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The Immediate Future at DH
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2021 17:24:27 GMT -5
First of all, a major rule clarification that was tough to hunt down: a player who accepts a qualifying offer cannot be traded until June 15 following.
Also of note: like all players, guys with opt-outs can be traded starting a day after the WS ends. They can opt out any time between the end of the WS and 5 days after it ends. Five days after is also the deadline for offering a QO.
---
Here are some true things:
- There is not room for both JDM and Schwarber next year, but we do need one of them.
- There may well not be room for either in 2023. At that point, we hope to have Casas, Devers, and Dalbec holding down 1B, 3B, and DH between them (alighment TBD).
- JDM projects to be worth his salary next year if he opts out. His reputation as a second hitting coach and a hitter's role model is real, and makes him more valuable than his numbers. If he opts out, he should have no difficulty finding a 1-year deal at similar money, and will probably get two years.
- Schwarber's better than JDM now, and is 5 1/2 years younger.
So there is an ideal scenario: JDM is traded or opt outs, is given a QO and declines and signs elsewhere. Sox add talent.
Sox sign Schwarber to a 1-year deal (perhaps with a mutual option). (Is this feasible? We'll discuss that.)
Sox a year from now either sign Schwarber to an extension and trade Dalbec to a team that can use him at 3B, or if Dalbec looks elite, let Schwarber go and again get a draft pick via QO, rejected.
Since this is the optimum scenario, and it's not rocket science, JDM has to opt out to give himself flexibility. The Sox will offer a QO and JDM will turn it down. The Sox can then try to get Schwarber on a 1-year deal and if they fail, they can very likely get JDM back, because not changing teams, and sticking with a team certain to contend, is worth money to him. The Sox then have the option of trading either him or Dalbec a year from now.
Compensation for JDM will be a pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds if they stay under the tax limit or if JDM signs for less than $50M guaranteed, which is to say, signs for less than 3 years. The latter seems likely. Same thing applies to Schwarber a year from now, of course. This is the hidden rationale for staying under the limit that I missed all year (and not just because Cots' had JDM's contract wrong). If you expect to lose a FA but get compensation, and if you have a track record of drafting well, staying under has real extra value.
So, how feasible is the 1-year deal?
A player signing a multi-year deal is paid most for the first year, and less for each subsequent year. So 1-year free agent deal ends up a plus if a player has a year as good as or better than expected. A player willing to take the risk can make more money by taking a one year deal or series of deals.
Here's what makes this feasible. A team with deep pockets like the Sox dreams of finding ways to game the system by essentially buying draft picks.
So the Sox can take the value of the pick after the 2nd round they expect to get for JDM, and the value of the pick after 4th or 2nd (if they can stay under the limit) they expect to get for Schwarber, and give it to Schwarber. That's a crazy good deal for him. If you don't have to give all of it to him (and you may not have to), you come out ahead.
With that extra value, why wouldn't Schwarber take the risk?
Did they work all this out before trading for him?
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 17, 2021 17:38:43 GMT -5
First of all, a major rule clarification that was tough to hunt down: a player who accepts a qualifying offer cannot be traded until June 15 following.
Also of note: like all players, guys with opt-outs can be traded starting a day after the WS ends. They can opt out any time between the end of the WS and 5 days after it ends. Five days after is also the deadline for offering a QO.
---
Here are some true things:
- There is not room for both JDM and Schwarber next year, but we do need one of them.
- There may well not be room for either in 2023. At that point, we hope to have Casas, Devers, and Dalbec holding down 1B, 3B, and DH between them (alighment TBD).
- JDM projects to be worth his salary next year if he opts out. His reputation as a second hitting coach and a hitter's role model is real, and makes him more valuable than his numbers. If he opts out, he should have no difficulty finding a 1-year deal at similar money, and will probably get two years.
- Schwarber's better than JDM now, and is 5 1/2 years younger.
So there is an ideal scenario: JDM is traded or opt outs, is given a QO and declines and signs elsewhere. Sox add talent.
Sox sign Schwarber to a 1-year deal (perhaps with a mutual option). (Is this feasible? We'll discuss that.)
Sox a year from now either sign Schwarber to an extension and trade Dalbec to a team that can use him at 3B, or if Dalbec looks elite, let Schwarber go and again get a draft pick via QO, rejected.
Since this is the optimum scenario, and it's not rocket science, JDM has to opt out to give himself flexibility. The Sox will offer a QO and JDM will turn it down. The Sox can then try to get Schwarber on a 1-year deal and if they fail, they can very likely get JDM back, because not changing teams, and sticking with a team certain to contend, is worth money to him. The Sox then have the option of trading either him or Dalbec a year from now.
Compensation for JDM will be a pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds if they stay under the tax limit or if JDM signs for less than $50M guaranteed, which is to say, signs for less than 3 years. The latter seems likely. Same thing applies to Schwarber a year from now, of course. This is the hidden rationale for staying under the limit that I missed all year (and not just because Cots' had JDM's contract wrong). If you expect to lose a FA but get compensation, and if you have a track record of drafting well, staying under has real extra value.
So, how feasible is the 1-year deal?
A player signing a multi-year deal is paid most for the first year, and less for each subsequent year. So 1-year free agent deal ends up a plus if a player has a year as good as or better than expected. A player willing to take the risk can make more money by taking a one year deal or series of deals.
Here's what makes this feasible. A team with deep pockets like the Sox dreams of finding ways to game the system by essentially buying draft picks.
So the Sox can take the value of the pick after the 2nd round they expect to get for JDM, and the value of the pick after 4th or 2nd (if they can stay under the limit) they expect to get for Schwarber, and give it to Schwarber. That's a crazy good deal for him. If you don't have to give all of it to him (and you may not have to), you come out ahead.
With that extra value, why wouldn't Schwarber take the risk?
Did they work all this out before trading for him?
Interesting and not wildly improbable. But I am guessing that JDM does not opt out. I doubt that any team gives him three years, and two is open to question given that his last two years have seen something of a diminution of his contributions. But let him opt out and we can sign Schwarber as the DH, almost certainly to a multiple year contract because he is earning it. We do get to a possible Casas, Devers, Schwarber, Dalbec logjam at some point. No need to solve that now. All kinds of intervening variables could help to provide the solution on their own. And if all four come good, it will be a good problem to have. The Dodgers will take one of them off our hands because they always do. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 17, 2021 17:39:10 GMT -5
I’d like Schwarber to be our DH for the next 5 years. If JD opts out, your scenario is ideal. If JD doesn’t opt out, I’d rotate JD and Schwarber in LF/DH for a year. Trade Verdugo for pitching.
Smaller market teams will really want Dalbec if he gets beaten out by Casas. We could have some talent to dangle next year. Especially, If Duran and Downs start well.
I think Devera stays at 3b as long as he’s in shape. Seems to hit it off with Cora. Xander is a little trickier. We will know much more about Marcelo by the end of next year. Could we sign Semien to play 2b next year and move to short until Marcelo is ready? Semien has had 2 great seasons. 2019 and 2021. 2020 doesn’t even count in my book.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 18, 2021 10:22:35 GMT -5
I’d like Schwarber to be our DH for the next 5 years. If JD opts out, your scenario is ideal. If JD doesn’t opt out, I’d rotate JD and Schwarber in LF/DH for a year. Trade Verdugo for pitching. Smaller market teams will really want Dalbec if he gets beaten out by Casas. We could have some talent to dangle next year. Especially, If Duran and Downs start well. I think Devera stays at 3b as long as he’s in shape. Seems to hit it off with Cora. Xander is a little trickier. We will know much more about Marcelo by the end of next year. Could we sign Semien to play 2b next year and move to short until Marcelo is ready? Semien has had 2 great seasons. 2019 and 2021. 2020 doesn’t even count in my book. I don't see the problem with having both Schwarber and JDM on the team for a year. That's... what they have now. It seems to be working fine! Albeit at some degree of defensive cost. Injuries have a way of resolving most logjams. And if not, JD could be traded (after 6/15, apparently). So no need to trade Verdugo.
On the other hand, lately I'm thinking it less likely that they keep Schwarber. The team needs to make some defensive improvements, and Schwarber is positionally somewhat redundant.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835 
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 18, 2021 12:12:59 GMT -5
First of all, a major rule clarification that was tough to hunt down: a player who accepts a qualifying offer cannot be traded until June 15 following.
Also of note: like all players, guys with opt-outs can be traded starting a day after the WS ends. They can opt out any time between the end of the WS and 5 days after it ends. Five days after is also the deadline for offering a QO.
---
Here are some true things:
- There is not room for both JDM and Schwarber next year, but we do need one of them.
- There may well not be room for either in 2023. At that point, we hope to have Casas, Devers, and Dalbec holding down 1B, 3B, and DH between them (alighment TBD).
- JDM projects to be worth his salary next year if he opts out. His reputation as a second hitting coach and a hitter's role model is real, and makes him more valuable than his numbers. If he opts out, he should have no difficulty finding a 1-year deal at similar money, and will probably get two years.
- Schwarber's better than JDM now, and is 5 1/2 years younger.
So there is an ideal scenario: JDM is traded or opt outs, is given a QO and declines and signs elsewhere. Sox add talent.
Sox sign Schwarber to a 1-year deal (perhaps with a mutual option). (Is this feasible? We'll discuss that.)
Sox a year from now either sign Schwarber to an extension and trade Dalbec to a team that can use him at 3B, or if Dalbec looks elite, let Schwarber go and again get a draft pick via QO, rejected.
Since this is the optimum scenario, and it's not rocket science, JDM has to opt out to give himself flexibility. The Sox will offer a QO and JDM will turn it down. The Sox can then try to get Schwarber on a 1-year deal and if they fail, they can very likely get JDM back, because not changing teams, and sticking with a team certain to contend, is worth money to him. The Sox then have the option of trading either him or Dalbec a year from now.
Compensation for JDM will be a pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds if they stay under the tax limit or if JDM signs for less than $50M guaranteed, which is to say, signs for less than 3 years. The latter seems likely. Same thing applies to Schwarber a year from now, of course. This is the hidden rationale for staying under the limit that I missed all year (and not just because Cots' had JDM's contract wrong). If you expect to lose a FA but get compensation, and if you have a track record of drafting well, staying under has real extra value.
So, how feasible is the 1-year deal?
A player signing a multi-year deal is paid most for the first year, and less for each subsequent year. So 1-year free agent deal ends up a plus if a player has a year as good as or better than expected. A player willing to take the risk can make more money by taking a one year deal or series of deals.
Here's what makes this feasible. A team with deep pockets like the Sox dreams of finding ways to game the system by essentially buying draft picks.
So the Sox can take the value of the pick after the 2nd round they expect to get for JDM, and the value of the pick after 4th or 2nd (if they can stay under the limit) they expect to get for Schwarber, and give it to Schwarber. That's a crazy good deal for him. If you don't have to give all of it to him (and you may not have to), you come out ahead.
With that extra value, why wouldn't Schwarber take the risk?
Did they work all this out before trading for him?
Interesting thoughts, EV. But I don't see it playing out the way you describe. 1. I doubt JDM will opt out, though I'd love to see it. He's had a bad second half and is in that class of player for whom a QO could prevent his phone from ringing all winter. Players pay a punishing price when a QO keeps them from getting a deal until after the following year's draft. Kimbrel sat out the start of the 2019 season before signing with the Cubs after the draft. He stunk that year and the next before getting it together this year. Stephen Drew was a solid player for the 2013 World Champs and was able to spend the next spring polishing his ring because he didn't a have a job. He sucked in 2014 after finally signing and was never a good player again. He put up .7 WAR the rest of his career, which ended in 2017. Players and agents should avoid the risk of missing ST and the first 2.5-plus months of a season. It's the reason I think E-Rod will jump at a QO if the RS offer him one. 2. On Schwarber, no way he signs a one-year contract. He's 28 and putting up a 142 OPS-plus season. He's going to want security and a stable home. I'd love to see that home be Boston. The RS should offer a multi-year deal that takes him through his prime years. If he and JDM are here next year, they can split LF and DH. Offer him 4 years at $17M/per and see what he says. |
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Post by jbsox on Sept 18, 2021 12:49:49 GMT -5
First of all, a major rule clarification that was tough to hunt down: a player who accepts a qualifying offer cannot be traded until June 15 following.
Also of note: like all players, guys with opt-outs can be traded starting a day after the WS ends. They can opt out any time between the end of the WS and 5 days after it ends. Five days after is also the deadline for offering a QO.
---
Here are some true things:
- There is not room for both JDM and Schwarber next year, but we do need one of them.
- There may well not be room for either in 2023. At that point, we hope to have Casas, Devers, and Dalbec holding down 1B, 3B, and DH between them (alighment TBD).
- JDM projects to be worth his salary next year if he opts out. His reputation as a second hitting coach and a hitter's role model is real, and makes him more valuable than his numbers. If he opts out, he should have no difficulty finding a 1-year deal at similar money, and will probably get two years.
- Schwarber's better than JDM now, and is 5 1/2 years younger.
So there is an ideal scenario: JDM is traded or opt outs, is given a QO and declines and signs elsewhere. Sox add talent.
Sox sign Schwarber to a 1-year deal (perhaps with a mutual option). (Is this feasible? We'll discuss that.)
Sox a year from now either sign Schwarber to an extension and trade Dalbec to a team that can use him at 3B, or if Dalbec looks elite, let Schwarber go and again get a draft pick via QO, rejected.
Since this is the optimum scenario, and it's not rocket science, JDM has to opt out to give himself flexibility. The Sox will offer a QO and JDM will turn it down. The Sox can then try to get Schwarber on a 1-year deal and if they fail, they can very likely get JDM back, because not changing teams, and sticking with a team certain to contend, is worth money to him. The Sox then have the option of trading either him or Dalbec a year from now.
Compensation for JDM will be a pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds if they stay under the tax limit or if JDM signs for less than $50M guaranteed, which is to say, signs for less than 3 years. The latter seems likely. Same thing applies to Schwarber a year from now, of course. This is the hidden rationale for staying under the limit that I missed all year (and not just because Cots' had JDM's contract wrong). If you expect to lose a FA but get compensation, and if you have a track record of drafting well, staying under has real extra value.
So, how feasible is the 1-year deal?
A player signing a multi-year deal is paid most for the first year, and less for each subsequent year. So 1-year free agent deal ends up a plus if a player has a year as good as or better than expected. A player willing to take the risk can make more money by taking a one year deal or series of deals.
Here's what makes this feasible. A team with deep pockets like the Sox dreams of finding ways to game the system by essentially buying draft picks.
So the Sox can take the value of the pick after the 2nd round they expect to get for JDM, and the value of the pick after 4th or 2nd (if they can stay under the limit) they expect to get for Schwarber, and give it to Schwarber. That's a crazy good deal for him. If you don't have to give all of it to him (and you may not have to), you come out ahead.
With that extra value, why wouldn't Schwarber take the risk?
Did they work all this out before trading for him?
Interesting thoughts, EV. But I don't see it playing out the way you describe. 1. I doubt JDM will opt out, though I'd love to see it. He's had a bad second half and is in that class of player for whom a QO could prevent his phone from ringing all winter. Players pay a punishing price when a QO keeps them from getting a deal until after the following year's draft. Kimbrel sat out the start of the 2019 season before signing with the Cubs after the draft. He stunk that year and the next before getting it together this year. Stephen Drew was a solid player for the 2013 World Champs and was able to spend the next spring polishing his ring because he didn't a have a job. He sucked in 2014 after finally signing and was never a good player again. He put up .7 WAR the rest of his career, which ended in 2017. Players and agents should avoid the risk of missing ST and the first 2.5-plus months of a season. It's the reason I think E-Rod will jump at a QO if the RS offer him one. 2. On Schwarber, no way he signs a one-year contract. He's 28 and putting up a 142 OPS-plus season. He's going to want security and a stable home. I'd love to see that home be Boston. The RS should offer a multi-year deal that takes him through his prime years. If he and JDM are here next year, they can split LF and DH. Offer him 4 years at $17M/per and see what he says. I agree with everything you said here, and I just want to also say having both at least next year gives us options. We don’t know if Dalbec will regress at all next year or if Casas hits a roadblock. JD hasn’t played as well the 2nd half of this season, but enough DH types have hit well deep into their 30s. It also protects in case of injuries in a long season say if Devers is out for a period of time, Dalbec can move to 3rd and Schwarber can play some first, or for example if there is an injury to one of the OFs Schwarber might have to play full time out for there for a period of time. Especially if we go over the tax I’d say it’s an easy decision to keep both next year, and if need be possibly deal from a position of strength later on. |
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 18, 2021 14:10:52 GMT -5
First of all, a major rule clarification that was tough to hunt down: a player who accepts a qualifying offer cannot be traded until June 15 following.
Also of note: like all players, guys with opt-outs can be traded starting a day after the WS ends. They can opt out any time between the end of the WS and 5 days after it ends. Five days after is also the deadline for offering a QO.
---
Here are some true things:
- There is not room for both JDM and Schwarber next year, but we do need one of them.
- There may well not be room for either in 2023. At that point, we hope to have Casas, Devers, and Dalbec holding down 1B, 3B, and DH between them (alighment TBD).
- JDM projects to be worth his salary next year if he opts out. His reputation as a second hitting coach and a hitter's role model is real, and makes him more valuable than his numbers. If he opts out, he should have no difficulty finding a 1-year deal at similar money, and will probably get two years.
- Schwarber's better than JDM now, and is 5 1/2 years younger.
So there is an ideal scenario: JDM is traded or opt outs, is given a QO and declines and signs elsewhere. Sox add talent.
Sox sign Schwarber to a 1-year deal (perhaps with a mutual option). (Is this feasible? We'll discuss that.)
Sox a year from now either sign Schwarber to an extension and trade Dalbec to a team that can use him at 3B, or if Dalbec looks elite, let Schwarber go and again get a draft pick via QO, rejected.
Since this is the optimum scenario, and it's not rocket science, JDM has to opt out to give himself flexibility. The Sox will offer a QO and JDM will turn it down. The Sox can then try to get Schwarber on a 1-year deal and if they fail, they can very likely get JDM back, because not changing teams, and sticking with a team certain to contend, is worth money to him. The Sox then have the option of trading either him or Dalbec a year from now.
Compensation for JDM will be a pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds if they stay under the tax limit or if JDM signs for less than $50M guaranteed, which is to say, signs for less than 3 years. The latter seems likely. Same thing applies to Schwarber a year from now, of course. This is the hidden rationale for staying under the limit that I missed all year (and not just because Cots' had JDM's contract wrong). If you expect to lose a FA but get compensation, and if you have a track record of drafting well, staying under has real extra value.
So, how feasible is the 1-year deal?
A player signing a multi-year deal is paid most for the first year, and less for each subsequent year. So 1-year free agent deal ends up a plus if a player has a year as good as or better than expected. A player willing to take the risk can make more money by taking a one year deal or series of deals.
Here's what makes this feasible. A team with deep pockets like the Sox dreams of finding ways to game the system by essentially buying draft picks.
So the Sox can take the value of the pick after the 2nd round they expect to get for JDM, and the value of the pick after 4th or 2nd (if they can stay under the limit) they expect to get for Schwarber, and give it to Schwarber. That's a crazy good deal for him. If you don't have to give all of it to him (and you may not have to), you come out ahead.
With that extra value, why wouldn't Schwarber take the risk?
Did they work all this out before trading for him?
Interesting thoughts, EV. But I don't see it playing out the way you describe. 1. I doubt JDM will opt out, though I'd love to see it. He's had a bad second half and is in that class of player for whom a QO could prevent his phone from ringing all winter. Players pay a punishing price when a QO keeps them from getting a deal until after the following year's draft. Kimbrel sat out the start of the 2019 season before signing with the Cubs after the draft. He stunk that year and the next before getting it together this year. Stephen Drew was a solid player for the 2013 World Champs and was able to spend the next spring polishing his ring because he didn't a have a job. He sucked in 2014 after finally signing and was never a good player again. He put up .7 WAR the rest of his career, which ended in 2017. Players and agents should avoid the risk of missing ST and the first 2.5-plus months of a season. It's the reason I think E-Rod will jump at a QO if the RS offer him one. 2. On Schwarber, no way he signs a one-year contract. He's 28 and putting up a 142 OPS-plus season. He's going to want security and a stable home. I'd love to see that home be Boston. The RS should offer a multi-year deal that takes him through his prime years. If he and JDM are here next year, they can split LF and DH. Offer him 4 years at $17M/per and see what he says. I said this whole scenario is unlikely. I'll eat those words. It's downright not going to happen. Why would Schwarber take a one-year deal at big money for 2022 when the 2022 season is likely to be abbreviated and may not happen at all? A team trying to lure a player with a multi-year contract after this season should do the opposite. The team should offer a deal with a disproportionately small amount of the payout due in 2022. That way if the season gets shortened or wiped out, the player loses less money. The team's AAV burden would be the same. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 17:32:24 GMT -5
First of all, a major rule clarification that was tough to hunt down: a player who accepts a qualifying offer cannot be traded until June 15 following. Also of note: like all players, guys with opt-outs can be traded starting a day after the WS ends. They can opt out any time between the end of the WS and 5 days after it ends. Five days after is also the deadline for offering a QO. ---
Here are some true things: - There is not room for both JDM and Schwarber next year, but we do need one of them.
- There may well not be room for either in 2023. At that point, we hope to have Casas, Devers, and Dalbec holding down 1B, 3B, and DH between them (alighment TBD).
- JDM projects to be worth his salary next year if he opts out. His reputation as a second hitting coach and a hitter's role model is real, and makes him more valuable than his numbers. If he opts out, he should have no difficulty finding a 1-year deal at similar money, and will probably get two years.
- Schwarber's better than JDM now, and is 5 1/2 years younger.
So there is an ideal scenario: JDM is traded or opt outs, is given a QO and declines and signs elsewhere. Sox add talent. Sox sign Schwarber to a 1-year deal (perhaps with a mutual option). (Is this feasible? We'll discuss that.)
Sox a year from now either sign Schwarber to an extension and trade Dalbec to a team that can use him at 3B, or if Dalbec looks elite, let Schwarber go and again get a draft pick via QO, rejected.
Since this is the optimum scenario, and it's not rocket science, JDM has to opt out to give himself flexibility. The Sox will offer a QO and JDM will turn it down. The Sox can then try to get Schwarber on a 1-year deal and if they fail, they can very likely get JDM back, because not changing teams, and sticking with a team certain to contend, is worth money to him. The Sox then have the option of trading either him or Dalbec a year from now.
Compensation for JDM will be a pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds if they stay under the tax limit or if JDM signs for less than $50M guaranteed, which is to say, signs for less than 3 years. The latter seems likely. Same thing applies to Schwarber a year from now, of course. This is the hidden rationale for staying under the limit that I missed all year (and not just because Cots' had JDM's contract wrong). If you expect to lose a FA but get compensation, and if you have a track record of drafting well, staying under has real extra value.
So, how feasible is the 1-year deal?
A player signing a multi-year deal is paid most for the first year, and less for each subsequent year. So 1-year free agent deal ends up a plus if a player has a year as good as or better than expected. A player willing to take the risk can make more money by taking a one year deal or series of deals.
Here's what makes this feasible. A team with deep pockets like the Sox dreams of finding ways to game the system by essentially buying draft picks.
So the Sox can take the value of the pick after the 2nd round they expect to get for JDM, and the value of the pick after 4th or 2nd (if they can stay under the limit) they expect to get for Schwarber, and give it to Schwarber. That's a crazy good deal for him. If you don't have to give all of it to him (and you may not have to), you come out ahead.
With that extra value, why wouldn't Schwarber take the risk?
Did they work all this out before trading for him?
First off, lets eliminate three of those things. 1. Schwarber's best position is outfield. Dalbec, Casas, Devers and Schwarber can easily be in the lineup at the same time. 2. There's pretty much zero chance JDM opts out then accepts a QO. 3. There's pretty much zero chance Schwarber accepts a one year deal knowing the plan is to jettison him with a QO attached. This needs to be rethought out. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 18, 2021 17:43:02 GMT -5
First of all, a major rule clarification that was tough to hunt down: a player who accepts a qualifying offer cannot be traded until June 15 following. Also of note: like all players, guys with opt-outs can be traded starting a day after the WS ends. They can opt out any time between the end of the WS and 5 days after it ends. Five days after is also the deadline for offering a QO. ---
Here are some true things: - There is not room for both JDM and Schwarber next year, but we do need one of them.
- There may well not be room for either in 2023. At that point, we hope to have Casas, Devers, and Dalbec holding down 1B, 3B, and DH between them (alighment TBD).
- JDM projects to be worth his salary next year if he opts out. His reputation as a second hitting coach and a hitter's role model is real, and makes him more valuable than his numbers. If he opts out, he should have no difficulty finding a 1-year deal at similar money, and will probably get two years.
- Schwarber's better than JDM now, and is 5 1/2 years younger.
So there is an ideal scenario: JDM is traded or opt outs, is given a QO and declines and signs elsewhere. Sox add talent. Sox sign Schwarber to a 1-year deal (perhaps with a mutual option). (Is this feasible? We'll discuss that.)
Sox a year from now either sign Schwarber to an extension and trade Dalbec to a team that can use him at 3B, or if Dalbec looks elite, let Schwarber go and again get a draft pick via QO, rejected.
Since this is the optimum scenario, and it's not rocket science, JDM has to opt out to give himself flexibility. The Sox will offer a QO and JDM will turn it down. The Sox can then try to get Schwarber on a 1-year deal and if they fail, they can very likely get JDM back, because not changing teams, and sticking with a team certain to contend, is worth money to him. The Sox then have the option of trading either him or Dalbec a year from now.
Compensation for JDM will be a pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds if they stay under the tax limit or if JDM signs for less than $50M guaranteed, which is to say, signs for less than 3 years. The latter seems likely. Same thing applies to Schwarber a year from now, of course. This is the hidden rationale for staying under the limit that I missed all year (and not just because Cots' had JDM's contract wrong). If you expect to lose a FA but get compensation, and if you have a track record of drafting well, staying under has real extra value.
So, how feasible is the 1-year deal?
A player signing a multi-year deal is paid most for the first year, and less for each subsequent year. So 1-year free agent deal ends up a plus if a player has a year as good as or better than expected. A player willing to take the risk can make more money by taking a one year deal or series of deals.
Here's what makes this feasible. A team with deep pockets like the Sox dreams of finding ways to game the system by essentially buying draft picks.
So the Sox can take the value of the pick after the 2nd round they expect to get for JDM, and the value of the pick after 4th or 2nd (if they can stay under the limit) they expect to get for Schwarber, and give it to Schwarber. That's a crazy good deal for him. If you don't have to give all of it to him (and you may not have to), you come out ahead.
With that extra value, why wouldn't Schwarber take the risk?
Did they work all this out before trading for him?
First off, lets eliminate three of those things. 1. Schwarber's best position is outfield. Dalbec, Casas, Devers and Schwarber can easily be in the lineup at the same time. 2. There's pretty much zero chance JDM opts out then accepts a QO.3. There's pretty much zero chance Schwarber accepts a one year deal knowing the plan is to jettison him with a QO attached. This needs to be rethought out. I don't think (2) is so far-fetched actually. Because his salary next season would be essentially the same as a QO, JDM could opt out just to see if there's a market for his services, and if not could take the QO (perhaps with a gentleman's agreement that the Sox would offer it). Even without the test-the-market incentive, though, it could make sense because it accepting the QO would prevent him from being offered a QO next season. So in essence he would be finishing his deal with Boston but without the potential of a post-2022 QO that would drive down his market that off-season. That's better for him than simply choosing not to opt out. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 17:50:59 GMT -5
First off, lets eliminate three of those things. 1. Schwarber's best position is outfield. Dalbec, Casas, Devers and Schwarber can easily be in the lineup at the same time. 2. There's pretty much zero chance JDM opts out then accepts a QO.3. There's pretty much zero chance Schwarber accepts a one year deal knowing the plan is to jettison him with a QO attached. This needs to be rethought out. I don't think (2) is so far-fetched actually. Because his salary next season would be essentially the same as a QO, JDM could opt out just to see if there's a market for his services, and if not could take the QO (perhaps with a gentleman's agreement that the Sox would offer it). Even without the test-the-market incentive, though, it could make sense because it accepting the QO would prevent him from being offered a QO next season. So in essence he would be finishing his deal with Boston but without the potential of a post-2022 QO that would drive down his market that off-season. That's better for him than simply choosing not to opt out. I'd take JDM's word for it that he isn't going to opt out but that being said, I think he'd opt out if he thought the Sox didn't want him. It won't be a money thing. One additional note, Casas isn't going to break camp with the Sox because of the service time thing so, the June date for trading a player has three weeks less effect. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 18:03:45 GMT -5
If JDM thinks he's an extra spare tire, he could also negotiate to opt out if the Sox agree not to make a QO, that would vastly improve his marketability.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 18, 2021 18:11:18 GMT -5
I don't think (2) is so far-fetched actually. Because his salary next season would be essentially the same as a QO, JDM could opt out just to see if there's a market for his services, and if not could take the QO (perhaps with a gentleman's agreement that the Sox would offer it). Even without the test-the-market incentive, though, it could make sense because it accepting the QO would prevent him from being offered a QO next season. So in essence he would be finishing his deal with Boston but without the potential of a post-2022 QO that would drive down his market that off-season. That's better for him than simply choosing not to opt out. but that being said, I think he'd opt out if he thought the Sox didn't want him. It won't be a money thing. One additional note, Casas isn't going to break camp with the Sox because of the service time thing so, the June date for trading a player has three weeks less effect. Wait - he said this? It was very much my impression that he was keeping his options open. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 18:32:22 GMT -5
Additional somewhat small note that favors Schwarber, his college catching experience would likely make Cora less reluctant to pinch hit for one of the catchers since he could serve as emergency catcher if the second catcher got hurt.
That could be huge in World Serious games in NL parks.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 18:43:39 GMT -5
I'd take JDM's word for it that he isn't going to opt out but that being said, I think he'd opt out if he thought the Sox didn't want him. It won't be a money thing. One additional note, Casas isn't going to break camp with the Sox because of the service time thing so, the June date for trading a player has three weeks less effect. Wait - he said this? It was very much my impression that he was keeping his options open. He said it when he signed the contract. He was very specific that the opt out was his agent's idea and he had no intention of exercising it. To my knowledge, he hasn't said anything else since. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 18:52:40 GMT -5
There was no discussion last year either, no attempt to negotiate an extension, he just declined the option.
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 18, 2021 19:05:37 GMT -5
Whether JD opts out or not, Schwarber will only sign a large multi year contract in my opinion. If I am the Sox, I only go there if I know that there is zero intention to sign JD once his deal ends. There is really no room for JD and Kyle long term. There are other free agents that can give equal bang for the buck and play a position of need (LF CF 2B) rather than having one of those two permanently in. LF.
Always assuming that Devers and Dalbec are long term keepers.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 19:11:47 GMT -5
Whether JD opts out or not, Schwarber will only sign a large multi year contract in my opinion. If I am the Sox, I only go there if I know that there is zero intention to sign JD once his deal ends. There is really no room for JD and Kyle long term. There are other free agents that can give equal bang for the buck and play a position of need (LF CF 2B) rather than having one of those two permanently in. LF. Always assuming that Devers and Dalbec are long term keepers. JDM's deal ends after 2022. That's the question, how to deal with next year. |
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 18, 2021 20:54:39 GMT -5
Here's what makes this feasible. A team with deep pockets like the Sox dreams of finding ways to game the system by essentially buying draft picks.
So the Sox can take the value of the pick after the 2nd round they expect to get for JDM, and the value of the pick after 4th or 2nd (if they can stay under the limit) they expect to get for Schwarber, and give it to Schwarber. That's a crazy good deal for him. If you don't have to give all of it to him (and you may not have to), you come out ahead.
First off, lets eliminate three of those things. 1. Schwarber's best position is outfield. Dalbec, Casas, Devers and Schwarber can easily be in the lineup at the same time. 2. There's pretty much zero chance JDM opts out then accepts a QO. 3. There's pretty much zero chance Schwarber accepts a one year deal knowing the plan is to jettison him with a QO attached. This needs to be rethought out. I agree that having Bobby Bombs, Casas, Devers and Schwarber would be tremendous. It's just the kind of affordable, flexible depth that CB was a part of assembling in Tampa. B-Bombs would play 1B or 3B against LH SP and DH nearly all the time against RH. EV - to your claim about the RS finding ways to game the system to buy draft picks (bolded), I don't see any evidence of that. If I have a criticism of CB, it's that he hasn't been more all in on accumulating young assets. I think he missed the chance to get a decent return on Vaz at last year's deadline. I also wish he had found a way to take on at least one bad contract to bring back a top 100 prospect. |
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Post by marrcus on Sept 18, 2021 21:19:32 GMT -5
I think he will be ... but I assume nothing with Bloom. I wouldn't be shocked if he moved Raf in the right deal. How Devers ends this season will say a lot.
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Post by jmei on Sept 18, 2021 21:33:00 GMT -5
Wait - he said this? It was very much my impression that he was keeping his options open. He said it when he signed the contract. He was very specific that the opt out was his agent's idea and he had no intention of exercising it. To my knowledge, he hasn't said anything else since. Another poster pointed this out earlier, but are you conflating Chris Sale with J.D. Martinez? Sale is the one who said: "[The opt out is] more my agent’s doing,” he said. “I don’t know a whole lot about that. I believe that’s also around when the new collective bargaining agreement is up as well, which from a business sense, I think that’s good. “Hey man, I just signed it, don’t talk about me leaving already.” ( link), while I can't find anything from J.D. to that effect. Indeed, sounds like J.D. was seriously weighing opting out last year even though he was coming off a terrible offensive season ( link). |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2021 22:16:59 GMT -5
He said it when he signed the contract. He was very specific that the opt out was his agent's idea and he had no intention of exercising it. To my knowledge, he hasn't said anything else since. Another poster pointed this out earlier, but are you conflating Chris Sale with J.D. Martinez? Sale is the one who said: "[The opt out is] more my agent’s doing,” he said. “I don’t know a whole lot about that. I believe that’s also around when the new collective bargaining agreement is up as well, which from a business sense, I think that’s good. “Hey man, I just signed it, don’t talk about me leaving already.” ( link), while I can't find anything from J.D. to that effect. Indeed, sounds like J.D. was seriously weighing opting out last year even though he was coming off a terrible offensive season ( link). Hmmm, you might be right but I'm not 100% sure. Reading that article, it's surprising that Boras didn't recommend opting out after 2019 (or maybe he did but JDM said no). That article also says (referring to last year's opt out) : Martinez also had an opt-out coming into this season, which he declined to use. At that point, he was coming off a strong 2019 season in which he hit 36 home runs. To pass on that opt-out while using his upcoming one would be quite a shocking development.If that was the case last year, it would be even more shocking now. Last year at this time it looked like there would be a DH in the NL. Further, if he declined a QO he likely would sit until June and if the Red Sox didn't offer one, he might have to take a loss on next year's salary. |
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