR behind Verdugo. So if you let him go, you are already looking at work to catch up to last year. Now, people can argue if they accomplished that, but facts is facts... his loss leaves a sizeable hole. I’ll agree there’s a pretty big hole in CF defensively. But that’s where most of his value lies. His bat is not hard to replace. He was 2 oWAR or more every year from 2016 on, except last year when he was 1.6 oWAR in 1/3 of a season. Verdugo was 1.5 oWAR. So.... those were their two best players, and JBJ was actually more valuable offensively. Honestly, if anything I think we underrate JBJ because when he was cold he looked so bad. But when you look at his total numbers for the Sox? Guy was really, really solid.
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 12, 2021 1:22:17 GMT -5
The 2011 Rule 5 Prodigal Son returns!
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 12, 2021 1:39:07 GMT -5
He’s essentially been a 3 WAR player since taking over as a starter, you have zero clue what you’re talking about if you think that “stinks”. Is Mookie Betts merely good by your standards? Also the player profile you described- somebody with a career OPS+ of 94 with an elite glove- isn’t even a description of a player that stinks so i just don’t get it Also, why are you dragging Mookie Betts into a conversation about JBJ? Mookie is a legit superstar. His WORST season is better than JBJ’s BEST season. I’m not sure what you were going for there. I’m saying that your standards are out of whack if you think Bradley “stinks” as a player. You put a borderline hilarious lack of value on elite defense at a premium position. That’s what I’m going for. If a 3 WAR guy stinks then an 8 WAR guy is merely good. I’m also just taking JBJ’s years as a starter and averaging them out but ok, whatever helps you sleep at night Also just because I’m not embarrassing myself with a lack of baseball knowledge- I’m not for instance completely disregarding elite defense in center field- doesn’t mean I want to bring back Brock Holt. Anyways, this is the Marwin Gonzalez thread. Idk why you choose to hijack it with hyperbolic nonsense about JBJ
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Post by tyler3 on Feb 12, 2021 1:57:39 GMT -5
Ahhh, most of you guys are the greatest. And you numbers guys really blow me away. But this off season seems a little edgier than usual. I mean we must have broke a record with the number of threads/pages... But Marwin.....I mean that’s really it isn’t it...that’s the end of the off season..has to be. And if you have an opinion about the route it went there is like a 125% you voiced it on here hard. I’m out until the PTBNLs are announced. Manfred hold down the fort, Hatfield be glib, unitspin Piss everyone off yet refuse to back down, VermontSox shut it all down with a doomsday button if Mookie comes up again. Take care guys, stay safe.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 12, 2021 2:27:12 GMT -5
I’ll agree there’s a pretty big hole in CF defensively. But that’s where most of his value lies. His bat is not hard to replace. He was 2 oWAR or more every year from 2016 on, except last year when he was 1.6 oWAR in 1/3 of a season. Verdugo was 1.5 oWAR. So.... those were their two best players, and JBJ was actually more valuable offensively. Honestly, if anything I think we underrate JBJ because when he was cold he looked so bad. But when you look at his total numbers for the Sox? Guy was really, really solid. You need to go read up on advanced stats. Offensive bwar is adjusted per position. Gonzalez would put up a 2 oWAR in CF in from 2014-2019. Hence the his offense is easy to replace. Verdugo would have a higher oWAR in CF, Bradley's oWAR would go down in RF or LF.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 12, 2021 4:55:48 GMT -5
I really hated this move at first. To recycle an analogy from a few days ago, signing both Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez is like having two last meals before your execution and picking a pizza and a calzone.
He has a 93 wRC+ against RHP and 95 against LHP the last three years. That bat only plays at 2B, SS, and CF, which he doesn't play. Otherwise, he's just a redundant bench part when we had no roster space for it.
How good has he been at 2B defensively in the last three years? +18 R / 150, in 368 innings.
Interesting. Even regressing that to the mean, that's a credible first-division starting 2B. Is that the plan? Is Arroyo not in their plans after all?
We had two roster spots open, LHB / 1B, and starting OF. You need an OF starter vs. RHP because of Hunter Renfroe's career 87 wRC+ against them, a near-replacement-level figure for an OF corner. He's a platoon guy. You need someone who hits RHP better than him ... but 93 instead of 87? No, that doesn't work. And the bat plays even worse as the guy who plays 1B against tough RHP.
He's been great in high-leverage and good with men on the last three years, which adds value as a regular, but he still can't pinch-hit a lick, which makes him an even less useful bench guy. Mitch Moreland hits RHP much better and is a great pinch-hitter, and if you think he's washed up, Travis Shaw is a good solution.
So Marwin doesn't remotely fill either of our needs, but he's a really interesting choice as a starting 2B, who can play a bunch of other positions when needed, as a bonus.
If they're still going to fill those two roles--and I think failing to fill both would be indefensible--then they have to deal Arroyo, right?
Very interesting. Since I have no opinion on either the viability of Arroyo as a regular at 2B or his current trade value, I rather like this signing if that's what's in the cards, especially at $3M plus $1M in incentives. I was really high on Cesar Hernandez as a 2B stopgap if Arroyo wasn't deemed viable, but Marwin at this price is very likely a better choice.
If this signing means they're not going to add JBJ / Gardner or not going to add Moreland / Shaw, I can't tell you how much I dislike it. I want one from Column A and one from Column B (and never wanted Alex Colome).
Extra thoughts: each game against a RHP they can decide between Gonzalez and Hernandez at 2B, based on the opposing pitcher. Against LHP, Kiké's always in the OF along with Verdugo and Renfroe if you don't sign JBJ, and if you do, you have the choice of playing JBJ in CF and using Kiké to rest anyone in the lineup.
Marwin's versatility comes into play when guys get hurt. That can be very useful.
If this is the plan ... for $10M they get a quite good two-headed 2B (especially if they can platoon them with anywhere near an Earl Weaver-like skill, and he had file cards and they have mountains of computerized data), a really good short-side platoon OF who is also your backup SS (!), and a crazy amount of positional depth and versatility. Plus they get something interesting for Arroyo, who projects to be an upgrade at 2B for the O's (Yolmer Sanchez), Mariners (Dylan Moore), Rangers (Nick Solak), and Rockies (Brendan Rogers), and is of course of special interest because of the possibility that he might exceed his projection.
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Post by unitspin on Feb 12, 2021 6:54:46 GMT -5
My lips to Chaim's ears lol. Not a terribly exciting signing, but it's one that makes complete sense. If we can somehow get him back to his 2017 form, we'd be cooking. I wonder if Cora has any ideas Trash cans?
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 12, 2021 7:02:49 GMT -5
I have been waiting patiently to see some moves that make me optimistic about the coming season being more than another bridge year. This move ends that. Not that it is terrible or he is no good. Rather it is a sum of the moves that make this another building year and that makes sense based on all the question marks. Most importantly your ace isn't likely to contribute much. So Bloom has made his deals with an eye on the future, building up the system and maintaining roster flexibility. And yeah know with covid and all why not, nothing can be counted on as normal so why not extend out the penalties for exceeding the cap.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 12, 2021 7:29:32 GMT -5
I wonder if Cora has any ideas Trash cans? Could hire Alex Van Halen as an assistant to the 3rd base coach.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 12, 2021 7:36:38 GMT -5
Over the last 5 seasons, the average starting RF has put up a 114 wRC+. In theory, you want a LF to be even better than that, since it's easier defensively. (In practice, there's a shortage of good corner OFers.)
One reason to platoon is that you can get a guy better than that at a bargain price.
Here are the current options for the 2nd OF corner, versus RHP: 2018-20 Career Hernandez 100 82 Gonzalez 93 100 Renfore 93 87 After all the smart acquisitions so far this winter ... leaving this as is would be dreadful. I just can't see it being part of the plan.
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Post by orion09 on Feb 12, 2021 7:43:05 GMT -5
Over the last 5 seasons, the average starting RF has put up a 114 wRC+. In theory, you want a LF to be even better than that, since it's easier defensively. (In practice, there's a shortage of good corner OFers.)
One reason to platoon is that you can get a guy better than that at a bargain price.
Here are the current options for the 2nd OF corner, versus RHP: 2018-20 Career Hernandez 100 82 Gonzalez 93 100 Renfore 93 87 After all the smart acquisitions so far this winter ... leaving this as is would be dreadful. I just can't see it being part of the plan.
If they leave it as is, you have to think it’s because they believe Duran is close. In that case, it makes sense to sign a utility player as your last OF, because if and when Duran pushes him out, he retains value as someone who can fill in at multiple positions.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 12, 2021 7:46:17 GMT -5
I wonder if Cora has any ideas Trash cans? For what it's worth, he was much better in the road in 2017.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 12, 2021 8:32:27 GMT -5
It boggles my mind how many people "like Gonzalez's bat from the left side" (as Lou Merloni put it). Season Tm PA K% BB% HRC BABIP BA OBP SLG wRC+ 2012 HOU 164 .122 .067 .015 .308 .276 .325 .388 95 2013 HOU 183 .164 .033 .029 .243 .219 .244 .325 53 2014 HOU 269 .193 .059 .031 .319 .268 .321 .398 107 2015 HOU 217 .235 .028 .039 .331 .268 .296 .405 94 2016 HOU 336 .211 .042 .033 .305 .255 .292 .385 84 2017 HOU 381 .197 .100 .069 .369 .322 .394 .552 154 2018 HOU 375 .235 .112 .046 .288 .235 .327 .395 102 2019 MIN 339 .224 .083 .043 .300 .249 .322 .393 88 2020 MIN 132 .212 .098 .056 .226 .209 .295 .357 79
It's pretty clear that he transformed himself as a hitter in 2017. (Note that this was also the year that he went from being awful in high leverage to excellent.) The BB rate jumps up and has stayed elevated, HR / Contact does the same, and BABIP jumps up that year but then returns to its old level. And afterwards the league adjusted.
I said to myself, if I'm right about that, then he had a crazy first half that year and came back to earth a bit, right?
I was wrong. He had a crazy first third ... When vs R vs L Thru 6/9 193 148 6/10 to 8/12 155 106 8/13 - end 114 76 Given the 114 he had the last 6 weeks, the 102 he had next year fits perfectly.
A simple Marcel projection puts him at 91 this year.
There's no way they acquired this guy to be a lefty platoon bat at 1B and in an an OF corner. That's ludicrous. But with his glove, 91 is solid as a 2B (where the average has been 102 the last 5 years, for starters).
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Post by bcsox on Feb 12, 2021 8:49:55 GMT -5
I remain unconvinced that Arroyo has any real trade value. He was as scrap heap pick up for the Sox. Yes once a highly thought of prospoect but his career never took off, and he played 14 games for the Sox, which is certainly a very small sample size, and it wasnt like he was exceptional even in that sample. Why do we believe he has trade value that would bring the sox back anything more than a nominal prospect?
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Post by unitspin on Feb 12, 2021 9:02:24 GMT -5
For what it's worth, he was much better in the road in 2017. I was just joking. Adding him to the mix was a good move. He reminds me of Brock holt with a better range in the OF.
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Post by manfred on Feb 12, 2021 10:01:50 GMT -5
For what it's worth, he was much better in the road in 2017. That is interesting. It is still pretty suspicious how out of whack his stats are the year they were cheating. I promised to be only positive, and I don’t much care about this signing, but I think it kinda sucks — even if it is just appearances— that guys like Springer and MG draw interest from multiple teams and Fiers, who has actually been rather good the last couple of years, had only one team kick the tires. Who knows why MG’s 2017 was so good. But his career OPS+ drops by almost 9 if you remove that season. Again... not about the signing so much as the wages of sin. How did cheating hurt those players?
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Post by manfred on Feb 12, 2021 10:06:52 GMT -5
He was 2 oWAR or more every year from 2016 on, except last year when he was 1.6 oWAR in 1/3 of a season. Verdugo was 1.5 oWAR. So.... those were their two best players, and JBJ was actually more valuable offensively. Honestly, if anything I think we underrate JBJ because when he was cold he looked so bad. But when you look at his total numbers for the Sox? Guy was really, really solid. You need to go read up on advanced stats. Offensive bwar is adjusted per position. Gonzalez would put up a 2 oWAR in CF in from 2014-2019. Hence the his offense is easy to replace. Verdugo would have a higher oWAR in CF, Bradley's oWAR would go down in RF or LF. I figured, and yet it is also meant to be a measure you can use across the board — or else it would be cfoWAR, rfoWAR. Anyway, I’m not literally saying JBJ was a better offensive player in CF. Yeah if you moved Verdugo there, he’d be better. But then you need a RF! The point is, as center fielders go, JBJ is actually a good offensive one. Not Springer, not Verdugo, but very good. And better defensively.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 12, 2021 10:35:54 GMT -5
It boggles my mind how many people "like Gonzalez's bat from the left side" (as Lou Merloni put it). Season Tm PA K% BB% HRC BABIP BA OBP SLG wRC+ 2012 HOU 164 .122 .067 .015 .308 .276 .325 .388 95 2013 HOU 183 .164 .033 .029 .243 .219 .244 .325 53 2014 HOU 269 .193 .059 .031 .319 .268 .321 .398 107 2015 HOU 217 .235 .028 .039 .331 .268 .296 .405 94 2016 HOU 336 .211 .042 .033 .305 .255 .292 .385 84 2017 HOU 381 .197 .100 .069 .369 .322 .394 .552 154 2018 HOU 375 .235 .112 .046 .288 .235 .327 .395 102 2019 MIN 339 .224 .083 .043 .300 .249 .322 .393 88 2020 MIN 132 .212 .098 .056 .226 .209 .295 .357 79
It's pretty clear that he transformed himself as a hitter in 2017. (Note that this was also the year that he went from being awful in high leverage to excellent.) The BB rate jumps up and has stayed elevated, HR / Contact does the same, and BABIP jumps up that year but then returns to its old level. And afterwards the league adjusted.
I said to myself, if I'm right about that, then he had a crazy first half that year and came back to earth a bit, right?
I was wrong. He had a crazy first third ... When vs R vs L Thru 6/9 193 148 6/10 to 8/12 155 106 8/13 - end 114 76 Given the 114 he had the last 6 weeks, the 102 he had next year fits perfectly.
A simple Marcel projection puts him at 91 this year. There's no way they acquired this guy to be a lefty platoon bat at 1B and in an an OF corner. That's ludicrous. But with his glove, 91 is solid as a 2B (where the average has been 102 the last 5 years, for starters).
They probably acquired him to babysit an outfield corner until Duran is ready to come up and take over CF, which would force whoever had been playing CF, either Verdugo (RF) or Cordero (LF) into an outfield corner and Gonzalez out of an outfield corner platoon and probably open up some more ABs for him at 2b if there's a tough righty they'd prefer he face that they'd prefer Hernandez not to face. It's much easier to displace a mediocrity like Gonzalez out of a front end of a platoon role and into a bench role when you call up a rookie like Duran and give him a full chance. All winter long you kept talking about the plan to bring JBJ back. Unless JBJ was coming back for a year at a very reasonable cost ($7 or $8 million) - and really what are the odds on that, the plan probably all along was for Jarren Duran to become the CF sooner than later - at some midpoint of the season. I think in all of your talk about going over the limit and JBJ's role in all this, Bloom's bigger plan was to stay under and use Duran in CF to accomplish this. He must have liked what he scouted when watching him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 12, 2021 10:40:07 GMT -5
From the 4-man roster thread: Because of the versatility from Marwin & Kiké it looks like it could just be a 3 man bench with an extra pitcher. WouldnâÂÂt completely close the door on Moreland though if the price is right. IâÂÂm not completely sure of the details but it seems like they may have so many pitchers they need to keep on the major league roster in order to not lose them that they may opt for just Marwin / Plawecki / Arroyo on the bench. I really donât see Kikéâs versatility being that big a factor, because he looks like he is pretty close to being the second baseman. Maybe theyâll mix Arroyo in more than I think, but I just see Kiké out there most games. In other words: I think they might need an extra guy. Actually, his best position seems to be CF, because 2B and CF have hit exactly as well the last three years and CF is his best defensive position. He projects to be league-average out there vs. RHP, and obviously better than that vs. LHP. He's nearly as good at 2B, mind you -- when you convert defense to wRC+ and take the latter relative to league average, he's a 95 at 2B vs. RHP, while Gonzalez is 100 and Arroyo might be the best (who knows?)
Which means you could just make him your regular CF! And then Gonzalez and Arroyo platoon at 2B. Franchy and Renfroe platoon in LF.
I don't know why anyone would think they were done now when all along we've had them adding a LHB / 1B capable of platooning and an OF capable of playing everyday vs. RHP. Marwin's not two people.
As I showed above, just because he can play 1B and can bat lefty doesn't mean he can fill the Mitch Moreland role. But he could be filling the other role by replacing Hernandez as the 2B platoon partner.
Here's my current take ...
1) JBJ is enough of an upgrade that you try to sign him, and if you can, you trade Arroyo so that Kiké can become the other half of the 2B platoon.
2) If you can't sign JBJ and you still like Arroyo, you just make Kiké the regular CF and have Marwin and Arroyo platoon at 2B.
3) But you can also sign Brett Gardner instead of JBJ, and trade Arroyo.
In short:
Arroyo's roster spot is either going to be him, JBJ, or Gardner.
They still need to add Moreland (or Shaw).
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Post by manfred on Feb 12, 2021 10:45:25 GMT -5
From the 4-man roster thread: I really donât see Kikéâs versatility being that big a factor, because he looks like he is pretty close to being the second baseman. Maybe theyâll mix Arroyo in more than I think, but I just see Kiké out there most games. In other words: I think they might need an extra guy. Actually, his best position seems to be CF, because 2B and CF have hit exactly as well the last three years and CF is his best defensive position. He projects to be league-average out there vs. RHP, and obviously better than that vs. LHP. He's nearly as good at 2B, mind you -- when you convert defense to wRC+ and take the latter relative to league average, he's a 95 at 2B vs. RHP, while Gonzalez is 100 and Arroyo might be the best (who knows?)
Which means you could just make him your regular CF! And then Gonzalez and Arroyo platoon at 2B. Franchy and Renfroe platoon in LF.
I don't know why anyone would think they were done now when all along we've had them adding a LHB / 1B capable of platooning and an OF capable of playing everyday vs. RHP. Marwin's not two people.
As I showed above, just because he can play 1B and can bat lefty doesn't mean he can fill the Mitch Moreland role. But he could be filling the other role by replacing Hernandez as the 2B platoon partner.
Here's my current take ...
1) JBJ is enough of an upgrade that you try to sign him, and if you can, you trade Arroyo so that Kiké can become the other half of the 2B platoon.
2) If you can't sign JBJ and you still like Arroyo, you just make Kiké the regular CF and have Marwin and Arroyo platoon at 2B.
3) But you can also sign Brett Gardner instead of JBJ, and trade Arroyo.
In short:
Arroyo's roster spot is either going to be him, JBJ, or Gardner.
They still need to add Moreland (or Shaw).
Need in the sense that JBJ is better than the others, sure. But Springer was too... my point being you might be conflating “would be a step up” with “they will sign.” I’m no more sure than anyone who they might still sign, but even if I agree with numbers — and I do — it doesn’t translate to necessary action. They have, alas, conflicting needs. Get younger, cheaper. Get better. Those two things are in a bit of tension in the short run. We’ll see.
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Post by greenmonster on Feb 12, 2021 10:49:05 GMT -5
UGGGHHH...This would be my worse nightmare. I dislike Brett Gardner more than any other NYY. Just looking at him makes my blood boil.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 12, 2021 11:05:34 GMT -5
The interest other teams had in Marwin suggests we would have little trouble moving him at the deadline if Duran (or Colin Willis 🙂) is up and mashing.
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