SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Josh Taylor - Return of the Living Dead
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Jun 15, 2021 8:36:54 GMT -5
Alright it’s time to seriously talk about this. I think this deserves its own thread separate from the bullpen trust meter. Josh Taylor went from a terrible start to the season, with pretty much everyone (including me) demanding he gets DFA’d, to being a Top 3 (you could maybe argue even higher than that?) reliever in the bullpen.
What’s the stat going around now.... 18 appearances (maybe it’s innings pitched?) without a run? Excluding Austin Brice there was a time this season I would have bet my entire bank account on Josh Taylor being the last person to do that.
So what got into him? Anyone want to take a stab at explaining what changed here?
Probably switched to Spider Tack.... (can’t add italics on my phone)
|
|
|
|
Post by Canseco on Jun 15, 2021 8:37:27 GMT -5
Nice thread title.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Jun 15, 2021 8:43:04 GMT -5
I should also point out that Cora saw this happening in his crystal ball.... early in the season kept trotting him out in 1 run games despite the fact that he was repetitively getting shelled.... almost gave me an aneurism at the time but I guess he was right.
|
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2021 9:13:53 GMT -5
I should also point out that Cora saw this happening in his crystal ball.... early in the season kept trotting him out in 1 run games despite the fact that he was repetitively getting shelled.... almost gave me an aneurism at the time but I guess he was right. He got shelled in his first two appearances in that cursed Baltimore series. And then he had another bad outing on April 21st. That's really it. People did indeed spend another 6 or 8 weeks demanding he get DFA'd, but from 4/7 to 5/9 he had an ERA of 3.09, FIP of 3.58, and xFIP of 3.67, and he's only gotten better since then. He's had a negative WPA in exactly two games since the Baltimore series: -.127 against Toronto in that April 21st game and -.001 on April 24th.
I think he was mostly just a victim of early stat skew - his first two appearances were so bad that his ERA stayed high for a really long time, so people were like "Aw man, Cora bringing in the guy with the 6 ERA again!" He was probably also a victim of the 2020 small sample size: a 9.82 ERA in 7 IP, which made it easy to toss him into the "motley crew of terrible pitchers" pile. That was despite his being quite good in 47 IP in 2019.
In short, I think Josh Taylor was a victim of our cognitive biases and some statistical flukery based on his starting the season out of sorts for whatever reason. But by May 10th I thought it was clear that he didn't deserve that reputation.
ADD: Even when he sort of was getting shelled his peripherals looked a lot better. Every run he gave up came between 4/2 and 4/24, and he had a 9.82 ERA during that stretch, but a FIP/xFIP of only 4.11/4.02. Four of the nine runs he's given up this season came on 4/4, and in that appearance he had 1 BB and 2 Ks in 0.2 innings, but the Orioles went 5-5 on balls in play. A BABIP of 1.000 is generally regarded as unsustainable; he actually had a 1.65 FIP for that game.
ADD2: I should say, though he wasn't nearly as bad as people thought in April, he wasn't the ace reliever he's been since then either. So I don't mean to imply there's no improvement to be explained here! Just that it's not the sort of out-of-nowhere switch-flipping that needs an "Andriese taught him a new pitch that he immediately mastered" Whitlock-type explanation.
|
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2021 9:28:47 GMT -5
^ this right here. Well done.
|
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jun 15, 2021 9:32:06 GMT -5
I'm a huge fan of statistical flukery
|
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jun 15, 2021 9:39:24 GMT -5
Alright it’s time to seriously talk about this. I think this deserves its own thread separate from the bullpen trust meter. Josh Taylor went from a terrible start to the season, with pretty much everyone (including me) demanding he gets DFA’d, to being a Top 3 (you could maybe argue even higher than that?) reliever in the bullpen. What’s the stat going around now.... 18 appearances (maybe it’s innings pitched?) without a run? Excluding Austin Brice there was a time this season I would have bet my entire bank account on Josh Taylor being the last person to do that. So what got into him? Anyone want to take a stab at explaining what changed here? Probably switched to Spider Tack.... (can’t add italics on my phone) I think this is generally why I hardly ever jump all over a player for being bad. Forever hopeful they will turn it around and perform like they did to get there or maybe I am just a homer. Great development for the pen and hopefully he can keep it up. As for the why is he all of a sudden pitching great, no idea, that's above my paygrade. |
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jun 15, 2021 9:41:07 GMT -5
This is just another example of what we all know: relief pitchers are the most unpredictable commodity in baseball.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2021 11:45:23 GMT -5
 Looks like his velo has been creeping up? A matter of shaking of 2020 rust? |
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
|
Post by radiohix on Jun 15, 2021 12:21:10 GMT -5
Alright it’s time to seriously talk about this. I think this deserves its own thread separate from the bullpen trust meter. Josh Taylor went from a terrible start to the season, with pretty much everyone (including me) demanding he gets DFA’d, to being a Top 3 (you could maybe argue even higher than that?) reliever in the bullpen. What’s the stat going around now.... 18 appearances (maybe it’s innings pitched?) without a run? Excluding Austin Brice there was a time this season I would have bet my entire bank account on Josh Taylor being the last person to do that. So what got into him? Anyone want to take a stab at explaining what changed here? Probably switched to Spider Tack.... (can’t add italics on my phone) Counterpoint: his stuff is near batting practice many nights. And given that the Sox have alternatives, they don’t have to have a long leash. He gave up 15 hits, 13 of them were singles and the other 2 were doubles. Again, it's April! I would be worried if he was sitting 89 mph or something but that's not the case. Crazy sh*t happens in small sample sizes and I for one would worry if my FO makes roster decisions based on that. His last outing: Walks the LHH 7th hitter 8th hitter launches a rocket, ends up a very lucky double play Walks the 9th hitter At some point while pitching to the LHH leadoff hitter, Remy or Eck said "Taylor hasn't thrown a competitive pitch yet". Manages two phenomenal pitches after that comment to pull off the strikeout. He actually walks the RHH 7th hitter in Severino (usually bats 5th vs LHP) I won't call a 91.9 mph liner a "rocket" Then he dominates a LHH (Cedric Mullins) who sports the 3rd highest avg (.380) and OPS (1.016) vs LHP in MLB which is something he's been doing at elite level so far this season (1.05 FIP). Again, I don't wanna sound like a broken record but we're talking about tiny sample sizes but here's something we could draw some conclusions of: Josh Taylor's Fastball velocity chartsAs you can see, there's a significant jump in velocity from his firsts outing and it's trending up (already passed his COVID altered 2020 season). My guess is (cause we're all guessing at this point 😅) he'll be fine. I always believed in him and that whole bullpen thread is just an extension of the worst threads in this otherwise awesome forum: The Series threads 😂 |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 15, 2021 13:38:38 GMT -5
Since April 24th, over 18 games 14 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks, 18 strikeouts, 8 holds, zero runs and a .149 BA allowed. He's been just okay I guess.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 15, 2021 15:38:11 GMT -5
After last night I decided that the first thing I would do when I got up is run all of the bullpen xwOBA (xERA) splits by time chunks. Of course I forgot ...
Taylor's season breaks really clearly into three stretches. In each one, the top line is expected and bottom line is actual, with the = at the end being the (x)wOBA.
4/2 to 4/24, 9 G, 8.1 IP, 46 BFP
.390 / .457 / .606 = .454 .415 / .478 / .571 = .451
This was where it seemed he needed to be optioned, especially since he was bad last year.
He then got 5 days rest.
4/30 to 5/9, 6 G, 4.1 IP, 23 BFP.
.216 / .314 / .239 = .259 .143 / .250 / .143 = .197
5/9 was his last outing with below average expectations and results. He walked 2 hitters, sandwiched around an LDP with a .710 xBA (but just 91.9 EV). That BB total, in his first 3 hitters, matches what he's done in his subsequent 37.
He then got 9 days rest. I don't recall any reason for that.
5/16 to now, 12 G, 9.2 IP, 36 BFP.
.159 / .229 / .243 = .217 .152 / .222 / .182 = .191
Now, you'd obviously not separate the last two groups if it weren't for the days rest. But his command has been better, and he's been more consistent. He had a lucky outing on May 5 when he came in with a man on 2B and 2 outs and gave up an expected legit-hit GB single (95.9, .540) that Xander made a nice play on to his right.
There are 404 MLB pitchers who have faced 45+ hitters starting May 1. Taylor ranks 22nd in xwOBA and 16th in wOBA.
(There are 394 pitchers with 30+ IP since May 19. Taylor ranks 17th and 24th ... the smaller sample size allows more guys to sneak in ahead of him in wOBA by luck.)
|
|
|
