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Post by notnickyorke on Nov 16, 2021 1:20:19 GMT -5
I don't think anyone would feel super comfortable go into 2022 with Arroyo or Duran as the starter at 2nd or CF, but they both have played well enough or have enough upside where it would be nice for both to get a shot at regular playing time. They both need a chance to prove they can handle a larger role, while also not leaving the team handicapped if they falter. Luckily the Red Sox already have Kiki Hernandez who is capable of playing both positions at an average or above average level defensively. Hernandez is also coming off the type of season where you can't expect him to accept reduced playing time, he has shown he is a full time player. Ideally a split where Duran and Arroyo each get around 400 plate appearances and Hernandez gets 550 to 600. The extra plate appearance could be taken from the corner outfield spots to rest Verdugo and Renfroe against bad matchups. For reference, Dalbec got just over 450 PA and was left over exposed in the 1st half when he was struggling. The goal would be to not have that happen to Duran in his first full season and also protect against Arroyo's colorful injury history. Having a modified platoon for the three players would also hopefully allow them to be used mostly in situations where they are in favorable matchups. Maybe one gets lucky and lives up to their potential of being an above average regulars and the platoon can be adjusted. It doesn't seem crazy to think one of them could provide a 3 WAR season next year. I know its not as flashy as a Correa or Seager addition, but it also wouldn't require further investment of resources that could be used to fill out the rotation and bullpen.
3.7 PA/game
x162 games
600ish plate appearances per position
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 16, 2021 10:44:24 GMT -5
I like the thinking but my general feeling, in 2022 and with this FO, is that planning around having most of the 2021 roster back is hazardous. One of ownership's reported reasons for moving on from DD was that he kept too much of the 2018 roster -- a historic team, no less -- intact in 2019, resulting in what they considered to be an unacceptable downturn.
That said, I think KH has proven that he belongs in the lineup every day that he's available, regardless of where he plays (I prefer him in CF or RF). His positional flexibility is surely a big reason why Chaim targeted him last off-season (along with Marwin and Santana), to enable this kind of tinkering, and it's why everyone expects the Sox to bid for Chris Taylor this winter. However, I don't think Arroyo and Duran earned nearly as much, especially not Duran.
Arroyo's defense has earned him a shot at more ABs but his plate discipline will need to improve (career 25% K/6% BB and bigger gap in 2021) if he's going to take the next step toward a regular role. And obviously he has to stay healthy.
Meanwhile, Duran hasn't proven anything more than he can uppercut AAA pitching way out of Polar Park. Only one AAA season so far but in 93 games (45 home, 48 road), his home/road splits are remarkable and not necessarily in a good way. He was also totally lost at the plate in a Boston uniform (I'm still trying to un-see that hideous hands-apart batting grip he used for multiple games) and is below-average in CF, so I'm going to pump the brakes on any firm plans for him to be on the big league roster in 2022 when everyone is healthy. He could also stand to improve his plate discipline, particularly with more walks, considering his wheels. Yes, I want him to get more opportunities and expect something on the order of the 107 ABs he got in 2021 as a fill-in but I'm not ready to design any platoons around him. I love his upside but I'm not terribly confident (30%?) that he ever becomes a big-league regular.
Ultimately, I think roster movement this winter is more likely to throw obstacles in Arroyo's and Duran's paths to more playing time with BOS (i.e. guys will be signed/traded for at their positions or they'll be traded), as opposed to creating semi-regular platoon roles for them. If they're still in the org in 2022, I will be pretty surprised if Duran makes the OD roster, while I would expect Arroyo to start the season as the UT.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 16, 2021 10:51:56 GMT -5
UJ, I think you bring up a good point about Duran. I am wondering if the power "surge" he discovered in Worcester was actually the WORST thing for his development. It may have gotten him focused on power headed into the Fenway RF cavern, when he should have been thinking more about making fullest use of his best tool.
In that same regard, I'm concerned about Jeter Downs' power surge this fall? Could he fall into the same trap of thinking more about becoming a power threat rather than a good hitter?
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 10:57:40 GMT -5
I like the thinking but my general feeling, in 2022 and with this FO, is that planning around having most of the 2021 roster back is hazardous. One of ownership's reported reasons for moving on from DD was that he kept too much of the 2018 roster -- a historic team, no less -- intact in 2019, resulting in what they considered to be an unacceptable downturn. That said, I think KH has proven that he belongs in the lineup every day that he's available, regardless of where he plays (I prefer him in CF or RF). His positional flexibility is surely a big reason why Chaim targeted him last off-season (along with Marwin and Santana), to enable this kind of tinkering, and it's why everyone expects the Sox to bid for Chris Taylor this winter. However, I don't think Arroyo and Duran earned nearly as much, especially not Duran. Arroyo's defense has earned him a shot at more ABs but his plate discipline will need to improve (career 25% K/6% BB and bigger gap in 2021) if he's going to take the next step toward a regular role. And obviously he has to stay healthy. Meanwhile, Duran hasn't proven anything more than he can uppercut AAA pitching way out of Polar Park. Only one AAA season so far but in 93 games (45 home, 48 road), his home/road splits are remarkable and not necessarily in a good way. He was also totally lost at the plate in a Boston uniform (I'm still trying to un-see that hideous hands-apart batting grip he used for multiple games) and is below-average in CF, so I'm going to pump the brakes on any firm plans for him to be on the big league roster in 2022 when everyone is healthy. He could also stand to improve his plate discipline, particularly with more walks, considering his wheels. Yes, I want him to get more opportunities and expect something on the order of the 107 ABs he got in 2021 as a fill-in but I'm not ready to design any platoons around him. I love his upside but I'm not terribly confident (30%?) that he ever becomes a big-league regular. Ultimately, I think roster movement this winter is more likely to throw obstacles in Arroyo's and Duran's paths to more playing time with BOS (i.e. guys will be signed/traded for at their positions or they'll be traded), as opposed to creating semi-regular platoon roles for them. If they're still in the org in 2022, I will be pretty surprised if Duran makes the OD roster, while I would expect Arroyo to start the season as the UT. For all the reasons you state about Duran it is why I look at him as a good trade piece to a team that can afford to let him get the ABs and playing time to develop, like the A's or Marlins. We all saw how hard it was to watch Dalbec develop/struggle this year in a season with low expectations. How hard would it be on a team with high expectations? Duran just looks to me like someone who isn't going to be very good in the short run. Maybe if he displayed really good D in CF you can give him some rope but between bad D and ABs how do they work him in. Include him in a trade along with someone else to land someone like Mannea. On the other hand I think Arroyo showed enough to be optimistic about his future value if he can just stay on the field. Do all these ticky tacky injuries mean something or was it just bad luck? |
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