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Payroll Now and in the Future
Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2013 22:17:58 GMT -5
The Sox have a payroll at about 150 million right now. Only about 30 million is committed in 2015, mostly to Pedroia, Victorino, and Buchholz. It seems that influx of great young core players will be arriving within now and the next two or three years. Some of these are JBJ, XB, Barnes, Webster, RDLR, Brentz, and others. A lot of the current team will be free agents by then, including Lester, Ortiz, Lackey, and Dempster. I only see Lester as one that still may be here by then.
With all of these young core players arriving in the major-leagues relatively soon that do not require big salaries in the near future, is the front office still determined to keep the payroll high no matter what? Half the team by then won't be past their first year of arbitration, so it could be a very young and inexpensive team. Plus, almost all of the high money guys will be off the books by then.
I think that the Sox and a lot of us have learned that it doesn't work forking about BIG money to older players, so a youth movement seems more imminent. I think that building around the veteran core of Pedroia, Buchholz, and Victorino, and the young core of WMB, JBJ, XB, Barnes, Webster, RDLR, and Brentz could produce a great and contenting team, and at a modest payroll. I don't really see the need for a huge payroll if half your team is still on their rookie contract or are not past their first year of arbitration eligibility. And I don't think there will be any HUGE contracts at this time. So what do you think about the question mentioned above?
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Post by mainesox on Mar 30, 2013 1:37:20 GMT -5
I don't think it's so much a determination to keep a high payroll as it is a determination to compete (or to appear to be trying to compete), so I don't think they go out and spend money just for the sake of spending money; if they have a competitive team made up mostly of young, cost-controlled players I think you'll see the payroll drop (until they start handing out extensions).
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Post by bluechip on Mar 30, 2013 7:30:22 GMT -5
I don't think it's so much a determination to keep a high payroll as it is a determination to compete (or to appear to be trying to compete), so I don't think they go out and spend money just for the sake of spending money; if they have a competitive team made up mostly of young, cost-controlled players I think you'll see the payroll drop (until they start handing out extensions). I agree. I think the Red Sox will try to make moves to improve the team besides. They will likely bring in free agent starting pitching. They might trade for a player and sign him to an extension. Plus some of the young players will likely not reach their potential, and thus the young core will need to be supplemented by more costly alternatives. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2013 9:19:29 GMT -5
I agree. I think the Red Sox will try to make moves to improve the team besides. They will likely bring in free agent starting pitching. They might trade for a player and sign him to an extension. Plus some of the young players will likely not reach their potential, and thus the young core will need to be supplemented by more costly alternatives. While we are on the subject, what do you think the 2015 rotation be? I think that Lester will rebound and therefore still be here, so this is what I have; 1. Lester 2. Buchholz 3. Webster 4. Rubby De La Rosa 5. Barnes It is a little optimistic to think that Webster, RDLR, and Barnes will all live up to the hype, but I want to stay optimistic. We still have solid pitching prospects in Wright, Workman, and Couch. Britton can still overcome his latest DUI incident and Ranaudo can still rebound after last year. Plus, Doubront is still looming and has good stuff, he just needs better command. There are plenty of options in the farm system, but I agree- sometimes you need real consistency and you need to go and sign or trade for a starter. But let's see what our prospects do first before forking over big money to pitcher who may no be able to handle Boston... |
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3647
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Post by 3647 on Mar 30, 2013 11:13:45 GMT -5
As bluechip said, not all of the young players will reach their ceiling. I don't see our farm as deep, not at all.
So, how can the team use its recourses in this era of extensions?
This is wild, but financial flexibility can allow the team to absorb bad contract and receive good prospects alongside. This could be a way to go around the new draft rules which limit the draft spending. The Sox used to use their financial muscles in order to get talent in the latter rounds of the draft (Middlebrooks, JBJ, Westmoreland and so on) but this options is now blocked. Let's take it to the extreme: What will the Mets need to add for someone to trade for Johan Santana? If this is too extreme, think about Zito.
I know this is something that the traditional fan base wouldn't take, so the current ownership won't go for it. However, this could be an interesting way to bring talent to Boston. Nowadays, the top notch players just don't make it to free agency...
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 30, 2013 13:42:42 GMT -5
The best way for the Red Sox to acquire top talent is to develop it and draft better. If you look back at all the bonus babies aka guys that sign above slot I only can think of Middlebrooks who has worked out so far. Westmorland had a health related problem that prevented him from reaching his potential. Peter Hissey is a backup OF in the minor leagues. Lars Anderson looks like he flameout. Casey Kelly got us Adrian but looks to be headed for surgery. Rizzo is another guy that got above slot but not too high and looks like he'll be a very good player but is no longer in the organization. Blake Swihart, Ceccini, Buttrey, Jacobs, Ranaudo, Coyle are yet to be determine along with a host of others that escape my mind right now. JBJ was the 40th pick and signed for 1.1 which I believe falls within the rage of that slot if not below.
All this is to say that drafting and developing your own players can be done, the team just needs to do a better job drafting and developing. There were a couple of dry years that impacted some of it along with trades but it has showed up at the big league level. The international rules affect the Red Sox less than others because they really didn't participate in the top end market as other teams(Texas, NY) did so its still business as usual there.
Faulting not being able to spend freely would be just lazy. They have a great opportunity this year lets see if they take advantage and find a top end player.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 2, 2013 7:52:55 GMT -5
Saying the Red Sox need to 'draft and develop better' is like saying you need to pick better lottery tickets.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 2, 2013 12:23:06 GMT -5
I agree. I think the Red Sox will try to make moves to improve the team besides. They will likely bring in free agent starting pitching. They might trade for a player and sign him to an extension. Plus some of the young players will likely not reach their potential, and thus the young core will need to be supplemented by more costly alternatives. While we are on the subject, what do you think the 2015 rotation be? I think that Lester will rebound and therefore still be here, so this is what I have; 1. Lester 2. Buchholz 3. Webster 4. Rubby De La Rosa 5. Barnes It is a little optimistic to think that Webster, RDLR, and Barnes will all live up to the hype, but I want to stay optimistic. We still have solid pitching prospects in Wright, Workman, and Couch. Britton can still overcome his latest DUI incident and Ranaudo can still rebound after last year. Plus, Doubront is still looming and has good stuff, he just needs better command. There are plenty of options in the farm system, but I agree- sometimes you need real consistency and you need to go and sign or trade for a starter. But let's see what our prospects do first before forking over big money to pitcher who may no be able to handle Boston... My guess is Lester won't be around after 2014. He'll probably be looking to command $15 - $20 million/year. Don't know if the Sox want to travel down that road again with a pitcher in his 30s. I think the staff will comprise of Webster/Barnes/De La Rosa/Doubront/Buchholz with Wright still hanging around and Owens knocking on the door. Maybe Ranaudo is part of the picture? I think Workman, if not dealt, will be in the bullpen. Britton might be. Not sure I like the word "overcome" in describing his issues. "Overcome" conjures of MLK's famous speech. I can't use the word overcome when describing an immature guy's awful self inflicted decision that could have killed somebody, but fortunately didn't. Let's just hope Britton grows up and can be a decent lefty out of the pen. I think what the Sox might do as far as spending their money would be to tie up some of the kids to contracts that take them a year or two beyond their natural free agent season. Theo used to do that where he'd give a kid the kind of money that sets them and their family up for life if they give up a year or two of their free agency which makes perfect sense because usually a free agent is around age 29 or 30 and if they were to sign a big money deal would probably be effective for the first year or two and then decline. Theo was trying to tie up their late 20s/very early 30s as well. I think that kind of thing is usually a good investment. So I guess that would add some $10 million annual contracts to the Sox payroll. I can see the Sox approaching Middlebrooks in a couple of years. I can see Ben trying that with some of the prospects, although those represented by Boras probably wouldn't go for that. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 2, 2013 12:40:39 GMT -5
Saying the Red Sox need to 'draft and develop better' is like saying you need to pick better lottery tickets. Ha yes cause drafting and developing is a lottery. |
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 3, 2013 7:56:48 GMT -5
Saying the Red Sox need to 'draft and develop better' is like saying you need to pick better lottery tickets. Ha yes cause drafting and developing is a lottery. Exactly, that's why all the best players in the majors were drafted in the first few rounds, no one picked high flamed out in Single-A, and no one picked in late rounds ever makes the majors. Drafting is 100% a lottery, you just need to try to pick the player with the best odds of 'winning'. And as far as development, that depends more on the player than the team. You can throw coaches, former players, current players, gurus, etc at a player, but if he doesn't listen then that's the team's fault? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 3, 2013 8:19:40 GMT -5
Ha yes cause drafting and developing is a lottery. Exactly, that's why all the best players in the majors were drafted in the first few rounds, no one picked high flamed out in Single-A, and no one picked in late rounds ever makes the majors. Drafting is 100% a lottery, you just need to try to pick the player with the best odds of 'winning'. And as far as development, that depends more on the player than the team. You can throw coaches, former players, current players, gurus, etc at a player, but if he doesn't listen then that's the team's fault? My wife told me I should never use absolutes in our arguments. Like "always, never and 100%"...you may want to take that advice here. So basically, you feel the Sox should fire all their scouts and cross checkers and just randomly draft players off of what? The Baseball America top 500 list? |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 3, 2013 9:24:55 GMT -5
Verducci mentions in his article free agency is dead. Hard to argue against him. Seems that most players who get there have a red flag or two or three. Point 9. Definitely have to build thru your system. What if you don't have something you need? I don't see a 3-hole hitter on this team or horizon. High average with pop. WMB and Bogaerts profile more to 4-5 hitters. Serious pop. Don't see either threatening for a batting title. Hope we can get an of or 1b at 7 in this draft who fills that profile. Preferably, a lh bat. sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130402/opening-day-lessons/index.html Say, around the trade deadline. If we're having a successful season, over .500 and Lester/Buchholz looking good with Webster knocking on the door. Do we kick the tires on Joe Mauer? We know Jacoby isn't going to re-up during the season. Drew will be gone, maybe Napoli. Papi down to 1 year and we have our face of the franchise player. He has 5 years after this year at 23m per. I think he could catch for us this year and next year. Maybe, Vazquez ready by then. Move to 1b in 2015 thru 2018 to finish his contract. Could even dh. But, I think he can handle 1b. We don't really have a player at 1b either, or the 3-hole hitter. Could we kill 2 birds with one stone? I know he'd be overpaid. But, I think he'd hit .340 or better at Fenway. No character issues at all. In fact, Minny is headed for their 3rd straight dreadful season with not much hope for improvement. Saves them money and gets them some prospects. Chance to battle Houston and Miami as the worst team in baseball for a couple of years to get those top of the draft picks. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 3, 2013 9:54:14 GMT -5
Kinda being a hypocrite here... Just kidding.
I think one big advantage of a payroll surplus is it could allow our team to "create" value. From a baseball operations perspective (not an owners wallet perspective) it is the same to Ben if our team is 1 dollar under the luxury tax or 100M dollars under in any 1 given year. It is the advantage the top spending teams have. So when we give Victorino 13M a year, it is essentially the same as giving him a league minimum deal in that year, assuming we would not have spent that money elsewhere.
Victorino's market value was probably in the 8-10M per year range, and he probably won't live up to his 13M per year tag. But what would a team be willing to give up to get Victorino at a league minimum deal. If it is a team who is trying to contend in need of an outfielder and with some payroll restrictions it could be a good prospect, I am thinking someone would would rank somewhere on our list between 7-13. And if we don't spend that money elsewhere, it comes at no opportunity cost to us. Hopefully a prospect traded for turns into a cost controllable regular, which gives the team financial flexibility in the future.
Now the above example is extreme and unrealistic just to attempt to prove my point. But Victorino, Drew, Dempster could all have their salaries absorbed and be traded for a prospect that will hopefully help our team down the road.
He is the "sexy" player that will get fan interests.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Apr 3, 2013 10:21:33 GMT -5
A nice 3 hole hitter in our system for 2014 and beyond could be Jacoby. JBJ would be our leadoff hitter.
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Post by mainesox on Apr 3, 2013 10:32:15 GMT -5
Say, around the trade deadline. If we're having a successful season, over .500 and Lester/Buchholz looking good with Webster knocking on the door. Do we kick the tires on Joe Mauer? We know Jacoby isn't going to re-up during the season. Drew will be gone, maybe Napoli. Papi down to 1 year and we have our face of the franchise player. He has 5 years after this year at 23m per. I think he could catch for us this year and next year. Maybe, Vazquez ready by then. Move to 1b in 2015 thru 2018 to finish his contract. Could even dh. But, I think he can handle 1b. We don't really have a player at 1b either, or the 3-hole hitter. Could we kill 2 birds with one stone? I know he'd be overpaid. But, I think he'd hit .340 or better at Fenway. No character issues at all. In fact, Minny is headed for their 3rd straight dreadful season with not much hope for improvement. Saves them money and gets them some prospects. Chance to battle Houston and Miami as the worst team in baseball for a couple of years to get those top of the draft picks. I could see Mauer being a decent fit if the price is right (talent wise obviously, the price of his contract certainly isn't going to be right). His deal takes his through his age 35 season, and while his skill set is one that I think would age well, he has been a catcher for a long time, and already had leg issues. I also don't see him hitting .340 or better (not that he couldn't, that's just way too high for me to be comfortable actually projecting it). |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 3, 2013 11:25:25 GMT -5
A nice 3 hole hitter in our system for 2014 and beyond could be Jacoby. JBJ would be our leadoff hitter. Buster Olney was on the mid-day show on WEEI. Asked about Cano leaving Boras. Doesn't think Jacoby will because he's tight with Boras. Olney said he's not unhappy. But, will become a free-agent and there is little or no chance he re-signs with Sox. |
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Post by raftsox on Apr 3, 2013 11:51:26 GMT -5
You never put the toilet paper roll on the right way either, huh? |
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 3, 2013 17:37:35 GMT -5
It's too bad they are caught up in a big market. I believe they were afraid to fully commit this year. I mean Drew,Ortiz,Victorino,Dempster and to a lesser degree Gomes. I believe Napoli was targeted for a while. But you can make an argument they could of had a 100 million payroll about but they were worried of the backlash. Look they get everyone who has no compensation guys. I don't believe these would be 1st choices.
My opinion is that I wish they would of just fully commited and reset payroll. But at least there short termers.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 3, 2013 17:44:00 GMT -5
It's too bad they are caught up in a big market. I believe they were afraid to fully commit this year. I mean Drew,Ortiz,Victorino,Dempster and to a lesser degree Gomes. I believe Napoli was targeted for a while. But you can make an argument they could of had a 100 million payroll about but they were worried of the backlash. Look they get everyone who has no compensation guys. I don't believe these would be 1st choices. My opinion is that I wish they would of just fully commited and reset payroll. But at least there short termers. Why? For all the money they spent, they really didn't compromise future payroll flexibility at all. What's the point of lowering payroll? To line John Henry's pockets? John Henry is a rich man, he doesn't need any more money. |
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 3, 2013 18:10:06 GMT -5
Wait, so you would rather have had them not spend on any of the FA they got this year even though it essentially doesn't harm the future payroll anyways? I'm not sure I understand that. If the goal is to be able to have a ton of flexibility in 2-3 years, I'd rather them have a more competitive team until then if the flexibility will remain. There's no benefit other than potentially a few draft slots to having a weaker team this year when 3 years from now the payroll flexibility is going to be the same regardless.
If they are going to have 0 payroll committed for 2016 at the moment and the goal is for that year to be able to build whatever team they want, what sense does it make sacrificing 2013-2015 if you aren't going to harm that 2016 payroll? Buchholz is the only guy with even an option for the 2016 season
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 3, 2013 18:55:05 GMT -5
There's no benefit other than potentially a few draft slots to having a weaker team this year when 3 years from now the payroll flexibility is going to be the same regardless. And even that is potentially offset by one or more of these guys netting a comp pick, or even being traded. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 4, 2013 7:59:32 GMT -5
There's no benefit other than potentially a few draft slots to having a weaker team this year when 3 years from now the payroll flexibility is going to be the same regardless. And even that is potentially offset by one or more of these guys netting a comp pick, or even being traded. Or the team actually making the playoffs and competing for a World Series. We act like this was really a 69 win team talent wise when it truly wasn't. I am looking forward to this season more so then in recent years past. It's a fun team with good personality for once and I'm excited to see where it goes. Ultimately, that's what it's all about for us fans. The front office should be trying to accommodate that without hurting itself . BC has done a nice job with these contracts. If they are going to have flexibility, I'd like to see them use it to extend some players as the time becomes right. I've always been a huge believer in strong power bullpens. They coud have the luxury of spending a little more there because of the salaries elsewhere. Bailey is under control thru 2014 (I'd just ride that out) Miller, is under control thru 2014 as well, he's the one I'd attempt to extend or reasonable money. Worth the gamble to me to jump out on front of it, as 2 more years like last one and he's someone's closer. He's young and doesn't have a lot of mileage on that arm. He reminds me of Randy Johnson in that he's a tall power lefty who took longer to harness his stuff. Strike now while he still feels endebted to you for resurrecting his career. 4 years at 3-4M per seems reasonable for both (2014-2017). Please spare the did you just compare him to one of the best pitchers of all time responses. It's not insinuating that type of dominance, just that they are both tall pitchers who struggled to get control of their deliveries. Miller isn't a starter and won't have his type of career. |
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Post by sibbysisti on Apr 4, 2013 9:13:12 GMT -5
Saying the Red Sox need to 'draft and develop better' is like saying you need to pick better lottery tickets. I guess I'll have to do a better job scouting the places where I buy my lottery tickets. Will probably look at past performances to see whether the lottery agent has had multiple winners in the past. Scouting is the key. |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 4, 2013 9:13:15 GMT -5
Miller, is under control thru 2014 as well, he's the one I'd attempt to extend or reasonable money. Worth the gamble to me to jump out on front of it, as 2 more years like last one and he's someone's closer. He's young and doesn't have a lot of mileage on that arm. He reminds me of Randy Johnson in that he's a tall power lefty who took longer to harness his stuff. Strike now while he still feels endebted to you for resurrecting his career. 4 years at 3-4M per seems reasonable for both (2014-2017). Please spare the did you just compare him to one of the best pitchers of all time responses. .... a year ahead of free agency to a reliever who's had one good year ?" response? |
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 5, 2013 9:14:16 GMT -5
All I was saying is you can't just 'draft better'. I think the Red Sox do a great job of drafting a mix of 'sure-things' and 'high-ceiling lottery tickets'. Throwing more money at drafting doesn't equal a better minor league system.
And to sibbysisti's point, yes you can scout better when gambling. You can take a better odds but lower winnings game like blackjack, or throw all your money on 1 number in roulette. My point was, whether they take the safe pick that every other team/scout/guru would take, or the high-ceiling high school kid from no where, no one KNOWS who will be the better player. It's all still luck, you just try to pick the player with the best odds. And spending 30 million or 300 million won't change that.
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