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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 29, 2021 13:16:25 GMT -5
Hahahahaha
OK OK LOL Just for the fun of it. I have battled on here way too much in support of the year that Hunter Renfroe had for the Sox. Some here have even questioned whether he deserved a full time job in right or not. It has been an endless battle with at least half the board, on and on.
Now I'm not going to argue that he will win any award nor does he deserve to. BUT being named a finalist for both Silver Slugger and Gold Glove should at the least put to bed whether he was good or didn't deserve the job in RF.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 29, 2021 13:37:12 GMT -5
Hahahahaha OK OK LOL Just for the fun of it. I have battled on here way too much in support of the year that Hunter Renfroe had for the Sox. Some here have even questioned whether he deserved a full time job in right or not. It has been an endless battle with at least half the board, on and on. Now I'm not going to argue that he will win any award nor does he deserve to. BUT being named a finalist for both Silver Slugger and Gold Glove should at the least put to bed whether he was good or didn't deserve the job in RF. Kyle Seager was named a finalist for silver slugger. He had a .285 OBP (99 wRC+). Joey Gallo was named as a finalist for silver slugger - at DH. He didn't even play DH. He also had a BA of .199.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 29, 2021 13:48:54 GMT -5
Renfroe is gold as far as I'm concerned. I, however, am not sold on how good he will be going forward. He had a career year at 29, can he replicate that? or will his tenure in Boston look more like Shane Victorino with one good year and then regression.
He hit RHP much better in 2021, if that holds, he will still be of starting caliber in 2022 with good D. He's bound to get a nice raise in Arbitration but he will still be a reasonably priced platoon/4th outfielder if he regresses and if he doesn't....Awesome.
I think it's important to make that distinction though because in the next year or two the Sox are going to need serious help in the outfield and I'm not sure Duran is the answer. These things tend to work themselves out. I remember a time when the Sox outfield outlook looked very weak and all of a sudden a guy named Mookie moved out there....Many dances later a different story was told.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 29, 2021 14:35:51 GMT -5
Hahahahaha OK OK LOL Just for the fun of it. I have battled on here way too much in support of the year that Hunter Renfroe had for the Sox. Some here have even questioned whether he deserved a full time job in right or not. It has been an endless battle with at least half the board, on and on. Now I'm not going to argue that he will win any award nor does he deserve to. BUT being named a finalist for both Silver Slugger and Gold Glove should at the least put to bed whether he was good or didn't deserve the job in RF. I dont think anyone on here would dispute renfroe was a great value this year and thus a great move by Bloom. He definitely proved to deserve the RF spot but I think it's fair to question whether he can do it again next year and that it could be a very good time to sell high on him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 29, 2021 15:23:54 GMT -5
Renfroe is gold as far as I'm concerned. I, however, am not sold on how good he will be going forward. He had a career year at 29, can he replicate that? or will his tenure in Boston look more like Shane Victorino with one good year and then regression. He hit RHP much better in 2021, if that holds, he will still be of starting caliber in 2022 with good D. He's bound to get a nice raise in Arbitration but he will still be a reasonably priced platoon/4th outfielder if he regresses and if he doesn't....Awesome. I think it's important to make that distinction though because in the next year or two the Sox are going to need serious help in the outfield and I'm not sure Duran is the answer. These things tend to work themselves out. I remember a time when the Sox outfield outlook looked very weak and all of a sudden a guy named Mookie moved out there....Many dances later a different story was told. In 2019 Renfroe had a +1.2 dwar per BR, so he has been better in the field. Would it be a surprise if he learns to play Fenway better and his D is positive again. How many runs does he save with that arm? I am predicting a better season both at the plate and in right. He progressed this year in his approach and his barrel rate and hard hit% were very good. Especially considering it took him a long time to get going and even longer before the power showed up. Either way he is a great get for the cost and he will greatly exceed his cost/value again next year. Or he will get you something good in a trade but I just don't see that. I guess they could sign Schwarber and move Duggy back to right.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 29, 2021 15:25:45 GMT -5
Hahahahaha OK OK LOL Just for the fun of it. I have battled on here way too much in support of the year that Hunter Renfroe had for the Sox. Some here have even questioned whether he deserved a full time job in right or not. It has been an endless battle with at least half the board, on and on. Now I'm not going to argue that he will win any award nor does he deserve to. BUT being named a finalist for both Silver Slugger and Gold Glove should at the least put to bed whether he was good or didn't deserve the job in RF. I dont think anyone on here would dispute renfroe was a great value this year and thus a great move by Bloom. He definitely proved to deserve the RF spot but I think it's fair to question whether he can do it again next year and that it could be a very good time to sell high on him. Tell incandeza that.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 29, 2021 15:28:33 GMT -5
I dont think anyone on here would dispute renfroe was a great value this year and thus a great move by Bloom. He definitely proved to deserve the RF spot but I think it's fair to question whether he can do it again next year and that it could be a very good time to sell high on him. Tell incandeza that. Nah, I think ill stay out of that haha. I'll amend to say most of us on here won't dispute it rather than nobody.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 29, 2021 15:32:48 GMT -5
Renfroe is gold as far as I'm concerned. I, however, am not sold on how good he will be going forward. He had a career year at 29, can he replicate that? or will his tenure in Boston look more like Shane Victorino with one good year and then regression. He hit RHP much better in 2021, if that holds, he will still be of starting caliber in 2022 with good D. He's bound to get a nice raise in Arbitration but he will still be a reasonably priced platoon/4th outfielder if he regresses and if he doesn't....Awesome. I think it's important to make that distinction though because in the next year or two the Sox are going to need serious help in the outfield and I'm not sure Duran is the answer. These things tend to work themselves out. I remember a time when the Sox outfield outlook looked very weak and all of a sudden a guy named Mookie moved out there....Many dances later a different story was told. In 2019 Renfroe had a +1.2 dwar per BR, so he has been better in the field. Would it be a surprise if he learns to play Fenway better and his D is positive again. How many runs does he save with that arm? I am predicting a better season both at the plate and in right. He progressed this year in his approach and his barrel rate and hard hit% were very good. Especially considering it took him a long time to get going and even longer before the power showed up. Either way he is a great get for the cost and he will greatly exceed his cost/value again next year. Or he will get you something good in a trade but I just don't see that. I guess they could sign Schwarber and move Duggy back to right. What's the relevance of citing his career year defensively though? He looked like that at times this year too, but overall he was average at best according to OAA, DRS, and UZR (and the value of his arm is incorporated into those metrics). He's just inconsistent, and in his career it seems that 2019 is the only season he managed not to be.
ADD: But I do get the case for being optimistic about him. If you think he put it together at the plate in a sustainable way, then maybe he will be the hitter we saw over the last few months of the season. And he seems to have defensive upside, based on what we saw in the first couple of months. I myself would project him to be about average going forward, but even if he's just that, it's a good deal for $7 million or whatever. For that very reason, though, his potential trade value intrigues me, if it would allow the roster to be improved overall (e.g., by signing Schwarber and moving Verdugo back to RF).
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Post by incandenza on Oct 29, 2021 15:33:55 GMT -5
I dont think anyone on here would dispute renfroe was a great value this year and thus a great move by Bloom. He definitely proved to deserve the RF spot but I think it's fair to question whether he can do it again next year and that it could be a very good time to sell high on him. Tell incandeza that. I have literally said the bolded part pretty much verbatim.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 29, 2021 16:09:29 GMT -5
Renfroe is gold as far as I'm concerned. I, however, am not sold on how good he will be going forward. He had a career year at 29, can he replicate that? or will his tenure in Boston look more like Shane Victorino with one good year and then regression. He hit RHP much better in 2021, if that holds, he will still be of starting caliber in 2022 with good D. He's bound to get a nice raise in Arbitration but he will still be a reasonably priced platoon/4th outfielder if he regresses and if he doesn't....Awesome. I think it's important to make that distinction though because in the next year or two the Sox are going to need serious help in the outfield and I'm not sure Duran is the answer. These things tend to work themselves out. I remember a time when the Sox outfield outlook looked very weak and all of a sudden a guy named Mookie moved out there....Many dances later a different story was told. In 2019 Renfroe had a +1.2 dwar per BR, so he has been better in the field. Would it be a surprise if he learns to play Fenway better and his D is positive again. How many runs does he save with that arm? I am predicting a better season both at the plate and in right. He progressed this year in his approach and his barrel rate and hard hit% were very good. Especially considering it took him a long time to get going and even longer before the power showed up. Either way he is a great get for the cost and he will greatly exceed his cost/value again next year. Or he will get you something good in a trade but I just don't see that. I guess they could sign Schwarber and move Duggy back to right. That's a very optimistic take, that his offense and defense improve. He just had his best offensive season of his career by both Fangraphs and Baseball Refrence. 2019 looks like a fluke given all the other years. He basically made no mistakes, yet he didn't do that the two years before or the two years after. Maybe he improves or maybe given how tricky fenway can be in the OF he's just going to commit more errors. How in the world did he snag a GG nomination? Blows my mind. At best you can call him an average defender. You never know Baseball is the most unpredictable sport, I just wouldn't count of him improving both given his career stats. I'm not trading him, I don't get that. Yet I'm for sure adding insurance in case his bat from 2019 and 2020 shows up.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 29, 2021 16:31:57 GMT -5
In 2019 Renfroe had a +1.2 dwar per BR, so he has been better in the field. Would it be a surprise if he learns to play Fenway better and his D is positive again. How many runs does he save with that arm? I am predicting a better season both at the plate and in right. He progressed this year in his approach and his barrel rate and hard hit% were very good. Especially considering it took him a long time to get going and even longer before the power showed up. Either way he is a great get for the cost and he will greatly exceed his cost/value again next year. Or he will get you something good in a trade but I just don't see that. I guess they could sign Schwarber and move Duggy back to right. That's a very optimistic take, that his offense and defense improve. He just had his best offensive season of his career by both Fangraphs and Baseball Refrence. 2019 looks like a fluke given all the other years. He basically made no mistakes, yet he didn't do that the two years before or the two years after. Maybe he improves or maybe given how tricky fenway can be in the OF he's just going to commit more errors. How in the world did he snag a GG nomination? Blows my mind. At best you can call him an average defender. You never know Baseball is the most unpredictable sport, I just wouldn't count of him improving both given his career stats. I'm not trading him, I don't get that. Yet I'm for sure adding insurance in case his bat from 2019 and 2020 shows up. As he tied for the major league lead with 16 outfield assists and played for a winning team...I don't think there was much thinking past that. He also tied for the MLB lead (for OFers) with 6 throwing errors and lead MLB in OF fielding errors with 6. Very give and take. I'd like to see Bloom trade Renfroe or Verdugo for SP/RP help with the other handling RF. (presumably Schwarber, Xander or Devers in LF)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 29, 2021 16:39:30 GMT -5
Renfroe is gold as far as I'm concerned. I, however, am not sold on how good he will be going forward. He had a career year at 29, can he replicate that? or will his tenure in Boston look more like Shane Victorino with one good year and then regression. He hit RHP much better in 2021, if that holds, he will still be of starting caliber in 2022 with good D. He's bound to get a nice raise in Arbitration but he will still be a reasonably priced platoon/4th outfielder if he regresses and if he doesn't....Awesome. I think it's important to make that distinction though because in the next year or two the Sox are going to need serious help in the outfield and I'm not sure Duran is the answer. These things tend to work themselves out. I remember a time when the Sox outfield outlook looked very weak and all of a sudden a guy named Mookie moved out there....Many dances later a different story was told. In 2019 Renfroe had a +1.2 dwar per BR, so he has been better in the field. Would it be a surprise if he learns to play Fenway better and his D is positive again. How many runs does he save with that arm? I am predicting a better season both at the plate and in right. He progressed this year in his approach and his barrel rate and hard hit% were very good. Especially considering it took him a long time to get going and even longer before the power showed up. Either way he is a great get for the cost and he will greatly exceed his cost/value again next year. Or he will get you something good in a trade but I just don't see that. I guess they could sign Schwarber and move Duggy back to right. Renfroe was an asset to the 2021 Red Sox. He had consistent power, got on base enough, and threw out a ton of runners. I like what he brought to the 2021 Red Sox. That said, I have a feeling (as if that's ever right)...that the Sox benefited at 3.1 million from his career year. I'd guess that he's capable of bashing another 30 homers, but that his batting average and OBP could dive 30 points or so. I don't think his defense in RF is that great. He's not exactly a rangy RF and if Fenway you kind of need a second CF in RF. While he has a cannon for an arm, way too many times he was showing off his arm, zipping erratic throws or making bad decisions, trying to throw out runners he shouldn't be trying to throw out and letting other baserunners advance, missing cutoff men, etc. The Sox could put Verdugo in RF and probably get as good a defense although I think it's possible that after being spoiled by Mookie in RF, that anybody in RF is just a huge notch below defensively. I'm old enough to remember Dwight Evans and his golden arm but I saw the second half of his career when his bat was HOF caliber but his defense wasn't as great as it had been during the first half of his career. I just don't see Renfroe or even Verdugo anywhere near that with the glove. If the Sox could get something of serious value for Renfroe I'd think they would have to explore that. My guess is that other teams know what Renfroe's strengths and weaknesses are and the Sox probably wouldn't get the haul worth enough for them to make a deal.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 29, 2021 19:25:48 GMT -5
Hahahahaha OK OK LOL Just for the fun of it. I have battled on here way too much in support of the year that Hunter Renfroe had for the Sox. Some here have even questioned whether he deserved a full time job in right or not. It has been an endless battle with at least half the board, on and on. Now I'm not going to argue that he will win any award nor does he deserve to. BUT being named a finalist for both Silver Slugger and Gold Glove should at the least put to bed whether he was good or didn't deserve the job in RF. I live in the San Diego area where he played and given enough at bats I knew he would hit 30+ HRs, and SD is a hard park to hits them out. I predict no on the Gold Glove and more likely on the Silver bat.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 29, 2021 19:32:12 GMT -5
Hahahahaha OK OK LOL Just for the fun of it. I have battled on here way too much in support of the year that Hunter Renfroe had for the Sox. Some here have even questioned whether he deserved a full time job in right or not. It has been an endless battle with at least half the board, on and on. Now I'm not going to argue that he will win any award nor does he deserve to. BUT being named a finalist for both Silver Slugger and Gold Glove should at the least put to bed whether he was good or didn't deserve the job in RF. I live in the San Diego area where he played and given enough at bats I knew he would hit 30+ HRs, and SD is a hard park to hits them out. I predict no on the Gold Glove and more likely on the Silver bat. Good for you living in the San Diego area, beautiful in so many ways. I don't expect he will any awards but just being nominated is enough to know he is a good player.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 29, 2021 21:47:32 GMT -5
I live in the San Diego area where he played and given enough at bats I knew he would hit 30+ HRs, and SD is a hard park to hits them out. I predict no on the Gold Glove and more likely on the Silver bat. Good for you living in the San Diego area, beautiful in so many ways. I don't expect he will any awards but just being nominated is enough to know he is a good player. . Agree 1000 percent! Renfroe is a good player, not too expensive, and two more years of controllability. Bloom did very well this season!!!!!! No one should argue that.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 31, 2021 9:10:29 GMT -5
In regards to Renfroe I will just smile rather than get annoyed at the people who want to continue to minimize him every chance they get.
I will mention his OPS and someone will say well that diminishes the fact his OBP wasn't good and is too slugging % heavy. I will mention his nominations to GG and SS and someone will point at others who are finalists as a way to down play that. I mention he talks about the adjustment he made in his approach at the plate and people just want to think he had a career year and didn't actually learn anything and truly improve. People will still call him average or even below average when he was clearly well above average this season.
We will all see next year.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 31, 2021 9:20:26 GMT -5
In regards to Renfroe I will just smile rather than get annoyed at the people who want to continue to minimize him every chance they get. I will mention his OPS and someone will say well that diminishes the fact his OBP wasn't good and is too slugging % heavy. I will mention his nominations to GG and SS and someone will point at others who are finalists as a way to down play that. I mention he talks about the adjustment he made in his approach at the plate and people just want to think he had a career year and didn't actually learn anything and truly improve. People will still call him average or even below average when he was clearly well above average this season. We will all see next year. But you're arguing against the stats when you say he was "clearly well above average this season." What is your basis for saying that?
The OBP thing is like a real and meaningful point that can't just be hand-waved away. The GG and SS thing is just sort of silly. The change in approach, on the other hand, is a good argument! But I've seen this mentioned a number of times without anyone explaining what, exactly, changed in his approach. It is interesting that he seemed to do much better against righties, in particular, as the season went on...
I just feel like, more often than not, when some guy improves and is touted as having a "new approach," they just end up regressing toward their career norms in the end. Maybe that's because the league adjusts to the new approach. In any case, I'm open to the argument that Renfroe really has found another level. It's not like that never happens.
ADD: And though I've said it several times before... An average right fielder for $3 million was a great get by Bloom, and Renfroe clearly helped the team this season!
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 31, 2021 9:54:00 GMT -5
In regards to Renfroe I will just smile rather than get annoyed at the people who want to continue to minimize him every chance they get. I will mention his OPS and someone will say well that diminishes the fact his OBP wasn't good and is too slugging % heavy. I will mention his nominations to GG and SS and someone will point at others who are finalists as a way to down play that. I mention he talks about the adjustment he made in his approach at the plate and people just want to think he had a career year and didn't actually learn anything and truly improve. People will still call him average or even below average when he was clearly well above average this season. We will all see next year. But you're arguing against the stats when you say he was "clearly well above average this season." What is your basis for saying that?
The OBP thing is like a real and meaningful point that can't just be hand-waved away. The GG and SS thing is just sort of silly. The change in approach, on the other hand, is a good argument! But I've seen this mentioned a number of times without anyone explaining what, exactly, changed in his approach. It is interesting that he seemed to do much better against righties, in particular, as the season went on...
I just feel like, more often than not, when some guy improves and is touted as having a "new approach," they just end up regressing toward their career norms in the end. Maybe that's because the league adjusts to the new approach. In any case, I'm open to the argument that Renfroe really has found another level. It's not like that never happens.
ADD: And though I've said it several times before... An average right fielder for $3 million was a great get by Bloom, and Renfroe clearly helped the team this season!
Basis for above average. League average OPS .728 Renroe .816, Number 14 in all of baseball on percentage of barreled ball contact, 89 runs scored, 96 RBi, 31 hrs, 16 assists MLB leader. If those stats don't scream above ave. I don't know what to tell you other than 25 teams in baseball would love to have him in their OF. And all of that led to both SS and GG finalist awards, regardless of who else was nominated that is not a average player. In regards to OBP he was league average so trying to diminish his very good OPS by saying his OBP sucked is plain false, it was league average. And given his OPS was .619 on 5/25 and went as high as .829 on 10/1 just goes to show how improved he was from that point on, out pacing JD from that point in the season. His approach developed with him going up the middle more and doing what the Sox preach, shrinking the strike zone and swinging at your pitch. I fail to see how that is arguing against the stats unless you want to spend the rest of your morning finding holes in those stats to prove your opinion that he is just an average to below average player. Good luck with that. I mean you are the guy who stated that GMs don't look at runs scored or produced as stats anymore.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 31, 2021 10:21:03 GMT -5
April through September per month .485 .938 .884 .650 1.037 .794 his career average splits .675 .921 .835 .694 .774 .819 Also his OPS+ per year 213, 96, 120, 103, 79 and 112. I think those tell a little different story. Instead of comparing his 2021 numbers to his career numbers, I'd be interested to see his 2021 compared to his pre-2021 numbers. 2021 was about 1/4 of his total career games, so it'll have a fair impact on his career totals. Pre-2021: .228/.290/.486, 103 wRC+ 2021: .259/.315/.501, 114 wRC+
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Post by notstarboard on Oct 31, 2021 10:32:25 GMT -5
Instead of comparing his 2021 numbers to his career numbers, I'd be interested to see his 2021 compared to his pre-2021 numbers. 2021 was about 1/4 of his total career games, so it'll have a fair impact on his career totals. Pre-2021: .228/.290/.486, 103 wRC+ 2021: .259/.315/.501, 114 wRC+
That's helpful, thanks! I was thinking about his month-by-month splits, though - umassgrad was trying to show that a rough April is normal for Renfroe, and therefore that we shouldn't expect him to be the late-2021 Renfroe out of the gate next year. Sample size is an issue when we're talking about one month in one year, but I'm still curious how well his 2021 monthly splits line up with his pre-2021 monthly splits.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 31, 2021 10:39:04 GMT -5
Pre-2021: .228/.290/.486, 103 wRC+ 2021: .259/.315/.501, 114 wRC+
That's helpful, thanks! I was thinking about his month-by-month splits, though - umassgrad was trying to show that a rough April is normal for Renfroe, and therefore that we shouldn't expect him to be the late-2021 Renfroe out of the gate next year. Sample size is an issue when we're talking about one month in one year, but I'm still curious how well his 2021 monthly splits line up with his pre-2021 monthly splits. Pre-2021:
Mar/Apr: 87 wRC+ May: 136 June: 113 July: 84 Aug: 87 Sep/Oct: 118
2021:
29 147 136 71 169 110
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Post by notstarboard on Oct 31, 2021 10:46:02 GMT -5
That's helpful, thanks! I was thinking about his month-by-month splits, though - umassgrad was trying to show that a rough April is normal for Renfroe, and therefore that we shouldn't expect him to be the late-2021 Renfroe out of the gate next year. Sample size is an issue when we're talking about one month in one year, but I'm still curious how well his 2021 monthly splits line up with his pre-2021 monthly splits. Pre-2021:
Mar/Apr: 87 wRC+ May: 136 June: 113 July: 84 Aug: 87 Sep/Oct: 118
2021:
29 147 136 71 169 110
Thanks! Seems to me that he always starts a bit slow, but he was bad enough in April this year that it was clearly an outlier. I'm still thinking he has a fair chance of topping his 2021 offensive season in 2022. The good news is he doesn't need to be that good to be valuable, though! An encore would still be great at his likely salary.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 31, 2021 20:10:11 GMT -5
Pre-2021: .228/.290/.486, 103 wRC+ 2021: .259/.315/.501, 114 wRC+
That's helpful, thanks! I was thinking about his month-by-month splits, though - umassgrad was trying to show that a rough April is normal for Renfroe, and therefore that we shouldn't expect him to be the late-2021 Renfroe out of the gate next year. Sample size is an issue when we're talking about one month in one year, but I'm still curious how well his 2021 monthly splits line up with his pre-2021 monthly splits. It was simply to show he's up and down like most players. It's like saying Jackie Bradley would be crazy awesome if we could just eliminate the cold streaks. Crazy crap happens, I wouldn't bet on it though. Like you said in the other post, if we get similar production we'd be lucky.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 1, 2021 9:42:02 GMT -5
That's helpful, thanks! I was thinking about his month-by-month splits, though - umassgrad was trying to show that a rough April is normal for Renfroe, and therefore that we shouldn't expect him to be the late-2021 Renfroe out of the gate next year. Sample size is an issue when we're talking about one month in one year, but I'm still curious how well his 2021 monthly splits line up with his pre-2021 monthly splits. It was simply to show he's up and down like most players. It's like saying Jackie Bradley would be crazy awesome if we could just eliminate the cold streaks. Crazy crap happens, I wouldn't bet on it though. Like you said in the other post, if we get similar production we'd be lucky. Fair point. Hopefully Renfroe's able to stay consistent and avoid JBJ-esque stretches like the beginning of 2021, but I suppose only time will tell!
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