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What 2021-22 Free Agents Do You Want
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Post by Guidas on Oct 24, 2021 15:05:40 GMT -5
This won't win any PR awards, but what are you getting for Bogaerts? Can the Sox deal with his defense another year? If you can add a couple top ten prospects to the system and sign one of the big time shortstops, that's enticing to me. Defense is much better and offense is going to be in the same ballpark. You've got Trea Turner on the market next year too. Could also move Bogey to the outfield and move Verdugo or Renfroe. I keep hearing about Bogaerts's defense but by both FanGraphs (dWAR 7.7 UZR/150 2.3) and BRef (dWAR 0.3 lgRFG 3.72) he's doing pretty well. For comparison, Correa's numbers: (dWAR 9.6 UZR/150 3.1) (dWAR 2.9 lgRFG 3.72), and Corey Seagar (dWAR 0.8 UZR/150 -14.1) (dWAR 0.5 lgRFG 3.74). Bogaerts is also a fWAR 5.2/4.9 bWAR player. I mean, what/who do you want instead? Reading a lot of people here, you'd think Bogaerts's defense is akin to Jeter in his last five years.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 24, 2021 16:07:47 GMT -5
This won't win any PR awards, but what are you getting for Bogaerts? Can the Sox deal with his defense another year? If you can add a couple top ten prospects to the system and sign one of the big time shortstops, that's enticing to me. Defense is much better and offense is going to be in the same ballpark. You've got Trea Turner on the market next year too. Could also move Bogey to the outfield and move Verdugo or Renfroe. I keep hearing about Bogaerts's defense but by both FanGraphs (dWAR 7.7 UZR/150 2.3) and BRef (dWAR 0.3 lgRFG 3.72) he's doing pretty well. For comparison, Correa's numbers: (dWAR 9.6 UZR/150 3.1) (dWAR 2.9 lgRFG 3.72), and Corey Seagar (dWAR 0.8 UZR/150 -14.1) (dWAR 0.5 lgRFG 3.74). Bogaerts is also a fWAR 5.2/4.9 bWAR player. I mean, what/who do you want instead? Reading a lot of people here, you'd think Bogaerts's defense is akin to Jeter in his last five years. It really is bad, Statcast has him consistently below average: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaerts-593428?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlbThis year only 7 players in baseball has more than -10 OAA (one of them being Devers).
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Post by trajanacc on Oct 24, 2021 16:15:22 GMT -5
Doesn’t the whole proposition of “selling high” on someone directly assume that we know more and can make better valuations than the MLB front office who is doing the buying?
Like, we wanna trade Renfroe because even though he hit 30 HR on a good contract, we know he’s got a lot of flaws and might have had his best year. Front offices are going to know that plus have way more data on him than we do and be able to make a much better valuation.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 24, 2021 16:47:07 GMT -5
I keep hearing about Bogaerts's defense but by both FanGraphs (dWAR 7.7 UZR/150 2.3) and BRef (dWAR 0.3 lgRFG 3.72) he's doing pretty well. For comparison, Correa's numbers: (dWAR 9.6 UZR/150 3.1) (dWAR 2.9 lgRFG 3.72), and Corey Seagar (dWAR 0.8 UZR/150 -14.1) (dWAR 0.5 lgRFG 3.74). Bogaerts is also a fWAR 5.2/4.9 bWAR player. I mean, what/who do you want instead? Reading a lot of people here, you'd think Bogaerts's defense is akin to Jeter in his last five years. It really is bad, Statcast has him consistently below average: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaerts-593428?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlbThis year only 7 players in baseball has more than -10 OAA (one of them being Devers). This is why I think you move Bogie to 3B, where his strength coming in on the ball and making plays on atom balls would fit well and his lack of range wouldn't hurt as much. Move Devers to DH most of the time. Arroyo at 2B, Iggy at SS. Much better IF defense at a very low cost (basically re-signing Iggy).
Would Bogie and Devers love it? Probably not. Moving them down the position scale diminishes their open-market value, so you risk reducing their desire to re-sign or extend but is that worth keeping them at positions where they hurt the team?
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Post by incandenza on Oct 24, 2021 17:13:37 GMT -5
Doesn’t the whole proposition of “selling high” on someone directly assume that we know more and can make better valuations than the MLB front office who is doing the buying? Like, we wanna trade Renfroe because even though he hit 30 HR on a good contract, we know he’s got a lot of flaws and might have had his best year. Front offices are going to know that plus have way more data on him than we do and be able to make a much better valuation. That's kind of what we do whenever we issue an opinion on any move that teams make, no?
But also, "selling high" doesn't have to be in the same sense as like a speculative stock trader. Renfroe's value is simply higher than it was a year ago, and it's also higher now than it will be a year from now (more years of control, cheaper, younger). So if you think the team can build a better outfield with a different piece, then you'd want to "sell high" on Renfroe to another team where he's a better fit.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 17:54:56 GMT -5
I keep hearing about Bogaerts's defense but by both FanGraphs (dWAR 7.7 UZR/150 2.3) and BRef (dWAR 0.3 lgRFG 3.72) he's doing pretty well. For comparison, Correa's numbers: (dWAR 9.6 UZR/150 3.1) (dWAR 2.9 lgRFG 3.72), and Corey Seagar (dWAR 0.8 UZR/150 -14.1) (dWAR 0.5 lgRFG 3.74). Bogaerts is also a fWAR 5.2/4.9 bWAR player. I mean, what/who do you want instead? Reading a lot of people here, you'd think Bogaerts's defense is akin to Jeter in his last five years. It really is bad, Statcast has him consistently below average: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaerts-593428?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlbThis year only 7 players in baseball has more than -10 OAA (one of them being Devers). That metric had Mookie at -1 and Renfroe at -2
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 24, 2021 19:17:49 GMT -5
I'd love to see Kris Bryant signed for LF and I'd like Raisel Iglesias signed to close.
From what I'm reading it sounds likely JDM is coming back, but I'd still also like Schwarber re-signed. I would guess that E-Rod re-signs.
My guess is that the Sox will bring back E-Rod and Schwarber, but will not be spending any significant free agents beyond them so I don't see Bryant or Raisel Iglesias being signed.
I think the Sox could bring back Jose Iglesias though.
I do think the Sox will bring in a mid tier reliever to replace Ottavino, perhaps somebody they think can close even if the pitcher is not a closer.
Richards and Perez mercifully won't be back.
They will do the bargain basement thing to fill out the rotation depth behind Eovaldi, Sale, a re-signed E-Rod, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, and Seabold. Wouldn't be shocked if Pivetta wound up the closer ultimately.
Other teams will make bigger splashes. Already read that the Yankees will go after Seager or Correa and will go after Robbie Ray.
Bloom will value shop. He'll save the bug bucks to extend either X or Devers down the road. I don't expect any huge free agent signing for a few years.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 24, 2021 19:26:05 GMT -5
I keep hearing about Bogaerts's defense but by both FanGraphs (dWAR 7.7 UZR/150 2.3) and BRef (dWAR 0.3 lgRFG 3.72) he's doing pretty well. For comparison, Correa's numbers: (dWAR 9.6 UZR/150 3.1) (dWAR 2.9 lgRFG 3.72), and Corey Seagar (dWAR 0.8 UZR/150 -14.1) (dWAR 0.5 lgRFG 3.74). Bogaerts is also a fWAR 5.2/4.9 bWAR player. I mean, what/who do you want instead? Reading a lot of people here, you'd think Bogaerts's defense is akin to Jeter in his last five years. It really is bad, Statcast has him consistently below average: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaerts-593428?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlbThis year only 7 players in baseball has more than -10 OAA (one of them being Devers). I know the defensive stats are bad, but they're also baked into WAR, right? So it's not that Bogaerts is worth five wins minus bad defense, he's worth five wins despite the bad defense. Perhaps the front office thinks his defensive profile is likely to deteriorate further and is planning on replacing him at SS, but I'm not moving him off the position unless they get a really good replacement - certainly not for somebody like Jose Iglesias.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 24, 2021 19:28:28 GMT -5
I am hoping Schwarber will be back.
I am 50-50 on ERod, sign him if the price is right but I wouldn't give him Eovaldi money. If not him then a mid rotation bargain.
I also want Santana, Perez and Richards replaced.
Sign a reliever or two but I wouldn't want a big bucks closer.
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art
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Post by art on Oct 24, 2021 19:58:13 GMT -5
That metric had Mookie at -1 and Renfroe at -2 I haven't seen this metric before, but it looks to me like it only accounts for reaching batted balls and does not take throwing into account.
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Oct 24, 2021 20:27:43 GMT -5
Bloom will value shop. He'll save the bug bucks to extend either X or Devers down the road. I don't expect any huge free agent signing for a few years. I think this is probably right. Let's hpe he can bring some of that Tampa Bay magic to the hunt for unknown but amazing bullpen arms.
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Post by Canseco on Oct 24, 2021 21:03:08 GMT -5
If JD opts out, try to work out a deal with Schwarber. If JD opts in, we need to spread out our investments for better defensive and bullpen depth.
Re-sign Eduardo Rodriguez and Jose Iglesias.
Extending Devers would be one of my big priorities, too, so let's not spend too hastily on a big dollar free agent.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 24, 2021 21:16:29 GMT -5
So are you a Yankee fan or a Rays fan? Nutty is nuts! Let’s gut the team and compete with the Pirates and Orioles for the worst record. What you're forgetting is the chance for the top draft pick...😊
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 24, 2021 21:19:28 GMT -5
Fun fact Jon Gray is a ghost hunter. Do with that what you will.
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Post by manfred on Oct 24, 2021 23:11:53 GMT -5
Why are people big on Iglesias? He is not a great hitter and has declined defensively. I loved what he did in his brief stay, but I am not sure he needs to be reupped.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 24, 2021 23:29:55 GMT -5
Nutty is nuts! Let’s gut the team and compete with the Pirates and Orioles for the worst record. What you're forgetting is the chance for the top draft pick...😊 Been there, done that, got the SS...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 24, 2021 23:53:57 GMT -5
Why are people big on Iglesias? He is not a great hitter and has declined defensively. I loved what he did in his brief stay, but I am not sure he needs to be reupped. He'll be cheap, he's a good fit in the clubhouse, he taught Arroyo how to bunt, and I believe that he'll get back to playing better defense. He admitted to feeling unmotivated and going through the motions the last couple years with BAL and LAA and found a new lease on his baseball life returning to Fenway. I would say sticking around to push the laundry cart (and being allowed to) even though he couldn't play, fits in with that claim. He also made some pretty amazing plays in his 23 games, mostly at 2B after playing a total of 12 innings there in his career prior to that.
When they brought him back, I was skeptical because of how immature he was when he left the first time. I think he has come to grips with his baseball mortality and would relish the opportunity to play before packed, passionate houses again and that this shows up in his play. He'll be 32 in January, so he should still have a year or two left in him while we wait for Marcelo to climb the ladder. The money that they wouldn't spend on one of the pricey SS FAs could be directed elsewhere.
That's why I'm big on Iglesias but I can't speak for the others.
EDIT: The underlying reason is that the Sox had one of the worst infield defenses in MLB by many measures (including turning ground balls into outs) and lost a lot of winnable games because of it. Improving the infield defense should be a priority and Iglesias could be a cheap and easy short-term fix on a one-year plus club option deal.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Oct 25, 2021 5:00:43 GMT -5
So are you a Yankee fan or a Rays fan? NO
I can see what's ahead and the value that we can get for several of the players that I mention. we can get major league ready players plus prospects.
Most of you think this team will perform at the same level next season, they may be for a shock.
That's time to get good players major league ready and top prospects with the right trades, than we start fill the needs that are left.
Just remember that we have several prospects ready in the next 2 years, so we need to set things up for them to made the jump to the majors and still WIN.
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 25, 2021 6:48:14 GMT -5
Why are people big on Iglesias? He is not a great hitter and has declined defensively. I loved what he did in his brief stay, but I am not sure he needs to be reupped. I'm really on the fence when it comes to resigning Iglesias. He was a FANTASTIC pickup who contributed on the field (.915 OPS) and in the clubhose (laundry cart conductor). When asked why his defense was lacking with the Angels he basically answered "I couldn't be bothered, we weren going anywhere" (I'm exaggerating)...that's not really the attitude you are looking for. I think we need someone to complement Kikè, so either a CF or 2B or UT. Iglesias would fall in the latter two categories. From what I have seen in his games as a member of the RS "slick fielding" still applies. Statcast has him at an average defender at SS and 2B over the season. Other stats hate his defense. So what can you reasonably expect of him? -He is a career .700 OPS guy with, with -average defense in the middle infield, -has some flexibility (played 2B/SS/3B in the past) and -he is consistent (from 2014 till 2020 his lowest fWAR was 1.4) ...there is certainly value in that, you can make a case that he has been consistently undervalued. The only thing he lacks is "upside"...and I like upside. If you can get him for 2 years (or 1+option) at a resonable price, sure... Kind of makes you wonder what Arroyo's role would be though...when healthy he brings nice defense and had some key hits, but his expected stats also suggest that his bat is not that good, combine that with the personal doom cloud following him around...
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 25, 2021 7:07:34 GMT -5
So are you a Yankee fan or a Rays fan? NO I can see what's ahead and the value that we can get for several of the players that I mention. we can get major league ready players plus prospects. Most of you think this team will perform at the same level next season, they may be for a shock. That's time to get good players major league ready and top prospects with the right trades, than we start fill the needs that are left. Just remember that we have several prospects ready in the next 2 years, so we need to set things up for them to made the jump to the majors and still WIN. This is an even nuttier take. You are pushing the strategy of gutting a team that was 2 games away from the WS because you think they won't perform at the same level next year. A team that is not old, didn't have the real Chris Sale and has stayed under the cap for 2 years. All to make way for a bunch of prospects that have yet to prove anything beyond double AA and are a few years away from making their debuts. Now I agree with the others who mentioned competing with the Pirates of the league. How about instead of that the Sox make some shrewd moves to add to that team and stay competitive while those young guys slowly and with little pressure are added to the major league team over the next 3 yrs. Or without effecting the long term plan go over the cap, sign some guys who will really improve the roster next year. Knowing that their will be significant contracts coming off the books after next yr and maintain some flexibility all while "going all in" for a season or longer by using their big market budget advantage. Both of those strategies seem just a little better than blowing it up to load up on prospects, the Sox aren't TBay.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 25, 2021 7:22:59 GMT -5
Why are people big on Iglesias? He is not a great hitter and has declined defensively. I loved what he did in his brief stay, but I am not sure he needs to be reupped. I'm really on the fence when it comes to resigning Iglesias. He was a FANTASTIC pickup who contributed on the field (.915 OPS) and in the clubhose (laundry cart conductor). When asked why his defense was lacking with the Angels he basically answered "I couldn't be bothered, we weren going anywhere" (I'm exaggerating)...that's not really the attitude you are looking for. I think we need someone to complement Kikè, so either a CF or 2B or UT. Iglesias would fall in the latter two categories. From what I have seen in his games as a member of the RS "slick fielding" still applies. Statcast has him at an average defender at SS and 2B over the season. Other stats hate his defense. So what can you reasonably expect of him? -He is a career .700 OPS guy with, with -average defense in the middle infield, -has some flexibility (played 2B/SS/3B in the past) and -he is consistent (from 2014 till 2020 his lowest fWAR was 1.4) ...there is certainly value in that, you can make a case that he has been consistently undervalued. The only thing he lacks is "upside"...and I like upside. If you can get him for 2 years (or 1+option) at a resonable price, sure... Kind of makes you wonder what Arroyo's role would be though...when healthy he brings nice defense and had some key hits, but his expected stats also suggest that his bat is not that good, combine that with the personal doom cloud following him around... I agree with all of this!! And I think he would sign a very team friendly deal knowing his days of starting for a front line team are over. I don't think their is a place he would rather be than Boston next year. Although his comment about not being motivated is concerning I do understand it. It is a fine line between being good or not so good at that level so it doesn't take much to regress. Just one play every couple of weeks is enough to make that skew the stats, just like 1 hit a week is the difference between an all star and an average player.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 25, 2021 8:08:30 GMT -5
So are you a Yankee fan or a Rays fan? NO I can see what's ahead and the value that we can get for several of the players that I mention. we can get major league ready players plus prospects. Most of you think this team will perform at the same level next season, they may be for a shock. That's time to get good players major league ready and top prospects with the right trades, than we start fill the needs that are left. Just remember that we have several prospects ready in the next 2 years, so we need to set things up for them to made the jump to the majors and still WIN. I beg to differ on both points. Most of us lived through 2013 and saw how a team almost exactly like this can fail. There's lots of potential (healthy Sale and Eovaldi a solid core with Devers and Bogaerts and a fading but still effective JD and a decent OF with Verdugo, Kiké and Renfroe, and Dalbec putting it together from early August through to the playoffs). But Kiké and Renfroe had career years and could regress, Dalbec could stall and a bunch of other things could go wrong. That's why this team, while good needs to get better now with several over 30 guys in place for a year or two more. As to your second point, I see two to three who could be average or above average MLB players within that time frame: Casas, Duran (maybe - although he significantly struggled against MLB pitching) and perhaps Groome. Yorke could be 2.5 to 3 years, or he could faceplant when he gets to AA/AAA or even MLB. Mayer probably a legit 3-5 years away, if he lives up to the hype. The minors are littered with guys like him and Yorke who looked like sure things until they got to AAA or MLB. We really can do much more than wait for guys in A Ball to see how they adjust. But there are no near all stars in the waiting in AAA, no Wander Franco-type. There's no one in AAA or AA in the Sox system who profiles at that level. Don't get me wrong, they have some nice pieces, but we're talking potential average or above MLB average guys, at least right now.
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Post by manfred on Oct 25, 2021 8:46:11 GMT -5
I'm really on the fence when it comes to resigning Iglesias. He was a FANTASTIC pickup who contributed on the field (.915 OPS) and in the clubhose (laundry cart conductor). When asked why his defense was lacking with the Angels he basically answered "I couldn't be bothered, we weren going anywhere" (I'm exaggerating)...that's not really the attitude you are looking for. I think we need someone to complement Kikè, so either a CF or 2B or UT. Iglesias would fall in the latter two categories. From what I have seen in his games as a member of the RS "slick fielding" still applies. Statcast has him at an average defender at SS and 2B over the season. Other stats hate his defense. So what can you reasonably expect of him? -He is a career .700 OPS guy with, with -average defense in the middle infield, -has some flexibility (played 2B/SS/3B in the past) and -he is consistent (from 2014 till 2020 his lowest fWAR was 1.4) ...there is certainly value in that, you can make a case that he has been consistently undervalued. The only thing he lacks is "upside"...and I like upside. If you can get him for 2 years (or 1+option) at a resonable price, sure... Kind of makes you wonder what Arroyo's role would be though...when healthy he brings nice defense and had some key hits, but his expected stats also suggest that his bat is not that good, combine that with the personal doom cloud following him around... I agree with all of this!! And I think he would sign a very team friendly deal knowing his days of starting for a front line team are over. I don't think their is a place he would rather be than Boston next year. Although his comment about not being motivated is concerning I do understand it. It is a fine line between being good or not so good at that level so it doesn't take much to regress. Just one play every couple of weeks is enough to make that skew the stats, just like 1 hit a week is the difference between an all star and an average player. I’m fine with him as a utility guy if he is paid like one. I like him… I just don’t want to spend much on him!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 25, 2021 9:43:39 GMT -5
So are you a Yankee fan or a Rays fan? NO I can see what's ahead and the value that we can get for several of the players that I mention. we can get major league ready players plus prospects. Most of you think this team will perform at the same level next season, they may be for a shock. That's time to get good players major league ready and top prospects with the right trades, than we start fill the needs that are left. Just remember that we have several prospects ready in the next 2 years, so we need to set things up for them to made the jump to the majors and still WIN. I beg to differ on both points. Most of us lived through 2013 and saw how a team almost exactly like this can fail. There's lots of potential (healthy Sale and Eovaldi a solid core with Devers and Bogaerts and a fading but still effective JD and a decent OF with Verdugo, Kiké and Renfroe, and Dalbec putting it together from early August through to the playoffs). But Kiké and Renfroe had career years and could regress, Dalbec could stall and a bunch of other things could go wrong. That's why this team, while good needs to get better now with several over 30 guys in place for a year or two more. As to your second point, I see two to three who could be average or above average MLB players within that time frame: Casas, Duran (maybe - although he significantly struggled against MLB pitching) and perhaps Groome. Yorke could be 2.5 to 3 years, or he could faceplant when he gets to AA/AAA or even MLB. Mayer probably a legit 3-5 years away, if he lives up to the hype. The minors are littered with guys like him and Yorke who looked like sure things until they got to AAA or MLB. We really can do much more than wait for guys in A Ball to see how they adjust. But there are no near all stars in the waiting in AAA, no Wander Franco-type. There's no one in AAA or AA in the Sox system who profiles at that level. Don't get me wrong, they have some nice pieces, but we're talking potential average or above MLB average guys, at least right now. I think Nutty is being over the top but the gist of what he says make some sense. If he's advocating blowing it up and doing all of the above, then yeah, that's nutty. But some of the stuff he puts as options are things I can see Bloom doing. Would he do it all. No freaking way. Doubt there's a desire to see them go 70-92. I also agree that what happened in 2021 might well not happen in 2022. It wouldn't surprise me either if Tampa and Toronto are clearly better in 2022 and they're vying for that second wild card with the Yankees who might finally break open the vault this offseason if what I'm reading is true. I'm not under the assumption that if the Sox do a tweak here and there and run everything back, they'll be right back in the ALCS in 2022, so I agree with nutty on that assessment. I think Bloom will make a trade or two. I can see a Dalbec or a Renfroe getting dealt for some pitching depth, somebody who can fit a rotation or be a reliable bulk guy or even a back end high leverage reliever. Same with JDM, if he opts in and Schwarber is re-signed. I wouldn't be shocked if Bloom traded an Eovaldi or a Bogaerts if he was under the assumption that Bogaerts is opting out and taking off for greener pastures. While I think X will opt out, there could still be a palatable deal to be had. And he wouldn't trade Eovaldi unless he was getting back a major league ready arm about to bust out. He wouldn't make that deal for a guy that helps 2 or 3 years later. But honestly I don't see the likeihood of Eovaldi being traded before the season. If the Sox are struggling come 7/31, then yes, they could very well go down that laundry list nuttysox suggested, but they're not going to do more than one or two of those moves prior to the season. I think a lot of the options that Nutty put down are reasonable as a single course of action, but if any of those steps are done it'll be done in a way to keep them competitive now and given them something for the future. What Bloom won't do is do all of those moves or most of those moves because he's not going to torpedo the team. My guess is the Yankees will get the headlines for the big splash moves and Bloom will continue to operate at the margins and will execute low profile moves and makes moves that subtracts some established talent for younger more efficient talent that could become a steal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 25, 2021 9:56:02 GMT -5
I could be wrong but if Bloom isn't making some major splash then I think he's likely to stick with Arroyo at 2b. Of course if you do that, you need strong backup so I think bringing back Iglesias makes sense.
I think his options are being a second division regular or being a backup with the Sox. Normally a player would chase the money and do the former, but it seems that Iglesias did that last year and did not enjoy it. I don't think he was "not trying" with the Angels but it sounded like he felt like he was going through the motions of it and did not enjoy it. I think he felt that coming back to Boston was a godsend to him, even if he doesn't play regularly and with Arroyo penciled in as a regular there's plenty of reason to think that Iglesias could get 350 ABs or more, so I would think that staying with the Sox would be something he'd like to do for a reasonable amount of $.
If not, then the Sox can find a utility man, I'm sure, but Iglesias would fit the bill. Bet his defense at 2b would be great and he'd even be better at SS than Bogaerts, even if the numbers for Iglesias at SS were terrible last year. I just think Iglesias finds Boston to be a good fit and it certainly perked up his game last season and it's possible the feeling is mutual.
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