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Opening Day roster projection - MLB
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 14, 2021 18:06:46 GMT -5
Barring any further injuries, I'd say the 26 man roster is all set.
I'd guess that Cordero starts the season on the IL and that Marwin Gonzalez is starting LF against righties, if not lefties as well.
So I'd peg the regulars as:
C: Vazquez
1b: Dalbec
2b: Hernandez
ss: Bogaerts
3b: Devers
lf: Gonzalez
cf: Verdugo
rf: Renfroe
dh: Martinez
The three man bench will be: Plawecki, Arroyo, and Chavis (why do I feel like I'm missing somebody - not Santana nor Munoz who's not on the 40 man, who would bump Chavis down to AAA?)
The starting staff:
Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta
The 9 man bullpen (With Brasier on the IL):
Barnes, Ottavino, Sawamura, D. Hernandez, Taylor, Andriese, Whitlock, Valdez, and Brice (I don't think Brewer makes it unless someboody else gets injured).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 14, 2021 19:05:14 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 14, 2021 19:45:40 GMT -5
Then if that's the case, I think Arroyo will get more of an audition than some would anticipate. Doesn't mean he wouldn't be a casualty if he doesn't set the world on fire and Cordero gets ready, others stay healthy, and Santana is ready to come up. But I think he'll get some ABs against lefties early on with Kiké in CF. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 14, 2021 22:22:56 GMT -5
If Franchy isn't ready to go, does it make any sense to replace a missing OFer with a fourth guys who can play 2B? I'd rather see them try to sneak Shreiber through waivers (very likely, I think), select Munoz, and start him in LF on at least some days vs. RHP. He has a higher career wRC+ against RHP than Renfroe does, he's an interesting guy, so why not take a look?.
Even though Chris convinced me of the wisdom of sending Houck to the ATS, the increased velo creates a real possibility that he's your best multi-inning reliever, and in that role there would be plenty of chances to work on the splitter. So I think the Brasier spot is not yet Valdez's.
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Re who plays where, Cora revealed that in Fenway, his OF alignment vs. LHP is Kiké in LF, Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF. He mentioned that on the road in certain parks with a big LF, Renfroe would be in LF, meaning Kiké in CF and Verdugo in RF.
Folks in the media are catching on to Arroyo getting a real shot at 2B vs. RHP at least. Cora talked more about Kiké finishing games at 2B than starting them, and that makes sense only if Arroyo is at 2B, and the guy you are bringing in for OF defense is Renfroe.
So I took a wild-ass guess and figured that Arroyo starts 70% of the games versus RHP (which puts Kiké in CF and Verdugo in RF), with Renfroe in RF and Kiké at 2B in the other 30%. And that they would use Renfroe in LF in one game out of four on the road.
That works out to Kiké starting 51% of the games in CF and Verdugo 49%, and Verdugo starting 51% of the games in RF and Renfroe 49%. Seriously! If Arroyo starts 2/3 of the games at 2B instead of 70%, Verdugo and Renfroe become the guys with just over 50%.
So I think that nobody knows who will end up starting the most games in CF or RF and especially not at 2B. Duran coming up at mid-year (in our dreams) likely makes him the guy who starts the most games in CF and Kiké the plurality 2B. Unless Santana (or even Chavis) has seized it from Arroyo in the meantime.
The most amusing scenario is where Kiké and Verdugo split CF equally until August, when Duran takes over. That's three guys each starting 50+ games there, equally.
The flexibility to move guys in and out of the lineup because of matchups is something I find really exciting. But when you have two to four guys (counting Chavis and Munoz) in the minors itching to put themselves in the mix as well, that's insanely interesting. You have one or two (if they revert to 13 pitchers at some point) roster spots with Arroyo, Santana and Duran as serious candidates and Munoz and Chavis as longshots, all guys with intriguing upside.
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fenwayfaithful
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Mar 14, 2021 23:19:46 GMT -5
Barring any further injuries, I'd say the 26 man roster is all set. I'd guess that Cordero starts the season on the IL and that Marwin Gonzalez is starting LF against righties, if not lefties as well. So I'd peg the regulars as: C: Vazquez 1b: Dalbec 2b: Hernandez ss: Bogaerts 3b: Devers lf: Gonzalez cf: Verdugo rf: Renfroe dh: Martinez The three man bench will be: Plawecki, Arroyo, and Chavis (why do I feel like I'm missing somebody - not Santana nor Munoz who's not on the 40 man, who would bump Chavis down to AAA?) The starting staff: Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta The 9 man bullpen (With Brasier on the IL): Barnes, Ottavino, Sawamura, D. Hernandez, Taylor, Andriese, Whitlock, Valdez, and Brice (I don't think Brewer makes it unless someboody else gets injured). I really would like Kiki in CF, Verdugo in RF and Arroyo at 2nd base.Renfroe is a 1 year rental he shouldn’t be taking time from anyone. Just fill in when he’s needed. If Arroyo busts then move Kiki to 2nd but Arroyo has way more potential then Renfroe. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 15, 2021 0:28:24 GMT -5
Barring any further injuries, I'd say the 26 man roster is all set. I'd guess that Cordero starts the season on the IL and that Marwin Gonzalez is starting LF against righties, if not lefties as well. So I'd peg the regulars as: C: Vazquez 1b: Dalbec 2b: Hernandez ss: Bogaerts 3b: Devers lf: Gonzalez cf: Verdugo rf: Renfroe dh: Martinez The three man bench will be: Plawecki, Arroyo, and Chavis (why do I feel like I'm missing somebody - not Santana nor Munoz who's not on the 40 man, who would bump Chavis down to AAA?) The starting staff: Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta The 9 man bullpen (With Brasier on the IL): Barnes, Ottavino, Sawamura, D. Hernandez, Taylor, Andriese, Whitlock, Valdez, and Brice (I don't think Brewer makes it unless someboody else gets injured). I really would like Kiki in CF, Verdugo in RF and Arroyo at 2nd base.Renfroe is a 1 year rental he shouldn’t be taking time from anyone. Just fill in when he’s needed. If Arroyo busts then move Kiki to 2nd but Arroyo has way more potential then Renfroe. I don't know if I'd go that far. Arroyo could blossom into an everyday 2b with some pop, but the odds are against it. Renfroe, if he could hold his own against righties, would be a guy capable of whacking 35 or more homers while playing solid defense, so I don't know that Arroyo's ceiling is much higher. That said, I don't expect Renfroe to hold his own against righties either. Most likely at some point during the season Renfroe will probably be relegated to being the short end of a platoon and most likely Arroyo winds up with a tenuous hold on a roster spot. I would guess at some point in the second half that Cora is platooning two of the outfield spots. I can see an outfield alignment of Cordero/Duran/Verdugo against righties and an outfield alignment of Renfroe/Hernandez/Verdugo against lefties. In the latter scenario, Arroyo could get some action at 2b. I would anticipate Hernandez would get the majority of the action against righties at 2b, but then again if Arroyo plays better than expected he could cut into some of that time and maintain that if Hernandez winds up being needed more for CF than 2b, especially if Duran's defense takes awhile and his bat doesn't light up AAA pitching. And like I said, there's also the possibility of Renfroe getting regular ABs and getting to earn more time against righties, although he doesn't have the track record to maintain that. And at some point Santana probably factors in somewhere and the Sox are going to get Marwin Gonzalez some ABs (I can see him starting out the season in LF and being the primary backup to Dalbec and getting some time at 2b as well. It'll be interesting to see how Cora balances playing time and who earns more time. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 15, 2021 0:40:49 GMT -5
I really would like Kiki in CF, Verdugo in RF and Arroyo at 2nd base.Renfroe is a 1 year rental he shouldn’t be taking time from anyone. Just fill in when he’s needed. If Arroyo busts then move Kiki to 2nd but Arroyo has way more potential then Renfroe. I don't know if I'd go that far. Arroyo could blossom into an everyday 2b with some pop, but the odds are against it. Renfroe, if he could hold his own against righties, would be a guy capable of whacking 35 or more homers while playing solid defense, so I don't know that Arroyo's ceiling is much higher. That said, I don't expect Renfroe to hold his own against righties either. Most likely at some point during the season Renfroe will probably be relegated to being the short end of a platoon and most likely Arroyo winds up with a tenuous hold on a roster spot. I would guess at some point in the second half that Cora is platooning two of the outfield spots. I can see an outfield alignment of Cordero/Duran/Verdugo against righties and an outfield alignment of Renfroe/Hernandez/Verdugo against lefties. In the latter scenario, Arroyo could get some action at 2b. I would anticipate Hernandez would get the majority of the action against righties at 2b, but then again if Arroyo plays better than expected he could cut into some of that time and maintain that if Hernandez winds up being needed more for CF than 2b, especially if Duran's defense takes awhile and his bat doesn't light up AAA pitching. And like I said, there's also the possibility of Renfroe getting regular ABs and getting to earn more time against righties, although he doesn't have the track record to maintain that. And at some point Santana probably factors in somewhere and the Sox are going to get Marwin Gonzalez some ABs (I can see him starting out the season in LF and being the primary backup to Dalbec and getting some time at 2b as well. It'll be interesting to see how Cora balances playing time and who earns more time. There are a lot of potential moving parts and possibilities. Of those I don’t see to many that have Arroyo having much success. It is possible, but a very big question. Less of a question but still a question is Renfroe. This is not a rental. Still has 2 years of service. He ha averaged close to 30 HRs a year. Much greater chance of success than Arroyo. |
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Post by manfred on Mar 15, 2021 12:49:02 GMT -5
I see the logic of stretching Houck in the minors, but the more I watch the Sox starters, the more I think having a guy who is ready to piggy back 2-3 innings is going to be key. Eovaldi, Richards, and Pivetta all seem to work really hard every inning... deep counts etc. I could see them all being pretty hard 5 inning guys. I think Eric is right that Houck has the makings of the best long guy, and truthfully I am not sure the bullpen won’t be where he winds up anyway.
Anyway... the Sox are going to need to identify a guy for that role, I think, because they will be filling a lot of innings with relievers. Of the starters, ERod looks like the only one I think can regularly go 7.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 15, 2021 13:32:39 GMT -5
I see the logic of stretching Houck in the minors, but the more I watch the Sox starters, the more I think having a guy who is ready to piggy back 2-3 innings is going to be key. Eovaldi, Richards, and Pivetta all seem to work really hard every inning... deep counts etc. I could see them all being pretty hard 5 inning guys. I think Eric is right that Houck has the makings of the best long guy, and truthfully I am not sure the bullpen won’t be where he winds up anyway. Anyway... the Sox are going to need to identify a guy for that role, I think, because they will be filling a lot of innings with relievers. Of the starters, ERod looks like the only one I think can regularly go 7. Aren't Andriese and Whitlock exactly what you're talking about? Plus with a 14-man staff (remember, we're used to 12 typically, so they basically have a normal bullpen plus two long guys) having a short outing isn't going to kill you for the next night, even if you don't use one of the long guys. If a guy only goes 3 before needing to be yanked, if you can navigate the next 6 with 4 guys, you've not even used half of your bullpen. If, say, Whitlock comes on and gives you 3 innings, then you're in normal territory anyway and it's not a problem. That said, if they got into a really bad spot with 2 or 3 short starts in a short period of time, I could easily see them calling up Houck. There would just need to be someone on the IL, because the bullpen at full strength has nobody you can send down, really, unless Taylor or Darwinzon is pitching really poorly. Now, if you have to use both Andriese and Whitlock in long relief in a short span but were hoping to use one for a spot start that week... voila, Houck. |
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Post by manfred on Mar 15, 2021 13:49:51 GMT -5
I see the logic of stretching Houck in the minors, but the more I watch the Sox starters, the more I think having a guy who is ready to piggy back 2-3 innings is going to be key. Eovaldi, Richards, and Pivetta all seem to work really hard every inning... deep counts etc. I could see them all being pretty hard 5 inning guys. I think Eric is right that Houck has the makings of the best long guy, and truthfully I am not sure the bullpen won’t be where he winds up anyway. Anyway... the Sox are going to need to identify a guy for that role, I think, because they will be filling a lot of innings with relievers. Of the starters, ERod looks like the only one I think can regularly go 7. Aren't Andriese and Whitlock exactly what you're talking about? Plus with a 14-man staff (remember, we're used to 12 typically, so they basically have a normal bullpen plus two long guys) having a short outing isn't going to kill you for the next night, even if you don't use one of the long guys. If a guy only goes 3 before needing to be yanked, if you can navigate the next 6 with 4 guys, you've not even used half of your bullpen. If, say, Whitlock comes on and gives you 3 innings, then you're in normal territory anyway and it's not a problem. That said, if they got into a really bad spot with 2 or 3 short starts in a short period of time, I could easily see them calling up Houck. There would just need to be someone on the IL, because the bullpen at full strength has nobody you can send down, really, unless Taylor or Darwinzon is pitching really poorly. Now, if you have to use both Andriese and Whitlock in long relief in a short span but were hoping to use one for a spot start that week... voila, Houck. Andriese, true. Fair point. Whitlock I guess is the backup? Like... if you use Andriese for three on Monday and need another guy on Tuesday? But he is a real wild card... as you’ve noted elsewhere, he’d almost certainly not be in the conversation for opening day if he weren’t a Rule 5. But, yeah, I was overlooking Andriese — though I think Houck is better. But maybe he is better enough that it is, again, the reason to stretch him out. It is funny — for all the talk of mixing and matching with the lineup, I think the pitching could have some strange combinations, too. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 15, 2021 15:11:01 GMT -5
Aren't Andriese and Whitlock exactly what you're talking about? Plus with a 14-man staff (remember, we're used to 12 typically, so they basically have a normal bullpen plus two long guys) having a short outing isn't going to kill you for the next night, even if you don't use one of the long guys. If a guy only goes 3 before needing to be yanked, if you can navigate the next 6 with 4 guys, you've not even used half of your bullpen. If, say, Whitlock comes on and gives you 3 innings, then you're in normal territory anyway and it's not a problem. That said, if they got into a really bad spot with 2 or 3 short starts in a short period of time, I could easily see them calling up Houck. There would just need to be someone on the IL, because the bullpen at full strength has nobody you can send down, really, unless Taylor or Darwinzon is pitching really poorly. Now, if you have to use both Andriese and Whitlock in long relief in a short span but were hoping to use one for a spot start that week... voila, Houck. Andriese, true. Fair point. Whitlock I guess is the backup? Like... if you use Andriese for three on Monday and need another guy on Tuesday? But he is a real wild card... as you’ve noted elsewhere, he’d almost certainly not be in the conversation for opening day if he weren’t a Rule 5. But, yeah, I was overlooking Andriese — though I think Houck is better. But maybe he is better enough that it is, again, the reason to stretch him out. It is funny — for all the talk of mixing and matching with the lineup, I think the pitching could have some strange combinations, too. This whole roster is going to test the heck out of Alex Cora. This isn't a roster where you have 9 guys getting 500 ABs with set positions, a settled closer spot, etc. He's going to have a heckuva lot of decisions to make. A lot of interchangeable parts. The Sox won't be toward the top with individual players/positions but they should have a higher floor than other teams as they have the depth thing really covered, viable players that aren't that bad unlike the below replacement level players they had last year. |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2021 15:34:48 GMT -5
I really would like Kiki in CF, Verdugo in RF and Arroyo at 2nd base.Renfroe is a 1 year rental he shouldn’t be taking time from anyone. Just fill in when he’s needed. If Arroyo busts then move Kiki to 2nd but Arroyo has way more potential then Renfroe. Renfroe could be a one-year rental, but they can keep him for two more years of arbitration. He hit 33 hr in 2019 and is said to play good defense in RF and not embarrassing defense in CF. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 15, 2021 17:21:53 GMT -5
I really would like Kiki in CF, Verdugo in RF and Arroyo at 2nd base.Renfroe is a 1 year rental he shouldn’t be taking time from anyone. Just fill in when he’s needed. If Arroyo busts then move Kiki to 2nd but Arroyo has way more potential then Renfroe. Renfroe could be a one-year rental, but they can keep him for two more years of arbitration. He hit 33 hr in 2019 and is sad to play good defense in RF and not embarrassing defense in CF. Hope he gets over his sadness of playing good defense in RF and plays well there anyways.  |
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 15, 2021 21:30:53 GMT -5
Re who plays where, Cora revealed that in Fenway, his OF alignment vs. LHP is Kiké in LF, Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF. He mentioned that on the road in certain parks with a big LF, Renfroe would be in LF, meaning Kiké in CF and Verdugo in RF. Mind posting the source of Cora saying this, particularly RE: Renfroe taking the big LF's on the road? I love this kind of stuff and am fascinated to see the alignments they deploy, but I really don't buy the Renfroe hype as the #1 defensive outfielder (if that's a thing). I know he had an insanely high-graded 2019, but based on DRS/UZR/Statcast metrics, I don't understand how you prioritize him over Verdugo in the toughest OF spots. For example, if it's Yankee stadium, I'm going Verdugo/Hernandez/Renfroe or Hernandez/Verdugo/Renfroe. I don't know what scenario, Fenway or elsewhere, I'd go Renfroe in center field or in a tough left field over the other two. I guess if Verdugo and Hernandez were out of the lineup and you were left with Franchy, Renfroe, Marwin, and Arroyo, then sure, but we're virtually never going to see that assortment. McCaffrey had a tweet referencing Renfroe playing "center and left" where she meant "center and right", and there's this Cotillo article (quoted below), but I can't find much else. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 16, 2021 0:32:24 GMT -5
You're citing where he said it. Those and other tweets reports are from the same press conference (nobody is getting interviewed outside of the Zoom availability everyone is on right now, so there's not much original reporting happening). The implication was that in a park like the Stadium he'll be inclined to put his best two OF defenders in LF and CF, that being Verdugo and Renfroe.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 16, 2021 7:48:21 GMT -5
And right on cue...
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 16, 2021 12:48:31 GMT -5
You're citing where he said it. Those and other tweets reports are from the same press conference (nobody is getting interviewed outside of the Zoom availability everyone is on right now, so there's not much original reporting happening). The implication was that in a park like the Stadium he'll be inclined to put his best two OF defenders in LF and CF, that being Verdugo and Renfroe. Gotcha, I figured. To be clear, that doesn't fully jive with Eric's stated LF Renfroe/RF Verdugo alignment at Yankee Stadium. Verdugo is at worst in a tie for your best defensive OF, so I'm not sure why we'd project him in RF in the Bronx. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 16, 2021 14:18:34 GMT -5
You're citing where he said it. Those and other tweets reports are from the same press conference (nobody is getting interviewed outside of the Zoom availability everyone is on right now, so there's not much original reporting happening). The implication was that in a park like the Stadium he'll be inclined to put his best two OF defenders in LF and CF, that being Verdugo and Renfroe. Gotcha, I figured. To be clear, that doesn't fully jive with Eric's stated LF Renfroe/RF Verdugo alignment at Yankee Stadium. Verdugo is at worst in a tie for your best defensive OF, so I'm not sure why we'd project him in RF in the Bronx. Oh. Yeah, that doesn't make sense. |
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 16, 2021 14:37:04 GMT -5
With a guy like Shane Greene still unemployed (available) I think I'd prefer to see the Sox throw a little $ at him instead of rolling with Brice.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 16, 2021 17:07:47 GMT -5
You're citing where he said it. Those and other tweets reports are from the same press conference (nobody is getting interviewed outside of the Zoom availability everyone is on right now, so there's not much original reporting happening). The implication was that in a park like the Stadium he'll be inclined to put his best two OF defenders in LF and CF, that being Verdugo and Renfroe. Gotcha, I figured. To be clear, that doesn't fully jive with Eric's stated LF Renfroe/RF Verdugo alignment at Yankee Stadium. Verdugo is at worst in a tie for your best defensive OF, so I'm not sure why we'd project him in RF in the Bronx. I got mine from the Globe (Abraham, I think), and he had less of what Cora said that Cotillo did. I also wonder whether Cora's intent was misunderstood, because as big as RF in Fenway and LF in Yankee stadium are, they are at most equally hard to play as CF. I mean, no clubs puts their CF in LF in NYC and RF in Fenway, so the whole "best fielder plays there" thing needs to factor in where guys are used to playing.
Renfroe has 15 career innings in CF, compared to 954 in LF and 2257 in RF. I think he's seeing time in CF because there may be games where he ends up playing there after the roster's Magical Utility Powers are invoked.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 16, 2021 18:08:22 GMT -5
FYI, what Cora said about LF is at 5:55 in the below Zoom press conference from yesterday (he mentions Renfroe after talking about Santana for a sec):
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