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What 2021-22 Free Agents Do You Want
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Oct 24, 2021 9:20:28 GMT -5
I don’t think Dalbec’s trade value will ever be as high as it is right now. It can’t help that they didn’t believe in him enough to play him in the playoffs, though. For him to play, either Schwarber or JD or Verdugo would have to sit, and Cora wanted all of them in the lineup. There seems to be a lot of recency bias in this thread. Trade Renfroe? He was a terrific asset all year who just happened to hit a cold streak in October. Same with Dalbec. Same with Eduardo Rodriguez, who didn't suddenly become a great picture because his last start was good, and also isn't as bad as he sometimes looked this year. You have to look at the whole picture for every simgle player, and the whole picture is always going to be more complicated than our emotional reactions can acknowledge.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 24, 2021 9:50:57 GMT -5
It can’t help that they didn’t believe in him enough to play him in the playoffs, though. For him to play, either Schwarber or JD or Verdugo would have to sit, and Cora wanted all of them in the lineup. There seems to be a lot of recency bias in this thread. Trade Renfroe? He was a terrific asset all year who just happened to hit a cold streak in October. Same with Dalbec. Same with Eduardo Rodriguez, who didn't suddenly become a great picture because his last start was good, and also isn't as bad as he sometimes looked this year. You have to look at the whole picture for every simgle player, and the whole picture is always going to be more complicated than our emotional reactions can acknowledge. Agree with this. Lots of recency bias and perhaps confirmation bias (which is normal. I mean, we're all human). People seem to forget that Schwarber posted the same bWAR as Dalbec in the time he was with the Sox (san playoffs).
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 24, 2021 9:58:44 GMT -5
For him to play, either Schwarber or JD or Verdugo would have to sit, and Cora wanted all of them in the lineup. There seems to be a lot of recency bias in this thread. Trade Renfroe? He was a terrific asset all year who just happened to hit a cold streak in October. Same with Dalbec. Same with Eduardo Rodriguez, who didn't suddenly become a great picture because his last start was good, and also isn't as bad as he sometimes looked this year. You have to look at the whole picture for every simgle player, and the whole picture is always going to be more complicated than our emotional reactions can acknowledge. Agree with this. Lots of recency bias and perhaps confirmation bias (which is normal. I mean, we're all human). People seem to forget that Schwarber posted the same bWAR as Dalbec in the time he was with the Sox (san playoffs). My point was that Dalbec’s trade value is probably pretty low. Lower than Beni’s was, and that yield was mostly lottery tickets. Schwarber is very good, and resigning him could make sense. Given the off-season and spring, he could probably be an adequate first-baseman. I am a big fan of keeping guys who have proven they can succeed in Boston over getting new guys about whom you are less sure.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 24, 2021 10:03:31 GMT -5
It can’t help that they didn’t believe in him enough to play him in the playoffs, though. For him to play, either Schwarber or JD or Verdugo would have to sit, and Cora wanted all of them in the lineup. There seems to be a lot of recency bias in this thread. Trade Renfroe? He was a terrific asset all year who just happened to hit a cold streak in October. Same with Dalbec. Same with Eduardo Rodriguez, who didn't suddenly become a great picture because his last start was good, and also isn't as bad as he sometimes looked this year. You have to look at the whole picture for every simgle player, and the whole picture is always going to be more complicated than our emotional reactions can acknowledge. I actually don't think people are doing this, really. The idea is to sell high on Renfroe or Dalbec (I'm more interested in doing that with the former than the latter); it's not the usual "our guy sucks so we should trade him for a bunch of valuable prospects" line. On Eduardo, I think the question is just whether you take ERA as gospel or not; those who do have been hating on him since May, those who don't have liked him all along.
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Post by beavertontim on Oct 24, 2021 10:22:51 GMT -5
Until there is a new CBA there will and should be very little signing. Baseball economics are going to look very different after this agreement is done. Committing to many dollars against a black hole would be a poor decision.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 24, 2021 11:12:28 GMT -5
Until there is a new CBA there will and should be very little signing. Baseball economics are going to look very different after this agreement is done. Committing to many dollars against a black hole would be a poor decision. Agree. The one positive of this is it may give us as close to an NBA-style free-agent signing period as we've seen in baseball.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 11:31:32 GMT -5
Agree with this. Lots of recency bias and perhaps confirmation bias (which is normal. I mean, we're all human). People seem to forget that Schwarber posted the same bWAR as Dalbec in the time he was with the Sox (san playoffs). My point was that Dalbec’s trade value is probably pretty low. Lower than Beni’s was, and that yield was mostly lottery tickets. Schwarber is very good, and resigning him could make sense. Given the off-season and spring, he could probably be an adequate first-baseman. I am a big fan of keeping guys who have proven they can succeed in Boston over getting new guys about whom you are less sure. I will disagree on BDs value being lower than Bennys at the moment but it would be close. Reason being control yrs and upside for a guy who has shown some serious pop yet he has some warts to overcome. I also like the Schwarber thought and guys who have proven to fit well in Boston and the AL East vs guys who have yet to experience it. The AL East is more for pitchers who have to face really good lineups more often. The ideal situation would be Dalbec gets off to a great start next year but Casas is even better, forcing his way into the Sox lineup. That could lead to a good trade for the Sox at the deadline. BD and Schwarber sharing reps at first with Schwarber also getting time in left and at DH would be my preference til Casas is ready.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 24, 2021 12:05:08 GMT -5
For him to play, either Schwarber or JD or Verdugo would have to sit, and Cora wanted all of them in the lineup. There seems to be a lot of recency bias in this thread. Trade Renfroe? He was a terrific asset all year who just happened to hit a cold streak in October. Same with Dalbec. Same with Eduardo Rodriguez, who didn't suddenly become a great picture because his last start was good, and also isn't as bad as he sometimes looked this year. You have to look at the whole picture for every simgle player, and the whole picture is always going to be more complicated than our emotional reactions can acknowledge. I actually don't think people are doing this, really. The idea is to sell high on Renfroe or Dalbec (I'm more interested in doing that with the former than the latter); it's not the usual "our guy sucks so we should trade him for a bunch of valuable prospects" line. On Eduardo, I think the question is just whether you take ERA as gospel or not; those who do have been hating on him since May, those who don't have liked him all along. ^This. He had a big year but I think it will ultimately be more of a high-water mark than a new baseline (he turns 30 in January). He could bring back more than a lottery ticket with his two years of control remaining. I also am not as high on his defense as many in this room.
I'd like to give Bobby a little more rope. He showed that he can respond to coaching and I think there's more in there. I only trade him if there's a bottom-feeder willing to buy very high on him -- perhaps someone would gamble that they can either build around him or sell him for more if he breaks out into a Pete Alonso type in a couple years. Otherwise I keep him and maybe we'll have Alonso 2.0 in 2023. Casas is brimming with promise but Opening Day 2022 will be just his 10th AAA game. I'd rather wait to see if they both become big league monsters before moving one or the other.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 24, 2021 12:11:09 GMT -5
Trading Dalbec seems like a formula for repeating the sub-replacement level experience we endured at 1B for the first four months of this season. Casas won't be ready by opening day, and based on recent periods of rookie adjustment we've seen around the league (including Dalbec's!) we shouldn't really expect him to add positive value at all in 2022. It seems like an odd proposal to weaken a position where we currently have a cheap solution for 2022 who still has quite a bit of upside.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 24, 2021 12:22:37 GMT -5
Wish list Starling Marte CF -- move Kiké to RF, move Renfroe for a nice young arm or two
Max Scherzer -- I wonder how interested he is to pitch for a team like LAD that likes to yank their starters so early. Also assumes he passes whatever medical tests are given.
Andrew McCutchen LF -- weak-half platoon with Verdugo
Raisel Iglesias/Kenley Jansen -- I kind of doubt Chaim pays full price for a closer but they need one (unless they make Pivetta the next Papelbon, which would be the most economical option). Rich Hill -- Remarkably threw 158.2 solid innings at age 41. Can't have too much starting pitching.
Re-sign Eduardo Rodriguez -- if the price is right Jose Iglesias SS/2B -- move Bogaerts to 3B and Devers to DH at least 80 games (or as long as Arroyo can stay healthy).
It's hard to imagine not going over the tax threshold for the next three years. All but Marte are likely to be 1-3 year signings, which would allow flexibility when it's time to get back under the threshold -- assuming the new CBA looks anything like the current one. I'm guessing there will be a half dozen or more relievers who I've never heard of that will be brought in to compete for spots.
Extend Kiké? I don't think Bogaerts or Devers gets extended this winter.
Late edit:
I would also re-sign Robles and maybe Ottavino. They clearly figured something out with Robles in a few short months and maybe they can find a higher ceiling in him with a full winter of work. A year plus a club option for a guy who has been a closer for two different teams. As for Ottavino, when he's good (i.e. good FB command), he's really good but I have a feeling he will find another taker for more money (he also expressed frustration with the high number of unvaccinated teammates, which could be a factor if he gets another offer).
Thanks for the memories JD -- I think he finds a 3-year deal elsewhere
Schwarber -- I don't think Chaim is the high-bidder on an offense-only guy
Santana Richards Perez Shaw
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Oct 24, 2021 12:27:03 GMT -5
This won't win any PR awards, but what are you getting for Bogaerts? Can the Sox deal with his defense another year? If you can add a couple top ten prospects to the system and sign one of the big time shortstops, that's enticing to me. Defense is much better and offense is going to be in the same ballpark. You've got Trea Turner on the market next year too. Could also move Bogey to the outfield and move Verdugo or Renfroe.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 12:38:34 GMT -5
I actually don't think people are doing this, really. The idea is to sell high on Renfroe or Dalbec (I'm more interested in doing that with the former than the latter); it's not the usual "our guy sucks so we should trade him for a bunch of valuable prospects" line. On Eduardo, I think the question is just whether you take ERA as gospel or not; those who do have been hating on him since May, those who don't have liked him all along. ^This. He had a big year but I think it will ultimately be more of a high-water mark than a new baseline (he turns 30 in January). He could bring back more than a lottery ticket with his two years of control remaining. I also am not as high on his defense as many in this room.
I'd like to give Bobby a little more rope. He showed that he can respond to coaching and I think there's more in there. I only trade him if there's a bottom-feeder willing to buy very high on him -- perhaps someone would gamble that they can either build around him or sell him for more if he breaks out into a Pete Alonso type in a couple years. Otherwise I keep him and maybe we'll have Alonso 2.0 in 2023. Casas is brimming with promise but Opening Day 2022 will be just his 10th AAA game. I'd rather wait to see if they both become big league monsters before moving one or the other.
Renfroe had a +1.2 dwar according to baseball reference in 2019. I know I seem like the biggest Renfroe supporter on here but I would be all for trading him under the right circumstances. And those circumstances would be when I think he brings back more of a return than what he provides, which I don't think he would at this point. I don't see any reason to believe that he doesn't hit just as well or better next season and plays better D. His value this year was approximately 15 million based on Fangraphs, at a cost of 3.1. If his D is closer to 2019 and he hits the same he is at least a 18m player. Is he going to return someone worth any where near that, I don't think so. I get it though, some think he is going to regress while I don't. IMO the Sox asked him to change his approach and it took him a month or so but he did it and was very very good good for most of the season. So I think he is even better next yr, both hitting and fielding. We shall see, I am done as president of the fan club, promise.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 24, 2021 12:38:57 GMT -5
This won't win any PR awards, but what are you getting for Bogaerts? Can the Sox deal with his defense another year? If you can add a couple top ten prospects to the system and sign one of the big time shortstops, that's enticing to me. Defense is much better and offense is going to be in the same ballpark. You've got Trea Turner on the market next year too. Could also move Bogey to the outfield and move Verdugo or Renfroe. I've had this thought too. It makes a troubling amount of sense and I really hope Bloom doesn't do it.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 12:58:14 GMT -5
This won't win any PR awards, but what are you getting for Bogaerts? Can the Sox deal with his defense another year? If you can add a couple top ten prospects to the system and sign one of the big time shortstops, that's enticing to me. Defense is much better and offense is going to be in the same ballpark. You've got Trea Turner on the market next year too. Could also move Bogey to the outfield and move Verdugo or Renfroe. I've had this thought too. It makes a troubling amount of sense and I really hope Bloom doesn't do it. It is a thought but do the Sox get a big return on X considering it is basically a 1 yr deal. I don't think so. And I don't think it would be worth the future value of X if he is still willing to stay in Boston at some level of discount. I think he will want a fair deal but not a max value one.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 24, 2021 13:01:00 GMT -5
Bogaerts last season is worth more to the Red Sox than any other team. They're contending right now and he plays a position they need.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 24, 2021 13:19:03 GMT -5
I have to give this subject a lot more thought overall, but my initial thinking is they need to resign ERod. I mean, first, if you don’t any starter you sign is merely replacing a starter… it won’t be a huge improvement. But secondly, all the FAs have big question marks.
I am a big Scherzer fan, but let’s face it… he’s thrown a LOT of pitches. Thor? Verlander? All those guys have higher ceilings but also seem like big risks. I’d love getting one… AFTER signing ERod.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 24, 2021 13:21:45 GMT -5
I've had this thought too. It makes a troubling amount of sense and I really hope Bloom doesn't do it. It is a thought but do the Sox get a big return on X considering it is basically a 1 yr deal. I don't think so. And I don't think it would be worth the future value of X if he is still willing to stay in Boston at some level of discount. I think he will want a fair deal but not a max value one. Mookie had one year of control left going into 2020...
But if Bogaerts would stay in Boston at a discount, then yes, that adds reason to keep him around. Their sense of his willingness to shift positions might be a factor as well. Would they be willing to ride out Bogaerts at SS for 3 more years until Mayer (hopefully) arrives?
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Oct 24, 2021 13:36:29 GMT -5
It is a thought but do the Sox get a big return on X considering it is basically a 1 yr deal. I don't think so. And I don't think it would be worth the future value of X if he is still willing to stay in Boston at some level of discount. I think he will want a fair deal but not a max value one. Mookie had one year of control left going into 2020...
But if Bogaerts would stay in Boston at a discount, then yes, that adds reason to keep him around. Their sense of his willingness to shift positions might be a factor as well. Would they be willing to ride out Bogaerts at SS for 3 more years until Mayer (hopefully) arrives?
They better not be. BTV has Bogey's median value at 32. That's getting you Yorke+Jimenez types or a pretty good young starter
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Oct 24, 2021 13:37:42 GMT -5
Bogaerts last season is worth more to the Red Sox than any other team. They're contending right now and he plays a position they need.This is my point. You'd sign Seager, Story or Correa to replace him. If they aren't willing to do that then yeah, they need him
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 13:38:34 GMT -5
I have to give this subject a lot more thought overall, but my initial thinking is they need to resign ERod. I mean, first, if you don’t any starter you sign is merely replacing a starter… it won’t be a huge improvement. But secondly, all the FAs have big question marks. I am a big Scherzer fan, but let’s face it… he’s thrown a LOT of pitches. Thor? Verlander? All those guys have higher ceilings but also seem like big risks. I’d love getting one… AFTER signing ERod. Agreed on the ERod thoughts, Scherzer is going to stay on the west coast anyway.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 13:55:06 GMT -5
Mookie had one year of control left going into 2020...
But if Bogaerts would stay in Boston at a discount, then yes, that adds reason to keep him around. Their sense of his willingness to shift positions might be a factor as well. Would they be willing to ride out Bogaerts at SS for 3 more years until Mayer (hopefully) arrives?
They better not be. BTV has Bogey's median value at 32. That's getting you Yorke+Jimenez types or a pretty good young starter Lets look at that from above. A team could just sign an expensive FA SS from this years market or they could give up some top level talent and get an expensive SS. Which one makes more sense? I think those other guys being available this year make it a different scenario. And then how many teams would even be in a position to pay a SS top level money, it is a small market. Lots of moving parts for us to try and discuss this. Would he move off SS willingly, will he take a discount, does his D regress?? Who knows.
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Post by jmei on Oct 24, 2021 14:19:31 GMT -5
It is a thought but do the Sox get a big return on X considering it is basically a 1 yr deal. I don't think so. And I don't think it would be worth the future value of X if he is still willing to stay in Boston at some level of discount. I think he will want a fair deal but not a max value one. Mookie had one year of control left going into 2020... But if Bogaerts would stay in Boston at a discount, then yes, that adds reason to keep him around. Their sense of his willingness to shift positions might be a factor as well. Would they be willing to ride out Bogaerts at SS for 3 more years until Mayer (hopefully) arrives?
The Red Sox weren’t a contending team going into 2020. They are now. That changes their mindset significantly.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 24, 2021 14:20:14 GMT -5
Bogaerts last season is worth more to the Red Sox than any other team. They're contending right now and he plays a position they need.This is my point. You'd sign Seager, Story or Correa to replace him. If they aren't willing to do that then yeah, they need him If they've signed Carlos Correa, Bogaerts is still worth more to the Red Sox than other teams. You don't want to pencil Christian Arroyo in as an opening day starter.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 24, 2021 14:27:41 GMT -5
That said, teams sometimes lose their minds trading for short term returns. Despite being a contender, I wouldn't exactly have been mad if the Red Sox were the ones to trade Criag Kimbrel for Nick Madrigal this season.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 24, 2021 14:36:21 GMT -5
Put on the trade block; Nathan Eovaldi - Sell high before free agency Christian Arroyo - If Jeter Downs is ready Xander Bogaerts - Sell high before opting out Bobby Dalbec - To add in any trade for better prospects Enrique Hernandez - Extend or trade, sell high before free agency Hunter Renfroe - Sell high J.D. Martinez - If he doesn't optout Extend; Devers So are you a Yankee fan or a Rays fan? Nutty is nuts! Let’s gut the team and compete with the Pirates and Orioles for the worst record.
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