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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 7, 2021 23:03:16 GMT -5
But remember, the fact that Houck was electric in his three 2020 starts did not guarantee him a rotation spot this year. He's made more starts this year but been worse, so why would we assume he's got a rotation spot in 2022? I think your memory might be playing tricks on you, or you may be undervaluing how good Houck has been this year. If you take his W/L record (3-0) and ERA (0.53) then he's been worse, but nobody in MLB history has sustained that level of success over a season so it's not quite fair. But if you look at his peripherals this year he's actually been better (the numbers overlap a fair bit): K/9 - 11.23 to 11.12 BB/9 - 2.17 to 4.76 xERA - 3.45 to 3.71 FIP - 2.48 to 3.25 xFIP - 3.23 to 3.73 The numbers include his 4 innings of relief, but also his 3rd time through the order stats (because it took Cora a while to figure out what we all already knew...). If anyone is wondering: 2.2 IP, 6H, 0BB, 2K, 3HBP and 8 earned runs. I'm not sure anyone is 'guaranteed' a rotation spot in 2022, but if he continues to dominate through 5 innings then he will be 3rd on the list. He’s not really dominating through 5 though, he did in his last outing against Cleveland so that was nice but in his other games where he hovered around that innings totals he was very meh. In 2020 he gave them great starts of 5, 6, and 6 innings. I can see why that’s remembered more fondly than a bunch of 4 innings, 1-2 run outings
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 8, 2021 2:16:55 GMT -5
September is going to tell us a lot about what the 2022 rotation will look like.
Sale and Eovaldi (walk year) are the only locks. Pivetta's still cheap and was good for long stretches, so he likely remains in the rotation.
Can Houck pitch 6+ innings and get through the order 3x? He's got 3-4 more starts to show that he can. If he doesn't do it now, how do you pencil him into the rotation for next April? Why not get his 5-6 innings/week in the rover role that Whitlock's currently playing? He'd never have to go much more than once through an order and could be lined up to piggyback with younger guys like Whitlock and/or Seabold.
E-Rod now has one good start and one ugly one to kick off the month. I still think he's likely to be re-signed at a much lower price than anticipated.
Whitlock is starting to show some cracks but I'll be pretty surprised if they don't stretch him out in ST with a spot in the rotation his to win.
Seabold is likely to get a September start or two and figures to have a better shot at the 6th or 7th starter spot than Crawford, even if he turns in a Crawford-like performance this month.
If Chaim really has kept the team under the tax threshold, then you have to figure they'll be in the market for someone like Scherzer on a creative, front-loaded contract, especially if they let E-Rod walk. Short years and long money seem like the perfect combo for the team's imminent luxury-tax-paying window.
If Richards will accept less than half of his option amount, he could also figure in the bullpen but I think he's started his last game in a Sox uni. I would guess a second-division team (why not TEX?) might promise Perez a shot at a rotation spot with hopes of flipping him at the deadline, which BOS won't. Is he worth enough to pick up the option and trade him to such a team while eating his salary in exchange for a prospect?
Sale, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock in the rotation; Houck, Richards as rovers; Seabold as the 6th starter. If E-Rod is a good enough value, one of Houck or Whitlock could be optioned to Worcester for the first month or so of the season (i.e. until injury opens a spot).
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 8, 2021 6:15:29 GMT -5
It changes this off-season because they've literally said they're staying under the cap this season and will make splashes in free agency moving forward. I have heard bloom say repeatedly that he wants to build an organization that can consistently compete and is sustainable. I am not sure that he can do that with large free agent signings crippling his ability to build depth and be flexible. This isn't Tampa Bay, I think he can make a big FA signing or 2 and build depth and remain flexible. The depth will be coming from the system soon and they can afford solid depth when not trying to stay under the cap like this year. The hard part is finding the guy who you spend on that doesn't end up being a bad contract decision thus crippling the teams cap space into the future. The Sox do need to think hard about adding another top of the rotation starter if they really want to contend. Scherzer would be perfect at 3 years for all the mentioned reasons but if he wants to play on the left coast then he will get the $$ to stay there and has made enough in his career to not change his mind for a couple million dollars. I think ERod will be here for a reasonable contract so he could be that guy but is he enough? And who is out there that would be a good contract gamble. There are some names out there but who is the guy that will come in and be worth it? Will a pick be attached or will the new CBA do away with that hindrance to player values? I think I am still one of the few guys on here that buys into what TBay/Bloom is selling in the pitching staff strategy of piggybacking "starters". The 2021 Sox have 3 guys that have proven so far to be great at the 3.4 inning stint outings and they could just build on that moving forward. Maybe a pitching staff that looks like this seasons version with Sale from the beginning is enough to succeed with a better BP and another guy or 2 like Whitlock and Houck and fewer 1 inning guys. Maybe Seabold is part of that equation. I think that's the way Bloom will go. Resign the guy that you know in FA, ERod, and build a better pen. The Sox will have a lot invested in the rotation between Sale, Eovaldi and XXX "ERod" to expect much more but maybe they go further considering Eovaldi has 1 yr left. Is that enough to contend? From the way this team has performed this season it is hard to figure out how Chaim will feel about next years roster, there could be alot of turnover or not.
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 8, 2021 6:22:52 GMT -5
1-Sale 29 2-Eovaldi 17 3-FA 4-Pivetta ARB (2.5-3.5) 5-Houke/Whitlock Minimum (around .600)
Depth 1-Seabold 2-Crawford 3-Winckowski Toward the mid/end of the year you can project Murphy, Bello, Santos, and Groome to be added to AAA rotation. All except Murphy would already have to be on 40 man if we keep them.
I can't see them commiting to have both Houke and Whitlock in the rotation to start the year. Hard to give 40% of your rotation to unproven commodities. One is going to have to be depth/Longman. The depth behind the starting 5 looks better then it has in a long time, which is great because it should allow them to add another mid rotation salary for the next few years without hurting too much. They only have about 43 million committed to the rotation for next year. Although it is still tough to see them adding another 25-30 million pitcher without putting them back into a bad payroll spot. In 2019 there starting rotation made 88 million, but wasn't the best payroll situation. The goal should be to add a mid rotation arm on a 2-4 year pact for under 20 million a season. I listed some of the preferred mid/top of the rotation starts available for this offseason and its tough to see many of them signing a deal like that.
Mid rotation FA options (*qualifying offer not possible) DeSclafani Gausman* Gray Greinke Kershaw Kluber Rodon Rodriguez Scherzer* Stroman* Verlander
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 8, 2021 8:09:59 GMT -5
I think your memory might be playing tricks on you, or you may be undervaluing how good Houck has been this year. If you take his W/L record (3-0) and ERA (0.53) then he's been worse, but nobody in MLB history has sustained that level of success over a season so it's not quite fair. But if you look at his peripherals this year he's actually been better (the numbers overlap a fair bit): K/9 - 11.23 to 11.12 BB/9 - 2.17 to 4.76 xERA - 3.45 to 3.71 FIP - 2.48 to 3.25 xFIP - 3.23 to 3.73 The numbers include his 4 innings of relief, but also his 3rd time through the order stats (because it took Cora a while to figure out what we all already knew...). If anyone is wondering: 2.2 IP, 6H, 0BB, 2K, 3HBP and 8 earned runs. I'm not sure anyone is 'guaranteed' a rotation spot in 2022, but if he continues to dominate through 5 innings then he will be 3rd on the list. He’s not really dominating through 5 though, he did in his last outing against Cleveland so that was nice but in his other games where he hovered around that innings totals he was very meh. In 2020 he gave them great starts of 5, 6, and 6 innings. I can see why that’s remembered more fondly than a bunch of 4 innings, 1-2 run outings You can see the overall stats which I provided, but in terms of 4 inning appearances where he's given up 1-2 runs, that has only occurred twice this year. In his start prior to last he held the Indians scoreless and hitless through 5 innings - which is pretty dominant. The biggest difference this year is his walk rate, which has been by far the best he has posted at any stop in his professional career.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 8, 2021 10:12:39 GMT -5
I agree more with @voice than @nny when it comes to spending. Assuming they're under the tax threshold this year, they should be planning a 3-year bender before getting back under the threshold again in the 2025 season.
That window includes Sale's entire contract (vesting option for 2025) and could/should include a 3-year splurge on guys like Scherzer and Jansen.
Guys like Houck, Whitlock, Groome won't get expensive until that old guard are gone (and with any luck, they will provide cheap production in the meantime).
Devers and maybe Bogaerts figure to be the only really expensive position players on the books in 2025.
So I'm in the Get Scherzer camp and disagree on economizing with a mid-rotation arm in 2022. There's no reason you can't both spend Henry's money and build the farm (see: LAD, MFY). I think Henry would agree with me.
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 8, 2021 11:31:31 GMT -5
I mean...it's an interesting discussion for sure, but...we don't even know if "the threshold" will be a thing next year.
The CBA is up and it looks like the parties are prepared to make some major changes.
Trying to predict the next 3+ years based on the system we have now...is kind of moot...
Sorry for the buzzkill...
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 8, 2021 12:29:31 GMT -5
I'm gonna go ahead and predict that Bloom will be all over Scherzer if the price looks good, and will have no interest if he ends up signing for way too much money.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2021 12:46:36 GMT -5
I won’t be shocked if Scherzer is extended before he hits free agency. I imagine, though, the Dodgers have to see what happens to Bauer’s contract.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2021 13:23:23 GMT -5
He’s not really dominating through 5 though, he did in his last outing against Cleveland so that was nice but in his other games where he hovered around that innings totals he was very meh. In 2020 he gave them great starts of 5, 6, and 6 innings. I can see why that’s remembered more fondly than a bunch of 4 innings, 1-2 run outings You can see the overall stats which I provided, but in terms of 4 inning appearances where he's given up 1-2 runs, that has only occurred twice this year. In his start prior to last he held the Indians scoreless and hitless through 5 innings - which is pretty dominant. The biggest difference this year is his walk rate, which has been by far the best he has posted at any stop in his professional career. OK, definitely a air point that he cut his walks way down, which was his major issue last year despite the results (and is what's fueling the various FIP, etc. improvements). I guess I was looking more at end results than anything. I'll cede that he's probably been better in the innings that he's pitched. But I use that particular phrasing on purpose. That said, the fact they're not giving him nearly as much of a leash this year because of the third-time-through-the-order issue and the fact they're competing instead of... whatever last year was must be considered. In 10 starts this year he has recorded one out in the 6th inning. Last year he recorded 6 in 3 starts. It's a crude measure but it's just to make a point. Yes, he was dominant for 5 in his second-to-last start... then the wheels came off, and last time, even though he was absolutely cruising through 5 again, they didn't even let him start the sixth. That's pretty telling. In my head, I guess I'm factoring that "early exit" penalty in saying he's been worse. Like what would his numbers look like in a year in which they didn't care and just let him work through his third-time issues to try and get past 6 full?
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 8, 2021 14:18:50 GMT -5
I'm gonna go ahead and predict that Bloom will be all over Scherzer if the price looks good, and will have no interest if he ends up signing for way too much money. From the mlbtraderumors chat www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-9-8-21-11379.html: Guest 2:15 Scherzer’s next contract - 3 years $80MM? More or less? Steve Adams 2:16 Scherzer is one of the best pitchers on the planet, and the best pitchers on the planet are valued at more than $26.66MM on the open market. Verlander took a $33MM annual value on an extension at the same age as Scherzer, and that was without the open market. Scherzer is $105-110MM over three years for me.
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Post by fanofredsox on Sept 8, 2021 14:26:53 GMT -5
And he'll be worth every penny of it
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2021 14:35:11 GMT -5
And he'll be worth every penny of it Do you think the free agent market is likely to undervalue Scherzer?
I like the idea of him joining the Sox as much as anyone but the more I think about it, the more I think he might get 4 years or even 5. In which case, that's a pass for me. (But in any event, I still don't know why he wouldn't sign on the West Coast when he's been clear that that's his preference and there are 4 or 5 teams out there who would probably love to have him.)
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 8, 2021 14:38:58 GMT -5
Gee I had Schezer pegged for 3/90 and wondered if I was overshooting.
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 8, 2021 15:20:39 GMT -5
Scherzer signed a 7 yr $210M contract in 2015 (AAV: $28.7M)
During that time fangraphs has his value at $312M and that includes the corona season...
To get $100M overproduction, from such a hefty contact, by a picher...is kind of bonkers...
That man is a unicorn
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cdj
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Posts: 14,216
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Post by cdj on Sept 8, 2021 15:24:07 GMT -5
I’d give Scherzer 2/70 or 3/100
Yes it’s a risk but as the post above says, he’s kind of a unicorn. Plus it’s not a long term risk
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 8, 2021 15:59:45 GMT -5
Scherzer signed a 7 yr $210M contract in 2015 (AAV: $28.7M) During that time fangraphs has his value at $312M and that includes the corona season... To get $100M overproduction, from such a hefty contact, by a picher...is kind of bonkers... That man is a unicorn I remember that was the year the Sox gave Lester that ridiculous contract extension offer and he and Max entered the free agent market. As much as I loved Jon I wanted Max but the Sox were still stuck on the no long term deal philosophy. They did a 180 and signed David Price the next year. If only they switched gears a year sooner.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 8, 2021 17:10:16 GMT -5
Im going to bet that the 3rd highest paid pitcher on the payroll next year is David Price.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 9, 2021 2:35:07 GMT -5
I'm not doubting Steve Adams projection, but that's 1 more year and a higher AAV than the closest comp (Verlander) and Fangraphs projected he was worth (100k) over that contract.
Maybe he's the ONLY (in recent history) non-Clemens outlier, but at some point the Unicorn is going to lose it's horn, and once the horn falls off all you're left with is a horse. You wouldn't pay 100mil for a horse would you?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 9, 2021 2:53:45 GMT -5
You can see the overall stats which I provided, but in terms of 4 inning appearances where he's given up 1-2 runs, that has only occurred twice this year. In his start prior to last he held the Indians scoreless and hitless through 5 innings - which is pretty dominant. The biggest difference this year is his walk rate, which has been by far the best he has posted at any stop in his professional career. OK, definitely a air point that he cut his walks way down, which was his major issue last year despite the results (and is what's fueling the various FIP, etc. improvements). I guess I was looking more at end results than anything. I'll cede that he's probably been better in the innings that he's pitched. But I use that particular phrasing on purpose. That said, the fact they're not giving him nearly as much of a leash this year because of the third-time-through-the-order issue and the fact they're competing instead of... whatever last year was must be considered. In 10 starts this year he has recorded one out in the 6th inning. Last year he recorded 6 in 3 starts. It's a crude measure but it's just to make a point. Yes, he was dominant for 5 in his second-to-last start... then the wheels came off, and last time, even though he was absolutely cruising through 5 again, they didn't even let him start the sixth. That's pretty telling. In my head, I guess I'm factoring that "early exit" penalty in saying he's been worse. Like what would his numbers look like in a year in which they didn't care and just let him work through his third-time issues to try and get past 6 full? I'm very happy that Cora pulled him after 5 innings (and only 68 pitches) in his last start. There have been a couple of instances where I check gamecast (I haven't been able to watch many games this year) and have to hold myself back from yelling at the screen 'why is Houck still in the game Cora!'; after which Houck proceeded to get shelled. It is interesting that he pitched for a longer period of time last year in 2 of those 3 starts without seeming to have negative side effect. Looking a little closer, in 2020 he pitched 3 innings and gave up 2 walks, no hits and had 1 strikeout in his third trip through the lineup. It stands out that the results indicate that he had no negative effects while having 1 fewer pitches to throw (only threw splitter 2.3% of the time last year - and that number seems fuzzy) but also stands out that he had only 1 strikeout, so maybe that number is more indicative of how he was performing? Maybe the pitch mix was different which allowed him to go further? Maybe because he was throwing softer (almost 2mph per pitch on average) he was able to go longer? Maybe I'm spending far too much time trying to analyze a very small sample size? (it's probably this one) What do you think? Has there actually been a negative change in performance/ability for the 3rd time through the lineup or did the Red Sox just not care last year and received lucky results?
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 9, 2021 3:16:03 GMT -5
Scherzer signed a 7 yr $210M contract in 2015 (AAV: $28.7M) During that time fangraphs has his value at $312M and that includes the corona season... To get $100M overproduction, from such a hefty contact, by a picher...is kind of bonkers... That man is a unicorn I remember that was the year the Sox gave Lester that ridiculous contract extension offer and he and Max entered the free agent market. As much as I loved Jon I wanted Max but the Sox were still stuck on the no long term deal philosophy. They did a 180 and signed David Price the next year. If only they switched gears a year sooner. Yeah...they did that...once...looking at the results, I don't think they will do that again
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Post by nuttyredsox on Sept 9, 2021 3:25:52 GMT -5
Scherzer, will not come to the RS, he wants to stay in the West coast, so just forget about him, Bloom will find another jam around and we will go younger.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 9, 2021 5:50:10 GMT -5
I’d give Scherzer 2/70 or 3/100 Yes it’s a risk but as the post above says, he’s kind of a unicorn. Plus it’s not a long term risk If we want to win next year then 100% agree. But I could see Garrett Richards 2.0.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2021 6:24:29 GMT -5
I remember that was the year the Sox gave Lester that ridiculous contract extension offer and he and Max entered the free agent market. As much as I loved Jon I wanted Max but the Sox were still stuck on the no long term deal philosophy. They did a 180 and signed David Price the next year. If only they switched gears a year sooner. Yeah...they did that...once...looking at the results, I don't think they will do that again They will one day, there will come a day when the Sox decide they are going to go out and pay top dollar for the best FA on the market. I believe that at least. It's a lot easier to stay away from those contracts while you're currently being burned by one. My comment, was more of a fantasy I had back then that if the Sox had changed their organizational philosophy on signing top FA pitchers one year sooner, they very well may have signed Max Scherzer back in 2015, and who knows in an attempt to outbid WAS we might have added that extra year. If nothing else Max is an example of how those deals don't always burn you, but he's also one of those generational talents that doesn't do a whole lot of regression in his 30's. But this is the last I'll comment on such, as it's completely irrelevant to today. Would have, could have, should have BS.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2021 6:39:36 GMT -5
I heard Thor is going to be looking for a job next year.
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