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Red Sox claim Travis Shaw off waivers
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 16, 2021 9:00:50 GMT -5
But where is Kyle Schwarber going to play if Shaw is at first base? Have they already given up pn the Schwarber to first idea? If so he has to go to Left ) or to DH with Martinez to DH) and that pushes Verogo to center and Duran to the bench. Is Shaw better than Duran? Or am I missing something? Schwarber will still get some action at first maybe a little less now. From what I read it sounded like they wanted to be flexible with Schwarber, giving him time at first, DH and in left. And then Shaw fell into their lap. They have been throwing spaghetti at the 1B wall all season (Cordero, Arroyo, Schwarber, heck they even try Fitzgerald), Shaw is just another one...let's see if he sticks...
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,020
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Post by cdj on Aug 16, 2021 9:16:33 GMT -5
I think Schwarber still plays some 1B, I just see him DH’ing for a little bit to give his legs some more time to rest up
Shaw seems like a guy they’d be able to DFA and get through waivers for depth when the time comes. I don’t see him being on a playoff roster or anything
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Post by fenwaymabe on Aug 16, 2021 9:23:00 GMT -5
Whatever happens, just don't mess up this roll Bobby D has been on.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2021 9:38:41 GMT -5
Some stats on a possible Dalbec/Shaw platoon By now Dalbec is up to a respectable .309 wOBA .443 SLG His expected stats are even a tad higher .318 xwOBA .467 xSLG Sadly there is no expected data on splits, so: vs R .355 wOBA 69 wRC+ (not nice)vs L .276 wOBA 123 wRC+ Based on expected stats Shaw's OPS should be ~100 points higher than it is .274 wOBA .337 SLG .314 xwOBA .401 xSLG
Shaw's career splits vs R .336 wOBA 107 wRC+ vs L .292 wOBA 78 wRC+
If Shaw can get anywhere near his career stats vs righties (which he hasn't done this season) we could have a decent platoon 1B.
Definitively worth a shot considering he didn't cost anything and just fell into our lap. All well and good, but here's Shaw over the past three seasons against righties: 2019: 219 PA, .278 wOBA, 68 wRC+ 2020: 134 PA, .307 wOBA, 90 wRC+ 2021: 155 PA, .277 wOBA, 71 wRC+
And here's Dalbec against righties: 2020: 64 PAs, .386 wOBA, 143 wRC+ 2021: 193 PAs, .275 wOBA, 68 wRC+ since May 1: 144 PAs, .314 wOBA, 95 wRC+ since June 1: 96 PAs, .340 wOBA, 113 wRC+
Looking at these numbers, and bearing in mind that Shaw is 31 and Dalbec is 26, not only do I think Shaw would probably not be an improvement over Dalbec against righties, I think it would be a little crazy to expect him to be. (Unless the xwOBA or whatever equivalent data the team has tells a radically different story, which I suppose is possible.)
And I'm concerned about the opportunity cost of rolling him out there. This team has racked up about -2 WAR waiting to see if Franchy, Santana, Marwin, and Chavis could figure it out...
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 16, 2021 10:02:30 GMT -5
Shaw and Dalbec have pretty much the same wOBA projections. Shaw has normal splits for his career. Dalbec doesn't have enough plate appearance for me to care about his career splits. I'd give Shaw about a 13 point wOBA edge on Dalbec vs righties based on typical batting splits.
Looks to me like there's probably a large gap between the two in the field at first, too.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2021 10:38:24 GMT -5
Shaw and Dalbec have pretty much the same wOBA projections. Shaw has normal splits for his career. Dalbec doesn't have enough plate appearance for me to care about his career splits. I'd give Shaw about a 13 point wOBA edge on Dalbec vs righties based on typical batting splits. Looks to me like there's probably a large gap between the two in the field at first, too. Yeah, I guess that's fair. It turns a bit on what you think of Shaw's wOBA/xwOBA divergence since 2019 - if you discount it entirely then you can see Shaw projecting about as well as Dalbec overall (with the advantage against righties). But if he's systematically underperforming his xwOBA for whatever reason then we could just have another Marwin on our hands.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 16, 2021 14:20:48 GMT -5
Does this affect the CBT? Weren’t we barely under it?
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 16, 2021 14:25:35 GMT -5
Red Sox Payroll on Twitter says it adds $475k.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 16, 2021 15:30:24 GMT -5
Red Sox Payroll on Twitter says it adds $475k. Okay, so if he contributes 0.1 WAR, he'll almost double their ROI.
EDIT: He could reach that simply by fielding 1B cleanly and keeping Bobby's mitt in the dugout...
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2021 15:35:34 GMT -5
Some stats on a possible Dalbec/Shaw platoon By now Dalbec is up to a respectable .309 wOBA .443 SLG His expected stats are even a tad higher .318 xwOBA .467 xSLG Sadly there is no expected data on splits, so: vs R .355 wOBA 69 wRC+ (not nice)vs L .276 wOBA 123 wRC+ Based on expected stats Shaw's OPS should be ~100 points higher than it is .274 wOBA .337 SLG .314 xwOBA .401 xSLG
Shaw's career splits vs R .336 wOBA 107 wRC+ vs L .292 wOBA 78 wRC+
If Shaw can get anywhere near his career stats vs righties (which he hasn't done this season) we could have a decent platoon 1B.
Definitively worth a shot considering he didn't cost anything and just fell into our lap. All well and good, but here's Shaw over the past three seasons against righties: 2019: 219 PA, .278 wOBA, 68 wRC+ 2020: 134 PA, .307 wOBA, 90 wRC+ 2021: 155 PA, .277 wOBA, 71 wRC+
And here's Dalbec against righties: 2020: 64 PAs, .386 wOBA, 143 wRC+ 2021: 193 PAs, .275 wOBA, 68 wRC+ since May 1: 144 PAs, .314 wOBA, 95 wRC+ since June 1: 96 PAs, .340 wOBA, 113 wRC+
Looking at these numbers, and bearing in mind that Shaw is 31 and Dalbec is 26, not only do I think Shaw would probably not be an improvement over Dalbec against righties, I think it would be a little crazy to expect him to be. (Unless the xwOBA or whatever equivalent data the team has tells a radically different story, which I suppose is possible.)
And I'm concerned about the opportunity cost of rolling him out there. This team has racked up about -2 WAR waiting to see if Franchy, Santana, Marwin, and Chavis could figure it out...
So what you're saying is that Shaw should be better than Marwin Gonzalez and Cordero as a 1B/LHB off the bench?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 16, 2021 15:48:00 GMT -5
Is Travis Shaw this year's version of Doug Mihffdghkjdeknxrgvzjzhkvstubxdvch?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2021 16:06:57 GMT -5
All well and good, but here's Shaw over the past three seasons against righties: 2019: 219 PA, .278 wOBA, 68 wRC+ 2020: 134 PA, .307 wOBA, 90 wRC+ 2021: 155 PA, .277 wOBA, 71 wRC+
And here's Dalbec against righties: 2020: 64 PAs, .386 wOBA, 143 wRC+ 2021: 193 PAs, .275 wOBA, 68 wRC+ since May 1: 144 PAs, .314 wOBA, 95 wRC+ since June 1: 96 PAs, .340 wOBA, 113 wRC+
Looking at these numbers, and bearing in mind that Shaw is 31 and Dalbec is 26, not only do I think Shaw would probably not be an improvement over Dalbec against righties, I think it would be a little crazy to expect him to be. (Unless the xwOBA or whatever equivalent data the team has tells a radically different story, which I suppose is possible.)
And I'm concerned about the opportunity cost of rolling him out there. This team has racked up about -2 WAR waiting to see if Franchy, Santana, Marwin, and Chavis could figure it out...
So what you're saying is that Shaw should be better than Marwin Gonzalez and Cordero as a 1B/LHB off the bench? Sure, but also worse than Dalbec. But on that point I think julianmorley's comment was pretty (though not thoroughly) persuasive.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 16, 2021 16:15:10 GMT -5
Is Travis Shaw this year's version of Doug Mihffdghkjdeknxrgvzjzhkvstubxdvch? He's at least this year's Dave Stapleton...
EDIT - Fun fact that I did not remember: Dave Stapleton came in 2nd in ROY voting in 1980.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2021 16:18:50 GMT -5
So what you're saying is that Shaw should be better than Marwin Gonzalez and Cordero as a 1B/LHB off the bench? Sure, but also worse than Dalbec. But on that point I think julianmorley's comment was pretty (though not thoroughly) persuasive. I have just as much patience as the Red Sox when it comes to Dalbec. Though I know that the postseason is not usually a great time for big k rates. Somehow the Yankees never figured that out. In any event, a LH bat on the bench that can actually hit RHP is something they could use, especially for the playoffs. Position isn't entirely that important because they have so many options that can play anywhere.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2021 16:33:30 GMT -5
What is so strange is that I view Shaw as a 1B since that is what he was mainly as a Red Sox prospect. Since he was traded to Milwaukee prior to 2017, he has had a grand total of 52 fielding chances at 1B in 5 seasons, and only 127 in his entire career or 37 fewer than Dalbec has had this season.
Basically, he barely has more major league playing time at 1B than Kyle Schwarber.
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Post by patford on Aug 16, 2021 16:42:57 GMT -5
My theory is the Sox signed Shaw because if the Yankees signed him he would mysteriously begin drawing tons of walks, bat .270 and hit 12 HR from here to the end of the year.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Aug 16, 2021 17:26:08 GMT -5
My theory is the Sox signed Shaw because if the Yankees signed him he would mysteriously begin drawing tons of walks, bat .270 and hit 12 HR from here to the end of the year. And then trade him for prospects while the other team takes on his salary.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Aug 16, 2021 18:41:35 GMT -5
Is Travis Shaw this year's version of Doug Mihffdghkjdeknxrgvzjzhkvstubxdvch? He's at least this year's Dave Stapleton...
EDIT - Fun fact that I did not remember: Dave Stapleton came in 2nd in ROY voting in 1980.
When I think of Shaw and want to be optimistic I think about what Derek Lowe as like during the season in 2004 (1.6WHIP) and what he was like in the postseason.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Aug 16, 2021 18:42:54 GMT -5
What is so strange is that I view Shaw as a 1B since that is what he was mainly as a Red Sox prospect. Since he was traded to Milwaukee prior to 2017, he has had a grand total of 52 fielding chances at 1B in 5 seasons, and only 127 in his entire career or 37 fewer than Dalbec has had this season. Basically, he barely has more major league playing time at 1B than Kyle Schwarber. He was mainly a 3b prospect, no? And the move from 3b to 1b is one of the easiest.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 16, 2021 20:43:33 GMT -5
The domino effect - hello Travis, welcome back Josh Taylor - see ya, Marwin, and back to the Woo, Franchie.
Addition by subtraction.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2021 21:29:12 GMT -5
What is so strange is that I view Shaw as a 1B since that is what he was mainly as a Red Sox prospect. Since he was traded to Milwaukee prior to 2017, he has had a grand total of 52 fielding chances at 1B in 5 seasons, and only 127 in his entire career or 37 fewer than Dalbec has had this season. Basically, he barely has more major league playing time at 1B than Kyle Schwarber. He was mainly a 3b prospect, no? And the move from 3b to 1b is one of the easiest. I know, it's just strange. He played mostly 1B in the minors for us, but did play both. Then he barely played any 1B in the majors. You don't usually see that happen.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 16, 2021 21:29:59 GMT -5
What is so strange is that I view Shaw as a 1B since that is what he was mainly as a Red Sox prospect. Since he was traded to Milwaukee prior to 2017, he has had a grand total of 52 fielding chances at 1B in 5 seasons, and only 127 in his entire career or 37 fewer than Dalbec has had this season. Basically, he barely has more major league playing time at 1B than Kyle Schwarber. Not sure where you got all those numbers.
According to Baseball-Reference, Shaw has played 163 games at 1B in the majors, with 900 chances and a .996 fielding % (obviously not the best defensive metric but for a 1B, it's mostly "did you catch the ball or not?"). In the last 5 seasons, I count 205.2 innings at 1B. It's not a ton but I think he'll remember what to do. He can also play 2B and 3B.
The bottom line is that he's a veteran who's played in the post-season in four different years for three different teams (and logged a .828 OPS in mostly platoon/spot duty). He's got 111 career dongs and his career BB rate is over 10%. He's not going to give away ABs (like Franchy) or be completely overmatched (like Marwin). He won't make a playoff roster without going on a complete tear but he's a guy you shouldn't have to wonder about. And he cost almost nothing, so if he stinks, you cut him knowing that Franchy or Marwin wouldn't have done any better.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2021 21:36:46 GMT -5
What is so strange is that I view Shaw as a 1B since that is what he was mainly as a Red Sox prospect. Since he was traded to Milwaukee prior to 2017, he has had a grand total of 52 fielding chances at 1B in 5 seasons, and only 127 in his entire career or 37 fewer than Dalbec has had this season. Basically, he barely has more major league playing time at 1B than Kyle Schwarber. Not sure where you got all those numbers.
According to Baseball-Reference, Shaw has played 163 games at 1B in the majors, with 900 chances and a .996 fielding % (obviously not the best defensive metric but for a 1B, it's mostly "did you catch the ball or not?"). In the last 5 seasons, I count 205.2 innings at 1B. It's not a ton but I think he'll remember what to do. He can also play 2B and 3B.
The bottom line is that he's a veteran who's played in the post-season in four different years for three different teams (and logged a .828 OPS in mostly platoon/spot duty). He's got 111 career dongs and his career BB rate is over 10%. He's not going to give away ABs (like Franchy) or be completely overmatched (like Marwin). He won't make a playoff roster without going on a complete tear but he's a guy you shouldn't have to wonder about. And he cost almost nothing, so if he stinks, you cut him knowing that Franchy or Marwin wouldn't have done any better.
Ah well, I was looking at baseball savant which only goes back to 2016. Oops. But I am not making any kind of statement like he can't play 1B. It's just odd that he played only 495 innings at 1B in the last 6 seasons when he was primarily a 1B prospect. Most players do not go backwards on the defensive spectrum and play harder positions.
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Post by bcsox on Aug 16, 2021 22:16:11 GMT -5
To give Shaw the 1b starts against righties, essentially 5 days per week given his track record the last three years and his being injured for most of the last two months to me is insane. Maybe they don’t have anyone better but in a pennant race to go this high risk makes me queasy.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2021 22:20:59 GMT -5
To give Shaw the 1b starts against righties, essentially 5 days per week given his track record the last three years and his being injured for most of the last two months to me is insane. Maybe they don’t have anyone better but in a pennant race to go this high risk makes me queasy. He's as likely to get waived again tomorrow as that scenario happens. They do not need him. He's just a simple (likely) LH upgrade over the major disappointments of Marwin Gonzalez, Franchy Cordero and Danny Santana.
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