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Post by Jimmy on Jul 3, 2021 15:10:16 GMT -5
Rather than trashing the MFY & other division foes in the daily game threads I figured we make a more permanent home for such dialogue. Halfway through the season I think it’s finally time to be able to discuss the division picture.
Just wanted to point out that the Sox are 9.5 up on the Yankees and we have 8 games in 11 days coming up against them at the end of July. Ready to see 8 nails in the coffin fellas.
As an aside, Yankees Twitter has been a mess today. Nice being on the other side of it as opposed to last year.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2021 15:19:06 GMT -5
I was just feeling conflicted over who to root for in the Jays/Rays game. Who's more likely to make a run at first place? Seems like a close call!
I still don't put it past the Yankees to put a solid stretch together once they get Severino and/or Kluber back so I'd really like to see them buried before then. Fortunately it looks like that's exactly what they're doing to themselves.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2021 17:48:38 GMT -5
I think the Yankees are done. They still have two west coast trips and a ton of games versus good teams. It will be awhile before they’re healthy and they’re 10 GB right now. Its going to be really ugly if Cole gets lit up on the 4th of July to the Mets.
Not really sure what the Yankees can do to fix their issues other than mail it in like the Red Sox did last year.
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Post by manfred on Jul 3, 2021 20:55:39 GMT -5
I think the Yankees are done. They still have two west coast trips and a ton of games versus good teams. It will be awhile before they’re healthy and they’re 10 GB right now. Its going to be really ugly if Cole gets lit up on the 4th of July to the Mets. Not really sure what the Yankees can do to fix their issues other than mail it in like the Red Sox did last year. Yeah. I admit to being one of the folks who overestimated them, so maybe I’m now underestimating them but… they seem to kinda stink, no? I just don’t see what they can do other than hope the whole lineup gets red hot together (which is not out of the question).
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Post by incandenza on Jul 4, 2021 14:20:03 GMT -5
Games back, fangraphs odds of winning the division:
Red Sox: --, 65.9% Jays: 7.5, 13.8% Rays: 4.5, 10.4% Yanks: 9.5, 10.0%
You could really make a case for any of the other three teams to be most likely to challenge the Red Sox for the division.
Blue Jays: Scary offense, recently got Springer back, have underperformed their pythagorean, potential to improve their pitching.
Rays: Fewest games back obviously makes the task easier, especially with 13 more games against Boston.
Yankees: They look like a mess, but if they get Severino and Kluber back and their offensive potential comes through I could see them reeling off 50+ wins in the second half.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 4, 2021 18:26:26 GMT -5
The thing about the Yankees, in my opinion, is they were not taking into account how dominant right-handed offensively they are. In Yankee Stadium you need that left-handed pop. As much as I dislike NY, I always thought Cashman was on top of things. Running a line-up daily that has few lefthanded hitters and little speed is not a recipe for success. If you take that and their mess of a rotation, the Rays and possibly the Jays are more dangerous.
They better hope Kluber gets back and Severino finally is healthy. Great seeing Chapman melt down on consecutive days!!!
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2021 19:03:02 GMT -5
Chapman's last 6 batters faced: 2 HR (both game-tying), 3 BB, 1 HBP.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 4, 2021 19:38:48 GMT -5
The thing about the Yankees, in my opinion, is they were not taking into account how dominant right-handed offensively they are. In Yankee Stadium you need that left-handed pop. As much as I dislike NY, I always thought Cashman was on top of things. Running a line-up daily that has few lefthanded hitters and little speed is not a recipe for success. If you take that and their mess of a rotation, the Rays and possibly the Jays are more dangerous. They better hope Kluber gets back and Severino finally is healthy. Great seeing Chapman melt down on consecutive days!!! Well, a lot of their right handers go oppo to the short porch in compensation. Still, it's against the grain. Regardless, they hit about the same number of homers as the Sox and have better pitching and defense statistically. Some guys like LeMayhieu and Urshela have underperformed with average. I feel the Sox have been overachievers and the Yanks underachievers so far. Do the Yanks belly-up? Do the Sox continue to beat Pythag? TBC.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 4, 2021 19:59:16 GMT -5
The Yankees absolutely do not have better defense statistically. They're in negative territory by UZR, and downright abysmal by DRS. (Red Sox are well above average in both.) That's one of their several Achilles' heels, and one of the ways Bloom has really done better than Cashman this season I think.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 5, 2021 1:35:17 GMT -5
A position by position comparison shows the Sox are well ahead of the Yankees in wins above average. Who would you take, Urshela or Devers? How about Torres or Bogaerts? Hernandez or Gardner? Lemahieu or Arroyo? They have an advantage in RF and 1b, but that's it.
Cole helps differentiate the starting pitching, but some of their options are just about identical to their Sox equivalents. Kluber would have likely given them an advantage if he's stayed healthy... but he didn't stay healthy. And Sale should be back to even things out. Thanks to Chapman cratering, and Whitlock emerging, the pens are just about the same.
This same idea is all over the NY boards as well, that the Sox are less talented and are overachieving. But this isn't about past performance, it's about now. And right now the Sox have more value and it isn't all that close. Giancarlo over JD?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 5, 2021 2:31:33 GMT -5
Chapman's last 6 batters faced: 2 HR (both game-tying), 3 BB, 1 HBP. Chapman's WPA through June 6, 29 G, 27.1 IP: 1.81. OPS .606.
June 10 to June 20, 6 G, 4.1 IP: -0.47. OPS 1.322.
Can't get worse than that, right?
His last 3 games, 1.1 IP: -1.58. 1.861 OPS.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 5, 2021 5:36:11 GMT -5
A position by position comparison shows the Sox are well ahead of the Yankees in wins above average. Who would you take, Urshela or Devers? How about Torres or Bogaerts? Hernandez or Gardner? Lemahieu or Arroyo? They have an advantage in RF and 1b, but that's it. Cole helps differentiate the starting pitching, but some of their options are just about identical to their Sox equivalents. Kluber would have likely given them an advantage if he's stayed healthy... but he didn't stay healthy. And Sale should be back to even things out. Thanks to Chapman cratering, and Whitlock emerging, the pens are just about the same. This same idea is all over the NY boards as well, that the Sox are less talented and are overachieving. But this isn't about past performance, it's about now. And right now the Sox have more value and it isn't all that close. Giancarlo over JD? Maybe. He got booed off the mound (at Yankee stadium) in his last start. It looks like he’s having a tough time transitioning from sticky stuff. He’s talented enough that you’d think he will eventually solve that, but that huge contract looks pretty awful right now.
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Post by worldbfree on Jul 5, 2021 5:44:55 GMT -5
A position by position comparison shows the Sox are well ahead of the Yankees in wins above average. Who would you take, Urshela or Devers? How about Torres or Bogaerts? Hernandez or Gardner? Lemahieu or Arroyo? They have an advantage in RF and 1b, but that's it. Cole helps differentiate the starting pitching, but some of their options are just about identical to their Sox equivalents. Kluber would have likely given them an advantage if he's stayed healthy... but he didn't stay healthy. And Sale should be back to even things out. Thanks to Chapman cratering, and Whitlock emerging, the pens are just about the same. This same idea is all over the NY boards as well, that the Sox are less talented and are overachieving. But this isn't about past performance, it's about now. And right now the Sox have more value and it isn't all that close. Giancarlo over JD? But don’t you use past performance to predict future outcomes? Voit led the league in home runs last year. He has 3 this year. Torres had 38 home guns a couple of years ago and only 3 this season. Those are two examples of seemingly talented hitters who are underperforming. Is Dalbec more talented than Voit based on this season? I think the Yankees do have more talent top to bottom (based on past performance). They are just playing like crap. Hopefully it continues the rest of the year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 5, 2021 8:31:08 GMT -5
When Torres hit 38, in 2019, BR had him at 3 WAR. They had Bogaerts at 6.8 that year. Verdugo over Andujar is another easy choice. And Vazquez is ahead of Sanchez. Voit is better than Dalbec right now only because he's less under water! Hernandez has 20 times the value of Gardner by BR.
It's not as if their past performance hasn't been predictive either. Gardner is not young and he's been going downhill for a while, Voit may be underperforming but he's 30 and Stanton is 31. They may snap out of it but their team as a whole looks to be badly built in the current environment.
They may jettison Boone just to shake things up but Cashman is the guy who's ultimately responsible for this roster. His days may be numbered also. It's not pretty in New York right now.
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Post by patford on Jul 5, 2021 8:52:56 GMT -5
When Torres hit 38, in 2019, BR had him at 3 WAR. They had Bogaerts at 6.8 that year. Verdugo over Andujar is another easy choice. And Vazquez is ahead of Sanchez. Voit is better than Dalbec right now only because he's less under water! Hernandez has 20 times the value of Gardner by BR. It's not as if their past performance hasn't been predictive either. Gardner is not young and he's been going downhill for a while, Voit may be underperforming but he's 30 and Stanton is 31. They may snap out of it but their team as a whole looks to be badly built in the current environment. They may jettison Boone just to shake things up but Cashman is the guy who's ultimately responsible for this roster. His days may be numbered also. It's not pretty in New York right now. The Sox record is amazing to me but really out of the whole lineup only Renfroe is hitting better than expected and even he is not having a weird outlier type year like Torres and Voit have had in the past. Martinez, Bogaerts and Vazquez are doing what I would expect from them. I think as good as he's been Devers actually has more in him than we have seen and Verdugo probably has a bit more upside. I still feel Dalbec can hit .220-.240 with 40 or more HR. Also at this point Casas isn't knocking down the door.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 5, 2021 9:53:26 GMT -5
I'm actually optimistic about Dalbec also, along the lines you lay out. It'd been painful watching him adjust, but it looks like that's what's happening. He's young enough to put it together I think. Voit's best days may be behind him.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 5, 2021 10:40:31 GMT -5
I think the Yankees are done. They still have two west coast trips and a ton of games versus good teams. It will be awhile before they’re healthy and they’re 10 GB right now. Its going to be really ugly if Cole gets lit up on the 4th of July to the Mets. Not really sure what the Yankees can do to fix their issues other than mail it in like the Red Sox did last year. Yeah. I admit to being one of the folks who overestimated them, so maybe I’m now underestimating them but… they seem to kinda stink, no? I just don’t see what they can do other than hope the whole lineup gets red hot together (which is not out of the question). The Red Sox have 77 games left and the NYY are 10 games behind. The Red Sox would need to pull a 2011 (7-20 in September) to get caught by the Yankees. It is quite possible for TB to catch the Red Sox, but the Red Sox would need a bullpen collapse and injuries to Devers and Bogaerts to be caught by the MFY.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 5, 2021 11:24:39 GMT -5
With as tight as the top has been and with Tampa being in first not long ago it is awesome to see the lead open up a bit. I was more optimistic than most before the season started but who could have imagined the Sox would be here a week before the AS game. 4.5 up on Rays and 8.5, 10 on the Jays and MFYs puts a smile on my face. With all the head to heads coming up post break it will be nice to start out with some breathing room.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 5, 2021 11:43:53 GMT -5
With as tight as the top has been and with Tampa being in first not long ago it is awesome to see the lead open up a bit. I was more optimistic than most before the season started but who could have imagined the Sox would be here a week before the AS game. 4.5 up on Rays and 8.5, 10 on the Jays and MFYs puts a smile on my face. With all the head to heads coming up post break it will be nice to start out with some breathing room. If the Red Sox go .500 against the Yankees and Blue Jays in that 15-game stretch after the all-star break, that all but finishes those two teams off for the division title I think.
I'd still really like to see the Yankees kept out of the playoffs altogether. Just on principle, for one thing; but also they'd still be dangerous with Cole and Severino (and maybe Kluber) and an offense that should be better than it has been. Right now they still have a 38% chance of making the playoffs.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 5, 2021 12:13:39 GMT -5
With as tight as the top has been and with Tampa being in first not long ago it is awesome to see the lead open up a bit. I was more optimistic than most before the season started but who could have imagined the Sox would be here a week before the AS game. 4.5 up on Rays and 8.5, 10 on the Jays and MFYs puts a smile on my face. With all the head to heads coming up post break it will be nice to start out with some breathing room. Yes, the Red Sox will have 45 AL East games out of their last 77 games! Thankfully they have played very well against the ALE with a 21-10 record so far in 2021. Let’s hope the Red Sox can keep it up especially against the NYY (6-0)!
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 8, 2021 8:27:49 GMT -5
Some good news.
The Yankmees are ending the first half in Houston and the Rays and Jays are going head to head this weekend. Should/could be an opportunity to gain some added breathing room before the break. Now go and sweep the Phillies.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 17, 2021 12:56:34 GMT -5
We're in somewhat dangerous territory as the Yankees are down to 24% odds to make the playoffs. Ideally we want them to avoid selling off before the deadline, but that's starting to look more likely.
Between now and the trade deadline they have 6 more games against the Red Sox, 3 against the Rays, and 2 against the Phillies. Fortunately their covid guys will be back for the Rays series; maybe that'll be the shot in the arm they needed (no pun intended) to sweep TB and trick themselves into thinking they might make the playoffs!
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Post by manfred on Jul 17, 2021 13:22:04 GMT -5
We're in somewhat dangerous territory as the Yankees are down to 24% odds to make the playoffs. Ideally we want them to avoid selling off before the deadline, but that's starting to look more likely.
Between now and the trade deadline they have 6 more games against the Red Sox, 3 against the Rays, and 2 against the Phillies. Fortunately their covid guys will be back for the Rays series; maybe that'll be the shot in the arm they needed (no pun intended) to sweep TB and trick themselves into thinking they might make the playoffs!
Serious question; what would they sell at a premium? They have a lot of guys who are old and/or overpriced or likely untouchable (Judge, mainly). I see them as screwed.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 17, 2021 13:40:06 GMT -5
We're in somewhat dangerous territory as the Yankees are down to 24% odds to make the playoffs. Ideally we want them to avoid selling off before the deadline, but that's starting to look more likely.
Between now and the trade deadline they have 6 more games against the Red Sox, 3 against the Rays, and 2 against the Phillies. Fortunately their covid guys will be back for the Rays series; maybe that'll be the shot in the arm they needed (no pun intended) to sweep TB and trick themselves into thinking they might make the playoffs!
Serious question; what would they sell at a premium? They have a lot of guys who are old and/or overpriced or likely untouchable (Judge, mainly). I see them as screwed. Yeah, that question occurred to me, and I'm not real sure what the answer would be. Maybe just a reliever or two. Chad Green? They could try to shoot the moon and unload the Stanton contract on somebody but I would be surprised if they found any takers.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2021 13:44:09 GMT -5
Stanton also has a full NTC.
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