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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2021 23:38:06 GMT -5
Question based on the sizeable possibility that both will be available ... but if Leiter goes 2, we'll also have a sense of how disappointing that is!
I'm asking which would excite you more because our preferences are uninteresting. They know 100 times as much as any of us. But your excitement level is interesting: it's position player versus pitcher, and especially higher ceiling versus higher floor. In fact, it's really what we mean when we state who we hope they pick ... it's the guy you're most psyched about.
If you would regard someone else as more exciting than either, vote anyway, and put the extra guy(s) in an answer.
I'll start: House would be more exciting for me than either (because, remember, they think so). That could happen if Pittsburgh goes under-slot and Texas doesn't grab Mayer, because the Tigers love Mayer.
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 11, 2021 0:16:10 GMT -5
Leiter or Jobe would make me happy.
In terms of excitement between those two - Leiter would be the more exciting pick just because he’s closer.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 11, 2021 0:41:46 GMT -5
Leiter or Jobe would make me happy. In terms of excitement between those two - Leiter would be the more exciting pick just because he’s closer. Leiter would be my first choice if available. It would give the Sox a chance at a low cost star pitcher, and if it were to work out, then there is more budget room to add quality where needed. If Leiter is gone, as I expect, then Davis is my strong second choice because he has a chance at being an All Star catcher, and the Poseys and Realmutos are scarce commodities. After that it is a blur to me. Any of the top HS SS, Rocker, Jobe. |
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 11, 2021 0:46:39 GMT -5
Leiter or Jobe would make me happy. In terms of excitement between those two - Leiter would be the more exciting pick just because he’s closer. Leiter would be my first choice if available. It would give the Sox a chance at a low cost star pitcher, and if it were to work out, then there is more budget room to add quality where needed. If Leiter is gone, as I expect, then Davis is my strong second choice because he has a chance at being an All Star catcher, and the Poseys and Realmutos are scarce commodities. After that it is a blur to me. Any of the top HS SS, Rocker, Jobe. Some of the things said on here about Davis have made my opinion on him grow favorably. I’d also be happy with that pick |
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 11, 2021 9:49:41 GMT -5
I wouldn't be too concerned with whom are selected by the teams above. One of Meyer, Davis, Leiter and Lawler will be available and make us happy.
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Post by jdb on Jul 11, 2021 10:06:43 GMT -5
Equal bc I think Leiter might go way over our slot and take away say picks 3 and 4.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 11, 2021 10:10:09 GMT -5
The most exciting pick for me would be Mayer but to answer this poll I chose Leiter. For me he has more star potential.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 11, 2021 10:14:22 GMT -5
How cool would it be if we could make a deal for number 1? If it was allowable. I voted for Leiter.
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Post by fanofredsox on Jul 11, 2021 12:15:07 GMT -5
If Leiter falls to the Sox I’m sure they’d be ecstatic & so would I
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Post by soxinjersey on Jul 11, 2021 13:48:35 GMT -5
I'm all in on Leiter but would be content with any of the consensus top 8. Like most of you, I trust the FO to make a good decision. That said, I would also be excited about Rocker or House. Most of the players on the early top-10 draft lists have dropped out of sight: that's what happens when players are put under the microscope and observers identify and harp on weaknesses. After a gradual slide (Rocker) and a more precipitous one (House), these players have been re-emerging and pushing back into the conversation despite the intense scrutiny. I'm ready to believe in the upside if the Sox draft one of them. Just by chance, I saw the final innings of Rocker's no-hit performance in the NCAA in 2019. I never imagined we might have a chance to draft him. He competes! I'd love to see him in a Sox uniform.
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Post by mainesox on Jul 11, 2021 14:17:57 GMT -5
I think Leiter is probably the best pick, but I'd be most excited about Watson or maybe Jobe (Jobe would both excite and terrify me).
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 11, 2021 15:04:32 GMT -5
I've read a few mocks & scouting reports, seen a few videos, so basically I know next to zero about these players. Any selection the much better-informed FO makes will be aces with me.
(Aside: it is incomprehensible to me when any fan, no matter how well-studied, offers the opinion they "should" do this, or that.)
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Post by incandenza on Jul 11, 2021 15:32:50 GMT -5
Wow, I figured Leiter would be preferred but I'm amazed at how lopsided this is. Davis is the best college hitter and has a good chance to stick at catcher!
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Post by mainesox on Jul 11, 2021 15:44:23 GMT -5
Wow, I figured Leiter would be preferred but I'm amazed at how lopsided this is. Davis is the best college hitter and has a good chance to stick at catcher! There are questions both about his defense and his bat; his ceiling is a good hitting passable catcher/occasional Allstar type, while his floor is something less than a major league player because he can't stick at catcher and can't hit enough for a corner spot. My issue with him is there are several players who have a higher ceiling or higher floor, and even a handful players with both. |
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 11, 2021 15:50:17 GMT -5
Wow, I figured Leiter would be preferred but I'm amazed at how lopsided this is. Davis is the best college hitter and has a good chance to stick at catcher! There are questions both about his defense and his bat; his ceiling is a good hitting passable catcher/occasional Allstar type, while his floor is something less than a major league player because he can't stick at catcher and can't hit enough for a corner spot. My issue with him is there are several players who have a higher ceiling or higher floor, and even a handful players with both. Keith Law disagrees: "Davis hit .389/.511/.671 for the Cardinals, walking more than he struck out, with power, patience, bat control, and a plus arm. He also offers some certainty in a draft class with very little of it. For more on Davis, check out my in-person scouting report from April. I think of Davis and Mayer as 1 and 1A; Mayer is closer to a consensus top guy, but I don’t think you can go wrong with either player, as both play premium positions, project to stay there, and should hit for average with power upside. In Davis’ case, it’s the uncertainty some scouts have about his future behind the plate that makes me rank him second, although I think he’ll outwork everyone to become an above-average defender." |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 11, 2021 16:01:26 GMT -5
Wow, I figured Leiter would be preferred but I'm amazed at how lopsided this is. Davis is the best college hitter and has a good chance to stick at catcher! There are questions both about his defense and his bat; his ceiling is a good hitting passable catcher/occasional Allstar type, while his floor is something less than a major league player because he can't stick at catcher and can't hit enough for a corner spot. My issue with him is there are several players who have a higher ceiling or higher floor, and even a handful players with both. I think the floor of anyone they might pick is "less than a major league player"; more than half of all #4 picks have put up less than 5 career WAR. Nonetheless, I think Davis' floor is as high as anyone's. I haven't actually seen anyone say his bat wouldn't play if he had to move off of catcher.
Meanwhile, I'm not sure how Leiter got pegged as an absolute can't-miss starting pitcher prospect. He's certainly not Strasburg coming into this draft. Totally reasonable to prefer him - I only slightly prefer Davis myself - but again, I'm just surprised at how lopsided it is.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 11, 2021 16:09:10 GMT -5
I am hopeful the leiter falls to us, but still think rocker is the guy.
Rocker’s velocity decline is because he did not pitch much the year before snd I think put on about 20 pounds from 2019.
I am still worried that without the velocity increase, he can not generate any swing and miss with his fastball. However his slider is an amazing out pitch!
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Post by mainesox on Jul 11, 2021 16:20:04 GMT -5
There are questions both about his defense and his bat; his ceiling is a good hitting passable catcher/occasional Allstar type, while his floor is something less than a major league player because he can't stick at catcher and can't hit enough for a corner spot. My issue with him is there are several players who have a higher ceiling or higher floor, and even a handful players with both. I think the floor of anyone they might pick is "less than a major league player"; more than half of all #4 picks have put up less than 5 career WAR. Nonetheless, I think Davis' floor is as high as anyone's. I haven't actually seen anyone say his bat wouldn't play if he had to move off of catcher. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how Leiter got pegged as an absolute can't-miss starting pitcher prospect. He's certainly not Strasburg coming into this draft. Totally reasonable to prefer him - I only slightly prefer Davis myself - but again, I'm just surprised at how lopsided it is.
When we say floor and ceiling we're really talking about 25th and 75th percentile projections (or something in that vicinity). Sure any one of these guys may not be a major league player, any one of them could be worse than expected just like any of them could be better than expected, but the likelihood of not making it to the majors is higher in some than others. The knock on his bat is that it's all strength, not batspeed, and that's a lot harder to make work at a major league level, and even for the guys who do it tends not to last as long. |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 11, 2021 16:36:21 GMT -5
I think the floor of anyone they might pick is "less than a major league player"; more than half of all #4 picks have put up less than 5 career WAR. Nonetheless, I think Davis' floor is as high as anyone's. I haven't actually seen anyone say his bat wouldn't play if he had to move off of catcher. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how Leiter got pegged as an absolute can't-miss starting pitcher prospect. He's certainly not Strasburg coming into this draft. Totally reasonable to prefer him - I only slightly prefer Davis myself - but again, I'm just surprised at how lopsided it is.
When we say floor and ceiling we're really talking about 25th and 75th percentile projections (or something in that vicinity). Sure any one of these guys may not be a major league player, any one of them could be worse than expected just like any of them could be better than expected, but the likelihood of not making it to the majors is higher in some than others. The knock on his bat is that it's all strength, not batspeed, and that's a lot harder to make work at a major league level, and even for the guys who do it tends not to last as long. I admit to having never really understood what "floor" and "ceiling" meant, given that the floor for every prospect is "washes out" and almost every star player almost by definition exceeds their ceiling. Which implies that even if you favor drafting a "high ceiling" player, you're still realistically just hoping for a solid regular (at least with this draft class).
Anyway, the case against Davis is interesting, but the case against Leiter for me is that an awful lot of his value is tied to a low-to-mid-90s fastball without any truly standout secondary pitch. Seems to me like a decent chance that he ends up closer to the back of a rotation than the front of one. So I guess I don't quite grok the outsized enthusiasm for him (though I will not be complaining if he's their pick!).
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 11, 2021 18:07:21 GMT -5
When we say floor and ceiling we're really talking about 25th and 75th percentile projections (or something in that vicinity). Sure any one of these guys may not be a major league player, any one of them could be worse than expected just like any of them could be better than expected, but the likelihood of not making it to the majors is higher in some than others. The knock on his bat is that it's all strength, not batspeed, and that's a lot harder to make work at a major league level, and even for the guys who do it tends not to last as long. I admit to having never really understood what "floor" and "ceiling" meant, given that the floor for every prospect is "washes out" and almost every star player almost by definition exceeds their ceiling. Which implies that even if you favor drafting a "high ceiling" player, you're still realistically just hoping for a solid regular (at least with this draft class).
Anyway, the case against Davis is interesting, but the case against Leiter for me is that an awful lot of his value is tied to a low-to-mid-90s fastball without any truly standout secondary pitch. Seems to me like a decent chance that he ends up closer to the back of a rotation than the front of one. So I guess I don't quite grok the outsized enthusiasm for him (though I will not be complaining if he's their pick!).
He has the most recognizable name would be my guess. |
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