SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by jaffinator on Jun 20, 2022 11:11:37 GMT -5
BIP stats in the minors, particularly LD vs FB, aren't very reliable given they're reliant on the scorer's input (I at least presume they still are at this point). Consider that the top 6 LD% leaders in the system (min 50 AB) are in Salem, and 12 of the top 19 (I'm counting Vaughan despite some of his at-bats coming post-demotion). I think it's very likely their scorer is overly generous calling balls in the air line drives instead of fly balls. Yeah, you've mentioned that here before. Jordan is actually slightly underperforming what you'd expect just based on the BIP stats so there's some wiggle room. The one thing is, I would expect things like LD% to be highest in low A so while some bias is likely that's not inherently proof. Here's the leaderboard for low A for LD%. More BOS players than you might expect, but not truly strikingly anomalous. www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=4&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=y&type=2&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=7,1 (also check out Kavadas compared to everyone else, just promote him already)
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 20, 2022 12:38:33 GMT -5
BIP stats in the minors, particularly LD vs FB, aren't very reliable given they're reliant on the scorer's input (I at least presume they still are at this point). Consider that the top 6 LD% leaders in the system (min 50 AB) are in Salem, and 12 of the top 19 (I'm counting Vaughan despite some of his at-bats coming post-demotion). I think it's very likely their scorer is overly generous calling balls in the air line drives instead of fly balls. Yeah, you've mentioned that here before. Jordan is actually slightly underperforming what you'd expect just based on the BIP stats so there's some wiggle room. The one thing is, I would expect things like LD% to be highest in low A so while some bias is likely that's not inherently proof. Here's the leaderboard for low A for LD%. More BOS players than you might expect, but not truly strikingly anomalous. www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=4&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=y&type=2&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=7,1 (also check out Kavadas compared to everyone else, just promote him already) If you make the threshold 150 PA instead of Qualified, 4 of the top 5 are from Salem, with Paulino at 11. If you go down to 130, it's 4 of the top 6 with Simas at 12 and Paulino at 13.
|
|
|
Post by lonborgski on Jun 20, 2022 13:17:21 GMT -5
I also think it's in part due to getting off to such a bad start in April that his overall stats and first-impression bias is letting him go under the radar. He's been very strong in May and June. .323/.358/.515 in May. .383/.441/.633 in June. Given that he's a week (7 days) younger than Mayer, I'm impressed. He clearly doesn't have the defensive talents but, as radiohix pointed out in the June 1 game thread, his K% at 17.3% is much better than Mayer's 27.6 (though Mayer has been improving a bit this month).
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 20, 2022 13:17:52 GMT -5
Yeah, you've mentioned that here before. Jordan is actually slightly underperforming what you'd expect just based on the BIP stats so there's some wiggle room. The one thing is, I would expect things like LD% to be highest in low A so while some bias is likely that's not inherently proof. Here's the leaderboard for low A for LD%. More BOS players than you might expect, but not truly strikingly anomalous. www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=4&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=y&type=2&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=7,1 (also check out Kavadas compared to everyone else, just promote him already) If you make the threshold 150 PA instead of Qualified, 4 of the top 5 are from Salem, with Paulino at 11. If you go down to 130, it's 4 of the top 6 with Simas at 12 and Paulino at 13. I thought the theory of players at lower levels having a higher LD% interesting. Here is a quick snapshot of average LD rates among qualified players in each Red Sox division (not the entire league): International: 21.37% Eastern: 19.59% South Atlantic: 20.43% Carolina: 20.58% Now let's look at 2021: International: 20.13% Eastern: 19.73% South Atlantic: 20.78% Carolina: 22.02% But for a larger sample, he is 2010-2022: International: 20.59% Eastern: 18.35% South Atlantic: 18.72% Carolina: 17.92% Although 2021 shows a higher LD% than in other years, I think we can chalk this up to a SSS or other factors. Generally LD%% is similar at each level with a slight upward trend as players advance. There is a large bump in AAA, and although I don't have a definitive answer, from scrolling through the names I found a large number of high LD% players repeating the level (multiple times for many). So this appears to be a result of AAAA players who haven't stuck in the majors yet. (it should be noted that I used average LD% of qualified players and only the specific divisions, if someone wishes to be more thorough, adding all of the LD and AB together throughout a level and then averaging would be more accurate, however they would also catch the rehabbing player who may skew the numbers a bit)
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 20, 2022 13:26:31 GMT -5
Yeah, you've mentioned that here before. Jordan is actually slightly underperforming what you'd expect just based on the BIP stats so there's some wiggle room. The one thing is, I would expect things like LD% to be highest in low A so while some bias is likely that's not inherently proof. Here's the leaderboard for low A for LD%. More BOS players than you might expect, but not truly strikingly anomalous. www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=4&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=y&type=2&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=7,1 (also check out Kavadas compared to everyone else, just promote him already) If you make the threshold 150 PA instead of Qualified, 4 of the top 5 are from Salem, with Paulino at 11. If you go down to 130, it's 4 of the top 6 with Simas at 12 and Paulino at 13. As I was checking LD%, I ran across the following. 2010-2022 highest LD% in Carolina league among qualified hitters: 1. Ryan Fitzgerald (BOS) - 33.30% 2. Shane Sasaki (TBR) - 32.40% 3. Carson Williams (TBR) - 32.30% 4. Josh Ockimey (BOS) - 31.40% 5. E. Paulino (BOS) - 31.00% 6. C.J. Chatham (BOS) - 30.40% 7. Nick Yorke (BOS) - 29.50% 8. Jose Sermo (BOS) - 28.60% 9. Garrett Benge (BOS) - 28.30% 10. Bobby Dalbec (BOS) - 28.20% I'd like to think that the Red Sox hitting coaches are just REALLY awesome...but I think you're on to something.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 20, 2022 13:32:26 GMT -5
The current knock on him is he hits almost everything to the opposite field and people would like to see him pull the ball more. Do people want to see him trying to pull everything and rolling over? Isn't it generally seen as a good thing when a player is not selling out to pull? I gather the thought is he's late and can't catch up with a quality FB??? He has struggled a bit against velocity so far and is yet to pull a fastball for a HR (the recent homers he pulled were curves left up - the second one yesterday was an absolute cookie if you look at it, although it's good that he was able to punish the pitcher for that one). Understood where your gut feel on that is and yes, the point is not that he should be selling out to pull everything, but the point is, as you said, a question of squaring up velocity and whether he's late on everything. When I saw Salem recently, I got 8 PA and he put 6 balls in play. Only one was pulled and it was on a curveball, admittedly a very nice little piece of hitting where he spit on one and attacked when the pitcher tried to double-up. Splitting hairs a bit? Maybe, but those are the hairs you need to split when determining if performance is for real. To be clear, this is more of a development point for me rather than an alarming issue.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jun 20, 2022 13:51:21 GMT -5
The current knock on him is he hits almost everything to the opposite field and people would like to see him pull the ball more. Do people want to see him trying to pull everything and rolling over? Isn't it generally seen as a good thing when a player is not selling out to pull? I gather the thought is he's late and can't catch up with a quality FB??? He has struggled a bit against velocity so far and is yet to pull a fastball for a HR (the recent homers he pulled were curves left up - the second one yesterday was an absolute cookie if you look at it, although it's good that he was able to punish the pitcher for that one). Understood where your gut feel on that is and yes, the point is not that he should be selling out to pull everything, but the point is, as you said, a question of squaring up velocity and whether he's late on everything. When I saw Salem recently, I got 8 PA and he put 6 balls in play. Only one was pulled and it was on a curveball, admittedly a very nice little piece of hitting where he spit on one and attacked when the pitcher tried to double-up. Splitting hairs a bit? Maybe, but those are the hairs you need to split when determining if performance is for real. To be clear, this is more of a development point for me rather than an alarming issue. How would you rate his bat speed during this look, Chris? I think if bat speed is good, it's developmental. If bat speed is marginal, might be more concerning. Scouting report says "has bat speed" so it's more timing/pitch recognition?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 20, 2022 14:52:14 GMT -5
Are people saying that a .337 BABIP is too high to be sustainable? JDM's is .364 for 2021-22.
And by the way, he does ok hitting most home runs to RF.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 20, 2022 15:26:49 GMT -5
Are people saying that a .337 BABIP is too high to be sustainable? JDM's is .364 for 2021-22. And by the way, he does ok hitting most home runs to RF. I don't think the sustainability is the question. If he's a little late on fastballs in A-ball, will he be even more late (and striking out) on fastballs at higher levels? So it's not a luck question but a question as to whether he has enough upside in the bat to be successful against tougher competition.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 21, 2022 7:51:01 GMT -5
Are people saying that a .337 BABIP is too high to be sustainable? JDM's is .364 for 2021-22. And by the way, he does ok hitting most home runs to RF. I don't think the sustainability is the question. If he's a little late on fastballs in A-ball, will he be even more late (and striking out) on fastballs at higher levels? So it's not a luck question but a question as to whether he has enough upside in the bat to be successful against tougher competition. Maybe he has the JDM (and Aaron Judge)swing? I remember having the same opposite field approach when I played. I got a lot more power hitting to the opposite field. I'd only pull the ball when pitched inside.
|
|
|
Post by ortiz on Jun 24, 2022 8:57:52 GMT -5
I'm just a box score scouter, but at some point we need some excitement for Mr. Blaze correct? The young man certainly seems to have put his early season struggles behind him, and is just crushing it. When does the promotion come?
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 24, 2022 9:11:31 GMT -5
I'm just a box score scouter, but at some point we need some excitement for Mr. Blaze correct? The young man certainly seems to have put his early season struggles behind him, and is just crushing it. When does the promotion come? I would imagine it doesn't, for two reasons: 1. He's still 19, and will be for the rest of the year, so letting him get his feet firmly planted on the ground and acclimated to a full professional season will probably be a good developmental foundation for him. If he continues to perform very well next year and in the years after, maybe you can get a little more aggressive. 2. Between Kavadas who is way higher on the list of priority promotions, Binelas, Joe Davis, and Northcut, the number of guys that should be playing first base in the lower levels of full-season ball has created a logjam already, there just wouldn't be space for Jordan to get consistent reps. Kavadas should be up in Greenville soon for sure, and I can definitely see two of Binelas, Northcut, or Davis moving up to Portland, so maybe they give him a short cup of coffee late in the season to at least see another level of pitching, but I would prefer him to just be an everyday regular for the time being. Same with Mayer.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 24, 2022 9:35:47 GMT -5
I'm just a box score scouter, but at some point we need some excitement for Mr. Blaze correct? The young man certainly seems to have put his early season struggles behind him, and is just crushing it. When does the promotion come? I would imagine it doesn't, for two reasons: 1. He's still 19, and will be for the rest of the year, so letting him get his feet firmly planted on the ground and acclimated to a full professional season will probably be a good developmental foundation for him. If he continues to perform very well next year and in the years after, maybe you can get a little more aggressive. 2. Between Kavadas who is way higher on the list of priority promotions, Binelas, Joe Davis, and Northcut, the number of guys that should be playing first base in the lower levels of full-season ball has created a logjam already, there just wouldn't be space for Jordan to get consistent reps. Kavadas should be up in Greenville soon for sure, and I can definitely see two of Binelas, Northcut, or Davis moving up to Portland, so maybe they give him a short cup of coffee late in the season to at least see another level of pitching, but I would prefer him to just be an everyday regular for the time being. Same with Mayer. You beat me to this thought. We have WAY to many firstbase types and all are somewhat intriguing. I'm high on Blaze myself as he started slow and didn't let it get to him. He has made solid adjustments and that K rate is really good. My problem for him, and Binelas, is where do you put them on the field. Probably Casas is our 1st baseman of the future. I was hoping the organization would have started giving them reps in the outfield. Neither is probably going to be at third. These two, along with Rafalea, are the guys I'm always searching the box scores for. None of us is crazy for a full time DH (unless it is necessary). Throw them in left and start the transition. JDM has never been great, and one of these guys may have an elite bat down the road.
|
|
|
Post by Canseco on Jun 24, 2022 9:51:12 GMT -5
I would imagine it doesn't, for two reasons: 1. He's still 19, and will be for the rest of the year, so letting him get his feet firmly planted on the ground and acclimated to a full professional season will probably be a good developmental foundation for him. If he continues to perform very well next year and in the years after, maybe you can get a little more aggressive. 2. Between Kavadas who is way higher on the list of priority promotions, Binelas, Joe Davis, and Northcut, the number of guys that should be playing first base in the lower levels of full-season ball has created a logjam already, there just wouldn't be space for Jordan to get consistent reps. Kavadas should be up in Greenville soon for sure, and I can definitely see two of Binelas, Northcut, or Davis moving up to Portland, so maybe they give him a short cup of coffee late in the season to at least see another level of pitching, but I would prefer him to just be an everyday regular for the time being. Same with Mayer. You beat me to this thought. We have WAY to many firstbase types and all are somewhat intriguing. I'm high on Blaze myself as he started slow and didn't let it get to him. He has made solid adjustments and that K rate is really good. My problem for him, and Binelas, is where do you put them on the field. Probably Casas is our 1st baseman of the future. I was hoping the organization would have started giving them reps in the outfield. Neither is probably going to be at third. These two, along with Rafalea, are the guys I'm always searching the box scores for. None of us is crazy for a full time DH (unless it is necessary). Throw them in left and start the transition. JDM has never been great, and one of these guys may have an elite bat down the road. Yeah. Given Fenway’s dimensions, I have always wanted the organization to get some LF reps for these primarily 1B types. If they ever make the bigs, it would provide nice flexibility for home games. With Casas knocking on the door, I hope Dalbec can give us time at 3B and LF, too.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,312
|
Post by radiohix on Jun 24, 2022 11:37:56 GMT -5
Since May 1st (187 PA) Blaze Jordan is sporting a 13.9% K rate for a .229 IsoP. In terms of counting stats, he has 25 XBH while striking out just 26 times! He and Paulinho have been the most impressive 19 yo hitters in Salem 😉
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Jun 24, 2022 12:28:04 GMT -5
I don't view him there long term necessarily, but Jordan has played around twice as many games at third as he has at any other individual position. Greenville has mostly played Northcut / Binelas there so far this season.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Jun 24, 2022 12:42:58 GMT -5
Blaze is my favorite prospect and I'm glad to see him LIGHTNING IT UP.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 24, 2022 12:48:21 GMT -5
A couple thoughts
1) It is never a great idea to worry about how a guy in A Ball fits into the MLB lineup. Who on earth knows what the Red Sox roster will look like in 2025 or whatever we're looking at here.
2) Not directed at any one person, but there's always an urge to ask when a guy is getting promoted if he has a good month. But ask yourself in these situations why the guy needs to be promoted. It's not like Jordan has an extended period this year of clearly being too advanced for the league. I'd also point out that Salem's June schedule featured 2 teams giving up roughly 6.5 runs per game in Delmarva and Columbia. Jordan has 22 multi-hit games this year - 9 were against Delmarva. This also might just be a SSS thing but he's got a pretty large home/road split, in the opposite direction of what you'd think.
3) As mentioned, they have Binelas and Northcut alternating the corners in Greenville and Kavadas is a much more obvious promotion candidate right now (I'd argue most obvious in the system at the moment). Let Jordan marinate in Salem. Maybe he gets a cup of coffee in Greenville in August or September.
4) Defense. In theory he can work on this at any level but even in a pretty short look I got with him last month, he just looks very unnatural in the field. That squares with reports we've gotten as well.
I see no reason to even think about promoting Jordan right now.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Jun 25, 2022 18:22:08 GMT -5
how has he not been promoted yet?
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053
|
Post by cdj on Jun 25, 2022 20:49:03 GMT -5
how has he not been promoted yet? Logjam + 19 YO
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Jun 25, 2022 22:25:31 GMT -5
how has he not been promoted yet? Logjam + 19 YO That’s the only reason though or am i missing something else?
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 25, 2022 22:52:13 GMT -5
That’s the only reason though or am i missing something else? Two pretty big reasons lol
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Jun 25, 2022 23:02:07 GMT -5
That’s the only reason though or am i missing something else? Two pretty big reasons lol logjam and age are not big reasons to me. That’a good reasons. It’s not like he isn’t worthy because of something i was missing.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 26, 2022 7:30:08 GMT -5
He hasn't been promoted because you don't just automatically promote a guy after two months of good statistics.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jun 26, 2022 8:32:39 GMT -5
I think the better question is, "Why is Kavadas ranked outside the top forty?" Great approach. Shoved. Got promoted. Shoves even harder.
|
|
|