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Christian Vasquez as a Trade Candidate
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 26, 2021 23:58:02 GMT -5
Vasquez makes a lot of sense as the next guy up to trade in order to replenish the farm. He’s one of if not the only guy(s) left (barring off-season acquisitions, and for these guys I think it is premature to individually discuss them as trade pieces) who sits in the “has legitimate trade value but isn’t a cornerstone” category.
I see a lot of people calling for this trade to be made, and I can see why, but the issue I run into is that there is no apparent replacement in the farm, and the 2022 catcher free agent class isn’t exactly littered with legitimate options.
Internal options:
• Wong • Plawecki • Hermann • Hernandez (I don’t really consider him an option in this conversation since most people consider him pretty far off, but he will inevitably come up in discussion so I’ll put him on here
2022 Free Agents:
From what I can see Perez and D’Arnaud are the only legitimate options hitting FA in 2022. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong here.
So if you’re thinking Sox flip Vasquez at the deadline - I guess I could deal with some combination of Wong / Plawecki / Hermann for a couple months. Wouldn’t be pretty but it is what it is. If we’re at the point of trading Vasquez at the deadline Sox won’t be pretty to watch anyways.
Even if we suck up 2021 with a subpar catcher, where does that leave us in 2022? I’m not comfortable with hoping you nab Perez or D’Arnaud. Sure you can work the trade market but that just diminishes whatever return you got for Vasquez. Hernandez most likely still not MLB ready for 2022 (assuming he ever will be).
I know that was a lot of thinking out loud but hopefully can start a conversation around this. If Sox suck this season I’d probably be on the fence at trading Vasquez at the deadline. I think they’d have to be pretty high on Wongs ability to catch in 2022 (relative to what the general conception of him is) in order to think about moving Vasquez. Not that Wong is the long term solution but just because you have to have something at the position in case you strike out in FA.
What do you guys think?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 27, 2021 0:10:49 GMT -5
From a logical standpoint I get the idea of retrieving value for Vazquez, but they really don't have any surefire backstop that projects as a regular catcher in the minor leagues. Ramirez has the best shot at being a regular catcher, but odds are he won't be as good as Vazquez. Wong is seen more as a utility type.
Then there's the possibility that Vazquez continues to play well and is willing to re-sign with the Red Sox for a highly reasonably amount. Vazquez has made it clear multiple times that he really only wants to play for the Red Sox. He wants to be a Red Sox lifer. I'd say that's the case with him and Chris Sale and possibly Xander.
I guess I'd say if you have a guy who is pretty good, certainly among the better catchers in the league, better than what your best catching prospects in the minors would project to, doesn't look like he's declining very soon, is willing to take a reasonable contract extension because he truly wants to stay with the team, I'd say that might be a guy you want to hang onto.
I mean, he could go out and be pretty mediocre this year, and what I posted could look real silly, but as of this moment, I think he's valuable, even if he does eventually become a backup catcher assuming he signs a reasonable home town discount extension.
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Post by rasimon on Feb 27, 2021 3:22:24 GMT -5
CV is 30-31 this season. He is under contract for $6.25mm this year and the Sox hold a $7mm option for 2022
How much do we think CV will want to extend his contract?
Assume he is worth an expected 2.5 war this year and then declining .5 points each year after that. In 2022 he will be 31-32 with expected war of 2. Extending him for 2023 through 2025 he would be 32-33, 33-34, 34-35 with expected war of 1.5, 1, 0.5. So that's 3 points of war during the extension. Let's assume $8mm per point. $8mm*3=$24mm or $8mm per year. Subjectively that looks a bit low to me, due to pitcher handling, but let's go with it.
How much do we think he will be worth in trade value now? and after 2021? For 2021 he is getting paid $6.25mm versus expected value of $8mm*2.5 = $20mm or surplus of $13.75mm. 2022 option costs $7mm versus expected value of $8mm*2=$16mm or surplus of $9mm. Today's value is actually a bit higher due to the optionally. Ignoring the value of optionality today he has surplus value of $22.75mm. After 2021 he will have surplus value of only $9mm.
So he actually has a lot of value right now, but that value will likely be quickly depleted. Someone mentioned the Angels as a possible trade partner. Brandon Marsh plus a tier 3 type would be fair. Marsh + Chris Rodriguez would be a good deal.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 27, 2021 4:52:09 GMT -5
I wouldn't want CV moved personally. Couple of reasons. 1, is not many combo of good hitting/catching and throwing receivers in the game as it is and 2. Vazquez is one who likes it in Boston, saying multiple times he wants to remain, which means he may take a slight discount in terms of $$ and years to remain in any extension.
Should Bloom look to move him, which his name was rumored to have come up last year's trade deadline, I expect the price to be quite expensive, as in a player ready (or nearly) to step right into the lineup/rotation and more is so rare catcher's of his ilk, with 2y of control being paid so little.
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Post by Drj on Feb 27, 2021 6:59:11 GMT -5
I do not know how long it would take to make the majors, but I could see a trade if the Sox like Miami catcher Adrian Del Castillo enough to pick #4 in the draft. I don't know how long CV will be able to put up these numbers while catching full time. Trade at the deadline if you can get back what you want.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 27, 2021 12:50:41 GMT -5
All depends on his trade value. If you can get value in return that makes it worth moving him, I'd be in. A Plawecki/Hermann tandem from midseason on wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
I get that the catcher of the future isn't necessarily coming up, but I'm not sure betting on one of Wong/Pereda/Hernandez developing is a worse bet than relying on Vazquez at age 32 and onward.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 27, 2021 13:10:01 GMT -5
The Sox are in a good situation. Expectations are not that high. If things are going good record wise, great. If not, then hopefully this summers sell off is the last one. As for CV it all depends on the return. So far Bloom and company have did a fine job of getting a pretty good return on assets. That said, I’d like to start adding to the top of then list and I’m not sure Vazquez will return top end talent.
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 27, 2021 16:07:12 GMT -5
It's interesting to imagine how you would put someone like CV on the market and how a negotiation would play out.
Let's start with a comparison to DD. He took over, as I remember, a last-place team, but one that was on the way up. He identified established, high-level big-leaguers as targets to fill pitching needs: Kimbrel, Pomerantz, Sale, and pursued them. I imagine that in this situation, as the determined pursuer of high-end talent, DD made the first offer and, in consequence, paid a higher price than might seem necessary. In essence, DD paid in prospects to rebuilding teams, SD and the W Sox, to be good now while they were building for the future. Both teams, because they had different goals, could see a deal of this sort as a win-win: I get better today; you get better tomorrow.
CB is in essentially the opposite position from DD. He holds the established player that other teams are apparently pursuing. What gives him leverage is that this is not an obvious trade for him to make. CV is a good player at a difficult position to fill, and his contract is good for two years (I think) and relatively inexpensive. How much is such a player worth? My guess is that Bloom let's it be known that he is listening to offers, and he sits back and waits for them to come. They'll establish CV's value to other teams. If offers don't come, that's fine. He's happy with what he's got. Eventually, though, a hypothetical, the Angels come and offer Marsh and Rodriguez. It's tempting: they are good prospects who might fill positions of need for the Sox. CB says, "No." He wants more. I don't see CB making a counter-offer at first. Patience and silence are virtues here. Maybe, who knows, after years of disappointment, the Angels will feel some desperation and so come back (the Red Sox dream) and offer to substitute Adell for Marsh ... If they don't, then, as imagined in the beginning, CB is happy to hold on to CV and wait for a better offer.
It seems to me that the negotiations for Beni worked out in something of this way. CB listened to a number of offers but none of them were good enough until KC came along.
I think CV is staying, but if he does go, my bet is that the trade will be a good one for the Sox. CB holds all the cards here.
To echo something Chris mentioned above: Jhonny Pereda is an under-the-radar catching prospect who might not be that far away. He seems ahead of Wong and Hernandez in development and to have played very well this winter.
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Post by chr31ter on Feb 27, 2021 16:09:24 GMT -5
I'm thinking that anyone they don't have control over in 2023 is a trade candidate.
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 27, 2021 16:50:35 GMT -5
My guess is that they'll always listen, but there are some guys they are in no hurry to move ...
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,984
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Post by jimoh on Feb 28, 2021 13:37:10 GMT -5
I think a CV trade only makes sense if a serious contender has a C who is too young or a little bit hurt so that their guy is not playable for 2021 but can play for us in 2022. I don't think any of the C prospects will be ready in 2022, and I don't think we will make any trades that will stop us from contending in 2022.
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Post by britalb on Feb 28, 2021 16:47:58 GMT -5
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 28, 2021 17:10:18 GMT -5
I wouldn't want CV moved personally. Couple of reasons. 1, is not many combo of good hitting/catching and throwing receivers in the game as it is and 2. Vazquez is one who likes it in Boston, saying multiple times he wants to remain, which means he may take a slight discount in terms of $$ and years to remain in any extension. Should Bloom look to move him, which his name was rumored to have come up last year's trade deadline, I expect the price to be quite expensive, as in a player ready (or nearly) to step right into the lineup/rotation and more is so rare catcher's of his ilk, with 2y of control being paid so little. He wants to stay....keep him!.....and make him a reasonable offer in years and $ (unlike what they did with Lester).
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