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5/28/-5/30 Red Sox vs. Marlins Series Thread
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Post by reasonabledoubt on May 28, 2021 22:16:07 GMT -5
I know this is sacrilegious but it has to be said - not a bad return for Mookie given the circumstances. No it isn't. It is logical. It isn't close to me.... I would EASILY rather have Verdugo and his contract over Betts and his contract...... not even close My previous comment had more to do with the moving one of the most popular home-grown players in decades, an all-star, an MVP, batting champion, gold-glover, and WS champion. Given the circumstances, teams in the Red Sox situation rarely get a nearly equal return when all of the other teams know you "have to" trade the player for financial or other non-baseball reasons. Betts had only 1 year left on his former deal too. Teams wind up having to accept the "best" offer on the table. Thankfully, Stan Papi - Verdugo is not. Forget comparing the contracts for now. I'm talking about the return on the trade. Sure Verdugo's contract is much less - he's, what, several years away (2025) from free agency. Comparing those contracts is like comparing apples and oranges - the 2 players are in quite different stages of their careers. Point is the Sox could have easily come away with a trade package for Betts that didn't include the quality in what we have in Verdugo (and still to be seen Jeter Downs).
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 28, 2021 22:19:10 GMT -5
Robbie Grossman, whom I've pimped (and will continue to proudly pimp) as a potential pickup, hit a walkoff jack in the bottom of the 10th to beat the MFY. The best thing about it is that the ump botched the call on the previous pitch, which should have been a strike that would have given the Yankees the win.
And you people say you want robo umps...
Wow, I didn't see that. I was back and forth between the MFY and the Celtics, whom I love again! In my fat guy mobster voice, "Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in."
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 28, 2021 22:26:48 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill
Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill
Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June
I believe those numbers are entering tonight too
Bloom is quite good at maximizing value
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 28, 2021 22:40:34 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June I believe those numbers are entering tonight too Bloom is quite good at maximizing value Yes, and JBJ has a 2022 player option at $12M AAV. (He'll make $9.5M in actual payout.) Mookie has a ridiculous 11 years left. Anyone want to guess how many of those years at the end will be years of serious decline? Andrew McCutchen, a smallish guy and former MVP who used to be a nice combination of speed and power (sound familiar?), is 34 and has put up 6.7 WAR since 2016.
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Post by kjkramer on May 28, 2021 22:41:16 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June I believe those numbers are entering tonight too Bloom is quite good at maximizing value I firmly believed the Sox had a good chance of putting up better stats with the replacement of the Former "B's" for a lot less money.... and that was assuming normal Mookie production. Mookie is making this easy.
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Post by kjkramer on May 28, 2021 22:43:38 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June I believe those numbers are entering tonight too Bloom is quite good at maximizing value Yes, and JBJ has a 2022 player option at $12M AAV. (He'll make $9.5M in actual payout.) Mookie has a ridiculous 11 years left. Anyone want to guess how many of those years at the end will be years of serious decline? Andrew McCutchen, a smallish guy and former MVP who used to be a nice combination of speed and power (sound familiar?), is 34 and has put up 6.7 WAR since 2016. When the Dodgers signed Mookie to that ridiculous contract, I remember thinking he will be one of the top 5 guys in baseball for the next 3 years and then start declining and the last 5-6 years of that contract would be AWFUL and I was glad we didn't pay it... looks like his decline could be faster and that is bad news for the Dodgers and a HUGE escape for us
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Post by incandenza on May 28, 2021 22:56:53 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June I believe those numbers are entering tonight too Bloom is quite good at maximizing value Yes, and JBJ has a 2022 player option at $12M AAV. (He'll make $9.5M in actual payout.) Mookie has a ridiculous 11 years left. Anyone want to guess how many of those years at the end will be years of serious decline? Andrew McCutchen, a smallish guy and former MVP who used to be a nice combination of speed and power (sound familiar?), is 34 and has put up 6.7 WAR since 2016. Hmm, some of Mookie's statcast numbers are on a sort of downward trend since 2018:
| Hard hit %
| xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | 2018
| 50.0 | .307
| .603
| .428 | 2019 | 46.1 | .306 | .570 | .408 | 2020 | 43.4 | .281 | .481 | .359 | 2021 | 39.0 | .261 | .416 | .351 |
On the one hand, both 2020 and 2021 are smallish sample sizes, and it would surprise none of us, I'm sure, if he went on a ludicrous tear starting tomorrow. On the other hand, he's almost 29 and he probably ought to be rounding the hump on his peak years around now...
Of course, he's still on pace for 5 WAR/150 in a "down" year. I expect he'll still be giving the Dodgers good value for years to come.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 28, 2021 22:58:49 GMT -5
Yes, and JBJ has a 2022 player option at $12M AAV. (He'll make $9.5M in actual payout.) Mookie has a ridiculous 11 years left. Anyone want to guess how many of those years at the end will be years of serious decline? Andrew McCutchen, a smallish guy and former MVP who used to be a nice combination of speed and power (sound familiar?), is 34 and has put up 6.7 WAR since 2016. When the Dodgers signed Mookie to that ridiculous contract, I remember thinking he will be one of the top 5 guys in baseball for the next 3 years and then start declining and the last 5-6 years of that contract would be AWFUL and I was glad we didn't pay it... looks like his decline could be faster and that is bad news for the Dodgers and a HUGE escape for usIt usually works out that way. If you think about it, when the RS have declined to pay big money to retain star players, it has usually worked out Ok and in some cases, more than Ok. I was crushed by the Nomar trade and Pedro bolting to the Mets, but both moves worked out. We lost Damon, but by the end of 2007, we had had replaced him with a younger, cheaper and faster Ellsbury. PARADE! And, of course, the 2012 Dodgers trade unburdened us of three big contacts and led to 2013. PARADE! Re-signing Beckett, Sale, Lowell and others to big $$$, long-term contacts had bad results. Being a ML exec is not for the sentimental. It's for the coldly calculating.
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Post by incandenza on May 28, 2021 23:08:56 GMT -5
When the Dodgers signed Mookie to that ridiculous contract, I remember thinking he will be one of the top 5 guys in baseball for the next 3 years and then start declining and the last 5-6 years of that contract would be AWFUL and I was glad we didn't pay it... looks like his decline could be faster and that is bad news for the Dodgers and a HUGE escape for usIt usually works out that way. If you think about it, when the RS have declined to pay big money to retain star players, it has usually worked out Ok and in some cases, more than Ok. I was crushed by the Nomar trade and Pedro bolting to the Mets, but both moves worked out. We lost Damon, but by the end of 2007, we had had replaced him with a younger, cheaper and faster Ellsbury. PARADE! And, of course, the 2012 Dodgers trade unburdened us of three big contacts and led to 2013. PARADE! Re-signing Beckett, Sale, Lowell and others to big $$$, long-term contacts had bad results. Being a ML exec is not for the sentimental. It's for the coldly calculating. Well, being a fan is for the sentimental though. I kind of worry that Bloom might be a little too good at his job, in the sense that it might well be "right," in a coldly calculating sense, to let Bogaerts go, for instance, but it would just make me happier as a fan if 5% of their payroll went to overpaying him to stay a Red Sox for his whole career.
If there's ever a time for an owner to intervene with an otherwise top-notch GM, it's to consider the big picture beyond wins and losses: the identity of the franchise and its relationship with its fans. Of course, John Henry was last seen colluding in an effort to destroy European soccer culture for the sake of a big money payout, so...
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 28, 2021 23:49:04 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June I believe those numbers are entering tonight too Bloom is quite good at maximizing value I love watching JBJ’s great catches, but Bradley was not anywhere near worth what he was going to get. Beni was 2 years from FA which is a typical TB move to trade while the value is way higher than 1 yr from FA, plus Winckowski and the 3 PTBN will help balance the Franchy effect. Mookie’s BA and OPS have fallen off like many players after they leave Fenway’s small foul territory and super close LF wall, but the drop is more than I would have expected.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 29, 2021 0:05:52 GMT -5
Just to elaborate on those numbers I also didn’t factor in that Renfroe’s WAR probably goes up after a 2-2 with 2 doubles game as well as Doogies. Hell even Kikè got on and scored. That WAR gap is probably at a full 1.0 now
For 25% of the cost.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2021 0:48:29 GMT -5
Poteet is getting Devers out easily with fastballs in the zone. This posted by redsoxstats from a few days ago, continues to be alarming. In '20 and '21 to date, Devers can't hit fastballs. I don't know why so many pitchers keep throwing him breaking balls. They're already throwing him 60.0%, which is very high. And the pitch value per 100 pitches is -0.22 runs, which is just a little below average. That tells you that he's taking a lot of them for balls, I think, which also tells you that they're pitching him very carefully with them. They can't try to throw him fastballs much more often, or it becomes too predictable and the effect of turning him into a normal hitter disappears.
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Post by orion09 on May 29, 2021 1:05:23 GMT -5
Yes, and JBJ has a 2022 player option at $12M AAV. (He'll make $9.5M in actual payout.) Mookie has a ridiculous 11 years left. Anyone want to guess how many of those years at the end will be years of serious decline? Andrew McCutchen, a smallish guy and former MVP who used to be a nice combination of speed and power (sound familiar?), is 34 and has put up 6.7 WAR since 2016. Hmm, some of Mookie's statcast numbers are on a sort of downward trend since 2018:
| Hard hit %
| xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | 2018
| 50.0 | .307
| .603
| .428 | 2019 | 46.1 | .306 | .570 | .408 | 2020 | 43.4 | .281 | .481 | .359 | 2021 | 39.0 | .261 | .416 | .351 |
On the one hand, both 2020 and 2021 are smallish sample sizes, and it would surprise none of us, I'm sure, if he went on a ludicrous tear starting tomorrow. On the other hand, he's almost 29 and he probably ought to be rounding the hump on his peak years around now...
Of course, he's still on pace for 5 WAR/150 in a "down" year. I expect he'll still be giving the Dodgers good value for years to come.
Defense trending downward also, which was a huge part of his value: | OAA/150 | Catch % added | UZR/150 | 2016 | 14.3 | 4 | 20.9 | 2017 | 17.6 | 4 | 19.0 | 2018 | 12.6 | 4 | 21.0 | 2019 | 6.2 | 2 | 13.3 | 2020 | 17.3 | 4 | 15.1 | 2021 | 3.3 | 1 | -2.0 |
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Post by orion09 on May 29, 2021 1:23:15 GMT -5
Side note: while calculating the OAA/150, I was reminded that Mookie had gotten hurt in 2018, only played in 136 games, and still put up 10.4 fWAR.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 29, 2021 1:33:09 GMT -5
Side note: while calculating the OAA/150, I was reminded that Mookie had gotten hurt in 2018, only played in 136 games, and still put up 10.4 fWAR. It was a magic year. Mookie is the second best baseball player alive and I don’t think he will ever come too close to replicating it. And I know Tatis is awesome, but he won’t either.
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Post by unitspin on May 29, 2021 6:00:46 GMT -5
Its nice to see some of the board come around to the fact jbj would have been a huge... huge mistake at how much he was asking for. Fact still remains, we robbed LA in the mookie trade and lost the Benny trade. But you can't win them all.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 29, 2021 6:04:06 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June I believe those numbers are entering tonight too Bloom is quite good at maximizing value That may be. We'll see if he is any good at building World Series winners, which is the whole point of this exercise. Not meant to be snarky. Add - Career bWar 3B's - 71.5 V/K/R - 24.2 subtext.....JBJ and Beni have more career bWar combined than the other 3.....(28.9)
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 29, 2021 7:33:10 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June I believe those numbers are entering tonight too Bloom is quite good at maximizing value That may be. We'll see if he is any good at building World Series winners, which is the whole point of this exercise. Not meant to be snarky. Add - Career bWar 3B's - 71.5 V/K/R - 24.2 subtext.....JBJ and Beni have more career bWar combined than the other 3.....(28.9) So we extracted all the value we could out of em and dumped them when they were turning into inferior players than they were at their peak Agreed that we shall see if he can build a WS winner- but making moves like this help him on his journey to building a WS winner. So far he has gotten better production from that trio than he would’ve from the old trio- but he also has about $30 mil more to play with this season. You can make an argument that with that extra money they were able to sign guys like Richards, Marwin, and Santana and acquire guys like Ottavino. None of them are absolute bonafide studs but they filled a couple important roles and provide much needed major league depth, which I think is a big reason why they’re off to such an unexpectedly strong start
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Post by Guidas on May 29, 2021 7:40:33 GMT -5
Great (soggy) win!
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on May 29, 2021 8:31:45 GMT -5
I WILL HEAR NONE OF THIS MOOKIE SLANDER!!
(and yet...)
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 29, 2021 8:38:46 GMT -5
Benintendi/Bradley/Betts : 1.8 WAR, $39.5 mill Verdugo/Kikè/Renfroe: 2.4 WAR, $10.75 mill Don’t think anybody would’ve said that would be the case by June I believe those numbers are entering tonight too Bloom is quite good at maximizing value That may be. We'll see if he is any good at building World Series winners, which is the whole point of this exercise. Not meant to be snarky. Add - Career bWar 3B's - 71.5 V/K/R - 24.2 subtext.....JBJ and Beni have more career bWar combined than the other 3.....(28.9) Not meant to be snarky, but David Ortiz War was 55.3.... I only care about this year and future. What will JBJ and Beni’s future WAR be vs who is on the Red Sox
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 29, 2021 8:49:58 GMT -5
Miami has some nice starting pitching (at least the three pitchers the Red Sox face). I am a little surprised they are three games under .500. I guess team depth really does matter...... Trading Betts for Verdugo and prospects plus using the money saved to fill out the roster really helped the Red Sox to 11 games over .500.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 29, 2021 9:12:11 GMT -5
The one cautionary note given the high-fives about trading players who have peaked has to do with the CBA. Betts was worth seventy times what he was paid during that great year. The owners understand where the value is and that they can extract that at little cost to the team. Some way has to be found to reduce that gross imbalance. I believe the players understand that now. That will make the negotiations very difficult.
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Post by manfred on May 29, 2021 9:14:28 GMT -5
That may be. We'll see if he is any good at building World Series winners, which is the whole point of this exercise. Not meant to be snarky. Add - Career bWar 3B's - 71.5 V/K/R - 24.2 subtext.....JBJ and Beni have more career bWar combined than the other 3.....(28.9) Not meant to be snarky, but David Ortiz War was 55.3.... I only care about this year and future. What will JBJ and Beni’s future WAR be vs who is on the Red Sox I think the question at hand is more future WAR of guys on the Red Sox Bloom brings in. The OF swap is only part of the picture. But this team is riding inherited horses. It is hard to say great job to a guy who watches X, JDM, and Devers perform out of their heads making up for Franchy, Dalbec, Marwin... I’ve said it before: applaud Bloom for saving John Henry money all you like. But he has to put those savings into a ring before that matters. If people think a downgrade in RF is good because of a $:WAR ratio... that is odd *unless* the saved dollars ADD WAR elsewhere. So far, Bloom hasn’t done that part. Fine, give him his tax pass, his bridge pass, his “rebuild the system” pass etc. But those will expire at some point, and he’s going to have to field a team that he fully stands behind.
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Post by incandenza on May 29, 2021 9:25:04 GMT -5
Not meant to be snarky, but David Ortiz War was 55.3.... I only care about this year and future. What will JBJ and Beniâs future WAR be vs who is on the Red Sox I think the question at hand is more future WAR of guys on the Red Sox Bloom brings in. The OF swap is only part of the picture. But this team is riding inherited horses. It is hard to say great job to a guy who watches X, JDM, and Devers perform out of their heads making up for Franchy, Dalbec, Marwin... Iâve said it before: applaud Bloom for saving John Henry money all you like. But he has to put those savings into a ring before that matters. If people think a downgrade in RF is good because of a $:WAR ratio... that is odd *unless* the saved dollars ADD WAR elsewhere. So far, Bloom hasnât done that part. Fine, give him his tax pass, his bridge pass, his ârebuild the systemâ pass etc. But those will expire at some point, and heâs going to have to field a team that he fully stands behind. Eh? Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo, Santana, Marwin, and Franchy have combined for 2.5 fWAR this season - about twice what Mookie has produced for less than half the cost.
Pivetta, Perez, and Richards have added another 2.7 fWAR and I think that just gets us up to Mookie's total salary. Over 5 WAR in a third of a season.
And this is without taking Bloom's substantial prospect additions into account. What more are you expecting, exactly?
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