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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2021 6:54:25 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2021 6:57:15 GMT -5
A list of draft prospects that the Red Sox have been connected to at one point or another:
Ben Rice, C, Dartmouth Luke Albright RHP Kent State Jordan Patty, RHP, Central Michigan Nathan Deschryver, RHP, Bainbridge HS (WA) Daniel Brooks, RHP, Bishop England (SC) Jonathan Santucci, OF, Phillips Academy (MA) Jose Pena, RHP, Tampa Prep (FL) Ty Evans, OF, Lakeland Christian HS (FL) Jake Fox, SS, Lakeland Christian HS (FL) Juan Aracena, C, South Dade Senior HS (FL) Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (SC) Brandon Lankford, 3B, UNC-Asheville Adrian Siravo, RHP, Weatherford College (TX) Rohan Handa, LHP, Yale Luke Holman, RHP, Wilson HS (PA) Nick Mondak, LHP, St. Johns Jack Findlay, LHP, Roxbury HS (NJ) Will Findlay, C/INF, Fordham Cale Lansville, RHP, Thunder Ridge (CO) Tanner McDougal, RHP, Silverado HS (NV) Edwin Arroyo, SS, Central Pointe Christian Academy Payton Green, SS, Pro5 Baseball Academy (NC) Niko Kavadas, 1B, Notre Dame James Triantos, SS, Madison HS (VA) Davis Diaz, SS/C, Acalanes (CA)
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 12, 2021 7:14:32 GMT -5
Doubt it happens due to the that he wants a lot of money, but Jud Fabian is one of the players to keep an eye on. Boston was rumored to really like Jud when he was a projected top 5 pick.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 12, 2021 8:08:20 GMT -5
The depth of this class has been applauded, and I particularly like the depth of the college pitching. I'm a sucker for college pitching as is, but Here are some of my favorites after the top 80ish or so on most boards I'd like to see one of these guys today in the middle rounds. Zeferjahn was among my list in 2019, so there is precedent!
Joe Rock - Ohio (A Mikulski and Rock combo of lefties today would be my favorite thing ever) Mason Miller - Gardner Webb (Really impressed at combine, fastball explodes, surprised he's not higher on the media boards) Mason Black - Lehigh (Reliver risk, but someone I think that can benefit from pro coaching, fastball 97-100, slider flashes above average) Jordan Marks - SC Update (Contro/command specialist, with fastball creeping up to 98. Very Shane Bieber-esque profile when Bieber was drafted) Tanner Bibee- Cal State Fullerton (Another control specialist with 4 pitch mix) Kevin Abel - Oregon St (TJ after winning the CWS as a Frosh, FB has played down, but I like his secondary's, think there is more velo to come, and I think he's an underslot guy. Once referred to him incorrectly as Mick's older brother) Gordon Graceffo - Villanova (I recently saw him during a Cape League start and he impressed me, changeup has potential to be one of the best in the draft)
There is also a pitcher form Navy, Charlie Connolly that is pretty highly regarded, and popped up to scouts when he faced off versus Black this spring. He's not quite as heralded as Song, but I'm all here for the Naval Academy pipeline.
Some England pitchers to keep an eye on: Mike Vasil- Virginia Emmett Sheehan - BC Steve Hajjar- Michigan Sean Burke - Maryland Ben Casparius- UCONN Nick Mondack- St John's Nick Sincola- Maine Tyler Mattison- Bryant Nick Dombrowski - Hartford
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 12, 2021 8:17:12 GMT -5
Kevin Goldstein will be live streaming a Day 2 chat on Twitch.
FanGraphs Live: Day 2 Draft Twitch Chat, 12:50 ET
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 12, 2021 8:34:14 GMT -5
Doubt it happens due to the that he wants a lot of money, but Jud Fabian is one of the players to keep an eye on. Boston was rumored to really like Jud when he was a projected top 5 pick. If they like him I say go get him and pay the price. Go for quality instead of quantity but it all depends on how much they like him of course. Are his odds of being a productive MLB player high enough to offset fewer swings at success with other guys? He was a consensus top 10 pick a year ago right, their has to be something to that scouting report.
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 12, 2021 8:36:50 GMT -5
Doubt it happens due to the that he wants a lot of money, but Jud Fabian is one of the players to keep an eye on. Boston was rumored to really like Jud when he was a projected top 5 pick. If they like him I say go get him and pay the price. Go for quality instead of quantity but it all depends on how much they like him of course. Are his odds of being a productive MLB player high enough to offset fewer swings at success with other guys? He was a consensus top 10 pick a year ago right, their has to be something to that scouting report. Agreed - there’s been discussion on how we’ve built out the depth of the system but could use some work at the top end - IMO Chaim put us in a great spot where we don’t lack depth so we can take big swings at the expense of quantity.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 12, 2021 8:39:30 GMT -5
Since the new CBA and draft slotting and whatnot are far from hammered out, is it worth it for some team to just go nuts THIS YEAR and buy out everyone they want? (I know we had LOOOOONG discussions about the value in the past, but the fact that there might be "no tomorrow" on draft penalties changes the calculus a little). If the Sox were the ones to do it, I'm sure the rest of the owners would make sure they paid the price in the next CBA, but a team that flies under the radar a little more could try it.
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Post by rasimon on Jul 12, 2021 8:41:58 GMT -5
Jaden Hill
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Post by tyler3 on Jul 12, 2021 8:42:28 GMT -5
Sorry guys, posted this on day 1 draft, things moving too quickly for me. Anyway:
This is odd…so unbelievably happy about the Mayer pick….completely content with whoever Bloom gets at 40. Having said that…now going to list some favorites.
Solometo: lefty HS arm. Will Taylor: worked out for Red Sox Josh Baez: local kid, stupid power, huge arm and surprisingly fast Gage Jump: described as a left handed Jack Leiter (short, fastball hitters just don’t see)
If we need to save a little after snagging Mayer
Mikulski: lefty senior sign Aaron Zavala: data darling, exit velocity, average, power, plate discipline. History of playing third but would really have to work to stay there.
Anyway guys this has been fun, what a great result yesterday. Here’s to today but for me we’re playing with the house’s money at this point.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2021 8:44:24 GMT -5
I don’t really believe Fabian would go back to school, because if he doesn’t cut his Ks down dramatically, he’d fall even lower next year as a graduating senior with no leverage. That being said, who knows if they’re even interested at all. He has to be polarizing after posting a 28%+ K rate this year.
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brendan98
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 12, 2021 8:48:27 GMT -5
Yes. There was a time not so long ago where I preferred Hill to Leiter or Rocker. Would LOVE picking Baez in the 2nd round as well.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 12, 2021 8:52:07 GMT -5
I'm definitely on board. Obviously at this point everyone has wider flaws (too expensive, one tool too few, reliever risk, or in this case a little older so less projection) but Mikulski seems like a great combo of the things the Sox should want. Pitcher with path to starter-dom, likely signable. I think a lot of the other names aren't gonna work.
I don't think Mayer gets $8M, but $7.5M seems like a ceiling. It's halfway between #2 and #3 and is the 2nd highest price for a non #1 overall since 2017 (after Bobby Witt at $7.8M). Otherwise picks 2-5 have peaked at $7-$7.25M in that time, so Mayer might come out a little lower than $7.5M, especially since he wasn't really a consensus #1.
At $7.5M, that eats all of the $567k overage on +5%, and then needs $286k more. If they "buy" all of that back with pick 2, that means paying slot value for pick 47 ($1.58M) at pick 40 ($1.86M slot). Not a huge drop. Then you use slot for a while and use senior signs to get leeway in the later rounds.
I wonder if the Sox have any outstanding promises that would eat into that and require steeper cuts.
(cross posted this from the Day 1 thread since it belongs here)
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 12, 2021 8:59:07 GMT -5
I think the Sox go Pitcher. Not sure who, but I can't see them going OF or SS (maybe C).
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 12, 2021 9:05:38 GMT -5
I think the Sox go Pitcher. Not sure who, but I can't see them going OF or SS (maybe C). I don't think they care @ 40, but once they're picking guys ranked in the 100's, it's gonna be tough to find at bats for them in the low minors if they're an OF or SS.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 12, 2021 9:09:38 GMT -5
I think the Sox go Pitcher. Not sure who, but I can't see them going OF or SS (maybe C). I don't think they care @ 40, but once they're picking guys ranked in the 100's, it's gonna be tough to find at bats for them in the low minors if they're an OF or SS. Honestly, I'd draft 19 straight pitchers and figure 0-1 will be elite 0-3 will be good 2-5 will be average and the rest will never see the Show. I like my odds.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 12, 2021 9:15:46 GMT -5
If they take Hill then Mayer is signing for slot.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2021 9:21:23 GMT -5
So beautiful that we got Mayer. Unreal. There’s virtually no way I’ll be disappointed in our draft regardless of what happens today. I’m on cloud nine still.
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Post by soxaddict on Jul 12, 2021 9:25:07 GMT -5
RHP, Richard Fitts (Auburn)
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 12, 2021 9:27:19 GMT -5
I’m feeling lucky today. We’ll get Joshua Baez.
More likely though the Red Sox will deep dive into the pitching ranks now.
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Post by borisman on Jul 12, 2021 9:34:00 GMT -5
Tommy Mace could be a pick. I don't know about his bonus demands but they were pretty high last year. He didn't pitch all that great and he just needs to be more consistent. He was hit pretty hard at times but also had some dominant outings. He may have grown since last year so he may still be getting comfortable with his coordination. Sounds stupid, I know. But he should be considered.
Edit: other than that, sign me for either Matt Mikulsi or Andrew Abbott.
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Post by jchang on Jul 12, 2021 9:43:18 GMT -5
I don't think they care @ 40, but once they're picking guys ranked in the 100's, it's gonna be tough to find at bats for them in the low minors if they're an OF or SS. Honestly, I'd draft 19 straight pitchers and figure 0-1 will be elite 0-3 will be good 2-5 will be average and the rest will never see the Show. I like my odds. Lets say there are 8 elite caliber pitchers in the MLB, including pitchers who were once elite and now just all-star. Lets also say the elite pitcher has a career of 16 years (much higher than average player career length). Then an elite pitcher comes every 2 years. Lets say that 2 out 3 elite pitchers are drafted very high in the first round (this should not be difficult to check). this means the probability of finding an elite pitcher outside of the top few picks is 1 out of 6 per year over 30 teams (3 new elite pitchers over 6 years, 2 are high picks, 1 outside of top few) - so the probability of a single team finding an elite pitcher outside of the top few pick is 1 /180 (not that I a trying to discourage people from dreaming) We could say there 60 good pitchers in the MLB (average of 2 per team) but I would prefer to say 90 (3 per team on average) and that the average career length of a good starting pitcher is 10 years. There should be 9 new good pitchers per year (through both draft and international). Lets say half of these are in the first round. If so, that leaves 4.5 per year in round 2 or later. So the probability of one team finding a good pitcher in rounds 2 and higher is 0.15? If there are 60 or so backend starting pitchers, and average career is 5 years, then there needs to be 12 new blood per year
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 12, 2021 9:47:17 GMT -5
RHP, Richard Fitts (Auburn) He came into the year highly rated, in the top 20 on BAs overall board. Really struggled to locate this spring, Frelick homered off him twice when BC played them, and he never got his footing after that. pitched out of the pen, then back to the rotation towards the end of the year where he had 2 good starts, and one where he didn't get out of the 2nd inning. He made a couple appearances for Wareham this summer, 1 not so good, and one pretty good. His slider has a chance to be one of the better one's in the draft, and I'd be all for a later round pick today on him.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2021 9:51:15 GMT -5
Binelas is definitely a flight risk with his Ks, but his numbers were really solid despite being held down by an anomalous BABIP. I think he or Zavala would be solid picks.
Then again if you can wait another round or two for Kavadas it might make more sense to grab an arm.
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Post by unitspin on Jul 12, 2021 10:00:02 GMT -5
Doubt it happens due to the that he wants a lot of money, but Jud Fabian is one of the players to keep an eye on. Boston was rumored to really like Jud when he was a projected top 5 pick. I bet if we threw 2.5-3 mil at him it would be hard to turn down. Blow through the draft capital for the top two guys lets go big.
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