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History of Red Sox Reliever Trades
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Post by incandenza on Mar 2, 2021 20:20:36 GMT -5
Here's a project for an extremely bored person (or eric): how have the Red Sox done in all trades that were primarily built around a reliever in the last 35 years? From Andersen through Slocumb to Melancon, Kimbrel, and Workman/Hembree. I feel like Workman/Hembree has a chance to put us into the black on balance.
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Post by manfred on Mar 2, 2021 20:25:29 GMT -5
Here's a project for an extremely bored person (or eric): how have the Red Sox done in all trades that were primarily built around a reliever in the last 35 years? From Andersen through Slocumb to Melancon, Kimbrel, and Workman/Hembree. I feel like Workman/Hembree has a chance to put us into the black on balance. You sent me back to the Melancon chain... definitely a net loss (but maybe not ssoooo bad), working out basically to Lowrie for Holt. But wow... a lot of stuff in there. Hanrahan.... woosh. Those were dark days in the eternal quest for a closer. |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 2, 2021 20:27:58 GMT -5
The parallel to dream on for the Pivetta-Sebold trade, where we found a team that needed relief help and they gave us two players they were not high on who turned out to have big upside, is when we traded "proven closer" Heathcliff Slocumb for the semi-promising Derek Lowe (6.96 ERA in 12 games for Seattle at age 24) and 25YO ok-looking-but-needs-work-on-both-O-and-D catcher Jason Varitek. (Slocumb actually pitched Ok after the trade, better than before the trade)
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 2, 2021 21:01:17 GMT -5
Here's a project for an extremely bored person (or eric): how have the Red Sox done in all trades that were primarily built around a reliever in the last 35 years? From Andersen through Slocumb to Melancon, Kimbrel, and Workman/Hembree. I feel like Workman/Hembree has a chance to put us into the black on balance. You sent me back to the Melancon chain... definitely a net loss (but maybe not ssoooo bad), working out basically to Lowrie for Holt. But wow... a lot of stuff in there. Hanrahan.... woosh. Those were dark days in the eternal quest for a closer. The Sox have been a buyer of relievers, and buying relievers is risky business. It's not a coincidence that their most successful trade in recent memory involving relief pitching was when they were the ones giving up the guy (Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez). Put another way - losing relief pitcher trades is at some level a symptom of being good, and thus pursuing trades for relievers in the first place. The BoSox haven't had much opportunity to sell relievers over the past 20 years. |
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Post by incandenza on Mar 2, 2021 21:14:19 GMT -5
You sent me back to the Melancon chain... definitely a net loss (but maybe not ssoooo bad), working out basically to Lowrie for Holt. But wow... a lot of stuff in there. Hanrahan.... woosh. Those were dark days in the eternal quest for a closer. The Sox have been a buyer of relievers, and buying relievers is risky business. It's not a coincidence that their most successful trade in recent memory involving relief pitching was when they were the ones giving up the guy (Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez). Put another way - losing relief pitcher trades is at some level a symptom of being good, and thus pursuing trades for relievers in the first place. The BoSox haven't had much opportunity to sell relievers over the past 20 years. Forgot about Miller for Rodriguez! Between Slocumb, Miller, and (hopefully) Workman/Hembree, it's actually a pretty impressive hit rate on the occasions when we have had the opportunity to sell relievers. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 2, 2021 21:59:58 GMT -5
Here's a project for an extremely bored person (or eric): how have the Red Sox done in all trades that were primarily built around a reliever in the last 35 years? From Andersen through Slocumb to Melancon, Kimbrel, and Workman/Hembree. I feel like Workman/Hembree has a chance to put us into the black on balance. Someone else can have the project, but can tell u go to like 1990 and back and relievers were a dime a dozen unless some marquee guy. i remembered some boston had from way back, looked them up and cost was laughable. Johnny Wyatt, who was best reliever Boston had in '67 cost them pretty much nothing and was tremendous for 2 seasons, before being given away for cash. Greg Harris, some may remember as a guy who would eventually throw from both sides during a game (not with Boston), tho he did wear a 6 fingered glove while playing for them was a waiver claim. Mark Clear and Carney Lansford came in the Rick Burleson +Hobson deal. Not free, but Clear had the most wicked curve ever saw. He called it "the cleaver". I don't mind doing the 1990 back, but forget about newer ones.. |
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 2, 2021 22:33:03 GMT -5
Here's a project for an extremely bored person (or eric): how have the Red Sox done in all trades that were primarily built around a reliever in the last 35 years? From Andersen through Slocumb to Melancon, Kimbrel, and Workman/Hembree. I feel like Workman/Hembree has a chance to put us into the black on balance. Someone else can have the project, but can tell u go to like 1990 and back and relievers were a dime a dozen unless some marquee guy. i remembered some boston had from way back, looked them up and cost was laughable. Johnny Wyatt, who was best reliever Boston had in '67 cost them pretty much nothing and was tremendous for 2 seasons, before being given away for cash. Greg Harris, some may remember as a guy who would eventually throw from both sides during a game (not with Boston), tho he did wear a 6 fingered glove while playing for them was a waiver claim. Mark Clear and Carney Lansford came in the Rick Burleson +Hobson deal. Not free, but Clear had the most wicked curve ever saw. He called it "the cleaver". I don't mind doing the 1990 back, but forget about newer ones.. Not sure why you are not "longjohnsilver" given your astounding memory of decades past. Yup I too remember Mark Clear. Wow! What a curve (cleaver)!!....Physics defying... other worldly. He did have some command issues but jeez was he fun to watch! Greg Harris was another guy with a 12-6....different era I guess. Thanks for the trip down memory lane and affirmation that I do not yet have dementia. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 4, 2021 10:00:31 GMT -5
Here's a project for an extremely bored person (or eric): how have the Red Sox done in all trades that were primarily built around a reliever in the last 35 years? From Andersen through Slocumb to Melancon, Kimbrel, and Workman/Hembree. I feel like Workman/Hembree has a chance to put us into the black on balance. Well, the memory consensus is that the team trading for a reliever almost always loses, right? We have the Slocumb, Miller, and Workman / Hembree deals as sellers, and the Bagwell, Reddick, and Lowrie deals as buyers. One that didn't get mentioned: David Murphy for Eric Gagne. 10.8 bWAR in his first 5 seasons (before a -0.3 in his last) versus -0.2 in 18,2 IP.
I'm putting this project in my research queue, in a position low enough that it will never get done. 
Meanwhile, can we start a PTBNL speculation thread and move everything from the Benny trade and this one into it?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 10:29:38 GMT -5
Well, the memory consensus is that the team trading for a reliever almost always loses, right? We have the Slocumb, Miller, and Workman / Hembree deals as sellers, and the Bagwell, Reddick, and Lowrie deals as buyers. One that didn't get mentioned: David Murphy for Eric Gagne. 10.8 bWAR in his first 5 seasons (before a -0.3 in his last) versus -0.2 in 18,2 IP.
I'm putting this project in my research queue, in a position low enough that it will never get done.
Meanwhile, can we start a PTBNL speculation thread and move everything from the Benny trade and this one into it?
Is there a good method for evaluating these trades? Just adding bWAR of the players involved seems to indicate that almost all trades are bad, but these trades keep happening so teams must have some other measure. Any idea what math the teams are doing to justify the trades? Well the reason a team would make the trade in the first place is because they're in go-for-it-now mode, so they're deliberately exchanging future value for present, right? And even if you sign the best reliever in the world you're not going to get that much WAR value out of him in just a season or two.
So you'd definitely want to go beyond WAR, and it would probably involve a degree of subjective judgment. Like, was the Gagne trade worth it? Obviously not because he sucked. But the team did in fact win the World Series that season. If Gagne had actually helped them to do that, would it have been worth sacrificing Murphy's 10-WAR future? You could make the case.
But I don't think you can reduce it to simply a question of "math."
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 4, 2021 14:35:07 GMT -5
Not mentioning a reliever the Red Sox traded away in Spring Training of 1972 for a light-hitting first baseman is a good way to avoid pain.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 4, 2021 14:47:36 GMT -5
Not mentioning a reliever the Red Sox traded away in Spring Training of 1972 for a light-hitting first baseman is a good way to avoid pain. I'll put the best spin I can put on this one. The trade of which you speak did yield a PTBNL as a pity gesture by you-know-who which yielded forgettable Mario Guerrero. He was then turned around for a guy who DID contribute to a pennant winning Red Sox team, a reliever by the name of Jim Willoughby, who probably should have been kept in to pitch the 9th inning of Game 7, particularly after he mowed down the Reds in order during the 8th inning. Maybe if they did, perhaps the Sox might have won. That's about as much lipstick as I can apply to that pig of a trade they made that you're referring to. |
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Post by soxin8 on Mar 4, 2021 15:53:42 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Mar 4, 2021 16:03:58 GMT -5
As god is my witness, I have absolutely no memory of Billy Wagner being on the Boston Red Sox.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 4, 2021 16:13:44 GMT -5
As god is my witness, I have absolutely no memory of Billy Wagner being on the Boston Red Sox. Very vague memories for me but I remember him being nasty (as always) |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 4, 2021 16:45:54 GMT -5
As god is my witness, I have absolutely no memory of Billy Wagner being on the Boston Red Sox. I remember how CRAZY it was for the other team (Mets?) to give away that first round pick. |
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Post by manfred on Mar 4, 2021 18:28:17 GMT -5
As god is my witness, I have absolutely no memory of Billy Wagner being on the Boston Red Sox. I remember how CRAZY it was for the other team (Mets?) to give away that first round pick. Maybe they knew it would be Anthony Raunado? 😬 |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2021 22:20:31 GMT -5
No Byung Hyun Kim for Shea Hillenbrand yet?
And who remembers the real reason it was a great trade?
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dcb65
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Post by dcb65 on Mar 4, 2021 22:26:55 GMT -5
Was that the deal that got Ortiz into the lineup?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 4, 2021 22:28:38 GMT -5
No Byung Hyun Kim for Shea Hillenbrand yet? And who remembers the real reason it was a great trade? Because Shea...is a dick. And BK was fun to watch Hillenbrand is one of the more unheralded clubhouse cancers of the last couple decades |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2021 22:40:41 GMT -5
No Byung Hyun Kim for Shea Hillenbrand yet? And who remembers the real reason it was a great trade? Because Shea...is a dick. And BK was fun to watch Hillenbrand is one of the more unheralded clubhouse cancers of the last couple decades Was looking for the Ortiz answer (Mueller now full-time at 3B, Millar at 1B, DH open for Papi), but yeah, that was apparently true as well. Kim never gets his due for settling the bullpen down in the regular season because he pitched in just one postseason game due to injury and had the whole middle finger to the fans incident. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 4, 2021 23:55:36 GMT -5
Because Shea...is a dick. And BK was fun to watch Hillenbrand is one of the more unheralded clubhouse cancers of the last couple decades Was looking for the Ortiz answer (Mueller now full-time at 3B, Millar at 1B, DH open for Papi), but yeah, that was apparently true as well. Kim never gets his due for settling the bullpen down in the regular season because he pitched in just one postseason game due to injury and had the whole middle finger to the fans incident. Fun fact about BK- after not pitching for a few years he popped up in Melbourne in 2018 and was teammates with Jake Romanski, Harrison Cooney, and Daniel McGrath. He pitched 9 great innings. That wasn’t all that long ago which is wild |
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Post by incandenza on Mar 5, 2021 0:49:04 GMT -5
No Byung Hyun Kim for Shea Hillenbrand yet? And who remembers the real reason it was a great trade? Because Shea...is a dick. And BK was fun to watch Hillenbrand is one of the more unheralded clubhouse cancers of the last couple decades Hmm, I don't know the stories but I see he played for 6 teams in his 7-year career and was traded mid-season 3 times... |
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Post by slam761 on Mar 5, 2021 1:27:37 GMT -5
As god is my witness, I have absolutely no memory of Billy Wagner being on the Boston Red Sox. I mostly just remember him from the ALDS game he and Papelbon blew for us that led to a sweep. We were in a great position to at least get 1 win that series and then the two of them combined for 5 runs allowed in the final 2 innings. Definitely can't complain about how he did in the regular season though. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 5, 2021 1:36:57 GMT -5
As god is my witness, I have absolutely no memory of Billy Wagner being on the Boston Red Sox. I mostly just remember him from the ALDS game he and Papelbon blew for us that led to a sweep. We were in a great position to at least get 1 win that series and then the two of them combined for 5 runs allowed in the final 2 innings. Definitely can't complain about how he did in the regular season though. I don’t recall the exact details but Wagner was an August waiver claim. He initially vetoed the deal. Took some time but the Sox had to agree not to pick up his option. Ended up offering Arb and getting a comp pick. Can’t remember who but I think it was Brentz, Workman or Renaudo. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 5, 2021 1:40:35 GMT -5
I mostly just remember him from the ALDS game he and Papelbon blew for us that led to a sweep. We were in a great position to at least get 1 win that series and then the two of them combined for 5 runs allowed in the final 2 innings. Definitely can't complain about how he did in the regular season though. I don’t recall the exact details but Wagner was an August waiver claim. He initially vetoed the deal. Took some time but the Sox had to agree not to pick up his option. Ended up offering Arb and getting a comp pick. Can’t remember who but I think it was Brentz, Workman or Renaudo. Same memory of that game that I have. You might recall that after Wagner allowed a run to get the game from 6-3 to 6-4, Papelbon got the first two outs of the 9th - and then melted down to give up 3 runs after 2 were out with nobody on - the same two run situation the Sox had in 86. Papelbon did almost the same damn thing in 2011 getting the first two outs against the O's before giving up 2 runs on 2 doubles and a bloop hit to Robert Andino that Carl Crawford couldn't catch. I remember being thrilled to get Wagner. He was one of my favorite relievers. I know he's borderline, but I like him for the HOF. He truly was one of the best closers. |
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