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2021 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
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Post by patford on Jun 30, 2021 10:16:28 GMT -5
My brain went into lock down and isn't coming out until I hear Aldo is okay.
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Post by henry on Jun 30, 2021 10:29:37 GMT -5
Groome over Mata doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, but as someone who is lower on Groome that may just be my own individual opinion of him. As I see it, even with TJ and the higher reliever risk, when Mata is back, he will still be at a higher level than Groome with a better track record of success at a similar age. Is it just the high end outcome for Groome and the reliever risk for Mata outweighing all of Groome’s detractors?
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Post by vokuhila on Jun 30, 2021 10:32:33 GMT -5
What was the though process behind the Ward slide? He and Mata are both out for the seasosn because of TJ, Mata stayed at 11, Ward dropped from 8 to 20. Is it because of his age?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2021 10:58:10 GMT -5
Update is live. Thanks Ian & Chris Want to take a second to make very clear that the site is a lot more people than me and Ian. We just happen to be the ones who do the podcast. Rankings are compiled by the 4 members of the brass, also including Mike and James. Mike is the one who does the actual updating.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2021 11:02:52 GMT -5
Groome over Mata doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, but as someone who is lower on Groome that may just be my own individual opinion of him. As I see it, even with TJ and the higher reliever risk, when Mata is back, he will still be at a higher level than Groome with a better track record of success at a similar age. Is it just the high end outcome for Groome and the reliever risk for Mata outweighing all of Groome’s detractors? The two are pretty close. Groome is starting to work a bit deeper and is showing encouraging signs with his K rate going up and BB rate going down. For Mata, meanwhile, it's not just the TJS - he hasn't had a season without a major injury of some kind in years. Stuff is probably better but the fact Groome is kind of trending up slipped him past Mata for now. Your thoughts certainly aren't incorrect though. FWIW, 3 of the 4 rankers had them 10 and 11 in the order they are now and the other had Mata higher. What was the though process behind the Ward slide? He and Mata are both out for the seasosn because of TJ, Mata stayed at 11, Ward dropped from 8 to 20. Is it because of his age? You basically hit it. Ward is basically going to be 26 when he comes back (given the timeline, next year is basically lost at this point, most likely, save for perhaps a cup of coffee late in the year) and will have 8 innings above A-ball. Different situation from Mata, who had his surgery almost 2 months earlier and might pitch more innings next year at age 23. Missing those two years is just a brutal hit for Ward.
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 30, 2021 19:50:50 GMT -5
Update is live. Thanks Ian & Chris Want to take a second to make very clear that the site is a lot more people than me and Ian. We just happen to be the ones who do the podcast. Rankings are compiled by the 4 members of the brass, also including Mike and James. Mike is the one who does the actual updating. Thanks Mike James Ian & Chris
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 30, 2021 22:22:36 GMT -5
It's hard to keep track of the 10 guys who dropped out of the Top 60
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 1, 2021 8:30:36 GMT -5
It's hard to keep track of the 10 guys who dropped out of the Top 60 There were four: Gonsalves (55), Espinal (56), Cellucci (59), Reed (60) Although I guess the PTBNLs pushed three out during the middle of the month. That was, I think, Vaughan, Van Belle, and Shugart. And I think you're probably referring to the guys who've fallen out since the start of the year, because 3 dropped out in June, Gettys, Flores, and Jackson.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jul 1, 2021 12:46:44 GMT -5
June was hot and so were the Sox. The weather is cooler today. Fingers tightly crossed. - Duran and Downs have switched places in the rankings, now respectively at 2 & 3.
- Brayan Bello is up to #7 from 9 last month and 24th in May.
- Jay Groome rose from 14 to squeak back into top 10 at # 10.
- Branier Bonaci moved from 16 to 13.
- Blaze Jordan is at 14, up 4.
- Josh Winckowski continues his rise from 33 in April, to 27 in May, 24 in June, and 15 now.
- Chris Murphy is at 16, up 7.
- Newcomer Freddy Valdez is ranked for the fist time at 18.
- Brandon Howlett up 12 spots, landing at #21.
- Ronaldo Hernandez fell from 13 to 22.
- Eduard Bazardo at 23, down 3.
- Jason Rosario is down 5, now at # 24.
- Jonathan Arauz and Hudson Potts at 25 & 26 are both down 4.
- Eduardo Lopez jumped from 39 to 31.
- Grant Gambrell, another June newbie, is at 33.
- Jeremy Wu-Yelland is up 7 to #36.
- Cameron Cannon fell from 35 to 39.
- Jaxx Groshans, last ranked # 57 in December of '19, leaped back onto the list at 42.
- AJ Politi is at 43, down 12.
- Yet another June acquisition, Luis De La Rosa, is at 44.
- Ryan Zeferjahn fell from 42 to 47.
- Jacob Wallace plummeted from 30 to 48. He was 20th last September.
- Kutter Crawford, 56 to 52.
- Wilkelman Gonzalez and Juan Chacon both fell 5 spots to 54 & 50.
- Johan Mieses is ranked for the first time at 56.
- Ryan Fitzgerald returns to the list at # 57, the spot he last occupied in September.
- Christian Koss is at 58, down from 44.
- Kole Cottam fell from 51 to 59.
- Tyler Dearden fills out the top 60, returning for the fist time since July of '19 when he was at 54.
- Dropping out of the rankings this month are:
- Stephen Gonsalves (from 52).
- Raynel Espinal (53)
- Brian Van Belle (55)
- Brendan Celluci (57)
- Eduardo Vaughn (58)
- Chase Shugart (59) (Shugart was # 21 in February of 2019.)
- Tyreque Reed (60)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 1, 2021 12:48:56 GMT -5
FWIW, Valdez (19), Gambrell (30), and LDLR (47) entered the rankings mid-month. BVB, Vaughan, and Shugart exited at that time. (DD, I've got the June ranks in the July sheet on the spreadsheet - you can always copy from there if you'd like!)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 1, 2021 13:05:46 GMT -5
FWIW, Valdez (19), Gambrell (30), and LDLR (47) entered the rankings mid-month. BVB, Vaughan, and Shugart exited at that time. (DD, I've got the June ranks in the July sheet on the spreadsheet - you can always copy from there if you'd like!) A couple moderate surprises to me I'd like to hear your thoughts on: 1. Cannon actually falling in the rankings despite having a pretty solid year 2. Dearden and Mieses only being back end of the top 60. Feel like both of them would at least be around 40 for me, at least just going off of the little I can gleam.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 1, 2021 13:28:34 GMT -5
I have become kind of fascinated by Grant Williams, 2B at Portland. Rarely strikes out. Hitting over.300. Will take a walk. Said to have Pedroia like instincts. This is his best hitting year. If he keeps it up, does he merit inclusion?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 1, 2021 13:48:08 GMT -5
1. Cannon fell from 37 to 39 this month. That's basically negligible. But FWIW, he has kind of turned back into a pumpkin a bit after a strong May, hitting .255/.290/.353 in June. He has been better lately though, so like I said, kind of holding steady there basically.
2. And I wouldn't argue with you much, as it's honestly pretty fungible at that point. If Mieses keeps this up he'll definitely rise. Dearden was a bit wonky because he missed a week and had a pretty bad stretch from late May to mid-June, hitting .229/.345/.333 in 14 games around his injury. He's been pretty feast-or-famine, as his 8 home runs have come in 3 series.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 1, 2021 13:50:40 GMT -5
I have become kind of fascinated by Grant Williams, 2B at Portland. Rarely strikes out. Hitting over.300. Will take a walk. Said to have Pedroia like instincts. This is his best hitting year. If he keeps it up, does he merit inclusion? Maybe at the very back? It's a pretty empty .300. He's not swinging and missing but it's not clear to me he can drive the ball. I'd personally need to see him do something more to put him in my top 60. And disagree with the "will take a walk" part. He has 7 in 143 PA. That's one of the lower rates in the system.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jul 1, 2021 18:03:08 GMT -5
FWIW, Valdez (19), Gambrell (30), and LDLR (47) entered the rankings mid-month. BVB, Vaughan, and Shugart exited at that time. (DD, I've got the June ranks in the July sheet on the spreadsheet - you can always copy from there if you'd like!) Ah! Sorry. I didn't notice you'd done an update on 6/21. I was on vacation and honestly wouldn't have had time (while remaining married) to deal with it even if I'd noticed. My changes refer back to 6/1.
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Post by greenmonsterwhalers on Jul 3, 2021 2:50:26 GMT -5
Why isn't Duran #1 overall? Casas' calling card seems to be his power, but Duran has 15 homers to Casas' 4 this year. Additionaly, Duran has much better speed, plays a premium position defensively, and is in a more advanced league. Is it just because Duran hasn't proved his power and adjustments for long enough yet (since improvements weren't proven in games against other teams last year)? Is he a liability defensively?
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Jul 3, 2021 10:20:06 GMT -5
Why isn't Duran #1 overall? Casas' calling card seems to be his power, but Duran has 15 homers to Casas' 4 this year. Additionaly, Duran has much better speed, plays a premium position defensively, and is in a more advanced league. Is it just because Duran hasn't proved his power and adjustments for long enough yet (since improvements weren't proven in games against other teams last year)? Is he a liability defensively? Forgive me if improper for posting but... I suspect a lot of it has to do with the fact that Casas is seen as a top 30 prospect among most national rankings, while Duran is in the top 50. Duran's rise has been really exciting, but he's significantly older than Casas, suspect at defense (though as the SP podcast discussed, recent reports on Casas haven't been great either), and while the power appears to be average to plus, those 15 homers are in part a product of him home ballpark (not to say he doesn't have power). Duran is really exciting, but Casas is one of the best prospects in baseball, despite a rough month.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,399
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Post by radiohix on Jul 3, 2021 11:29:33 GMT -5
Nick Yorke is going to swap places with Jiminez in the next ranking right? While they're playing at the same level, Yorke's younger, strikes out less, is far more disciplined hitter, makes much more better contact (line drives to all fields instead of the grounders to the ss hole), they both play an up the middle position so the positional adjustment shouldn't count unless Yorke's a butcher down there. Jimenez is faster (a speed that he hasn't turned into a skill yet) and that's it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 4, 2021 11:53:42 GMT -5
Re: Duran and Casas, I don't think you can be wrong with who you prefer right now. I have Casas higher because I still think there's a higher offensive ceiling. Duran has definitely put in work to closing that gap though.
On Jimenez vs Yorke, they aren't really close for me right now. Jimenez has potential to hurt opposing teams in a number of ways, while Yorke's value is tied up in his hit tool entirely. And yeah, he's not a good defender at 2B right now in my very limited look at him, but that squares with what we've heard from scouts. I also harbor suspicion that Jimenez has been playing hurt.
Just as I cautioned against getting too down on Yorke for his poor May, so too do I caution against getting too high on his great June.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 23, 2021 22:01:12 GMT -5
Good luck to you guys. Between the new draft guys and the 2 FCL guys (Winkleman, Ugueto) 5 or so DSL guys who deserve to make the 40-60 list (Salazar, Ronald Rosario, Lionell James, Enderso Lia, Jhostynxon Garcia) you have a big problem. Salazar is at 400 in the DSL, with more BBs than walks, and could shoot up quickly.
More young talent than they've had in a while. They will fill the product list for years to come.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2021 9:22:46 GMT -5
Fwiw, the August update will likely be more like August 7 or 8. Technical issues. Thanks for everyone's patience.
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Post by azblue on Jul 24, 2021 23:51:56 GMT -5
Bleacher Report has an updated top 100 post-draft:
Marcelo Mayer 21 Triston Casas 36 Jeter Downs 62
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Post by azblue on Jul 24, 2021 23:53:58 GMT -5
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ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,375
Member is Online
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 25, 2021 7:22:07 GMT -5
Bleacher Report has an updated top 100 post-draft: Marcelo Mayer 21 Triston Casas 36 Jeter Downs 62 Do they just not count Duran because he's in the majors?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 25, 2021 7:32:51 GMT -5
No he's at 50. Azblue just missed him.
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