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Red Sox Acquire Hansel Robles for Alex Scherff
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 30, 2021 16:40:54 GMT -5
How do they get him on the 40-man roster, especially when they have to clear spaces for Sale and Brasier?
Having dealt Chavis, I'd be surprised if they DFA'd Santana from the IL. They didn't add any position-player depth (+ KS, - Chavis).
They can probably pass Rosario through waivers, and they can put Mata on the 60-day list, and that covers Sale and Brasier. But it looks like they'd have to also lose Potts on waivers to make room for Robles.
The only thing that makes sense is if they can DFA him and keep him in the organization ... if he clears waivers, he can declare free agency and they should be able to re-sign him. You'd have to be sure you could do that, though, right?
The weirdest thing? Robles has a 0.77 WPA despite a .351 twOBA. Based on WPA, he'd step in and be our 5th best reliever! Seriously? Another game log I have to scrutinize ...
Andriese? To the 60-day IL. That does it. Great catch. He can go on rehab and stay there until the season ends ... and be insurance against losing a pitcher for the rest of the year.
I'm still dubious about optioning Darwinzon to make room for him, which is the likely move if everyone is healthy. It's a depth move. so dumping Rios (who is good) means you traded Sherff and Rios for two months of Robles, who at best is a bit better.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 30, 2021 16:49:33 GMT -5
To the 60-day IL. That does it. Great catch. He can go on rehab and stay there until the season ends ... and be insurance against losing a pitcher for the rest of the year.
I'm still dubious about optioning Darwinzon to make room for him, which is the likely move if everyone is healthy. It's a depth move. so dumping Rios (who is good) means you traded Sherff and Rios for two months of Robles, who at best is a bit better.
Yeah the 60-day is what I had in mind. I think this depends a little on Sawamura's timing though. If he's going to take until mid-August, and maybe the extend his rehab as long as possible, then worst case they can keep Rios and have Darwinzon down for ~2 weeks, and that's assuming no one else needs a DL stint between mid-August and Sep 1. If they see something correctable in Robles I think it's worth that two week window to give it a shot.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 30, 2021 16:51:51 GMT -5
To the 60-day IL. That does it. Great catch. He can go on rehab and stay there until the season ends ... and be insurance against losing a pitcher for the rest of the year.
I'm still dubious about optioning Darwinzon to make room for him, which is the likely move if everyone is healthy. It's a depth move. so dumping Rios (who is good) means you traded Sherff and Rios for two months of Robles, who at best is a bit better.
Do we actually care about keeping Andriese?
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Post by marshaevelyn on Jul 30, 2021 17:03:44 GMT -5
Can't help thinking of a Bugs Bunny cartoon. "Hansel, Hansel?"
The comparisons to the exit of Chavis to Middlebrooks from Lansdowne St. hit a tender spot. Will Middlebrooks drove in the only two, but winning, runs in the last game I saw in Fenway where the Red Sox won in September 2013 Lester beat Scherzer 2-1.
I was also a bit surprised that Dalbec is not flying off to a new destination, although I like him, I got a feeling management wasn't thrilled with his drop off from 2020. I suppose if anyone can manage this odd mixture of errors waiting to happen, still too many base running blunders with 3 Danny Darwins in the rotation (soon to be 2) it is AC. Possibly the best part of the team lies in the coaching staff.
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Post by jmei on Jul 30, 2021 17:07:20 GMT -5
To the 60-day IL. That does it. Great catch. He can go on rehab and stay there until the season ends ... and be insurance against losing a pitcher for the rest of the year.
I'm still dubious about optioning Darwinzon to make room for him, which is the likely move if everyone is healthy. It's a depth move. so dumping Rios (who is good) means you traded Sherff and Rios for two months of Robles, who at best is a bit better.
Do we actually care about keeping Andriese? Andriese is at least as interesting as any of the two guys picked up today.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 30, 2021 17:22:49 GMT -5
In a nutshell, Harper's Index style!
402nd out of 479: Rank of Hansel "is as Hansel does" Robles in xERA / xwOBA among big league pitchers (minimum 100 balls in play)
2.1: number of relievers that the average MLB team has that have been more valuable than Robles (based on Win Probability Added)
Seriously. He ranks 63rd in WPA. He's getting 75th percentile value from 15th percentile overall results.
I'm going to create a graph of his twOBA as a function of his Leverage Index when entering a game. Should be entertaining.
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 30, 2021 17:30:30 GMT -5
In a nutshell, Harper's Index style!
402nd out of 479: Rank of Hansel "is as Hansel does" Robles in xERA / xwOBA among big league pitchers (minimum 100 balls in play)
2.1: number of relievers that the average MLB team has that have been more valuable than Robles (based on Win Probability Added)
Seriously. He ranks 63rd in WPA. He's getting 75th percentile value from 15th percentile overall results.
I'm going to create a graph of his twOBA as a function of his Leverage Index when entering a game. Should be entertaining.
I’m an idiot but what’s the takeaway from this? That he sucks in low leverage?
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 30, 2021 17:31:07 GMT -5
They dfa Marcus Wilson
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 30, 2021 17:46:01 GMT -5
How do they get him on the 40-man roster, especially when they have to clear spaces for Sale and Brasier? Having dealt Chavis, I'd be surprised if they DFA'd Santana from the IL. They didn't add any position-player depth (+ KS, - Chavis). They can probably pass Rosario through waivers, and they can put Mata on the 60-day list, and that covers Sale and Brasier. But it looks like they'd have to also lose Potts on waivers to make room for Robles. Furthermore, to get both Sale and Robles on the active roster, they have to [Edit:] option either Sawamura or Darwinzon, or DFA Rios, who they clearly like and who has been better than MLB average since his first 3 outings for us. No way Rios clears waivers. So it doesn't look like an upgrade.
The only thing that makes sense is if they can DFA him and keep him in the organization ... if he clears waivers, he can declare free agency and they should be able to re-sign him. You'd have to be sure you could do that, though, right?
The weirdest thing? Robles has a 0.77 WPA despite a .351 twOBA. Based on WPA, he'd step in and be our 5th best reliever! Seriously? Another game log I have to scrutinize ...
Might be time to wonder if anyone would claim Groome 5y past his draft date and on his 2nd option year if remember correctly. Not enthralled by what have seen in handful of games by Portland's Hernandez either. Reason believe TB gave him away so cheap this past offseason. Agree on Rosario. he reminds me of a poor man's Lin that was in the system.. What? 10y ago? Except has neither the glove, nor speed he had and Lin only ended up with a few games at the show. Potts also might pass with his poor showing this year and injuries.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 30, 2021 18:41:29 GMT -5
How do they get him on the 40-man roster, especially when they have to clear spaces for Sale and Brasier? Having dealt Chavis, I'd be surprised if they DFA'd Santana from the IL. They didn't add any position-player depth (+ KS, - Chavis). They can probably pass Rosario through waivers, and they can put Mata on the 60-day list, and that covers Sale and Brasier. But it looks like they'd have to also lose Potts on waivers to make room for Robles. Furthermore, to get both Sale and Robles on the active roster, they have to [Edit:] option either Sawamura or Darwinzon, or DFA Rios, who they clearly like and who has been better than MLB average since his first 3 outings for us. No way Rios clears waivers. So it doesn't look like an upgrade.
The only thing that makes sense is if they can DFA him and keep him in the organization ... if he clears waivers, he can declare free agency and they should be able to re-sign him. You'd have to be sure you could do that, though, right?
The weirdest thing? Robles has a 0.77 WPA despite a .351 twOBA. Based on WPA, he'd step in and be our 5th best reliever! Seriously? Another game log I have to scrutinize ...
Might be time to wonder if anyone would claim Groome 5y past his draft date and on his 2nd option year if remember correctly. Not enthralled by what have seen in handful of games by Portland's Hernandez either. Reason believe TB gave him away so cheap this past offseason. Agree on Rosario. he reminds me of a poor man's Lin that was in the system.. What? 10y ago? Except has neither the glove, nor speed he had and Lin only ended up with a few games at the show. Potts also might pass with his poor showing this year and injuries. Groome is one of the last people at the tail end of the 40 I'd try and sneak through waivers. His section on the website says he's had 0 options used as well.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 30, 2021 18:44:20 GMT -5
Might be time to wonder if anyone would claim Groome 5y past his draft date and on his 2nd option year if remember correctly. Not enthralled by what have seen in handful of games by Portland's Hernandez either. Reason believe TB gave him away so cheap this past offseason. Agree on Rosario. he reminds me of a poor man's Lin that was in the system.. What? 10y ago? Except has neither the glove, nor speed he had and Lin only ended up with a few games at the show. Potts also might pass with his poor showing this year and injuries. Groome is one of the last people at the tail end of the 40 I'd try and sneak through waivers. His section on the website says he's had 0 options used as well. There is zero chance Groome makes it through wavers. ZERO!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 30, 2021 19:03:54 GMT -5
meh. ...and..zzzz. not impressed.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,092
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Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2021 20:13:16 GMT -5
Do we actually care about keeping Andriese? Andriese is at least as interesting as any of the two guys picked up today. Is he though? He’s not a big lefty with a solid fastball and he has never had a year like Robles has had He did help Whitlock with the change and gave us April. We will always have April
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2021 16:54:12 GMT -5
In a nutshell, Harper's Index style!
402nd out of 479: Rank of Hansel "is as Hansel does" Robles in xERA / xwOBA among big league pitchers (minimum 100 balls in play)
2.1: number of relievers that the average MLB team has that have been more valuable than Robles (based on Win Probability Added)
Seriously. He ranks 63rd in WPA. He's getting 75th percentile value from 15th percentile overall results.
I'm going to create a graph of his twOBA as a function of his Leverage Index when entering a game. Should be entertaining.
I’m an idiot but what’s the takeaway from this? That he sucks in low leverage? That may be part of it. And of course, if you only suck in low leverage, that may be a shortage of adrenaline thing -- a lot of closers have that.
But there are other reasons this you might have a much better Win Probability Added than overall numbers. I just looked into one I've always wanted to explore, what I just named the LIME effect, the Late Inning Margin of Error effect.
In a nutshell: if you come in with a 3 run lead in the bottom of the 6th and give up 2 runs, that's obviously bad, and in fact your WPA is -0.14, which is pretty large.
However, if you do that in the 9th inning, you get +.05! And another save for a potential HOF resume.
It turns out that giving up a single run in the 8th can actually net you a positive WPA. Top or bottom, 2 run lead, 1 run allowed, it's about +.005. Do that in the bottom of the sixth and it's -0.04.
So I looked at Barnes, Ottavino, and Robles, in clean single innings only, with a 1 to 3 run lead, and excluding extra innings. I measured the WPA gained by giving up a run or two but not the lead in the inning it happened, as opposed to the bottom of the 6th.
Barnes has 2 games totaling 0.14, Ottavino 3 games for 0.27, and Robles 3 games for 0.29. So no unusual benefit there.
Now, as I mentioned earlier in the trade thread, Robles was really pretty good through June 20 and then fell and could not get up.
As usual, expected line and then actual.
.218 / .330 / .370 = .315 xwOBA (133 PA) That's league average.
.184 / .301 / .307 = .278 wOBA. That's a .308 true wOBA allowed, or maybe lower.
After June 20:
.325 / .414 / .653 = .452 .348 / .434 / .696 = .473. A .456 true.
A lot of what we're looking it two things.
First, his last outing blew up his season Statcast numbers, adding .015 / .016 to his wOBA / xwOBA. He gave up 4 runs while getting 2 outs ... with a 4 run lead. So it hammered his WPA as well.
And he did not pitch well in 2 of his most valuable outings. On June 5 he closed out a 1-run game in KC: 103.9 mph 2B (.620 xBA); groundout that got the tying run to third; 100.9 LDP (.550 xBA). On May 22 he walked 2 batters sandwiched around a barelled double, with the game tied, but pitched out of the jam.
But I can't find any general trend of pitching better in lower leverage; in fact, the opposite is true. Through June 20 there was a tendency (p = .10) for higher-lev outings to have a worse wOBA! In his bad stretch, it's xwOBA that has the same trend, except for the huge outlier in his last game, lowest leverage of the season and worst Statcast results.
Finally, in the the bad stretch he was merely bad when pitching with rest (.395 expected, .386 actual), but was destroyed on 0 days rest. Before the last outing, he had 11 apperances and 2 of the worst 4 were on no rest. And then he had that nightmare. .717 wOBA, .633 xwOBA in the three outings.
The idea here is to get another guy they can trust in the 6th and 7th, since Houck will be starting. I like the odds.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2021 23:10:52 GMT -5
I don't get it. He's not good and he doesn't have options, so he's not a guy who provides roster flexibility. I don't even think he's an upgrade over Workman. I guess Andriese/Bazardo/Sawamura/Brasier are all hurt, so if a guy goes down, they don't have depth. But Brasier and Sawamura should be back soon, and if they need an emergency guy, I would frankly rather they call up Brennan/Ort/Walden. Or maybe, you know, don't DFA Workman. Only two explanations I can see: 1) Sox saw something in him and think they can fix him 2) John Henry was leaning on Bloom to pick up a pitcher for optics' sake, so he just picked up a random guy Or, 3) Chaim sold Scherff to the Twins for cash to stay under the tax line... Has anyone heard exactly how much cash was involved?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2021 23:15:26 GMT -5
Might be time to wonder if anyone would claim Groome 5y past his draft date and on his 2nd option year if remember correctly. Not enthralled by what have seen in handful of games by Portland's Hernandez either. Reason believe TB gave him away so cheap this past offseason. Agree on Rosario. he reminds me of a poor man's Lin that was in the system.. What? 10y ago? Except has neither the glove, nor speed he had and Lin only ended up with a few games at the show. Potts also might pass with his poor showing this year and injuries. Groome is one of the last people at the tail end of the 40 I'd try and sneak through waivers. His section on the website says he's had 0 options used as well. I think he used his first option this year. Was added to the 40 last year, so had to use one this year. btw, he would def be claimed by someone. EDIT: I'll eat my laptop if Groome gets DFAed this year...
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
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Post by radiohix on Aug 1, 2021 0:42:44 GMT -5
I don't get it. He's not good and he doesn't have options, so he's not a guy who provides roster flexibility. I don't even think he's an upgrade over Workman. I guess Andriese/Bazardo/Sawamura/Brasier are all hurt, so if a guy goes down, they don't have depth. But Brasier and Sawamura should be back soon, and if they need an emergency guy, I would frankly rather they call up Brennan/Ort/Walden. Or maybe, you know, don't DFA Workman. Only two explanations I can see: 1) Sox saw something in him and think they can fix him 2) John Henry was leaning on Bloom to pick up a pitcher for optics' sake, so he just picked up a random guy Or, 3) Chaim sold Scherff to the Twins for cash to stay under the tax line... Has anyone heard exactly how much cash was involved?
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Post by orion09 on Aug 1, 2021 18:05:05 GMT -5
So, interesting piece of analytics. Prep Baseball Report has developed a proprietary metric called "hop score." It's basically an advanced fastball movement metric. It incorporates vertical movement along with vertical approach angle (eg flatness) to measure the "hop" of a fastball. There's a strong correlation between hop score and whiff rate, so it seems like they're onto something. www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/Hop-Score-0689374512The leaderboards are pretty impressive. deGrom, Kimbrel, Scherzer, Hader, Kluber, Bauer, etc etc. Also, some dude named Hansel Robles. If they can get him back to 2017 form, maybe they've found something.
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