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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 12, 2021 14:16:39 GMT -5
Well, this is very strange. (Numbers correct now, too!)
These last 15 games resemble the first 14 of the season. At the start of the season, the team went 5-9 in becoming the first team to establish a 75% chance of winning. In this stretch, they’ve been even worse, 5-10. That's a .345 leading percentage (hereafter Lead%). You cannot succeed that way! Unless you win 100% of the time when you get to 75%, and more than 50% of the time when you fall to 25%. Which they have done. They were 5-4 when they established a 75% likelihood of losing in the first 14 games of the year, and 5-5 in the last 15. In between? They had a .629 Lead% (22-13). If you simply had average pitching and average hitting after that, you'd win 102 games. So it's clear that that's a terrific percentage. And the Sox did manage to play .773 ball when they got to 75% first (17-5). But the comebacks almost disappeared. They were just 2-11 when they fell to 25% (.154). As a result, the Sox have had a .679 Win% in the two stretches totaling 29 games where they had a .345 Lead%, and a .543 Win% in the 35 intervening games when they had a .629 Lead%. So, mode 1 (45% of season): Early offense and pitching: awful Bullpen (and starters settling down): perfect Offense mid-game and late: extraordinary Mode 2 (55% of season) Early offense and pitching: terrific Bullpen (and starters settling down): average Offense mid-game and late: relatively lifeless The bullpen (combined with starters settling down) has gone perfect, average, perfect. That requires no explanation. The offense mid-late has gone amazing, subpar, amazing. I've always thought that this was streaky at a team level because of team psychology and confidence, but this pattern is stark. What's mysterious is why the team's success at (confidence in?) coming from behind seems to be function of how well they play early. There may be a psychological explanation for that, but you (by which I mean I) can always come up with a psychological explanation. In this case, when the team starts struggling early, maybe the hitters get fired up and do their in-game homework a la JDM, have success, and the success breeds confidence. When they're playing great early, the hitters lose some focus, start taking their PA for granted, and when the results are poor, this yields pressing in the clutch even once they've gone back to doing the homework. It's possible to examine this hypothesis by diving down into the game and inning level! And I'm not going to. I will, however, periodically update this. --- The last time we blew a 75% win was May 25 vs. the Braves, when the Sox had a 1-0 lead in the second with runners on the corner and nobody out against Morton, after Santana tripled, and Dalbec fanned and Kiké hit into a GDP. That's the only one of their five blown 75%'s when their Win Probability peaked early; in the preceding 4, they still had a .750 WP in the 8th, 6th, 8th, and 9th (the last two being Barnes' two BS). They had a comeback the next day, the game that Devers tied in the 3rd and doubled in the go-ahead run in the 6th. Last night they came back from an .090 WPA, best of the season, edging the April 10th game in Baltimore (.095). That was the game where they were down 1 with 2 outs left, Marwin singled, Franchy lined one down the RF line, and Dalbec got the tying run in on a forceout, and they won in the 10th when they scored on a fly ball and WP, CV added an insurance run, and Andriese breezed through the bottom of the frame for the save. Halcyon days when Franchy and Andriese were heroes! |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2021 11:56:31 GMT -5
Top 25 players in MLB in Win Probability Added per PA, expressed as Wins per 600 PA. Adjusted for leverage, and everyone gets +0.25 because FanGraphs does not adjust for MLB offense level (which is very tricky). Name Team PA W/600
Shohei Ohtani LAA 254 7.79
Brand. Crawford SFG 222 7.18
V. Guerrero Jr. TOR 282 6.96
Matt Olson OAK 267 6.63
Jesse Winker CIN 260 6.57
Jose Ramirez CLE 268 6.28
Christi. Arroyo BOS 130 5.80
Ramon Laureano OAK 210 5.79
Fern. Tatis Jr. SDP 219 5.78
Yadier Molina STL 185 5.67
Christi. Yelich MIL 141 5.53
Starling Marte MIA 140 5.34
Rona. Acuna Jr. ATL 270 5.19
Sean Murphy OAK 212 5.04
J.D. Martinez BOS 273 4.93
Rafael Devers BOS 275 4.68
Alex Verdugo BOS 263 4.59
D.J. Stewart BAL 175 4.44
Colin Moran PIT 141 4.24
Max Muncy LAD 244 4.11
Ni. Castellanos CIN 268 4.07
Teos. Hernandez TOR 214 4.06
Aaron Judge NYY 264 4.00
Joey Wendle TBR 222 3.89
Mike Trout LAA 146 3.87
It's quite interesting that the only other lower-PA interloper who is not a star is Colin Moran. But it's also true that he was the #6 overall pick in the draft and Arroyo was the #25.
Meanwhile, in totals rather than rates:
+1.90 Alex Verdugo -0.54 Mookie Betts
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Post by manfred on Jun 17, 2021 12:04:25 GMT -5
Top 25 players in MLB in Win Probability Added per PA, expressed as Wins per 600 PA. Adjusted for leverage, and everyone gets +0.25 because FanGraphs does not adjust for MLB offense level (which is very tricky). Name Team PA W/600
Shohei Ohtani LAA 254 7.79
Brand. Crawford SFG 222 7.18
V. Guerrero Jr. TOR 282 6.96
Matt Olson OAK 267 6.63
Jesse Winker CIN 260 6.57
Jose Ramirez CLE 268 6.28
Christi. Arroyo BOS 130 5.80
Ramon Laureano OAK 210 5.79
Fern. Tatis Jr. SDP 219 5.78
Yadier Molina STL 185 5.67
Christi. Yelich MIL 141 5.53
Starling Marte MIA 140 5.34
Rona. Acuna Jr. ATL 270 5.19
Sean Murphy OAK 212 5.04
J.D. Martinez BOS 273 4.93
Rafael Devers BOS 275 4.68
Alex Verdugo BOS 263 4.59
D.J. Stewart BAL 175 4.44
Colin Moran PIT 141 4.24
Max Muncy LAD 244 4.11
Ni. Castellanos CIN 268 4.07
Teos. Hernandez TOR 214 4.06
Aaron Judge NYY 264 4.00
Joey Wendle TBR 222 3.89
Mike Trout LAA 146 3.87
It's quite interesting that the only other lower-PA interloper who is not a star is Colin Moran. But it's also true that he was the #6 overall pick in the draft and Arroyo was the #25.
Meanwhile, in totals rather than rates:
+1.90 Alex Verdugo -0.54 Mookie Betts
Hey, we’re either passed Mookie or no. I try to ignore this stuff, but c’mon. The other day, just as you were gloating about his leadoff homers, he was hitting a huge 7th inning homer. Now you’re micro-stating, ignoring that in a down, injury-plagued year, he is 3rd in the NL for player-WAR. And for all the $30-million talk, he is actually making $22 million this year. So in 58 games he’s close to breaking even WAR:$. Verdugo is good. The Sox got what they could get. Let’s not be silly. It’s a haiku. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2021 12:11:04 GMT -5
In actual totals, there's a bit of a gap between #12 and #13, so I'll show that ... Name Team PA Tot
Ohtani LAA 254 3.30
Guerrero Jr. TOR 282 3.27
Olson OAK 267 2.95
Winker CIN 260 2.85
Ramirez CLE 268 2.81
Crawford SFG 222 2.66
Acuna Jr. ATL 270 2.34
Martinez BOS 273 2.24
Devers BOS 275 2.15
Tatis Jr. SDP 219 2.11
Laureano OAK 210 2.03
Verdugo BOS 263 2.01
Castellanos CIN 268 1.82
Sox at 8, 9, and 12. A's have 3 and 11 (and also 14, Sean Murphy).
This I couldn't resist: Name Team PA Tot W/600
J.D. Martinez BOS 273 2.24 4.93
Rafael Devers BOS 275 2.15 4.68
Alex Verdugo BOS 263 2.01 4.59
Aaron Judge NYY 264 1.76 4.00
Christi. Arroyo BOS 130 1.26 5.80
Xander Bogaerts BOS 269 1.03 2.30
Gleyber Torres NYY 242 0.52 1.28
Gary Sanchez NYY 187 0.26 0.84
Christ. Vazquez BOS 222 0.17 0.46
Hunter Renfroe BOS 223 0.13 0.36
DJ LeMahieu NYY 284 0.02 0.03
Bobby Dalbec BOS 202 -0.07 -0.21
Gio Urshela NYY 238 -0.24 -0.60
Gianca. Stanton NYY 197 -0.31 -0.95
Rougned Odor NYY 143 -0.34 -1.41
Brett Gardner NYY 171 -0.44 -1.53
Aaron Hicks NYY 126 -0.46 -2.18
Marwin Gonzalez BOS 207 -0.49 -1.42
Clint Frazier NYY 187 -0.92 -2.96
Enri. Hernandez BOS 222 -1.08 -2.91
Yankees have six guys worse than Dalbec (by total or by rate). Think about that.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 17, 2021 12:11:21 GMT -5
Top 25 players in MLB in Win Probability Added per PA, expressed as Wins per 600 PA. Adjusted for leverage, and everyone gets +0.25 because FanGraphs does not adjust for MLB offense level (which is very tricky). Name Team PA W/600
Shohei Ohtani LAA 254 7.79
Brand. Crawford SFG 222 7.18
V. Guerrero Jr. TOR 282 6.96
Matt Olson OAK 267 6.63
Jesse Winker CIN 260 6.57
Jose Ramirez CLE 268 6.28
Christi. Arroyo BOS 130 5.80
Ramon Laureano OAK 210 5.79
Fern. Tatis Jr. SDP 219 5.78
Yadier Molina STL 185 5.67
Christi. Yelich MIL 141 5.53
Starling Marte MIA 140 5.34
Rona. Acuna Jr. ATL 270 5.19
Sean Murphy OAK 212 5.04
J.D. Martinez BOS 273 4.93
Rafael Devers BOS 275 4.68
Alex Verdugo BOS 263 4.59
D.J. Stewart BAL 175 4.44
Colin Moran PIT 141 4.24
Max Muncy LAD 244 4.11
Ni. Castellanos CIN 268 4.07
Teos. Hernandez TOR 214 4.06
Aaron Judge NYY 264 4.00
Joey Wendle TBR 222 3.89
Mike Trout LAA 146 3.87
It's quite interesting that the only other lower-PA interloper who is not a star is Colin Moran. But it's also true that he was the #6 overall pick in the draft and Arroyo was the #25.
Meanwhile, in totals rather than rates:
+1.90 Alex Verdugo -0.54 Mookie Betts
Hey, we’re either passed Mookie or no. I try to ignore this stuff, but c’mon. The other day, just as you were gloating about his leadoff homers, he was hitting a huge 7th inning homer. Now you’re micro-stating, ignoring that in a down, injury-plagued year, he is 3rd in the NL for player-WAR. And for all the $30-million talk, he is actually making $22 million this year. So in 58 games he’s close to breaking even WAR:$. Verdugo is good. The Sox got what they could get. Let’s not be silly. It’s a haiku. If you're going to complain about cherry picking stats probably should use AAV since that is what teams care about. He'll still be worth that this year (barring injury) but no need to overstate the value. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 18, 2021 18:56:39 GMT -5
Top 25 players in MLB in Win Probability Added per PA, expressed as Wins per 600 PA. Adjusted for leverage, and everyone gets +0.25 because FanGraphs does not adjust for MLB offense level (which is very tricky). Name Team PA W/600
Shohei Ohtani LAA 254 7.79
Brand. Crawford SFG 222 7.18
V. Guerrero Jr. TOR 282 6.96
Matt Olson OAK 267 6.63
Jesse Winker CIN 260 6.57
Jose Ramirez CLE 268 6.28
Christi. Arroyo BOS 130 5.80
Ramon Laureano OAK 210 5.79
Fern. Tatis Jr. SDP 219 5.78
Yadier Molina STL 185 5.67
Christi. Yelich MIL 141 5.53
Starling Marte MIA 140 5.34
Rona. Acuna Jr. ATL 270 5.19
Sean Murphy OAK 212 5.04
J.D. Martinez BOS 273 4.93
Rafael Devers BOS 275 4.68
Alex Verdugo BOS 263 4.59
D.J. Stewart BAL 175 4.44
Colin Moran PIT 141 4.24
Max Muncy LAD 244 4.11
Ni. Castellanos CIN 268 4.07
Teos. Hernandez TOR 214 4.06
Aaron Judge NYY 264 4.00
Joey Wendle TBR 222 3.89
Mike Trout LAA 146 3.87
It's quite interesting that the only other lower-PA interloper who is not a star is Colin Moran. But it's also true that he was the #6 overall pick in the draft and Arroyo was the #25.
Meanwhile, in totals rather than rates:
+1.90 Alex Verdugo -0.54 Mookie Betts
Hey, weâre either passed Mookie or no. I try to ignore this stuff, but câmon. The other day, just as you were gloating about his leadoff homers, he was hitting a huge 7th inning homer. Now youâre micro-stating, ignoring that in a down, injury-plagued year, he is 3rd in the NL for player-WAR. And for all the $30-million talk, he is actually making $22 million this year. So in 58 games heâs close to breaking even WAR:$. Verdugo is good. The Sox got what they could get. Letâs not be silly. Itâs a haiku. I'm actually delighted that Mookie had a big hit, his biggest of the season so far. I can't explain a hitter of his caliber going 0 for his 19 highest leverage PA's without it being in his head. Maybe this frees him from that.
But, really, now, a tie-breaking solo homer in the 7th is not a "huge" hit. Raffy has 7 bigger hits this year, Verdugo, JDM, Xander, Dalbec, and Arroyo all have three each (Arroyo of course in the last 7 games), CV and Marwin 2 each, and Kiké has one. If I had predicted that at this point in the season, Mookie's most valuable PA would rank 28th if on the Red Sox, you would have called me delusional. But it's true, and it is stunning.
As far as "micro-stating" by omitting his WAR, I think you don't get what WAR is good for. It's not descriptive. It doesn't tell you how valuable a player has been. It tells you how valuable you can expect a player with a certain set of counting stats, plus estimates of his defense and baserunning, to be, all things being equal, and hence going forward, at least in the short term. It represents the player's talent, and it is predictive.
No one's saying Mookie isn't a still a first rate offensive talent. In his down year he ranks 47th out of 265 players (130 PA) in wRC+. I'm talking strictly about his actual offensive value, including the situation. And when you look at when he has hit what he has hit ... he has been the 185th best hitter.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2021 0:04:55 GMT -5
I think the Mookie WPA thing is totally fluky, but flukes are interesting, even if they aren't predictive.
He's sort of a weird conjurer of WAR, though. Like he's not having a *great* offensive year, the defensive stats don't love him (no idea if that's real or not), he even missed some time with an injury... yet he is somehow on pace for a 5-6 WAR season. It's why I expect him to be a solid, valuable player well into his 30s; there are just so many ways he adds value.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2021 0:18:55 GMT -5
How many times this year has bad relief pitching turned a win (75%+ chance) into a loss?
They blew a 3-2 lead in the 8th inning on April 22 vs. the Mariners, and lost in the 10th, but that was on an Ottavino error.
On May 1st in Texas, Andriese took over from E-Rod in the 6th with the team up 5-4, and promptly coughed up 3 legitimate runs, the key hit being Willie Calhoun's 2-run jack.
The next day they blew a 3-2 lead in the 8th when Ottavino walked the leadoff hitter and gave up a 2-out single to Dahl, a not-hard liner (94.9, .590 xBA), and (after another walk) Barnes gave up the go-ahead runs on a well-placed single by Brock Holt, 92.1 and .490 (and a Verdugo error). You can pin some of giving up the lead on Ottavino, but the two hits in this inning combined for 1.08 expected hits, and there was a much better chance of escaping unscored upon than coughing it up. Call this 25% of a win, rounding down because neither ball was hard hit. The rest is opponent skill plus bad luck.
And then on May 16th there was the game Ohtahni beat Barnes. All opponent skill plus luck.
So that's it. The current trusted top 6 relievers have are 1/4 responsible for turning a win into a loss by bad pitching. You can point at the leadoff walk to Nate Lowe, and his subsequent stolen base, as the season low point for the current top 6 relievers, in terms of losing games for the team. Not bad for nearly half the season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 29, 2021 1:31:54 GMT -5
I think the Mookie WPA thing is totally fluky, but flukes are interesting, even if they aren't predictive. He's sort of a weird conjurer of WAR, though. Like he's not having a *great* offensive year, the defensive stats don't love him (no idea if that's real or not), he even missed some time with an injury... yet he is somehow on pace for a 5-6 WAR season. It's why I expect him to be a solid, valuable player well into his 30s; there are just so many ways he adds value. We need to get back to basics. Betts' BABIP is down where it was in 2017 - .269 - and his BA mirrors that as it did then. But his isolated discipline is nearly .120 and that's big. So his OPS+ has remained high. That's the reason why his WAR is almost 3. He's still quite valuable getting on base 37% of the time. He's just having some bad luck when he makes contact. |
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Post by incandenza on Jun 29, 2021 15:48:30 GMT -5
I think the Mookie WPA thing is totally fluky, but flukes are interesting, even if they aren't predictive. He's sort of a weird conjurer of WAR, though. Like he's not having a *great* offensive year, the defensive stats don't love him (no idea if that's real or not), he even missed some time with an injury... yet he is somehow on pace for a 5-6 WAR season. It's why I expect him to be a solid, valuable player well into his 30s; there are just so many ways he adds value. We need to get back to basics. Betts' BABIP is down where it was in 2017 - .269 - and his BA mirrors that as it did then. But his isolated discipline is nearly .120 and that's big. So his OPS+ has remained high. That's the reason why his WAR is almost 3. He's still quite valuable getting on base 37% of the time. He's just having some bad luck when he makes contact. Is he having bad luck though? His wOBA is .364 and his xwOBA is .360. When he slumped in Boston I remember a lot of popouts to RF. If he's doing that while also no longer getting the benefit of the Green Monster he may just tend to have a naturally low BABIP. His EVs and barrel percentages have also declined slightly each year since 2018. Same goes for his xBA and xSLG.
All this might be pointing to a player who has a naturally low BABIP now that he's playing in Dodger Stadium - or who is, frankly, showing subtle signs of decline (while still being a great player, of course).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2021 17:56:38 GMT -5
So, I keep track of games where the winning team had a Win Probability of less than 25% at some point. Let's look at games where that WP was in the 7th inning or later -- late clutch wins and losses. They are usually bullpen failures, but they can also be clutch hitting failures (or, from the other POV, bullpen recoveries).
The Sox are now 8-4 in late clutch wins and losses, while the Yankees are 6-10. That's the entire lead.
Yankees losses:
4/1, opening day, have the winning run on 3rd with 1 out in the bottom of the 9th (.831). Pinch runner Mike Tauchman, who has stolen 2nd and 3rd, gets thrown out at home on LeMahieu's grounder to 3rd, and Judge fans. Jays win in 10.
5/6 vs. Astros. Leading 3-1 in the 7th with 1 out and bases empty (.864), Cole gives up a solo shot to Alvarez, then in the 8th Green gets just 1 out and Altuve hits a 3-run bomb.
5/28 in Detroit, leading 2-1 in the 10th with 2 outs and the auto runner on 3rd (.833). Robbie Grossman hits a walk-off homer off of Justin Wilson.
6/6 you know. MFY's had .813 entering the 7th before Marwin homered to tie it.
6/10. Leading 5-3 after 8 (.921), Chapman gives up 1B, game-tying Josh Donaldson HR, single, Nelson Cruz walk-off bomb.
6/22. Break a 2-2 tie in the 7th vs. the Royals, and have men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out (.816), but strand them, and Loasiga gives up 4 in the top of the 8th.
6/30. The Chapman slam game (.988). Hard to top that.
7/4. Double-header against the Mets, leading 5-4 and get the leadoff runner on in the bottom of the 6th (.885), but don't score. Chapman gives up the tying homer to Alonso, and as with the previouss entry, Luetge comes in and gives up the actual winning runs (2 inherited and 3 of his own this time, versus just the latter on 6/30). Deja vu!
7/11. Actually get the first 2 guys on with a 5-run lead in the top of the 9th (.994; I didn't say 6/30 would be impossible to top). Of course they fail to score, Green relieves German with 2 on and nobody out and gives up 6 runs, climaxing with ... a 3-run bomb ... by Altuve. Deja vu all over again, literally!
7/22. .947.
You'll note that they had 2 of these in their first 50 games, and 8 more in their last 45. Games between collapses (worst collapses in bold): 0, 29, 19, 8, 2, 8, 7, 1, 6, 5.
I think that in a bit I'll look up the Statcast numbers for all the key homers and some of the key hits. Which do we want to be true: suckage, or the crap luck they deserve?
Oh ... in the same stretch of time we have only the 12-ining loss in Oakland.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2021 13:04:10 GMT -5
Take a look at the date of the last post.
The very next day, Ottavino cost them a 94.5% win with an 8th-inning meltdown after Eovaldi ran into trouble.
The day after that, they came back from a 2.7% chance, when they trailed 4-0 in the top of the 8th and the MFY's had two on with no one out Best win of the year. And the next day, they blew an early lead against the Jays and came back from 24.7% in the 8th.
It's been all downhill from there, of course. They're 3 - 6 in games won after being below 25%.
Sox after establishing a 90% win chance? 92.5%. Better than average, still. But:
25-0 27-1 (the Ohtani homer off of Barnes)
13-2 10-3
That's right: 52-1 and then 23-5.
More breakdowns later, probably.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 5:34:48 GMT -5
Sox clutch hitting. All numbers represent the difference from baseline. So Schwarber was not the guy you'd least want to come up in a key situation -- he's the guy who was least good relative to his overall numbers.
All figures are in wins per 600 PA. So the SSS guys should of course be taken with a grain of salt. B/O is Base/Out situation clutch. I/S is Inning / Score situation clutch. Name PA B/O I/S Tot
Christi. Arroyo 181 0.5 3.7 4.2
Jarren Duran 112 0.9 2.8 3.7
Michael Chavis 82 -1.7 4.0 2.3
Franchy Cordero 136 2.2 -0.2 2.1
Alex Verdugo 604 0.2 1.3 1.5
Danny Santana 127 2.8 -2.1 0.7
Christ. Vazquez 498 -0.8 1.3 0.5
Jose Iglesias 64 -1.1 1.2 0.1
Jonathan Arauz 75 -2.3 2.3 0.0
Rafael Devers 664 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Marwin Gonzalez 271 -1.1 1.0 -0.1
Hunter Renfroe 572 0.1 -0.7 -0.6
J.D. Martinez 634 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7
Kiké Hernandez 585 -0.7 -0.3 -1.0
Bobby Dalbec 453 0.1 -1.2 -1.1
Xander Bogaerts 603 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3
Travis Shaw 48 0.9 -3.0 -2.1
Kevin Plawecki 173 -0.9 -1.3 -2.2
Kyle Schwarber 168 -0.2 -2.2 -2.4
Comments:
Of course you knew that the two guys who were at their relative best with guys on were Santana and Franchy, right? Santana actually hit .304 / .385 / .522 in 26 PA with RISP and .151 / .218 /.301 in 101 PA otherwise. Franchy seems to have swung for the fences whenever the bases were empty. Santana seems to have been selling out for power, too.
Duran had a distinct second approach at Woo when we called him up -- much less HR power as the first hitter of the game, but with other better numbers that closed the gap most of the way. His MLB splits may reflect that ... I may look into that later.
Dalbec's bad I/S clutch is very likely from all the hard-throwing guys that populate late-and-close high-leverage situations.
Devers got his I/S clutch up to essentially zero on Sunday, where he earned 23% of his season's WPA. Raffy's 3 biggest hits all came from August 23rd on, the 2-out, game-tying double in the bottom of the 10th that day, and the 2-out, 3-run bomb that broke up a scoreless tie in the 7th vs. the Indians on 9/4 being the other two. In fact, those are 3 of the 5 biggest hits of his career, the other two being the Chapman homer and his game-tying homer leading off the bottom of the 9th off of Fernando Rodney on 7/27/18 (a game that Mookie ended with a walk-off homer the next inning). That's more PA with a .333+ WPA in his last 37 G / 164 PA than in his previous 511 games / 2180 PA.
I don't think it's a coincidence that Sunday's heroics came at the end of a stretch where he seemed much more confident throwing to first (with consistently good results). 60% of his biggest hits in the last 2.7% of his career? That's certainly spectacular, and I think it's real. Whether he's just solid or special in these high-pressure situations remains to be seen.
Speaking of Mookie ...
Dugie had 2.2 bWAR and fWAR. But the 1.5 wins of clutch were real. Mookie had 4.2 (b) or 3.7 (f) but Fangraphs estimates -1.6 clutch. I'll get the real figure at some point, but it's clear that the Verdugod had more actual value this season. Dugie had 13 PA with a WPA of better than .160. Mookie had 3.
Mookie finished 1/27, 4 UBB, 1 IBB, HB with LI > 2.35. That's astonishing. Dugie was 16/35, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 UBB, 3 IBB, 1 HB, 1 SF. That's .457 / .524 / .657 vs. .037 / .212 / .037.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 9, 2021 14:01:44 GMT -5
Mookie gets a lot more value out of his glove than Doogie does.
That said, Mookie's postseason batting numbers aren't pretty (and it was annoying, to me at least, that he was gifted a co-MVP award in the WS last year when Seager had far outshone him but didn't have a camera dedicated to following his every move -- it reminded me of when Brett Farve was co-MVP in the season that Barry Sanders went over 2000 yards, averaging over 6 yds/carry).
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